UNIVERSITY OF BOTSWANA

END OF THE SEMESTERn EXAMINATIONS- APR/MA Y 2007

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COURSE NO: STA 121 DURATION: 2 HOURS DA TE:24th APR 2007

TITLE OF PAPER: ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY

SUBJECT: STATISTICS TITLE OF EXAMINATION: BA(SS) / DPS

YEAR 1

ANSWER QUESTION ONE (A, B, C)

AND

ANY OTHER TWO QUESTIONS

USE OF CALCULATORS AND STATISTICAL TABLES ALLOWED

DO NOT OPEN THIS PAPER UNTIL YOU HAVE NO. OF PAGES

BEEN TOLD TO DO SO BY THE SUPERVISOR 4

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UNIVERSITY OF BOTSWANA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS

STA 121: ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY TIME: 2 HOURS

INSTRUCTIONS: ANSWER QUESTION 1 (A, B, C) AND ANY TWO OTHERS

Q1 (A). Indicate "TRUE" or "FALSE" to the following statements

(i) A collection of all outcomes of an experiment is an event

(ii) If A and B are events defined on a sample space S, then A UB = S
(iii ) The classical definition of probability assumes that the experiment can be repeated an
infinite number of times.
(iv) Two mutually exclusive events have equal probability of occurring.
(v) If two events are independent then the probability of their intersection is zero.
(vi) The probability of any elementary event is always between 0 and 1
(vii) Complementary events are such that their probability add up to 1
(viii) Two events A and B are dependent if the occurrence of A affects the probability of
occurrence of B.
(ix) For the events A, B, C defined on a sample space S, (A UB UC)' = A' nB' nC'
(x) Events defined on a sample space constitute a partition of the sample space if their
intersection is empty.
[10 Marks]

Q1(B) Fill in the missing spaces

(i) A Bernoulli random variable assumes only two values. ..... ........ and ... ... ...
(ii) The parameters of a binomial distribution are ... ... ... ... ... .... and ... ... ....
(iii) The. .. ... ... ... ... ... of a random variable which follows a Poisson distribution is equal
to the . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .
(iv) The number of ways of selecting a committee of2 men and 3 women trom a club with
8 men and 6 women is . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .
(v) is the way of selecting a certain number of items from a collection
of items when the order of selection is not important while .............................
is the way of selecting a certain number of items trom a collection of items when the order
of selection is important
(vi) The definition of probability uses the concept of likely
outcomes.
(vii) C~)CC3) = ..........................
[It x 12 = 18Marh]

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Q1C : For each question in this section, indicate the letter with the correct alternative
answer.

(i) The table that lists all the values that a discrete random variable X can assume and
their corresponding probabilities is
(a) Frequency table (b) Probability distribution (c) CumulativeProbability distribution

(ii) The parameter/ parameters of a Bernoulli distribution is/ are

(a)p (b)p,q (c)p,x

(iii) The mean and standard deviation of a binomial probability distribution with n =25
and p = 0.20 are
(a) 5 and4 (ii) 8 and4 (c) 4 and 13

(iv) Two mutually exclusive events (a) have the same probability (b) cannot occur
together (c) have no effect on the occurrence of each other

(v) Two independent events are (a) always mutually exclusive (b) never mutually
exclusive (c) always complementary

(vi) A bag contains 4 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random ITomthe bag
without replacement. The probability that a black ball is drawn given that a red ball had
previously been drawn ITomthe bag is

5 5 4
(a) - (c) -
9 8 8
[6 x 2 = 12 Marks]

Q2
(a) According to a survey of 100 people regarding their movie attendance in the last year,
40 had seen a science fiction movie, 55 had seen an adventure movie, and 35 had seen a
horror movie. Moreover, 25 had seen a science fiction movie and an adventure movie, 18
had seen an adventure movie and a horror movie, and 15 had seen a science fiction movie
and a horror movie. Only 5 people had seen a movie ITomall three categories.
(i) Use the given information to set up a Venn diagram. [5 Marks]

Find the number of people who have seen

(ii) Only Science fiction movie [2 marks]
(iii) Only an adventure movie [2 marks]
(iv) Science fiction or adventure or horror movies [6 Marks]
(v) What percentage of the people who are science fiction fans are also horror movie fans?
[3 marks]

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(b) A bag contains three red marbles, three blue ones, three green ones and two yellow
ones (all distinguishable ftom one another).
(i) How many sets of four marbles are possible? [4 Marks]
(ii) How many sets of four marbles are there such that each one is of a different colour?
[4 Marks]
(iii) How many sets of four marbles are there in which at least 2 are red? [4 Marks]

Q3
(a) State and prove Baye's theorem [10 Marks]

(b) Three machines of varying efficiency are used to manufacture a component. Machines
MI, M2 and M3 produce 20%,30% and 50% respectivelyof the total production of the
components. The percentages of each machine's production which are defective are 8%,
5% and 6% respectively.
(i) What is the probability that a component randomly selected will be defective?
[8 Marks]
If a component is randomly selected ftom the total production and is found to be
defective,
(ii) What is the probability that it came ftom M3? [6 Marks]
(iii) What is the probability that it did not come ftom M2? [6 Marks]

Q4
(a) Let A and B be two events defined on a sample space, S. Prove that

P(A UB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A nB) [10 Marks]

(b) Clearly state the conditions under which it is appropriate to assume that a random
variable has a binomial distribution. [6 Marks]

(c) In a survey of students who are statistics majors, 75% stated that they expect to pass
the final examination. Assuming this percentage to hold for the whole population of
statistics majors, find, for a sample of 10, the probabilitythat the number of students
expecting to pass the final examination is:
(i) not more than I [5 Marks]
(ii) between 9 and 10 inclusive [5 Marks]

(d) Find the mean number of students expecting to pass the examination and the standard
deviation. [4 Marks]

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Q5

(a) The random variable X has associated with it the following probabilities

x 0 1 2 3 4
P{x) 0.08 0.11 0.39 0.27 k

(i) For what value ofk is the above distribution for X a probability distribution?
[5 Marks]
(ii) What is the mean and standard deviation of X? [6 Marks]

(b) What are the characteristics of a random variable X that follows the Poisson
distribution?
[4 Marks]

(c) A certain tour company in the Okavango has three boats that it hires out day by day.
The number of demands for these boats has a Poisson distribution with a mean of 2.5
boats per day. Calculate the probability that on a given day:
(i) not more than two boats are hired [6 Marks]
(ii) two boats are hired. [4 Marks]
(iii) more than three boats are hired [5 Marks]

END OF PAPER: GOD BLESS YOU