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2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico

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For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 New Mexico Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
Turnout65.3% Increase
 
Nominee Martin Heinrich Nella Domenici
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 497,333 405,978
Percentage 55.06% 44.94%
County results
Heinrich:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Domenici:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Elections in New Mexico
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The 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico. Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican financier Nella Domenici.[1] Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024, with both Heinrich and Domenici winning their respective party's nomination unopposed.[2] Republicans had not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's late father Pete did so in 2002.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D) $9,067,125 $5,341,198 $4,380,901
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Results

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Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 122,961 100.0%
Total votes 122,961 100.0%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Disqualified

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Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nella Domenici (R) $1,525,766 $464,576 $1,061,190
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Results

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Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Nella Domenici 79,809 100.0%
Total votes 79,809 100.0%

Independents and third-party candidates

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Candidates

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Filed paperwork

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  • Cameron Chick (Independent), businessman[7]
  • Ben Luna (Independence Party), businessman[8]
  • Jerry Rose (Independent)[9]
  • Tom Wakely (Green)[10]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Solid D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[12] Solid D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Safe D November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] Safe D October 30, 2024
Elections Daily[15] Safe D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[16] Solid D November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[17] Lean D August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[18] Safe D October 30, 2024
538[19] Solid D October 23, 2024

Endorsements

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Martin Heinrich (D)
Organizations

Labor unions

Nella Domenici (R)
Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D) $12,502,263 $10,330,618 $2,826,618
Nella Domenici (R) $4,777,524[a] $4,377,754 $399,769
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Polling

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Martin
Heinrich (D) 		Nella
Domenici (R) 		Undecided
[b] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight[33] through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.4% 38.9% 12.7% Heinrich +9.5
RCP[34] June 13 – October 26, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.7% 39.3% 12.0% Heinrich +9.4
270ToWin[35] October 22 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 50.5% 44.5% 5.0% Heinrich +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ[36] through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 50.8% 43.1% 6.1% Heinrich +7.7%
Average 49.6% 41.5% 8.9% Heinrich +8.1%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Martin
Heinrich (D) 		Nella
Domenici (R) 		Other Undecided
Victory Insights (R)[37] November 1–3, 2024 600 (LV) – 50% 48% – 1%
Research & Polling Inc.[38][A] October 10–18, 2024 1,024 (LV) ± 3.1% 51% 40% 1%[d] 7%
SurveyUSA[39][B] September 12–18, 2024 619 (LV) ± 5.4% 47% 34% – 19%
Research & Polling Inc.[40][A] September 6–13, 2024 532 (LV) ± 4.2% 50% 38% 4%[e] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[41][C] September 6–9, 2024 521 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 37% 6%[f] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[42][C] August 25–28, 2024 488 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 33% 4%[g] 19%
Emerson College[43][D] August 20–22, 2024 965 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 37% 4%[h] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[44][C] August 12–15, 2024 453 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 36% 7%[i] 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[45][C] July 31 – August 3, 2024 493 (LV) ± 4.1% 40% 34% 4%[j] 21%
1892 Polling (R)[46][E] June 19–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[47][F] June 13–14, 2024 555 (V) ± 4.2% 47% 40% – 13%
Red Oak Strategies (R)[48][E] May 7–19, 2024 1,800 (LV) ± 2.3% 41% 38% – 21%
1892 Polling (R)[46][E] March 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 36% – –

Results

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2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico[49]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 497,333 55.06% +0.97
Republican Nella Domenici 405,978 44.94% +14.41
Total votes 903,311 100.00%
Turnout 65.33% +10.33
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

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  1. ^ $1,510,000 of this total was self-funded by Domenici
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ "Neither" with 1%
  5. ^ "Neither" with 4%
  6. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; and "Other" with 2%
  7. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 2%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  9. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
  10. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Albuquerque Journal
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by KOB
  3. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
  5. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Domenici
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by New Mexico Political Report

References

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  1. ^ a b Boetel, Ryan (May 4, 2023). "Heinrich announces re-election campaign". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
  2. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  3. ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - New Mexico". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  4. ^ a b "2024 Primary Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State.
  5. ^ Mutnick, Ally (January 16, 2023). "Daughter of former GOP senator launches Senate run in New Mexico". Politico. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  6. ^ Cook, Cathy (February 13, 2024). "Former Bernalillo County sheriff disqualified from Senate race". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  7. ^ "CHICK, CAMERON MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  8. ^ "LUNA, BENJAMIN RALPH #1728 - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  9. ^ "ROSE, JERRY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  10. ^ "WAKELY, THOMAS JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  12. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  13. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  14. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  15. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  16. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  17. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  18. ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  19. ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  20. ^ "314 Action Fund Endorses New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich for re-election". 314 Action.
  21. ^ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". May 31, 2024. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
  22. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  23. ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  24. ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  25. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  26. ^ "Martin Heinrich". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  27. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  28. ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  29. ^ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  30. ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  31. ^ "AFSCME Council 18 Endorsements - New Mexico". AFSCME Council 18. May 20, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  32. ^ Ross, Alex (January 21, 2024). "Domenici nets signatures needed for primary ballot". Roswell Daily Record. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  33. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  34. ^ RCP
  35. ^ 270ToWin
  36. ^ TheHill/DDHQ
  37. ^ Victory Insights (R)
  38. ^ Research & Polling Inc.
  39. ^ SurveyUSA
  40. ^ Research & Polling Inc.
  41. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  42. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  43. ^ Emerson College
  44. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  45. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  46. ^ a b 1892 Polling (R)
  47. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  48. ^ Red Oak Strategies (R)
  49. ^ "2024 General Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Mexico. November 26, 2024. Retrieved November 28, 2024.
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Official campaign websites

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