MOODY S ANALYTICS
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India to buck APAC slowdown despite oil, trade and El Nino risks: Moody's Analytics
India's economy is projected to grow strongly in the Asia-Pacific region. Higher oil prices and global slowdown pose significant risks to this outlook. El Nino presents a dual threat of food and energy vulnerability for the nation. AI-driven investments will support regional growth before gradually weakening. Policymakers must balance inflation risks with sustaining economic activity.
Oil prices, weak monsoon pose biggest risks to India's FY27 GDP growth, says IMF
India's economic growth faces significant risks from a widening Middle East conflict. Rising oil prices and a potentially weak monsoon pose challenges for the nation. The International Monetary Fund has slightly adjusted its growth forecasts for upcoming years. The Fund will also reassess India's national accounts quality later this year. These assessments follow concerns raised about the country's statistical methods.
As defaults on student loans surge, millions are trying to get their lives back on track
Millions of Americans face student loan defaults after pandemic relief ended. Borrowers like Ashley Dreahn and Barbara Howaniec struggle with rising debt. Changes to income-driven repayment plans increase monthly payment burdens for many. The federal government can garnish wages and Social Security payments from defaulters. This situation creates widespread despair and financial hardship across the nation.
Deloitte projects 6.5-6.8% GDP expansion in FY27, growth to strengthen in second half
Deloitte India on Sunday projected India's economy to grow between 6.5% and 6.8% in the current financial year, with momentum expected to pick up in the second half of FY27. The firm said growth would be supported by stronger festive demand, monetary easing and a gradual stabilisation in global economic conditions.
China's oil fortress will reshape the global order
China shielded itself from the Iran war's energy shock by cutting crude imports and restricting fuel exports. This move demonstrated its capacity to manage global energy flows independently. The nation's substantial oil stockpiles remain largely untapped, offering future strategic options. China's actions transformed it from a price taker to a price maker in oil markets. This shift indicates a new era of energy interdependence and potential global power dynamics.
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AI-boom fuels 'K' shaped global economic growth: Moody's Analytics
The global economy shows K-shaped growth as artificial intelligence advances some sectors. Moody's Analytics predicts a slowdown to 2.5 percent in 2026. AI demand has prevented a sharper economic downturn globally. Geopolitical risks and market volatility could lead to recession. Economies and industries not benefiting from AI have struggled.
Global growth set to slow to 2.5% and India 'will lose a step too': Moody's Analytics
Moody's Analytics expects global growth to slow to 2.5% in 2026, saying India too "will lose a step" amid a broader moderation in activity. The report said the AI boom has prevented a steeper downturn but warned that geopolitical tensions, trade frictions and inflation continue to pose downside risks to the global economy.
US job cuts: Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi sees 'big warning' signs in June data. Here's why he's worried about the labour market
Economists question the strength of the June US jobs report. Mark Zandi notes falling labor force participation drove the unemployment rate down. Household survey data shows a continued decline in employed individuals. An adjusted unemployment rate now exceeds five percent according to Zandi. Other economists also express concerns about the labor market's true condition.
India's growth story not recognised by global rating agencies: Piyush Goyal
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has publicly questioned the fairness of global credit rating agencies like S&P, Moody's, and Fitch, stating they haven't accurately reflected India's robust economic growth and strong fundamentals. He highlighted that weaker economies often receive higher ratings, urging for an open debate to ensure equitable assessments and called upon Indian businesses to boost exports and manufacturing quality.
India emerging as prime destination for data centre projects, chip manufacturing: Report
Moody’s Analytics reports that AI investments are surging globally, with India, Singapore, and Malaysia emerging as top destinations for data centers and chip manufacturing. Despite slowing global trade, strong AI demand drives capital flows, with US tech firms expanding abroad to meet supply gaps and tap supportive Asian markets.
Who is Mark Zandi, the Iranian-American Moody's chief economist whom Donald Trump accuses of downgrading the U.S. credit rating to Aa1?
Following Moody's Ratings' downgrade of the US credit rating, Donald Trump's team has targeted Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, for blame. Trump's spokesman, Steven Cheung, dismissed Zandi's economic analysis, citing his history of criticism towards the administration's policies. Moody's cited rising government debt as the reason for the downgrade.
India & China inflation readings are worlds apart, India is playing catch-up after Covid: Moody's Analytics
Moody's Analytics reports contrasting retail inflation outlooks for India and China, with China experiencing minimal inflation due to demand shortages and falling pork prices, while India's inflation remains around 5%, nearing the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band. India's recovery from the pandemic-induced economic downturn is slow, with output still 4% lower than pre-pandemic levels.
Baltimore bridge collapse may impact supply chains in APAC region, says Moody's Analytics
The collapse of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge may impact trade in the Asia-Pacific region, according to Moody's Analytics. The incident, which involved a container ship colliding with the world's third-longest truss bridge, is expected to have a significant impact on the automotive sector and coal markets.
Currency risks a concern for India: Moody’s Analytics
Affirming that the outlook for emerging markets will hold even amidst the US banking storm, Moody’s Analytics said that while India would continue to grow owing to pent-up demand, “further currency weakness could put the region’s central banks in a bind.”
Omicron adds new uncertainties to global economic outlook: Moody's Analytics
In its commentary titled 'Much to Learn About OmicronFast’, Moody’s Analytics said although the variant appears to spread ”remarkably quickly”, it will be at least two more weeks before more will be known about this new variant.
Covid 2nd wave to have more lasting damage on Indian economy, exports key for recovery: Moody’s Analytics
In its report titled ‘APAC Economic Outlook: The Delta Roadblock’, it said that social distancing is weighing on the current quarter but economic recovery will resume by the year-end.
COVID 2nd wave may have more lasting damage on economy, exports to drive recovery: Moody's Analytics
The Delta variant of COVID-19 is among factors now adversely affecting economies of the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, but the economic hit from the current round of movement restrictions in the region will not be as severe as the recessions in the second quarter of last year.
India, China set to lead vaccine distribution in APAC region: Moody's Analytics
Moody's Analytics said the Indian government plans to inoculate nearly 300 million high-priority people, including health workers, the elderly, and those with higher comorbidities by August.
Moody's Analytics stands by its India report, says it is part of economic outlook series
Moody's Analytics today stood by its report that had asked Prime Minister Narendra Modi to keep BJP members in check or risk losing global credibility.
Government dismisses Moody's report; calls it opinion of junior analyst
The government has said it is distressed that the personal opinion of a junior analyst working with Moody's Analytics has been passed off as commentary.
Government dismisses Moody's report, calls it opinion of junior analyst
Moody’s Analytics is the economic research and analysis division of Moody’s Corporation, which also owns Moody’s Investor Services.
Indian economy to grow at 7.3% in 2015: Moody's Analytics
Indian economy is expected to grow marginally higher at 7.3 per cent during the year compared with 7.2 per cent in 2014, said a group company of global rating agency Moody's.
Moody's Analytics sees no economic recovery in second half
Moody's Analytics is the economic research division of Moody's Corporation and does not reflect the opinions of Moody's Investors Services.
Moody’s, Genpact eye Amba Research, may bid $90-100 million
Global credit rating agency Moody’s Corporation is seen vying with outsourcing firm Genpact in bidding for investment research and analytics company Amba Research.
Indian economy is facing stagflation: Moody's
Moody's said the economy is in stagflation, where growth is slow & inflation high, and cautioned that RBI cant be too aggressive in cutting interest rates.
Games fiasco may hit Brand India, says Moody's
Confidence in India's infra, capacity to organise events, have been brought into question.
'Likelihood of US slipping back into recession rises'
Chief economist at Moody’s Analytics said the likelihood of US slipping back into a recession is now 33%, up from a 20% chance.
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