Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and the harms experienced on the ground by people, property, and nature. It therefore allows the disentangling of different drivers of extreme weather from human-induced climate change and hence provides valuable information to adapt to climate change and to assess loss and damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out of reach. This is due to limitations in attribution science, including the capacity for studying different types of events, as well as the geographical heterogeneity of both climate and impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge of the influences of climate change on five different extreme weather hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), the impacts of recent extreme weather events of each type, and thus the degree to which various impacts are attributable to climate change. For instance, heat extremes have increased in likelihood and intensity worldwide due to climate change, with tens of thousands of deaths directly attributable. This is likely a significant underestimate due to the limited availability of impact information in lower- and middle-income countries. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone rainfall and storm surge height have increased for individual events and across all basins. In the North Atlantic basin, climate change amplified the rainfall of events that, combined, caused half a trillion USD in damages. At the same time, severe droughts in many parts of the world are not attributable to climate change. To advance our understanding of present-day extreme weather impacts due to climate change developments on several levels are required. These include improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around the world, improving the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions, and using attribution studies to explore the contributions of both climate and non-climate drivers of impacts.
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Environmental Research: Climate explores the causes, consequences, and solutions of climate variability and change, by uniting research communities across the entire spectrum of the climate system.
- The following article is Open accessExtreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective
Ben Clarke et al 2022 Environ. Res.: Climate 1 012001
- The following article is Open accessAn interdisciplinary agenda to assess risks of climate extremes to nature’s contributions to people
Sarah Hülsen et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 033002
View article, An interdisciplinary agenda to assess risks of climate extremes to nature’s contributions to peoplePDF, An interdisciplinary agenda to assess risks of climate extremes to nature’s contributions to peopleWeather and climate extremes are transforming ecosystems in ways that threaten society through the disruption of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) from food and water security to disaster mitigation and mental well-being. While scientists and policy makers increasingly recognize the need to account for nature-related losses from climate-driven weather extremes, major research gaps remain, particularly in how climate-altered disturbance regimes will impact NCP and associated human well-being. Addressing this gap is critical for climate mitigation and adaptation planning, because the loss of NCP amplifies social-ecological vulnerability and exacerbates climate risks. However, this cross-systems dynamic remains underrepresented in most climate risk models. Climate risk modeling offers a probabilistic view of evolving hazard regimes under climate change, while ecological research provides mechanistic insight into ecosystem responses to disturbance. We argue that bridging these fields is essential to increasing societal resilience to climate change and propose an interdisciplinary research agenda to integrate social-ecological dynamics with a climate risk perspective. Advancing this agenda is critical to project, anticipate, and plan for ecosystem-related impacts of weather and climate extremes on society.
- The following article is Open accessCo-design and implementation of community-based flood early warning systems in eastern Argentina
Federico Robledo et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 035041
View article, Co-design and implementation of community-based flood early warning systems in eastern ArgentinaPDF, Co-design and implementation of community-based flood early warning systems in eastern ArgentinaAnticipating the Flood (Anticipando la Crecida, ALC) is an outreach and research initiative focused on the co-construction of flood early warning systems (EWSs) in vulnerable neighborhoods of the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (AMBA), Argentina. The approach is participatory, promoting collaboration among local actors, professionals from several disciplines, and academic and scientific communities to design solutions tailored to the specific social and environmental conditions of each community. This work aligns with three of the four priorities of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, addressing disaster risk understanding, risk governance, and disaster preparedness. With over ten years of interinstitutional dialogue, ALC has been able to contextualize its actions within the political, social, and environmental settings of flood-prone neighborhoods. This sustainable approach enables the project to remain relevant over time by involving professionals, lecturers, and students in response to community needs supported through funding obtained from diverse sources. These processes have built trust between local actors and scientific institutions, facilitating the co-production of situated knowledge on flooding and the emergence of new research questions. The paper presents the protocol developed by ALC for the co-production of community-based EWSs. The results demonstrate that a bottom-up approach can effectively connect scientific knowledge with concrete actions that improve the quality of life of vulnerable populations exposed to flooding, highlighting the importance of community participation, spaces for listening and dialogue, and policy integration across all levels of the state to strengthen disaster risk management.
- The following article is Open accessHuman-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes
Daniel M Gilford et al 2024 Environ. Res.: Climate 3 045019
View article, Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanesPDF, Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanesUnderstanding how rising global air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) influence tropical cyclone intensities is crucial for assessing current and future storm risks. Using observations, climate models, and potential intensity theory, this study introduces a novel rapid attribution framework that quantifies the impact of historically-warming North Atlantic SSTs on observed hurricane maximum wind speeds. The attribution framework employs a storyline attribution approach exploring a comprehensive set of counterfactuals scenarios—estimates characterizing historical SST shifts due to human-caused climate change—and considering atmospheric variability. These counterfactual scenarios affect the quantification and significance of attributable changes in hurricane potential and observed actual intensities since pre-industrial. A summary of attributable influences on hurricanes during five recent North Atlantic hurricane seasons (2019–2023) and a case study of Hurricane Ian (2022) reveal that human-driven SST shifts have already driven robust changes in 84% of recent observed hurricane intensities. Hurricanes during the 2019–2023 seasons were 8.3 m s−1 faster, on average, than they would have been in a world without climate change. The attribution framework’s design and application, highlight the potential for this framework to support climate communication.
- The following article is Open accessAttributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in Australia
Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 015004
View article, Attributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in AustraliaPDF, Attributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in AustraliaDetermining the influence of climate change behind human mortality is of interest to many sectors. However, it is a fledgling field where studies have centered on northern hemisphere events. This study presents the first attribution assessment on the mortality burden of an Australian heatwave to climate change. We focus on excess heatwave- (defined by climatological definitions) related mortality in the state of Victoria that occurred during the 2009 southeast Australian heatwave. An epidemiological model derived from well-established methods defining the relationship between observed heatwave temperatures (95th, 97.5th and 99th percentiles) and mortality is applied to heatwaves in simulations that either include or omit anthropogenic climate forcing from eight climate models. Across all models, the frequency of a heatwave-related mortality event similar to the 2009 Victorian event has, on average, doubled under factual conditions relative to counterfactual conditions. Moreover, on average, around 6 ± 3–4 extra individuals out of 31 (an increase of 20%) died as a direct result of extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. Despite the small total number of attributable deaths as per the epidemiological model, six out of eight climate models predicted a statistically significant anthropogenic influence, indicating that climate change increased the heatwave-related mortality impact of this event. We make clear that, in line with previous Australian-based studies, the focus on mortality relative to the top 5% of temperatures logically infers a smaller mortality signal relative to the top 50% of temperatures, as would be defined by a more general temperature-related epidemiological model. As research, planning and policy interest in the role of climate change behind the burden health—and other adverse impacts of weather and climate extremes—continues to grow, it is vital that interdisciplinary collaborations are nurtured, so that the resulting science is of high-quality rigour, and policy relevance.
- The following article is Open accessClimate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan
Friederike E L Otto et al 2023 Environ. Res.: Climate 2 025001
View article, Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in PakistanPDF, Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in PakistanAs a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.
- The following article is Open accessTowards a bottom-up approach to climate risk—learnings from an interdisciplinary dialogue
Camila Prudente et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 033001
View article, Towards a bottom-up approach to climate risk—learnings from an interdisciplinary dialoguePDF, Towards a bottom-up approach to climate risk—learnings from an interdisciplinary dialogueThis article analyzes an interdisciplinary process carried out between 2022 and 2025 within the Argentina Hub of the My Climate Risk World Climate Research Programme lighthouse activity, aimed at developing a bottom-up understanding of climate risk. Bringing together researchers from the physical and anthropological sciences, the dialogue exposed contrasting ways of defining and mobilizing the notion of risk. This led to a sustained exploration of how climate information intersects with the historically grounded social-territorial configurations in which climate risk takes shape. Through a range of activities, the Hub examined how the notion of risk is constructed when approached from different disciplinary perspectives, informing a more situated and multidimensional framing of climate risk. The article reconstructs this trajectory and the insights that emerged, highlighting how interdisciplinary engagement can expand the possibilities for generating climate risk knowledge attuned to local and regional contexts.
- The following article is Open accessSocioeconomic and demographic vulnerabilities as primary determinants of heat-related mortality in the U.S
Anuska Narayanan et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 035046
View article, Socioeconomic and demographic vulnerabilities as primary determinants of heat-related mortality in the U.SPDF, Socioeconomic and demographic vulnerabilities as primary determinants of heat-related mortality in the U.SExtreme heat events (EHEs) are becoming more frequent and severe across the United States, yet the drivers of heat-related mortality remain unevenly understood. This study examines how heat vulnerability and regional heat conditions shape all-cause mortality anomalies across the nine U.S. climate regions. Using a national dataset of EHEs and population-normalized mortality z-scores from 2014–2023, we compared the relative influence of socioeconomic, demographic, environmental, and heat-event characteristics on mortality outcomes. Across regions, socioeconomic and demographic vulnerabilities—particularly poverty, racial/ethnic composition, social isolation, limited green space, and older age—were the strongest predictors of elevated mortality during extreme heat. In contrast, event characteristics such as duration, temperature exceedance, and areal extent contributed comparatively little once socioeconomic and demographic vulnerability was accounted for. Mortality modeling performance varied widely by region, with particularly strong predictive signals in the Southwest, West, and South. These findings suggest that socioeconomic and demographic vulnerabilities, rather than meteorological extremes alone, may be more consistent drivers of heat-related mortality variation across U.S. climate regions. Targeted, region-specific heat-health strategies—especially those addressing social vulnerability and humidity exposure—are essential for reducing mortality risk under a warming climate.
- The following article is Open accessInnovating approaches and tools for advancing climate literacy in the Philippines: lessons from six city workshops in 2023 and 2024
Jameela Joy Reyes et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 035045
View article, Innovating approaches and tools for advancing climate literacy in the Philippines: lessons from six city workshops in 2023 and 2024PDF, Innovating approaches and tools for advancing climate literacy in the Philippines: lessons from six city workshops in 2023 and 2024Enhancing climate literacy is critical to building climate resilience, with participatory approaches gaining traction among both researchers and practitioners working on bridging the gap between science, planning and action. This paper seeks to contribute to the discourse and practice of enhancing climate literacy in the Philippines by highlighting the participatory and innovative methods implemented and reflecting on the processes and outcomes of the workshop, titled ‘Training on Understanding the Latest Climate Science and Local Projections for Adaptation Planning.’ Organized by a team from the Manila Observatory under the USAID-funded Climate Resilient Cities Project, the workshop was carried out between 2023 and 2024 across six climate vulnerable Philippine cities. The climate literacy workshop aimed to enhance the capacity of local government and community stakeholders to articulate their climate narratives and create a clear and inclusive vision of their potential climate futures. To achieve this, the workshop incorporated innovative methods and tools to enhance local climate literacy: localized climate change-modified hazard maps to aid science communication, climate storylines to navigate uncertainty, the solutions framework from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) for a more comprehensive understanding of climate-resilient development, a modified business model canvas for simplifying resilience planning, automated weather station dashboard designs to target different age groups, and participant grouping by generation inspired by the IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report. This paper presents how these tools and approaches were applied through workshop activities, as well as some of the outputs created by local participants. Participant feedback revealed their appreciation of the personalized approaches, especially the climate story exercise, which reflected intergenerational views on climate change, as well as the hands-on activities, including pitching for the business model canvas and designing their own weather dashboards. The workshop was highly effective in deepening participants’ understanding of climate science and its changes while offering informative, interactive learning experiences that made the complex subject matter more accessible. The delivery of these workshops to the six cities demonstrated its replicability and potential for scaling up, while making sure to use climate information specific to the city and adjusting activities to respond to the needs of the city.
- The following article is Open accessInfluence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming
Edward Hanna et al 2024 Environ. Res.: Climate 3 042004
View article, Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warmingPDF, Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warmingIt is widely accepted that Arctic amplification (AA)—enhanced Arctic warming relative to global warming—will increasingly moderate cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) to the midlatitudes. Yet, some recent studies also argue that AA over the last three decades to the rest of the present century may contribute to more frequent severe winter weather including disruptive cold spells. To prepare society for future extremes, it is necessary to resolve whether AA and severe midlatitude winter weather are coincidental or physically linked. Severe winter weather events in the northern continents are often related to a range of stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) configurations and atmospheric blocking, but these dynamical drivers are complex and still not fully understood. Here we review recent research advances and paradigms including a nonlinear theory of atmospheric blocking that helps to explain the location, timing and duration of AA/midlatitude weather connections, studies of the polar vortex’s zonal asymmetric and intra-seasonal variations, its southward migration over continents, and its surface impacts. We highlight novel understanding of SPV variability—polar vortex stretching and a stratosphere–troposphere oscillation—that have remained mostly hidden in the predominant research focus on sudden stratospheric warmings. A physical explanation of the two-way vertical coupling process between the polar vortex and blocking highs, taking into account local surface conditions, remains elusive. We conclude that evidence exists for tropical preconditioning of Arctic-midlatitude climate linkages. Recent research using very large-ensemble climate modelling provides an emerging opportunity to robustly quantify internal atmospheric variability when studying the potential response of midlatitude CAOs to AA and sea-ice loss.
- The following article is Open accessIntegrating socio-economic dimensions into climate change hotspot identification
Shreya Some et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 035052
View article, Integrating socio-economic dimensions into climate change hotspot identificationPDF, Integrating socio-economic dimensions into climate change hotspot identificationAs climate impacts accelerate, ‘climate change hotspots’ (CCHs) are increasingly used to prioritise limited adaptation resources. However, hotspot conceptualisation remains fragmented. To address this gap, this study first conducts an evidence synthesis of 353 studies to investigate how CCHs are conceptually defined and analytically identified across four major climate hazards (heat, drought, flood and snow). This synthesis shows that most existing hotspot methodologies are dominated by potential hazard intensity, while socio-economic dimensions, stakeholder knowledge and impact-based validation are rarely integrated. To address this knowledge gap, we develop a bottom-up integrated framework for CCHs identification. Transitioning away from a top–down hazard-centric approach, our bottom-up approach integrates biophysical and socio-economic data with event-based storylines and stakeholder consultation. The transferability of our framework is demonstrated through two European case studies, snow avalanches in Alps and Carpathians, and flash flood in Trentino-Alto Adige, Italy. The case studies identify hotspots by intersecting climate hazard data with local geographic characteristics and socio-economic information. In both applications, historical event-based storylines ground quantitative risk classifications in real-world disaster dynamics, while stakeholder consultations refine the localised exposure. The results reveal that Alpine and Carpathian snow hotspots are projected to persist and intensify by 2100. The flash flood hotspots remain concentrated in alluvial valley bottoms, where the hazard converges with dense socio-economic and infrastructural exposure. Our integrated framework provides an adaptable and transferable approach for identifying CCHs. It can serve as good practice and can support the prioritisation of adaptation effort and planning across administrative regions and sectors.
- The following article is Open accessTropical and subtropical drylands dominate the interannual variability in global net terrestrial carbon flux irrespective of different global ecosystem classifications or geographic scales
Liam Bogucki et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 035049
View article, Tropical and subtropical drylands dominate the interannual variability in global net terrestrial carbon flux irrespective of different global ecosystem classifications or geographic scalesPDF, Tropical and subtropical drylands dominate the interannual variability in global net terrestrial carbon flux irrespective of different global ecosystem classifications or geographic scalesGlobal terrestrial ecosystems exhibit substantial interannual variability (IAV) in net carbon (C) flux. Determining the biogeographic origin of this variability is essential for the understanding and forecasting of global C cycling and carbon-climate feedbacks. Currently, most studies identify either global drylands or moist tropical forests as the dominant source of IAV. Considering this, we investigated whether the use of three different global ecosystem classifications of drylands and moist tropical forests, as well as two alternative geographical scales, could alter which ecosystem is the dominant contributor to terrestrial net C flux IAV. Using the simulation results of 18 dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDY v11 model intercomparison, we calculated the absolute and area-weighted contributions of net C flux IAV for: individual 0.5° grid cells, global ecosystem classifications, and ecoregions (intermediate scale between grid cells and global ecosystems). For all three of the global ecosystem classification schemes, we found the drylands IAV contributions of 41%, 32%, and 37% were significantly greater than the associated IAV contributions of 20%, 19%, and 24% from the moist tropical forests (p < 0.001). However, the moist tropical forests had a higher IAV contribution per unit area across all three classification schemes (∼3% versus ∼1%–2% (p < 0.001)). At the ecoregion scale, this switch between drylands and moist tropical forests was absent; as seven of the ten highest absolute and nine of the ten highest area-weighted contributing ecoregions were drylands. Specifically, we found tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublands to be particularly substantial contributors to global terrestrial net C flux IAV, with the Cerrado’s absolute IAV contribution of 3.52% exceeding all but one of the other 763 global ecoregions IAV contributions (all p < 0.05). Our findings demonstrate that drylands persist as the dominant contributor to global terrestrial net C flux IAV, irrespective of different global ecosystem classifications or geographic scales.
- The following article is Open accessRevisiting the impact of floods on the agriculture sector: quantitative and qualitative evidences from Assam, India
Rwmwisha Daimari and Subir Sen 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 035051
View article, Revisiting the impact of floods on the agriculture sector: quantitative and qualitative evidences from Assam, IndiaPDF, Revisiting the impact of floods on the agriculture sector: quantitative and qualitative evidences from Assam, IndiaFloods are a recurrent phenomenon in the Indian state of Assam, with nearly 39% land classified as flood-prone. This increases the vulnerability of the agriculture sector that supports around 70% of the state’s population either directly or indirectly. While extensive research exists on the effects of floods and climate change on the agriculture sector, only a few explain their direct long-run consequences and the micro-level adaptive responses. We fill this gap by analysing the impact of floods and climate variability on the primary sector by considering Assam’s agricultural gross value added (GVA), that embodies the sector’s real economic performance in comparison to the aggregate gross domestic product, for the period 1980–2023. We found statistically significant bidirectional relationship between floods and GVA, along with interactions between floods and local climatic conditions. The findings demonstrate that environmental shocks directly affect agricultural performance. We also observe that adaptive capacity and resilience of the agriculture system are impacted indirectly. Therefore, there is a need to understand how adaptation policies need to be designed so that the resilience of the sector improves. Qualitative analysis of survey data collected from a sample of 436 farm households across 16 villages in the Brahmaputra valley, capturing local perceptions, and coping strategies help us in this direction. The study underscore mediating role of adaptive capacity, a key contribution of the study. Results emphasizes the need for a pro-active disaster risk reduction programme. Overall, the study informs policymakers that they should develop targeted strategies to further lower the adverse effects of floods and climate variability on the agricultural sector.
- The following article is Open accessHeat stress conditions in southern South America: characterization and long-term changes under observational uncertainty
Rocio Balmaceda-Huarte et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 035048
View article, Heat stress conditions in southern South America: characterization and long-term changes under observational uncertaintyPDF, Heat stress conditions in southern South America: characterization and long-term changes under observational uncertaintyHeat stress (HS) conditions are some of the most impactful health-related climate hazards, affecting human well-being and comfort, stressing public health and civil protection services, especially in developing countries. This work presents a comprehensive assessment of summer HS conditions across southern South America (SSA), based on five widely used indices derived from temperature and humidity variables, namely wet bulb temperature (wbt), simplified wet bulb globe temperature, heat index (hi), humidex and discomfort index (discomInd). Station data (STN) and five gridded datasets were considered, addressing the challenge of observational uncertainty in SSA. HS indices exhibit different sensitivities to input climate variables. The wbt is more responsive to changes in humidity than the other indices (swbt, hi, humidex, and discomInd), which distinguishes it in terms of spatial patterns, identification of high HS days and trends. Over the recent period (1981–2022), upward trends were observed in most indices, consistent with rising temperatures. A stronger signal of change was identified for hi, whereas a weaker, less robust signal was observed for wbt. The frequency of high HS days also increases across SSA with higher agreement among datasets and indices. Comparison between STN and datasets reveals larger biases in humidity variables, which were considerably reduced when computing the indices. Among the datasets, the finer-resolution ones performed best, highlighting MSWX and ERA5-Land over ERA5, depending on the analyzed aspect. Overall, this study lays the groundwork for robust HS climate assessments across the region, supporting the development of more tailored adaptation strategies in SSA.
- The following article is Open accessCORRIGENDUM: South America Monsoon Lifecycle under SAI and no-SAI scenarios in a warming world (2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 015023)
João Gabriel Martins Ribeiro et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 039502
- The following article is Open accessEscalating wildfires in a warming world: a systematic review of climate change influence on fire regime
Sunil Thapa et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 032002
View article, Escalating wildfires in a warming world: a systematic review of climate change influence on fire regimePDF, Escalating wildfires in a warming world: a systematic review of climate change influence on fire regimeThe rapid growth of primary research on wildfire-climate linkages creates new opportunities for global synthesis and integration. Using a double diamond approach and the PRISMA framework, this systematic review analyses 470 peer-reviewed articles from ScienceDirect, Web of Science and Scopus, enabling a structured synthesis that bridges thematically focused research domains into an integrated perspective. We conduct a bibliometric analysis, identify key research themes and gaps, and examine the spatial and temporal distribution of wildfires and their ecological impacts. Our analysis reveals: (1) a strong research bias toward Australia, North America, and Europe, with first-author affiliations from these continents comprising 80%, while regions like Africa and Asia facing rising wildfire risks are underrepresented due to data limitations, weak policies, and resource constraints; (2) key themes include ecosystem vulnerability, evolving fire strategies, and forest fuel dynamics, but critical gaps remain in long-term fire management effectiveness, Indigenous fire knowledge integration, and interdisciplinary research; (3) rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and changing precipitation patterns have intensified wildfire fire regime attributes including frequency, severity, seasonality, and burned extent globally. The revised synthesis now identifies three areas of strong scientific consensus: intensifying fire weather severity in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, western North America, and boreal forests; increasing high-severity fire extent in temperate conifer forests; and lengthening fire seasons globally. Two areas of conditional agreement are identified: savanna fire frequency trends mediated by land use–climate interactions; and prescribed burning efficacy at stand versus landscape scales. Two areas of ongoing scientific uncertainty are also identified: attribution of fire regime shifts between climate change versus land use and suppression legacies; and future reburning projections in tropical forests. While remote sensing technologies such as moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer, VIIRS, and Landsat have advanced wildfire monitoring, gaps remain in achieving real-time, high-resolution fire detection, especially in regions like Africa and Asia; and (4) finally, the reviewed literature consistently identifies a lack of interdisciplinary research that integrates fire ecology, climate science, and socio-economic dimensions, a gap that continues to limit both rigorous attribution analyses and the development of policy-relevant synthesis. Our findings highlight the urgent need for coordinated global efforts combining Earth observation technologies, advanced modelling and region-specific fire strategies.
- The following article is Open accessEstimating the health impacts of climate change for policy decision-support: a systematic review of spatial microsimulation methods
Ariel A Brunn et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 032001
View article, Estimating the health impacts of climate change for policy decision-support: a systematic review of spatial microsimulation methodsPDF, Estimating the health impacts of climate change for policy decision-support: a systematic review of spatial microsimulation methodsSpatial microsimulation (MSM) models have recently emerged as a new method to quantify health impacts associated with climate change for policy decision-support. These individual-based methods, previously used in tax and health policy planning, have been adapted by combining climate data with exposure-response associations to estimate the distributional health impacts attributable to climate hazards using synthetic populations. To evaluate their methodological characteristics, we conducted a systematic review of the literature. We searched five electronic databases, Google Scholar and the International Journal of MSM, and screened 762 articles to reach a final study set of seven articles. Most models simulated populations based in high income countries (n = 5) and applied dynamic methods to forecast future health outcomes (n = 5). Multiple diverse climate-health pathways of impact were investigated, ranging from heatwave mortality to air pollution-induced cardiovascular outcomes, to climate-sensitive infectious disease occurrence. Baseline and projected spatial climate data was mapped to individuals in city, state, or regional-level synthetic populations to assign hazard exposure. Most models included socioeconomic and demographic attributes (n = 6) to integrate vulnerabilities for burden assessments in marginalised groups such as children, women, and the elderly. Climate policies mainly focused on mitigation through simulated future emissions scenarios (n = 5), or policy mixes (n = 1); one study tested an incremental adaptation intervention. Methods to enhance decision-support among alternative policy options such as economic evaluation (n = 2) or stakeholder engagement (n = 3) were under-represented. Combining dynamic, spatial and individual-based methods together offer a potential route to capture temporal, geographic, and individual heterogeneity in health impacts, however this comes with steep methodological and data needs and conceptual challenges. Addressing these limitations, this systematic review documents this evolving application of MSM models and discusses its contributions to climate-health modelling in the context of distributional impacts, vulnerabilities and modelling for decision-support.
- The following article is Open accessNeglecting plant physiology: systematic overestimation of drought projections
Lorenzo Villani et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 022001
View article, Neglecting plant physiology: systematic overestimation of drought projectionsPDF, Neglecting plant physiology: systematic overestimation of drought projectionsThe impact of climate change on droughts is typically attributed to rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Yet, most drought projections overlook a major climate-induced mechanism: the effect of elevated CO₂ on plant physiology, leading to a significant potential overestimation of droughts magnitudes and impacts. In fact, elevated CO₂ enhances biomass production and reduces stomatal conductance, thereby increasing water-use efficiency. Our systematic review reveals that nearly 90% of evapotranspiration-based drought projections omit CO₂-driven vegetation feedback, and only 10% acknowledge this limitation. Neglecting vegetation response to CO2 can overestimate future drought-affected areas by up to 17.4% ± 10.6% under high-emissions scenarios (CO₂ > 900 ppm), and in some regions even reverse the projected direction of change. This widespread oversight can hamper the robustness of global drought projections. Accounting for vegetation–CO₂ interactions is therefore crucial to avoid systematic bias and produce reliable predictions of water availability in a warming world.
- The following article is Open accessChallenges of modelling climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources: AI is the game changer—a review
Charles Onyutha 2026 Environ. Res.: Climate 5 012001
View article, Challenges of modelling climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources: AI is the game changer—a reviewPDF, Challenges of modelling climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources: AI is the game changer—a reviewThere has been remarkable progress over the past 20 years to support hydrological analysis in climate change context. This study reviewed literature to identify key challenges and provide information for improving understanding of areas that entail knowledge gaps. The challenges are of both traditional and emerging nature. Some identified challenges include complexity in climate modelling, issues of downscaling, choosing fixed or flexible modelling approach, complexity in hydrological modelling, uncertainties in hydrological and climate models, and hydrological analysis in data-scarce catchments. Prominently, there is a notable shift towards the application of artificial intelligence (AI) for tackling these challenges. For instance, the integration of data assimilation and AI is a promising advance for regional analysis of climate change impacts. However, the increasing integration of AI in hydrology aggravates the challenge of ‘black box problem’ in which a modeller has no clue on relationships used to derive outputs from the given inputs. To tackle this, revolutionizing and adopting explainable AI in hydrology is imperative. Model complexity control is a vital procedure to encompass the systematic balance of intricacy with both quality and quantity of available model inputs. Additionally, the choice of a model amid the required flexibility and complexity should be linked to the overall cost and benefits based on the object of the analysis. Finally, to comprehensively identify, characterize, quantify and communicate uncertainties to stakeholders, uncertainty analysis should be integrated with management decision making. This requires recognition of the need for science-policy interfacing tailored for planning climate change adaptation measures.
- The following article is Open accessAnalysing the development of the climate, land, energy, and water systems (CLEWs) modelling framework: a state-of-the-art review
Kane Alexander et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 032001
View article, Analysing the development of the climate, land, energy, and water systems (CLEWs) modelling framework: a state-of-the-art reviewPDF, Analysing the development of the climate, land, energy, and water systems (CLEWs) modelling framework: a state-of-the-art reviewThis comprehensive state-of-the-art literature review explores recent scientific developments in climate, land, energy, and water systems (CLEWs) modelling by systematically analysing 41 peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2024. This research uncovered insights into the evolving interdisciplinary landscape, revealing various trends, such as approximately 74% of studies publishing their data as open-access and 50% employing an open-source analytical tool, or tools, in combination with open-access data. This study identified four areas of significance: (1) the connections between CLEWs and the sustainable development goals, (2) how the CLEWs framework is linked to capacity development, (3) the critical interplay between energy and water systems, and (4) the transformative potential for comprehensive system integration using the CLEWs modelling framework. By pinpointing promising research directions such as soft-linking CLEWs models with geographic information systems, applying robust decision making methodologies, adapting the CLEWs framework to the city level, and highlighting the need to assess real world impact of CLEWs research, the review provides a strategic roadmap for future interdisciplinary research. Notably, the analysis emphasised the urgent need for enhanced institutional coordination and collaborative communities of practice, particularly for open-source modelling tools like the open-source energy modelling system, to further accelerate knowledge dissemination and foster innovative, integrated approaches to complex systemic challenges.
- The following article is Open accessImproved representation of the Kuroshio extension through high-resolution dynamical downscaling: implications for future climate projections
Lim et al
View accepted manuscript, Improved representation of the Kuroshio extension through high-resolution dynamical downscaling: implications for future climate projectionsPDF, Improved representation of the Kuroshio extension through high-resolution dynamical downscaling: implications for future climate projectionsThe Kuroshio Extension (KE) plays a key role in the North Pacific climate through its strong heat transport and wintertime air-sea fluxes. Low-resolution Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models, however, continue to show structural biases such as unrealistic Kuroshio overshooting. To investigate how these biases compromise North Pacific climate projections, we perform high-resolution (1/8°) dynamical downscaling ensemble simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The simulations are driven by seven CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) from 1972 to 2100. During the historical period (1995–2014), the CMIP6 ensemble mean (EM) shows pronounced warm sea surface temperature (SST) and excessive surface net heat flux (NHF) biases in the overshooting KE region (OKE). The ROMS EM markedly mitigates both biases, reducing them by about 94% and 72%, respectively. In the late twenty-first-century projections (2081–2100), the CMIP6 EM exhibits amplified and spatially expanded overestimations of SST and NHF in the OKE compared with the ROMS EM. These overestimations are particularly pronounced under higher-emission scenarios and during winter. This scenario-dependent intensification is closely linked to overestimated ocean heat transport (OHT) resulting from the persistent Kuroshio overshooting bias, which is absent in the high-resolution ROMS simulations. Our findings demonstrate that coarse-resolution Kuroshio pathway biases can distort future regional climate projections, highlighting the importance of high-resolution dynamical downscaling for more physically consistent North Pacific climate projections.
- The following article is Open accessRemote impacts of ice-sheet meltwater forcing on West African cereal yields and domestic cereal production per capita
Defrance et al
View accepted manuscript, Remote impacts of ice-sheet meltwater forcing on West African cereal yields and domestic cereal production per capitaPDF, Remote impacts of ice-sheet meltwater forcing on West African cereal yields and domestic cereal production per capitaWest Africa is highly exposed to climate variability, and rain-fed cereal production remains particularly sensitive to changes in monsoon rainfall, temperature, and radiation. Beyond greenhouse-gas-driven warming, freshwater input from polar ice-sheet melting may alter large-scale ocean--atmosphere circulation and remotely affect West African hydroclimate. Here, we assess how idealized freshwater forcing from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets modifies climate conditions relevant to cereal production in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal.

We use bias-corrected simulations from the IPSL-CM5A-LR model under RCP8.5, including two freshwater hosing experiments representing Greenland Ice Sheet melt and West-Antarctic Ice Sheet melt. Daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation fields are used to force the SARRA-O crop model for maize, millet, and sorghum over the mid-21st century period (2041--2070). Simulated yields are combined with national cultivated areas and United Nations population projections to estimate domestic cereal production per capita, used here as a partial proxy for pressure on domestic cereal-supply capacity.

The Greenland meltwater experiment strongly reduces monsoon rainfall over the study region and leads to substantial cereal-yield declines, with production losses reaching up to 50\% for maize in several countries. In contrast, the West Antarctic meltwater experiment increases rainfall in parts of West Africa and partly offsets yield losses relative to the RCP8.5 baseline. However, once projected population growth is included, domestic cereal production per capita declines sharply across all countries and scenarios, indicating that demographic growth remains a dominant driver of reduced per capita production.

These results show that remote ice-sheet meltwater forcing can substantially modify West African cereal-production outcomes, with contrasting effects depending on the hemisphere of freshwater input. While the analysis does not provide a complete assessment of food security, it highlights a potential additional climate-driven pressure on domestic cereal-supply capacity in a region already facing strong demographic and climatic constraints.
- The following article is Open accessComparing stratospheric aerosol injection strategy optimization in CESM and UKESM
Brody et al
View accepted manuscript, Comparing stratospheric aerosol injection strategy optimization in CESM and UKESMPDF, Comparing stratospheric aerosol injection strategy optimization in CESM and UKESMGreenhouse gas (GHG) induced global warming is an ongoing problem, and stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being studied as a potential supplement to GHG reduction. Since the latitude at which SAI is deployed determines its effect on the climate, the combination of latitudes used and the amount of material injected at each latitude can be tailored to best meet certain objectives. This is referred to as SAI strategy. Prior research has analyzed various SAI strategies as well as searched for optimal strategies in one climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM). This study adds a second climate model, the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM), and compares the results of optimization. The optimized strategies are substantially different between the two models; CESM requires injection focused on lower latitudes whereas UKESM requires injection focused on high latitudes. This is mainly due to the differences in model climate sensitivity patterns to increasing GHG forcing, and not how the models respond to SAI. This means there is large uncertainty in what SAI strategy would be needed to achieve a certain set of climate objectives in the real world, although this would be reduced during a deployment. Next, we searched for a subset of latitudes that can be used in both models without much deviation from optimal performance. The combination of injections at 15°N, 15°S, 60°N, and 60°S was found to perform reasonably well, suggesting that this set of four latitudes may be well-suited for inter-model comparisons of three-degree-of-freedom strategies.
- The following article is Open accessRegional aerosol emission reductions alter tropical circulation
Jeon et al
View accepted manuscript, Regional aerosol emission reductions alter tropical circulationPDF, Regional aerosol emission reductions alter tropical circulationAnthropogenic aerosol emissions are projected to decline rapidly in the near future as air quality regulations strengthen. Crucially, however, the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to these reductions remains a major source of uncertainty. Here, we use multi-model ensembles from Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) to provide a diagnostic assessment of tropical circulation changes in response to global and regional aerosol reductions during 2015-2050. We find that global aerosol reductions lead to a poleward expansion of the Northern Hemisphere tropical width by 0.10° ± 0.08°, a weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation by 1.77 ± 1.09 109 kg s-1 and a strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation by 2.53 ± 1.30 109 kg s-1. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) also shows a northward shift by 0.19° ± 0.10°. These meridional circulation changes consistently emerge across the regional experiments, with aerosol reductions over East Asia and North America+Europe contributing the most. Although the response of the zonal Pacific Walker circulation to global aerosol reductions is not statistically significant, models show a strengthening tendency that is significant under Africa+Middle East aerosol reductions. Notably, the ITCZ response to greenhouse gas forcing is weak and uncertain, whereas aerosol reductions produce a stronger and more robust response, even in the regional experiments. Our results suggest that both global and regional aerosol reduction significantly contribute to large-scale tropical circulation changes.
- The following article is Open accessThe importance of hot summers and individual heatwaves for permafrost in the Swiss Alps
Büeler et al
View accepted manuscript, The importance of hot summers and individual heatwaves for permafrost in the Swiss AlpsPDF, The importance of hot summers and individual heatwaves for permafrost in the Swiss AlpsThe rapid intensification of permafrost warming and thawing in the Swiss Alps due to anthropogenic climate change is well observed and documented, but the response to atmospheric temperature variability on shorter timescales of days to a season is less explored. Here, we address this research question for an ice-poor permafrost slope on the Swiss mountain peak Schilthorn. Using Swiss Permafrost Monitoring Network (PERMOS) observations, we provide evidence that the year-to-year variability of total atmospheric heat over the snow-free summer period largely determines the year-to-year variability of total heat diagnosed in the active layer from the start of the snow-free summer period until the subsequent spring, since the snowpack effectively decouples the ground from the atmosphere during the rest of the year. With the help of idealized sensitivity simulations with the land surface model SNOWPACK, we further demonstrate that late-summer-to-early-autumn heatwaves increase ground heat at the end of the snow-free period until the subsequent spring more than early-summer heatwaves do, even if the total atmospheric heat over the snow-free period remains the same. The reason is that late atmospheric heat occurs closer to the return date of the insulating snowpack and can thus be better retained by the ground than early heat, which is lost back into the atmosphere long before the snowpack comes back. In essence, we provide evidence that hot summers with individual heatwaves in late summer and early autumn might pose the largest risk for a deepening of the active layer and thus for permafrost warming and thawing, at least for ice-poor permafrost investigated here. Running ground surface models such as SNOWPACK with output from subseasonal and seasonal atmospheric prediction models might thus be beneficial for early warnings of ground temperature and permafrost anomalies.
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- The following article is Open accessExtreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective
Ben Clarke et al 2022 Environ. Res.: Climate 1 012001
View article, Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspectivePDF, Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspectiveExtreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and the harms experienced on the ground by people, property, and nature. It therefore allows the disentangling of different drivers of extreme weather from human-induced climate change and hence provides valuable information to adapt to climate change and to assess loss and damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out of reach. This is due to limitations in attribution science, including the capacity for studying different types of events, as well as the geographical heterogeneity of both climate and impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge of the influences of climate change on five different extreme weather hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), the impacts of recent extreme weather events of each type, and thus the degree to which various impacts are attributable to climate change. For instance, heat extremes have increased in likelihood and intensity worldwide due to climate change, with tens of thousands of deaths directly attributable. This is likely a significant underestimate due to the limited availability of impact information in lower- and middle-income countries. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone rainfall and storm surge height have increased for individual events and across all basins. In the North Atlantic basin, climate change amplified the rainfall of events that, combined, caused half a trillion USD in damages. At the same time, severe droughts in many parts of the world are not attributable to climate change. To advance our understanding of present-day extreme weather impacts due to climate change developments on several levels are required. These include improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around the world, improving the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions, and using attribution studies to explore the contributions of both climate and non-climate drivers of impacts.
- The following article is Open accessClimate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan
Friederike E L Otto et al 2023 Environ. Res.: Climate 2 025001
View article, Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in PakistanPDF, Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in PakistanAs a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.
- The following article is Open accessOrigin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability
Flavio Lehner and Clara Deser 2023 Environ. Res.: Climate 2 023001
View article, Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variabilityPDF, Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variabilityAdaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate projection uncertainty, chief among them internal variability. Here, we review the causes and consequences of internal climate variability, how it can be quantified and accounted for in uncertainty assessments, and what research questions remain most pertinent to better understand its predictive limits and consequences for science and society. This perspective argues for putting internal variability into the spotlight of climate adaptation science and intensifying collaborations between the climate modeling and application communities.
- The following article is Open accessWater isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers
Sylvia Dee et al 2023 Environ. Res.: Climate 2 022002
View article, Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiersPDF, Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiersThe hydrologic cycle is a fundamental component of the climate system with critical societal and ecological relevance. Yet gaps persist in our understanding of water fluxes and their response to increased greenhouse gas forcing. The stable isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in water provide a unique opportunity to evaluate hydrological processes and investigate their role in the variability of the climate system and its sensitivity to change. Water isotopes also form the basis of many paleoclimate proxies in a variety of archives, including ice cores, lake and marine sediments, corals, and speleothems. These records hold most of the available information about past hydrologic variability prior to instrumental observations. Water isotopes thus provide a ‘common currency’ that links paleoclimate archives to modern observations, allowing us to evaluate hydrologic processes and their effects on climate variability on a wide range of time and length scales. Building on previous literature summarizing advancements in water isotopic measurements and modeling and describe water isotopic applications for understanding hydrological processes, this topical review reflects on new insights about climate variability from isotopic studies. We highlight new work and opportunities to enhance our understanding and predictive skill and offer a set of recommendations to advance observational and model-based tools for climate research. Finally, we highlight opportunities to better constrain climate sensitivity and identify anthropogenically-driven hydrologic changes within the inherently noisy background of natural climate variability.
- The following article is Open accessClimate change impacts on coastal ecosystems
Ryan Guild et al 2024 Environ. Res.: Climate 3 042006
View article, Climate change impacts on coastal ecosystemsPDF, Climate change impacts on coastal ecosystemsAs the planet undergoes unprecedented climate changes, coastal ecosystems stand at the frontline of ocean-land interactions and environmental changes. This overview explores the various climate-related challenges transforming coastal ecosystems and their responses to these pressures. Key climate-related stressors—including warming, sea level rise, ocean acidification, changes to freshwater availability, and shifts in circulation and disturbance patterns—pose significant threats to both the structure and function of these ecosystems. These stressors impact every level of biological organization, with modern responses manifesting as ecosystem degradation and shifts toward simpler, less biodiverse states—trends likely to intensify with ongoing emissions. Compounded by local human disturbances, these stressors risk overwhelming the adaptive capacity of coastal ecosystems, restructuring coastal food webs, and compromising the essential ecosystem services that currently underpin productivity, storm protection, and water quality in coastal zones. Future trajectories of change in coastal ecosystems will largely depend on the extent of future greenhouse gas emissions and human activities in and around coastal zones. However, critical knowledge gaps remain, particularly regarding the interactions among stressors and the nature of ecological tipping points. Addressing these gaps through further research will be necessary to improve projections of future impacts and support the conservation and resilience of these valuable ecosystems.
- The following article is Open accessClimate change impacts on global potato yields: a review
Toyin Adekanmbi et al 2024 Environ. Res.: Climate 3 012001
View article, Climate change impacts on global potato yields: a reviewPDF, Climate change impacts on global potato yields: a reviewPotatoes as a food crop contribute to zero hunger: Sustainable Development Goal 2. Over the years, the global potato supply has increased by more than double consumption. Changing climatic conditions are a significant determinant of crop growth and development due to the impacts of meteorological conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, on yields, placing nations under the threat of food insecurity. Potatoes are prone to climatic variables such as heat, precipitation, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), droughts, and unexpected frosts. A crop simulation model (CSM) is useful for assessing the effects of climate and various cultivation environments on potato growth and yields. This article aims to review recent literature on known and potential effects of climate change on global potato yields and further highlights tools and methods for assessing those effects. In particular, this review will explore (1) global potato production, growth and varieties; (2) a review of the mechanisms by which changing climates impact potato yields; (3) a review of CSMs as tools for assessing the impacts of climate change on potato yields, and (4) most importantly, this review identifies critical gaps in data availability, modeling tools, and adaptation measures, that lays a foundation for future research toward sustainable potato production under the changing climate.
- The following article is Open accessInfluence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming
Edward Hanna et al 2024 Environ. Res.: Climate 3 042004
View article, Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warmingPDF, Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warmingIt is widely accepted that Arctic amplification (AA)—enhanced Arctic warming relative to global warming—will increasingly moderate cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) to the midlatitudes. Yet, some recent studies also argue that AA over the last three decades to the rest of the present century may contribute to more frequent severe winter weather including disruptive cold spells. To prepare society for future extremes, it is necessary to resolve whether AA and severe midlatitude winter weather are coincidental or physically linked. Severe winter weather events in the northern continents are often related to a range of stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) configurations and atmospheric blocking, but these dynamical drivers are complex and still not fully understood. Here we review recent research advances and paradigms including a nonlinear theory of atmospheric blocking that helps to explain the location, timing and duration of AA/midlatitude weather connections, studies of the polar vortex’s zonal asymmetric and intra-seasonal variations, its southward migration over continents, and its surface impacts. We highlight novel understanding of SPV variability—polar vortex stretching and a stratosphere–troposphere oscillation—that have remained mostly hidden in the predominant research focus on sudden stratospheric warmings. A physical explanation of the two-way vertical coupling process between the polar vortex and blocking highs, taking into account local surface conditions, remains elusive. We conclude that evidence exists for tropical preconditioning of Arctic-midlatitude climate linkages. Recent research using very large-ensemble climate modelling provides an emerging opportunity to robustly quantify internal atmospheric variability when studying the potential response of midlatitude CAOs to AA and sea-ice loss.
- The following article is Open accessA roadmap to achieve the global methane pledge
Christopher S Malley et al 2023 Environ. Res.: Climate 2 011003
View article, A roadmap to achieve the global methane pledgePDF, A roadmap to achieve the global methane pledgeThe Global Methane Pledge (GMP), launched in 2021 and signed by 149 countries and the European Union, aims to reduce global anthropogenic methane emissions by 30% in 2030 compared to 2020 levels. However, the GMP does not specify the contribution of countries or methane-emitting sectors (fossil fuel production, agriculture and waste) to achieve this global goal. Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) describe countries’ climate change commitments, and 86% of countries include methane within the scope of these targets. This paper aims to assess whether a roadmap (i.e. a set of mitigation actions) to achieve the GMP can be developed from those methane-targeted mitigation actions included within NDCs. The 476 methane-focussed mitigation actions within the 168 NDCs analysed are targeted in countries and sectors emitting approximately 40% of global methane. These mitigation actions are not specified in NDCs with implementation targets and timelines that are currently collectively sufficient to achieve the GMP goal. However, if all 476 mitigation actions are implemented to their maximum technical mitigation potential, their implementation could reduce global emissions by ∼31%. Therefore, mitigation actions in NDCs could achieve the GMP goal, but only if implemented to their fullest possible extent. There are also multiple opportunities to increase methane mitigation ambition further. Additional commitments to implement technical methane mitigation measures could lead to mitigation in excess of the GMP goal. Behavioural measures, such as dietary shifts and reduction in waste generation could further reduce methane, and are included in few NDCs currently.
- The following article is Open accessIrrigating urban green space for cooling benefits: the mechanisms and management considerations
Pui Kwan Cheung et al 2022 Environ. Res.: Climate 1 015001
View article, Irrigating urban green space for cooling benefits: the mechanisms and management considerationsPDF, Irrigating urban green space for cooling benefits: the mechanisms and management considerationsEvapotranspiration is an important cooling mechanism in urban green space (UGS). Irrigating vegetated surfaces with potable water, collected stormwater or recycled sewage water has the potential to increase the cooling effect of UGS by increasing evapotranspiration. Such cooling effect may not always be strong because evapotranspiration is dependent on local and regional factors such as background climate, seasonality and vegetation type. When using irrigation for cooling, city managers also need to consider management issues such as irrigation water supply and amenity use of the UGS. This study aims to develop a theoretical framework that explains the physical and energetic mechanisms of irrigation cooling effect and a framework to assist city managers to make decision about the use of irrigation for urban cooling. This is achieved by reviewing the impacts of irrigation on local climate reported in the literature and identifying the regional and local factors that influence irrigation cooling effect in warm seasons. The literature suggests that irrigation can potentially reduce daily maximum air temperature and ground surface temperature by approximately 2.5 °C and 4.9 °C, respectively, depending on weather conditions and irrigation amount. Background climate is an important factor that influences the cooling potentials of irrigation. Cities with dry and warm climates have the highest cooling potentials from irrigation. The cooling potentials are also influenced by seasonality and weather, vegetation type, irrigation time of day and irrigation amount. Cities with a dry and warm season can consider using irrigation to mitigate urban heat within UGS because such climatic conditions can increase cooling potentials. To maximise irrigation cooling effect, cities with abundant irrigation water supply can use a soil moisture-controlled irrigation regime while those with limited supply can use a temperature-controlled regime. More studies are required to understand the cooling potentials of irrigating small, individual UGS.
- The following article is Open accessAttribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts
Mariam Zachariah et al 2023 Environ. Res.: Climate 2 045005
View article, Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impactsPDF, Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impactsIn March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including the breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in the region, resulting in devastating consequences for public health and agriculture. Using event attribution methods, we analyse the role of human-induced climate change in altering the chances of such an event. To capture the extent of the impacts, we choose March–April average of daily maximum temperature over the most affected region in India and Pakistan as the variable. In observations, the 2022 event has a return period of ∼1-in-100 years. For each of the climate models, we then calculate the change in probability and intensity of a 1-in-100 year event between the actual and counterfactual worlds for quantifying the role of climate change. We estimate that human-caused climate change made this heatwave about 1 °C hotter and 30 times more likely in the current, 2022 climate, as compared to the 1.2 °C cooler, pre-industrial climate. Under a future global warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, heatwaves like this are expected to become even more common (2–20 times more likely) and hotter (by 0 °C–1.5 °C) compared to now. Stronger and frequent heat waves in the future will impact vulnerable groups as conditions in some regions exceed limits for human survivability. Therefore, mitigation is essential for avoiding loss of lives and livelihood. Heat Action Plans have proved effective to help reduce heat-related mortality in both countries.
Journal resources
Environmental Publications
- Environmental Research Communications
- Environmental Research Letters
- Environmental Research: Climate
- Environmental Research: Ecology
- Environmental Research: Energy
- Environmental Research: Food Systems
- Environmental Research: Health
- Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability
- Environmental Research: Water
Journal information
- 2022-present
Environmental Research: Climate
doi: 10.1088/issn.2752-5295
Online ISSN: 2752-5295