2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
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| Elections in New Hampshire |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.
A rural New England state with a libertarian streak dominated by moderate voters, New Hampshire had backed Republicans in most presidential elections since the party's formation up until 1988, except for Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936, 1940 and 1944; and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Since the early 1990s, however, the state has begun to lean toward the Democrats at the federal level, with Democrats carrying the state by single digits in every presidential election since 1992 with the exception of George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2000.
New Hampshire was considered a potential battleground state due to the closeness of the 2016 election and a concurrent gubernatorial election that was expected to be competitive. However, the state has shown a much more pronounced Democratic lean at the federal level in recent years, as New Hampshire's congressional delegation, which is currently all Democrats, won reelection by comfortable margins in the 2022 House and Senate elections in spite of the national Republican advantage that year. As such, most news organizations generally considered the state to be leaning toward Kamala Harris in 2024 by a similar margin as Joe Biden in 2020.
However, on election night, New Hampshire was seriously contested by both candidates, and was one of the last states called in favor of Kamala Harris.[1] Harris won the state by about 2.8%, a significantly lower margin than Biden in 2020, though better than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Of all the states Harris won, New Hampshire ended up being her worst performance. New Hampshire had the closest presidential race out of any state in terms of the margin of raw votes, although the state closest in difference of percentage was Wisconsin.
Primary elections
[edit]New Hampshire has held the famous "first-in-the-nation" primary since 1920. Delegates are elected separately from a non-binding poll, which dates from 1952. Candidates qualify by presenting a check for $1000 to the Secretary of State's office by a certain date.
Primary elections for both the Democratic and Republican parties were held on January 23, 2024.[2]
Democratic primary
[edit]On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, in which the South Carolina Democratic primary would be held first on February 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on February 6. New Hampshire Republican governor Chris Sununu, Democratic senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, and the state legislature vowed to continue holding the "first-in-the-nation" primary (as New Hampshire state law establishes)[3] and ultimately did set an earlier date of January 23.[2][4][5]
Showing solidarity with the DNC, Biden declined to appear on the state's primary ballot.[6] Pro-Biden New Hampshire Democrats nevertheless launched a formal write-in campaign for him, but none of the state's delegates to the Democratic National Convention will still be binding.[7]
Biden
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden (incumbent; write-in) | 79,100 | 63.8% |
| Dean Phillips | 24,377 | 19.7% |
| Marianne Williamson | 5,016 | 4.0% |
| Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican) | 4,760 | 3.8% |
| Donald Trump (write-in) (Republican) | 2,079 | 1.7% |
| Derek Nadeau | 1,616 | 1.3% |
| "Ceasefire" (write-in)[9] | 1,512 | 1.2% |
| Vermin Supreme | 912 | 0.7% |
| John Vail | 685 | 0.6% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent) | 439 | 0.4% |
| Donald Picard | 371 | 0.3% |
| Paperboy Prince | 326 | 0.3% |
| Paul V. LaCava | 176 | 0.1% |
| Jason Michael Palmer | 142 | 0.1% |
| President R. Boddie | 136 | 0.1% |
| Mark Stewart Greenstein | 133 | 0.1% |
| Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent) | 125 | 0.1% |
| Terrisa Bukovinac | 101 | <0.1% |
| Gabriel Cornejo | 86 | <0.1% |
| Stephen P. Lyons | 80 | <0.1% |
| Frankie Lozada | 73 | <0.1% |
| Tom Koos | 71 | <0.1% |
| Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato | 68 | <0.1% |
| Star Locke | 59 | <0.1% |
| Raymond Michael Moroz | 52 | <0.1% |
| Eban Cambridge | 47 | <0.1% |
| Chris Christie (write-in) (Republican) | 41 | <0.1% |
| Richard Rist | 37 | <0.1% |
| Ron DeSantis (write-in) (Republican) | 33 | <0.1% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (write-in) (Republican) | 2 | <0.1% |
| Other write-ins, reported as "scatter". | 1,341 | 1.1% |
| Total: | 123,996 | 100.00% |
No delegates were awarded from the January New Hampshire primary.
Republican primary
[edit]The New Hampshire Republican primary was held on January 23, 2024, as the second contest of the Republican primaries, held about a week after the Iowa caucuses. 22 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the statewide vote. The primary was won by Donald Trump, defeating Nikki Haley by eleven points.
Trump
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Haley
- 50–60%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegate count[12] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 176,391 | 54.35% | 13 |
| Nikki Haley | 140,491 | 43.28% | 9 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 2,241 | 0.69% | |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,493 | 0.46% | |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 833 | 0.26% | |
| Joe Biden (Write-In) (Democrat) | 497 | 0.15% | |
| Mike Pence (withdrawn) | 404 | 0.12% | |
| Ryan Binkley | 315 | 0.10% | |
| Mary Maxwell | 287 | 0.09% | |
| Robert F. Kennedy (Write-In) (Independent) | 205 | 0.06% | |
| Tim Scott (withdrawn) | 196 | 0.06% | |
| Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 180 | 0.06% | |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 108 | 0.03% | |
| Rachel Swift | 105 | 0.03% | |
| Scott Ayers | 80 | 0.02% | |
| Dean Phillips (Write-In) (Democrat) | 79 | 0.02% | |
| Darius Mitchell | 74 | 0.02% | |
| Glenn McPeters | 49 | 0.02% | |
| "Ceasefire" (Write-In) | 34 | 0.01% | |
| Perry Johnson (withdrawn) | 26 | 0.01% | |
| Peter Jedick | 25 | 0.01% | |
| David Stuckenberg | 25 | 0.01% | |
| Donald Kjornes | 23 | 0.01% | |
| Scott Merrell | 21 | 0.01% | |
| John Anthony Castro | 19 | 0.01% | |
| Robert Carney | 15 | <0.01% | |
| Marianne Williamson (Write-In) (Democrat) | 14 | <0.01% | |
| Hirsh Singh (withdrawn) | 9 | <0.01% | |
| Sam Sloan | 7 | <0.01% | |
| Vermin Supreme (Write-In) (Democrat) | 3 | <0.01% | |
| Mark Steward Greenstein (Write-In) (Democrat) | 1 | <0.01% | |
| Other write-in votes | 325 | 0.10% | |
| Total: | 324,575 | 100.00% | 22 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[13] | Likely D | August 27, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[14] | Lean D | May 8, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Likely D | August 20, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16] | Likely D | November 5, 2024 |
| CNalysis[17] | Solid D | November 4, 2024 |
| CNN[18] | Lean D | August 27, 2024 |
| The Economist[19] | Likely D | October 21, 2024 |
| 538[20] | Likely D | September 12, 2024 |
| YouGov[21] | Safe D | November 1, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[22] | Likely D | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin[23] | October 24 – November 3, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 50.5% | 45.5% | 4.0% | Harris +5.0% |
| 538[24] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.3% | 45.4% | 4.3% | Harris +4.9% |
| Silver Bulletin[25] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.9% | 46.3% | 2.8% | Harris +4.6% |
| The Hill/DDHQ[26] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 53.3% | 42.5% | 4.2% | Harris +10.8% |
| Average | 51.3% | 44.9% | 3.8% | Harris +6.4% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dartmouth College[27] | November 1–3, 2024 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 62% | 34% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[28][A] | October 24–28, 2024 | 901 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 5%[c] |
| Praecones Analytica/NHJournal[29] | October 24–26, 2024 | 622 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
| CES/YouGov[30] | October 1–25, 2024 | 380 (A) | – | 52% | 45% | 3% |
| 375 (LV) | 52% | 45% | 3% | |||
| Emerson College[31][B] | October 21–23, 2024 | 915 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 47% | 3%[d] |
| 51%[e] | 47% | 2%[d] | ||||
| Dartmouth College[32] | October 5–18, 2024 | 2,211 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 59% | 38% | 3% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| University of New Hampshire[33] | August 15–19, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 52% | 47% | 1% |
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Emerson College[34] | July 26–28, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 52%[e] | 48% | – | ||||
| University of New Hampshire[35] | July 23–25, 2024 | 2,875 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 53% | 46% | 1% |
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[36] | December 10–12, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[37] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 2,814 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 51% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 2%[f] |
| Saint Anselm College[38] | October 28–29, 2024 | 2,791 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 46% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2%[g] |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[39] | October 10–23, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 43% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[40] | October 2–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 41% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Saint Anselm College[41] | October 1–2, 2024 | 2,104 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 51% | 44% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3%[g] |
| University of New Hampshire[42] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,695 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 54% | 43% | – | 0% | 1% | 2%[f] |
| Saint Anselm College[43] | September 11–12, 2024 | 2,241 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 51% | 43% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[33] | August 15–19, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 50% | 43% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 3%[f] |
| Emerson College[34] | July 26–28, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 41% | 6% | 0% | 1% | – | 4% |
| Saint Anselm College[44] | July 24–25, 2024 | 2,083 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 50% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[35] | July 23–25, 2024 | 2,875 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 49% | 43% | 4% | 8% |
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | |||||||
| Praecones Analytica/NHJournal[45] | July 19–21, 2024 | 601 (V) | – | 39% | 40% | 21% | – |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[46] | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,140 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 48% | – |
| John Zogby Strategies[47][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 515 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Marist College[48] | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 45% | 3% |
| Emerson College[49] | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| University of New Hampshire/CNN[50] | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,108 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| Emerson College[51] | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[52] | July 5−11, 2023 | 895 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| Saint Anselm College[53] | June 21–23, 2023 | 1,065 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Emerson College[54] | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 38% | 20%[h] |
| co/efficient (R)[55][D] | January 25–26, 2023 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| Emerson College[56] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell[57] | October 14–25, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Emerson College[58] | October 18–19, 2022 | 727 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Emerson College[59] | September 14–15, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| University of New Hampshire[60] | June 16–20, 2022 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 43% | 8% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[36] | December 10–12, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Saint Anselm College[61][E] | May 7–10, 2021 | 1,267 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm College[62] | June 28–29, 2024 | 1,746 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 42% | 44% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| University of New Hampshire[46] | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,140 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 41% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
| Suffolk University/USA Today/Boston Globe[63] | January 3–7, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 14%[i] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Praecones Analytica/NHJournal[45] | July 19–21, 2024 | 601 (V) | – | 39% | 40% | 21% | – |
| Praecones Analytica/NHJournal[64] | May 15–20, 2024 | 862 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 37% | 37% | 15% | 11% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[65] | May 6–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 42% | 36% | 11% | 11% |
| Marist College[48] | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 41% | 12% | 3% |
| Saint Anselm College[66] | December 18–19, 2023 | 1,711 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 39% | 8% | 4% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[49] | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[51] | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 39% | 5% | 13% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[47][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 515 (LV) | – | 41% | 47% | 12% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[47][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 515 (LV) | – | 45% | 40% | 15% |
Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Bernie Sanders Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[49] | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Elizabeth Warren vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Elizabeth Warren Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[49] | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College[48] | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College[49] | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 45% | 16% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College[48] | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Emerson College[49] | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 38% | 16% |
| University of New Hampshire/CNN[50] | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,108 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 50% | 33% | 17%[j] |
| Saint Anselm College[53] | June 21–23, 2023 | 1,065 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11%[k] |
| Emerson College[54] | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 37% | 7%[l] |
| University of New Hampshire[60] | June 16–20, 2022 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Vivek Ramaswamy Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire/CNN[50] | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 20% | 31%[m] |
Joe Biden vs. Tim Scott
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Tim Scott Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire/CNN[50] | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 47% | 34% | 19%[n] |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[52] | July 5−11, 2023 | 895 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Chris Christie
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Chris Christie Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire/CNN[50] | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 44% | 20% | 36%[o] |
Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mike Pence Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire/CNN[50] | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 20% | 31%[p] |
Joe Biden vs. Chris Sununu
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Chris Sununu Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[54] | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 44% | 6%[l] |
| co/efficient (R)[55] | January 25–26, 2023 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 3.15% | 36% | 48% | 16% |
| Praecones Analytica/NHJournal[67] | April 14–16, 2022 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 36% | 53% | 12% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 418,488 | 50.65% | −2.13% | ||
| Republican | 395,523 | 47.87% | +2.45% | ||
| Libertarian | 4,425 | 0.54% | −1.10% | ||
| Green | 3,680 | 0.45% | +0.42% | ||
| Write-in | 4,073 | 0.49% | |||
| Total votes | 826,189 | 100.00% | |||
By county
[edit]| County | Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Belknap | 17,469 | 42.95% | 22,765 | 55.97% | 442 | 1.09% | -5,296 | -13.02% | 40,676 |
| Carroll | 16,822 | 48.54% | 17,426 | 50.28% | 410 | 1.18% | -604 | -1.74% | 34,658 |
| Cheshire | 24,579 | 54.15% | 20,083 | 44.25% | 727 | 1.60% | 4,496 | 9.90% | 45,389 |
| Coös | 7,367 | 42.53% | 9,734 | 56.19% | 221 | 1.28% | -2,367 | -13.66% | 17,322 |
| Grafton | 32,993 | 59.03% | 21,909 | 39.20% | 993 | 1.78% | 11,084 | 19.83% | 55,895 |
| Hillsborough | 118,776 | 50.66% | 112,057 | 47.80% | 3,607 | 1.54% | 6,719 | 2.86% | 234,440 |
| Merrimack | 48,181 | 51.82% | 43,364 | 46.64% | 1,433 | 1.54% | 4,817 | 5.18% | 92,978 |
| Rockingham | 97,611 | 48.10% | 102,539 | 50.53% | 2,772 | 1.37% | -4,928 | -2.43% | 202,922 |
| Strafford | 42,373 | 55.25% | 33,162 | 43.24% | 1,153 | 1.50% | 9,211 | 12.01% | 76,688 |
| Sullivan | 12,317 | 48.84% | 12,484 | 49.50% | 420 | 1.67% | -167 | -0.66% | 25,221 |
| Totals | 418,488 | 50.65% | 395,523 | 47.87% | 12,178 | 1.47% | 22,965 | 2.78% | 826,189 |
Town flips
[edit]Donald Trump flipped the following towns which voted for Joe Biden, was tied, or recorded no votes in 2020.[71][failed verification]
Acworth, Berlin, Claremont, Francestown, Freedom, Greenfield, Hart's Location, Jaffrey, Langdon, Littleton, Lyndeborough, Martin's Location, Nottingham, Pembroke, Shelburne, Springfield, Stratford, Sullivan, Swanzey, Tamworth, and Temple.
Kamala Harris flipped the following towns which voted for Donald Trump, was tied, or recorded no votes in 2020.[71][failed verification]
By congressional district
[edit]Harris won both congressional districts.[72][user-generated source]
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 50.25% | 48.33% | Chris Pappas |
| 2nd | 51.11% | 47.35% | Maggie Goodlander |
By county
[edit]
Analysis
[edit]A study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research in July 2024 found that New Hampshire is one of only three remaining states (along with Mississippi and Alabama) to offer no early in-person voting option for the 2024 general election. The state also requires an eligible reason to vote by mail.[73] By tradition, since 1960, all eligible voters of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire cast their votes at midnight on Election Day.
Harris suffered a setback, earning 2.35% of the vote less than Biden did in 2020. She ceded ground in every county across the state, while Trump flipped three counties: Carroll, Rockingham and Sullivan.[74] He nonetheless became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Hillsborough County since Richard Nixon in 1968, as well as the first Republican in general to win two terms in the White House without carrying New Hampshire at least once.
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in New Hampshire
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Other" with 3%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b c "Another candidate" with 1%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 16%
- ^ Joe Manchin (I) with 2%; Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
- ^ Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 5%
- ^ "Other" with 10%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 14%
- ^ Donald Trump with 9%; "Another candidate" with 6%
- ^ Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 4%
- ^ Donald Trump with 16%; "Another candidate" with 11%
- ^ Donald Trump with 15%; "Another candidate" with 10%
- ^ The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire released a statement acknowledging the nomination of Oliver by the national Libertarian Party, choosing to endorse Trump instead.[70]
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- ^ Poll sponsored by WHDH
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ Poll conducted for the New Hampshire Journal
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
References
[edit]- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
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- ^ O'Keefe, Ed; Novak, Analisa (February 3, 2023). "New Hampshire battles to retain first-in-the-nation presidential primary as DNC leaders meet to vote on possible changes". CBS News. Archived from the original on February 5, 2023. Retrieved February 5, 2023.
- ^ Kashinsky, Lisa; Garrity, Kelly (April 30, 2023). "Messing with New Hampshire's primary could have consequences for Biden and the ballot, senator says". Politico. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
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