Anecdotally from prior play, most diplomacy wins have two broad forms:
1. A second place player has fallen behind in a low or no hard betrayal alliance and is no longer capable of a meaningful backstab, and has decided they don’t plan to backstab their partner because through their ongoing cooperation they’re the second biggest player and you’ve had a good game together. They work to cement your win, because picking the winner is often as fun as winning is.
2. Two main players and their side henchmen who are no longer serious contenders are forced into teaming to prevent the other side of the board’s leader alliance from running away with the win. There’s been a massive amount of betrayals and the table is about to have the crucial fight that will collapse one or the others’ line in defense. One disgruntled player who is on the dividing line of both alliances picks the winning coalition by lashing out against the closest player that screwed them over hardest, ruining that side’s coordination. The winning coalition breaks through, then the biggest coalition’s leader backstabs and eats its subordinates for the win.
In both cases, honesty and cooperation primarily decide the winner - either because other players have deemed you “deserving of the win” or “designated winner by dint of having successfully avoided leaving one or more key players disgruntled enough to tip against you”
You _always_ need cooperation in these wins, but you don’t always per se need to backstab people to win. Insofar as you do, those backstabs come in many flavors and often don’t feel stabby, stuff like “I’m just consistently benefiting a little more from our mutual arrangement than you are” or “I have no plan to personally screw you over, but I’m pretty sure Gary is going to do it for me and I’m not gonna stop him.”
1. A second place player has fallen behind in a low or no hard betrayal alliance and is no longer capable of a meaningful backstab, and has decided they don’t plan to backstab their partner because through their ongoing cooperation they’re the second biggest player and you’ve had a good game together. They work to cement your win, because picking the winner is often as fun as winning is.
2. Two main players and their side henchmen who are no longer serious contenders are forced into teaming to prevent the other side of the board’s leader alliance from running away with the win. There’s been a massive amount of betrayals and the table is about to have the crucial fight that will collapse one or the others’ line in defense. One disgruntled player who is on the dividing line of both alliances picks the winning coalition by lashing out against the closest player that screwed them over hardest, ruining that side’s coordination. The winning coalition breaks through, then the biggest coalition’s leader backstabs and eats its subordinates for the win.
In both cases, honesty and cooperation primarily decide the winner - either because other players have deemed you “deserving of the win” or “designated winner by dint of having successfully avoided leaving one or more key players disgruntled enough to tip against you”
You _always_ need cooperation in these wins, but you don’t always per se need to backstab people to win. Insofar as you do, those backstabs come in many flavors and often don’t feel stabby, stuff like “I’m just consistently benefiting a little more from our mutual arrangement than you are” or “I have no plan to personally screw you over, but I’m pretty sure Gary is going to do it for me and I’m not gonna stop him.”