Concepts of Demography

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Demography is scientific study of human population

It focuses on 3 phenomena:

i. Changes in population size ii. Composition of population [Link] distribution in space

Important demographic processes include: fertility, mortality, marriage, education & social mobility

In a broader sense, additional characteristics such as ethnicity (race, mother tongue), social characteristics (marital status, literacy, educational attainment, womens status), and economic characteristics (employment status, occupation, income) also need to be considered when describing population characteristics

1. 2. 3. 4.

Census National Survey Registration of vital events Demographic Studies

Population studies are concerned not only with population variables but also with relationships between population changes & other variables social, economic, political, biological, genetic, geographical, environmental, health & the like

Definition of Key Words Size refers to the number persons in the population

Distribution refers to the arrangement of the

population in space at a given time

Structure is the distribution of population among its sex

& age groupings

Change is the growth or decline of the total

population or one of its structural units. The components of change total population are births, deaths, & migrations
proportion of males & females in different age-groups. It has a direct bearing on social, economic, health needs of communities or countries. In an old population, for example, the society has to arrange for the care of the elderly, & the countrys health system must be organized accordingly. In a young population, on the other hand, the country has to provide more schools, immunizations, & economic support for the young

Age-Sex Composition of a population refers to the

Net-Migration refers to the total number of

persons added or subtracted from a population as a result of the combined effect of immigration & emigration

Urbanization refers to mass migration of rural

population into urban centers resulting in increasing the urban population & growth of cities at which a given population is expected to increase in a given period of time.

Population Growth Rate (%/ year) is the rate

Population Doubling Time refers to the time

that would take for a population to double. Because the population increase is on the compound interest formula, a 1% per year increase would cause the population to double in about 70 years. If the population is increasing at 3% per year, than the doubling time will be 23.3 years

Population Pyramid is a pictorial presentation

of the age-sex composition of a population

Replacement Level Fertility (or Zero

population growth) is activated when a couple has two births during their reproductive life, just enough to replace themselves. At a community scale,
the replacement level is considered when there are, on the average, 2.1 births per woman, to compensate for child deaths

Momentum of Population Growth is the

characteristic of population growth when a sharp decline in births does not bring in an immediate reduction in natural increase

There are four ways in which the number of people in an area can change during two time periods t0 & t1 Pt1 = Pto + (B D) + (IM OM) B = number of live births to mothers in the area D = number of residents died IM = number of persons moving into the area fro permanent residence OM = number of persons moving out of the area to live elsewhere Thus the population of an area may change due to natural reasons (B D) known as natural increase or due to migration (IM OM) known as net-migration. Subsequently: Population Growth = Natural Increase + Net Migration

While characteristic is an attribute of an individual (e.g. male, young, healthy, employed etc), composition is a property of a group of people. It describes how the total given population is constituted (e.g. 51% males, 20% below age 5, 85% healthy 7& 30% employed etc). Dependency Ratio is an index summarizing an age distribution. Strictly, this is he ratio of population who are economically not active to those who are economically active. However, due to the difficulties in defining economic activity in many countries, especially when international comparisons are made, a ratio of age group is used instead:

Population Composition (Contd)

Dependency Ratio
= Children + Elderly X 100
Working Age = Pop below 15 + 65 & above X 100 Pop 15 64 years Dependency Ratio of Pakistan = 95.1 Dependency Ratio of UK = 66.5

Sex Ratio: The overall sex ratio is simply the ratio

of males to females in the population & is calculated by taking the number of males in a population & dividing it by the number of females in the same population Sex Ratio = Number of Males X 100 Number of Females

Demographic Cycle
World history suggests that every nation passes through a demographic cycle. The stages are:

[Link] Stationary Stage: characterized by

high birth rate and high death rate [Link] Expanding: The death rate begins to decline while birth rate remains unchanged [Link] Expanding: The death rate declined still further and birth rate tend to fall [Link] Stationary Stage: Low birth and low death rates [Link] Stage: birth rate is lower than the death rate and population starts declining

Old Balance: (High fertility & High Mortality)

A large supply of births was necessary to compensate for the large number of deaths. MMR & IMR extremely high New Balance: (Low fertility & Low Mortality) Represents an improved condition of human efficiency & health, with fewer deaths considerably less efforts required to bring a generation to maturity. Production of agricultural & industrial commodities is greater & life style is more comfortable Imbalance: (High Fertility & Low Mortality) In between old & new balance is the period of rapid natural increase. This growth is helpful for underpopulated nations. Too fast growth of population leading economic, social & political chaos ( being faced by numerous developing countries including Pakistan)

Birth Rates High

Death Rates High

Natural Increase

Example
Europe prior to 15th century, most other developing countries till the 19th century

Zero to very slow Slow Rapid Slow

High High Declining Low

Declining Low Low Low

Europe 17th century, India 1930s 40s Europe 18th century, Pakistan 1970s Europe 19th century, East Asian countries in the mid 20th century

Zero or very Europe, Japan & slow USA

World PopulationTrend/ Population Dynamics:

2000 years ago 1800 1900 1950 1970 1980 1985 250 million population 978 million 1650 million 2.5 billion 3.6 billion 4.4 billion 4.8 billion

The rampant population growth is viewed as the greatest obstacle to the economic & social development of the majority of peoples in the underdeveloped world Approximately 95% of population growth is in developing countries Currently, 1/3 of the world population is < 15, & will soon enter the reproductive bracket, giving more potential for population growth The expected number of births per woman, at current fertility rate is:
Africa Asia Latin America North America Europe 6.1 3.2 3.4 2.0 1.6

Economic implications

Due to population explosion there are Short term pressure affects during 2-3 decade Long term over next century and beyond economic affects

Demographic Implications

In population with low birth and death rate, 20-30% of population is under 15; 9-13% is 65 or more. The median age for this population is 32 and there is increased demand for senior citizen

 Environmental / Ecological Implications

Due to population explosion there are Short term pressure affects during 2-3 decade Long term over next century and beyond economic affects

Social / Political Implications

In population with low birth and death rate, 20-30% of population is under 15; 9-13% is 65 or more. The median age for this population is 32 and there is increased demand for senior citizens

Age Group 04 10 14 45 49 60 64 70 74 75 +

U.K. 105 103 101 89 73 37

Pakistan 105 109 127 134 209 173

Age

Pakistan

U.K.

0 -14 15 64 65 & above

44.5 51.2 4.2

22.2 60.0 17.8