Colombia's President Gustavo Petro has mounted an unprecedented challenge to US President Donald Trump’s hawkish immigration policy, setting off a now-resolved diplomatic crisis whose fallout threatens to upend the longstanding alliance between the two nations.

The dispute erupted on January 26 after the US began using military aircraft to deport Colombian migrants without following established diplomatic protocols. Petro's impromptu response – a pledge to deport more than 15,000 US citizens allegedly residing illegally in Colombia – heralds a dramatic shift in bilateral relations that has sent shockwaves through Latin America.

"Colombia is not a subordinate," declared Petro, directly confronting the newly inaugurated president's hardline immigration stance. The leftist leader's defiance resonates with a broader popular sentiment that “the US needs Colombia more than Colombia needs the US,” stemming from decades of asymmetric relations between Washington and Bogotá.

The confrontation quickly escalated when both sides threatened retaliatory tariffs – Trump proposing a 25 per cent levy on Colombian goods, while Petro countered with a 50 per cent tariff on US imports. Though both measures are currently on hold, the 24-hour deadlock has exposed deep fissures in a relationship long considered one of Washington's most stable partnerships in the region.

Trade between the two nations remains substantial and mutually vital. The US accounts for 25.8 per cent of Colombia's exports, with coffee alone valued at $1.2bn of the $14.11bn total in 2023. US exports to Colombia reached $16.96bn in the same period, representing 26.4 per cent of Colombia's imports. Key US exports include petroleum products, corn, chemicals, and machinery, while Colombia's primary exports to the US are coffee, cut flowers, bananas, and gold.

The White House claimed victory when Colombia agreed to accept deportation flights, stating that Petro had accepted "unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on US military aircraft." However, according to local media reports, the reality appears more nuanced. Petro has insisted on strict protocols and dignified treatment of deportees, going as far as guaranteeing the use of Colombia's presidential aircraft for migrant repatriation.

The standoff has even produced unusual political alignments within Colombia. But while lawmakers across the spectrum united in opposition to Trump's approach, they remain split over Petro's handling of the crisis. Former right-wing president Iván Duque called Petro's rejection of deportation flights "tremendously irresponsible," while centrist Juan Manuel Santos advocated for dialogue, reflecting broader tensions over Colombia's diplomatic positioning.

The dispute has brought to light long-simmering grievances among the general public, underpinned by decades of resentment over perceived exploitation and US political interference. In recent years, Petro's administration has effectively seized upon this narrative, calling for financial reparations and a fairer redistribution of resources. Until now, Washington met these demands by allocating generous funding through USAID – an assistance programme the new administration has now put on ice for most countries.

But Trump’s erratic policymaking risks awakening anti-US sentiment in the region, with analysts suggesting the confrontation could accelerate Colombia's pivot towards alternative partnerships. To this end, Bogota has been strengthening ties with the BRICS nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, plus a handful of new emerging countries that joined last year — as it seeks to reduce dependence on the US. This strategic diversification includes fostering closer relations with European partners and Asian economies.

All in all, the latest clash points to a broader trend in "America's backyard", where nations increasingly assert autonomy from historical US influence under the infamous Monroe Doctrine. While Trump's aggressive diplomacy may have secured immediate compliance on deportations, it risks diminishing US regional influence in the longer term, pushing countries into the arms of rivals such as Russia and, most importantly, China.

For Colombia, which has historically aligned closely with Washington, the crisis represents a watershed moment. 

"Our dignity is non-negotiable," Petro stated, articulating a sentiment that resonates across the continent. As emerging countries seek greater strategic flexibility in an increasingly multipolar world, the episode serves as a cautionary tale about the limits of coercive diplomacy – even when viewed through a transactional prism. While the immediate crisis may subside, and Trump appears the winner at first glance, the long-term implications for the already flagging US influence in Latin America could be profound.