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Quantitative- Methods 111848

Computer Programming 1 (Cavite State University)

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QUANTITATIVE METHODS (MODELING AND o Using an Algorithm – a series of

SIMULATION) repeating steps to reach a solution

LESSON 1: INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE

V. TESTING THE SOLUTION
ANALYSIS

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS • Both input data and the model should be

tested for accuracy before analysis and
• is a scientific approach to managerial decision implementation
– where raw data are processed and • Results should be logical, consistent, and
manipulated to produce meaningful represent the real situation
information.
• is a technique that uses mathematical and VI. ANALYZING THE RESULTS
statistical modeling, measurement, and
research to understand behavior: Quantitative • Determine the implications of the solution if the
analysts represent a given reality in terms impact of actions or changes needs to be
of a numerical value. studied and understood before implementation
• is applied to the measurement, performance • Sensitive Analysis determines how much the
evaluation, valuation of a financial instrument, result will change if the model or input date
and predicting real - world events such as changes
changes in a country's gross domestic product
(GDP). VII. IMPLEMENTING THE RESULTS

• This can be very difficult because it

RAW DATA (NUMBERS) --- QUANTITATIVE incorporates the solution itself.
ANALYSIS --- MEANINGFUL INFORMATION • Many quantitative analysis researches have
failed because a good, workable solution was
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS APPROACH not properly implemented.
I. DEFINING THE PROBLEM • Changes occur overtime, so even successful
implementations must be monitored to
• Develop a clear and concise statement, determine if modifications are necessary.
direction and meaning to subsequent steps.
• Must be beyond symptoms and identify true
causes. PROBLEMS IN QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
• Concrete on only a few problems – selecting APPROACH
the right problems is very important.
• Specific and measurable objectives may have 1. DEFINING THE PROBLEM
to be developed • Problems may not be easily identified
• There may be conflicting viewpoints or impact
II. DEVELOPING A MODEL on other departments
• The solution may be outdated
• Must be realistic, solvable, and
understandable using mathematical 2. DEVELOPING A MODEL
representations of a situation • There is a trade-off between complexity and
• Must contain variables and also parameters. ease of understanding
o Variables are the decisions and are
generally unknown 3. ACQUIRING INPUT DATA
o Parameters are know quantities that • The validity of the data may be suspected
are part of the model • The sources of the data must be verify

III. ACQUIRING INPUT DATA 4. DEVELOPING A SOLUTION

• Having only one answer may be limiting
• GIGO RULE • Contradicting to the problem
Garbage In --- Process --- Garbage Out 5. TESTING THE SOLUTION
• Some of the features may fail or not work
IV. DEVELOPING A SOLUTION
properly
• The best solution to a problem is found by
manipulating the model variables until a 6. ANALYZING THE RESULT
solution is found that is practical, feasible and • Must be valid in terms of the whole system/
can be implemented. organization
• Common techniques are: Trial and Error
(TAE METHOD) 7. IMPLEMENTING THE RESULT
o Complete Enumeration – trying all • There may be a lack of commitment
possible values

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• Must work with the users and the developers

collaboratively.

QUANTITATIVE VS QUALITATIVE

• Qualitative analysis is a method of inquiry that

develops understanding on human and social
sciences, to find the way people think and feel
Qualitative analysis is less tangible It concerns
subjective characteristics and opinions things
that cannot be expressed as a number.
• Generally speaking, quantitative analysis
involves looking at the hard data, the actual
numbers Quantitative analysis is a research
method that is used to generate numerical
data and hard facts, by employing statistical,
logical and mathematical technique.

QUANTITATIVE QUALITATIVE

EXPERIMENT INTERVIEW

PROGRAM
EVALUATION OBSERVATION

SURVEY SURVEY

TO VALIDATE TO GO DEEP

TO QUANTIFY TO EXPLORE

TO MAKE DECISIONS TO UNDERSTAND

CUSTOMER’S
CUSTOMER’S VOLUME PREFERENCE

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LESSON 2: INTRODUCTION TO MODELING AND COMPONENTS OF A SYSTEM

SIMULATION
• Entity - an object of interest in the system
MODELING • Attribute - the property of an entity
• Activity - a time period of specified length
• is a way to construct a conceptual framework
• State - a collection of variables that describe
that describes a system
the system in any time
• is the testing of design ideas to see if they can
• Event - an instantaneous occurrence that
contribute to a technological outcome being fit
might change the state of the system
to purpose.
o Endogenous - activities and events
• Using an appropriate model allows us to make
occurring with the system
decisions, even when the situation is complex
o Exogenous - activities and events
or resources are limited
occurring with the environment
SIMULATION
COMMON APPLICATONS/ USAGE
• is the imitation of the operation of real world
• Science and Technology
process or system over time.
• Construction Engineering and Project
• is the process of designing a model of a real
Management
system and conducting experiments with this
• Military Application
model for the purpose of either understanding
• Logistics, Supply Chain and Distribution
the behavior of the system and evaluating
Application
various strategies for the operation of the
system. • Basic Education
• To understand • Health Care
• To predict ADVANTAGES OF MODELING AND SIMULATION
MODELING AND SIMULATION • New policies, operating procedures,
information flows and can be explored without
• Simulations require the use of models; the
disrupting ongoing operation of the real system
model represents the key characteristics or
behaviors of the selected system or process, • New hardware designs can be tested without
whereas the simulation represents the committing resources for their acquisition
evolution of the model over time • Time can be compressed or expanded to allow
• A model can be used to investigate a wide for a speed-up or slow-down of the problem
variety of “what if” questions about real world • Bottleneck analysis can be performed to
system while simulation can be used as an discover where work in process, the system is
analysis tool for predicting the effect of delayed.
changes It is better to do simulation before • “What if” questions can be answered
implementation DISADVANTAGE OF MODELING AND SIMULATION
SYSTEM
• Model building requires special training
• is the collection of entities (people, parts, • Simulation results can be difficult to interpret
messages, machines, servers, data, etc.) that • Simulation modeling and analysis can be time
act and interact together toward some end consuming and expensive
process • Many simulation software have output –
• is defined as a group of objects that are joined analysis
together in some regular interaction toward the
accomplishment of some purpose
• is often affected by changes occurring outside
the system: system environment

TWO TYPES OF SYSTEM

• Discrete - System state variables change

instantaneously at separated points in time
• Continuous - System state variables change
continuously as a function of time
• Many systems are partly discrete, partly
continuous

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LESSON 3: BASIC MODELING FORMS AND CORPORATE AND FINANCIAL SIMULATION

SIMULATION APPROACHES
• These are used in corporate planning,
BASIC MODELING FORMS especially the financial aspects.
• The models integrate are focuses more on
CONCEPTUAL/ DESIGN MODEL
production, finance, marketing, and other
• The conceptual model is a structured functions.
description that provides a common
VISUAL INTERACTIVE SIMULATION
understanding of system organization,
behavior, and nomenclature in a higher • It uses computer graphics displays to
level. present the consequences of change in
• Its purpose is to provide analysts with a the value of input variations in the model.
way to think about the system.
• The conceptual model can be developed TYPES OF SIMULATION MODEL
using any combinations of standard PHYSICAL SIMULATION MODEL
techniques, such as data flow diagrams,
structured English, pseudocode, decision • It uses AI or 3D images that will undergo
tables, flowcharts, and any of numerous into a virtual process of the system.
graphical or textual methods. • Usually using specification models that
mainly focuses on the features of the
SPECIFICATION MODEL system and virtual interactive simulation
• specifies what is to be done and not how it as its simulator
is to be done. MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION MODEL
• It captures the requirements at a higher
level and hides the details at lower level. • A process to identify and predict the
• It validates the set of requirements in a behavior, performance and optimization of
systematic manner. some physical or abstract systems
corresponding to various scientific and
COMPUTERIZED/ COMPUTATIONAL MODEL engineering applications.
• should be developed according to the • Using simulation formulas, solving,
accepted conventions of software programming and other mathematical
engineering. applications.
• Usually uses General – purpose • Usually using all forms of models, time
programming languages such as C++, and financial simulation for the simulator.
Java, Python, etc. • Static vs. Dynamic
• a structured approach that is used to • Deterministic vs. Stochastic
analysis, design, coding, testing, and
maintenance a system.
• Focuses mainly in operational attributes,
accommodation of change and the system
capacity to adapt to new environments.

MODELING

1. Determine the goals and objectives

2. Build a conceptual model
3. Convert it into a specification model
4. Convert it into a computational model
5. Verify
6. Validate

BASIC SIMULATION APPROACHES

TIME SIMULATION

• In time dependent, it is used to know the

precise time when the event is likely to
occur.
• In time independent, it is not important to
know the time when the event is occur.

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Static

• model of the system not during runtime.

• sometimes called Monte Carlo simulation,
represents a system at particular point in
time.

Dynamic

• represents systems as they change over

time.
• keep changing with reference to time
whereas static models are at equilibrium of
in a steady state.

Deterministic

• allows you to calculate a future event

exactly, without the involvement of
randomness. If something is deterministic,
you have all of the data necessary to
predict (determine) the outcome with
certainty

Stochastic

• has the capacity to handle uncertainties in

the inputs applied.
• Possess some inherent randomness for
values and initial conditions that will lead
to different outputs.

DETERMINISTIC VS. STOCHASTIC

A deterministic model is a model where:

1. the material properties are well known, none of

them is random
2. The applied load are also deterministic

A Stochastic model has on the other hand:

1. random properties (any formulas that you think

is applicable or would have a good result)
2. The applied load is random variable, e.g. Wind
Load, earthquake (vibration of random
amplitude and displacement)

The Hybrid model is a "mixture" of both Deterministic

and Stochastic. Its treatment is quite similar to the
Stochastic model. The presence of a single random
variable in the model necessitates the consideration of
the stochastic treatment.

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LESSON 4: INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY LESSON 5: INTERSECTION, UNION AND

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY
TREE DIAGRAM
• It is the measure of how likely an event is or
the relative frequency with which we can  a diagram that represents each and every
expect an event will occur. outcomes of an event in hierarchical form.
• It is a numerical index of the likelihood that a
 Commonly used in Simple event
certain event will occur.
• It can be written as FRACTION, DECIMAL, VENN DIAGRAM
PERCENTAGE or RATIO.
• The sum of the probability outcomes will  a picture representing events as circles
always between 0 and 1. enclosed in a rectangle. The rectangle
o 1 or 100% - CERTAIN PROBABILITY represents the sample space and each circle
o .5 or 50% - 50/50 PROBABILITY represents an event.
o 0 or 0% - IMPOSIBBLE  it is used to illustrate one or more events and
PROBABILITY the possible outcome of each event.
PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT PROBABILITY OF COMPOUND EVENTS
• is an action through which specific or well – • We will be using Venn Diagram to indicate two
defined results (counts, measurements, or or more events
responses) are obtained.
• is a pre – planned process for the sake of • INTERSECTION OF TWO EVENTS
producing data that can reveal the purpose of
the process application that can result in only o is a new event that contains all of the
one of several possible outcomes. outcomes that are in both events.

OUTCOME o Indicated by AND in the problem

• the result of the probability experiment • UNION OF TWO EVENTS

• the result of single trial of an experiment o is a new event that contains all of the
SAMPLE SPACE outcomes that are in at least one of
the two events.
• the set of all possible outcomes of a probability
o Indicated by OR in the problem
experiment

EVENT • CONDITIONAL & REVERSE CONDITIONAL

PROBABILITY
• a collection of one or more outcomes of an
o For any two events A and B with P(B)
experiment
> 0, the conditional probability of A
• a subset of the sample space
given that B has occurred
• Simple / Elementary Event – any event which
consists of a single outcome in the sample o Usually recognized in a word problem
space. by words like given, if, among, or
• Compound Event – events which consist of suggested.
more than one outcomes
o Union of Events – is an event that
has happened and is always
associated with an experiment
o Intersection of Events – means that
all the events are occurring together

EVENT OUTCOMES

• subset of the sample space

• Outputs are based on the given event

PROBABILITY OF SIMPLE EVENT

• if each of the outcomes in a sample space is

equally likely to occur

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