Kim Jong Un's Next Move After North Koreans' Retreat in Ukraine

It's been several months since North Korean troops filed toward the frontlines in Russia's southwestern Kursk region in the war against Ukraine. But weeks after Pyongyang's troops vanished from combat, following what Ukraine has described as heavy casualties, there are questions over what North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could do next.

Observers suggest Kim will stick close to key ally Russian President Vladimir Putin while perhaps sidling back toward Chinese leader Xi Jinping. There may also be fresh opportunities for the regime in Pyongyang to reconnect with the U.S. under President Donald Trump.

But however Kim plays his political cards, there is little doubt among experts that the North Koreans will be back in action against Ukraine, likely after regrouping, retraining or rotating in fresh troops.

Continued Backing For Russia's War Effort

At this point, it likely makes sense in Pyongyang to continue to prop up Russia's war effort, specifically in Moscow's long-running attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from Kursk.

"North Korea likely sees little risk in its support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine," said Bryden Spurling, a senior research leader in defense and security with the Rand Corporation think tank's European arm.

"We can see that in how they're directly contributing ground forces in a way that no other state is, on either side of the war," Spurling told Newsweek.

Kim sent to Russia an estimated 12,000 North Korean soldiers who were quickly directed toward Kursk, intelligence reports suggested in the fall. Estimates from Ukraine put roughly half that number as having been killed or injured, although it is not possible to independently verify.

Reports from Moscow and Pyongyang have been split on the effectiveness of the troops, which while hailing from a heavily militarized society, had no real combat experience. Some slapped the troops with the label of "cannon fodder," while select Ukrainian sources have described the fighters as disciplined, in good shape and adept with weapons.

"Their militarization means they have valuable things to contribute for the kind of attritional warfare that Russia is mired in—namely quantity rather than quality of personnel and equipment," Spurling said.

Ukraine has typically described these soldiers, many of which were trained as Pyongyang's special forces, as being thrown into combat in waves of infantry assaults likely to yield high numbers of casualties.

But the North Koreans haven't been spotted by Kyiv in combat since the first few weeks of January, according to Ukrainian sources.

There are several reasons for this, said Samuel Ramani, an associate fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank.

Pyongyang is now likely concerned about the heavy casualty count, and they are fearful that more of their fighters could be captured by Ukraine, Ramani told Newsweek.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that two North Korean soldiers are in Ukrainian custody as prisoners of war (POWs).

Zelensky said in mid-January that one POW had "expressed a desire to stay in Ukraine." The other, the Ukrainian president said, wished to return home.

Colonel Oleksandr Kindratenko, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, told Newsweek that the North Koreans fighting in Kursk had little experience in the drone warfare so dominant in the nearly three years making up Europe's largest land conflict since World War II, although they had shed protective armor to move quickly and erratically away from the reach of uncrewed aerial vehicles.

North Korea is likely worried by its lack of preparedness for modern drone warfare, Ramani said.

But in terms of North Korea's relations with Russia, "nothing has changed," said Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow with the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institution's Center for Asia Policy Studies.

"It's more [that] there might be some shift on the tactical front and on the battlefield," he told Newsweek.

Spurling added: "Both Russia and North Korea have more to gain than lose from their relationship in the current moment."

Future Help From Moscow

International watchers believe North Korea is, or will be, receiving economic aid and a hand-up with its weapons development programs from Russia in exchange for munitions, missiles and troops.

Pyongyang could be seeking more modern equipment from Russia like aircraft or submarine technology, Spurling said. North Korea could also benefit from Russian-designed guided bombs and missiles, Ramani said.

Reports in recent days have indicated that North Korea's missiles, provided to Russia for use against Ukraine, have become increasingly accurate since they were first fired into the country more than a year ago. The improvements, and North Korea's opportunities to test and tweak its missiles, will be a real concern for South Korea.

"The North Korean litmus test is much more aimed at what they're getting from Russia, rather than how effective they are actually fighting Ukrainians," Ramani said.

Kim and Trump

"I think he misses me," Trump said of Kim in July last year. He has since dubbed the North Korean dictator a "smart guy" and "not a religious zealot."

Yet his freshly installed administration is off to a bumpy start with North Korea, indicating that relations Trump enjoyed with the Kim during the Republican's first administration are unlikely to be quite as cordial.

Pyongyang slammed comments made by Secretary of State Marco Rubio—who called North Korea a "rogue state" earlier this month—as "nonsense" that "thoughtlessly tarnish the image of a sovereign state."

"Rubio's coarse and nonsensical remarks only show directly the incorrect view of the new U.S. administration on the DPRK and will never help promote the U.S. interests as he wishes," the country's foreign ministry said, referring to North Korea by its official title, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Pyongyang also criticized the Trump administration's plans to construct "next-generation missile defense shield," designed to protect the U.S. from all types of missile strikes and modeled on Israel's vaunted Iron Dome system.

"The new U.S. administration's hegemony-seeking attempt to maintain its military supremacy and stifle independent and sovereign states through reckless arms buildup has been clearly manifested from the first day of its office," the foreign ministry said.

While North Korea and the U.S. might have a "better chance" of getting on speaking terms under Trump compared to the Biden administration, Kim may still have a sour taste in his mouth after the president's first term, Ramani said.

Trump strode out of a summit in the Vietnamese capital, Hanoi, in 2019 without an agreement, and declared: "Sometimes you have to walk."

"The way that unravelled stung the North Koreans," Ramani said.

The U.S. president also pledged to end American military drills with South Korea, which have since continued.

Although some previous Trump officials that could trip up renewed talks will not be on future teams, the North Koreans have "been burnt," and are likely to be very cautious, Ramani said.

"I still think that North Korea's very skeptical and cautious about the United States," said Yeo, particularly looking beyond the next four years into how contact would work with future administrations.

Yet at the same time, Pyongyang errs on the side of keeping its options open and is keen to avoid feeling entirely beholden to China, Ramani said.

Ri Il Kyu, a former high-ranking North Korean official who defected from the secretive nation in late 2023, told the BBC in August last year that Kim still saw Trump as a leader he could negotiate with over its advancing nuclear weapons program, despite talks falling apart in his first term in the Oval Office.

They may engage with the U.S. if they could secure relief from American sanctions or reach some acknowledgement that Pyongyang is a nuclear power and veer away from demands around denuclearization, Ramani added. But it's not yet clear what the U.S. would be willing to concede to North Korea, Yeo said.

One avenue could be via Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, Yeo added. While trying to pull Putin into talks with Kyiv, Trump could attempt to dissuade the Kremlin from providing technology to Pyongyang or use U.S. mediation in eastern Europe as a way to reach the North Koreans, he said.