ROUTE

PLANNING
Public
Transport
Route Planning
Process
Suggested Readings:
Chapter 4: Route Planning
Local Public Transport Route Plan
Manual
DOTR, DILG, LTFRB
 Introduction
to Travel
Demand
Forecasting
Prepared by:
Engr. Harold Loyd M. Ilustrisimo
Instructor I
CE 416
Principles of Transportation Engineering
 Forecasting Travel
Demand
❑ Travel demand is expressed as the
number of persons or vehicles per unit
time that can be expected to travel on a
given segment of a transportation system
under a set of given land-use,
socioeconomic, and environmental
conditions.
❑ Forecasts of travel demand are used to
establish the vehicular volume on future
or modified transportation system
alternatives.
❑ The travel demand forecasting process
Demand Forecasting Approach
Urban Travel Demand Forecasts
❑ when first developed in the 1950s and 1960s
❑ required that extensive databases be prepared using home interview
and/or roadside interview surveys
❑ the information gathered provided useful insight concerning the
characteristics of the trip maker, the land use at each end of the trip and
the mode of travel.
❑ travel data then could be aggregated by zone and/or be used at a more
disaggregated level to formulate relationships between variables and to
Intercity Travel Demand Forecasts
calibrate models.

❑ data are generally aggregated to a greater extent than for urban travel
forecasting, such as city population, average city income, and travel time
or travel cost between city pairs.
❑ The availability of travel data improved considerably with the formation
of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics
❑ The availability of data from the Census Bureau’s American Community
Survey is another positive development.
 ❑ Land-use
Characteristics
❑ Socioeconomic
Characteristics
❑ The availability
of
Transportation
Facilities and
Services
“Supply”
Factors Influencing
Travel Demand
Sequential
Steps for
Travel
Forecasting
Sequential
Steps for
Travel
Forecasting
 Trip Generation
❑ is the process of determining the number of
trips that will begin or end in each traffic
analysis zone within a study area
❑ each trip has two ends, and these are described
in terms of trip purpose, or whether the trips are
either produced by a traffic zone or attracted to
a traffic zone
❑ Trip generation analysis has two functions:
❑ to develop a relationship between trip end
production or attraction and land use
❑ to use the relationship to estimate the
number of trips generated at some future
date under a new set of land use conditions.
 Trip Generation
❑ To illustrate the process, two
methods are considered: cross-
classification and rates based on
activity units. Another commonly
used method is regression
analysis, which has been applied
to estimate both productions and
attractions.
 Cross-
Classification
❑ Cross-classification is a technique
developed by the Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA) to determine
the number of trips that begin or end at
the home. Homebased trip generation
is a useful value because it can
represent a significant proportion of all
trips.
❑ The first step is to develop a
relationship between socioeconomic
measures and trip production. The two
variables most commonly used are
average income and auto ownership.
Other variables that could be
considered are household size and
stage in the household life cycle. The
relationships are developed based on
income data and results of O-D surveys.
 Region A is made up of
zones 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. A
census was done within
the region to determine
the number of trips per
household size by auto
ownership. The data
gathered are presented in
Table 4.1. The forecasted
number of household in
Zone 3 by size and auto
ownership are presented in
Table 4.2.
Solve for:
a. Trip rates by auto
ownership and household
size
b. Total number of trips
generated in Zone 3
 AUTO OWNERSHIP

0 1 2+
HOUSEHOLD SIZE

3+

AUTO OWNERSHIP

0 1 2+
HOUSEHOLD SIZE

3+
 A travel survey produced
the data shown in the
table. Twenty households
were interviewed. The
table shows the number of
trips produced per day for
each of the households
(numbered 1 through 20),
as well as the
corresponding annual
household income and the
number of automobiles
owned. Household income
is classified into three:
low income (<$32,000),
medium income (>
$32,000 - $48,000), and
high income (>$48,000).
Solve for the trip rate by
income classification and
auto ownership in trips
per household.
 AUTO OWNERSHIP

0 1 2 3

HH Trips HH Trips HH Trips HH Trips

Low
INCOME

Medium

High

AUTO OWNERSHIP

0 1 2 3

Low
CLASSIFICATION
INCOME

Medium

High
 Rates Based on Activity
Units
❑ The preceding section illustrated
how trip generation is determined
for residential zones where the
basic unit is the household. Trips
generated at the household end are
referred to as productions, and they
are attracted to zones for purposes
such as work, shopping, visiting
friends, and medical trips. Thus, an
activity unit can be described by
measures such as square feet of
floor space or number of employees.
Trip generation rates for attraction
zones can be determined from
survey data.
A commercial center in the downtown contains several retail
establishments and light industries. Employed at the center are 220 retail
and 650 non-retail workers. The employees have the following
demographic:

Retail Employees - 35% home-based work, 35% home-based other and

Determine the number of trips per day attracted to this zone. Table 4.4
shows the trip rate in trips per employee by type of work and type of
employee.
 NON-RETAIL EMPLOYEE RETAIL EMPLOYEE

HOME-BASED WORK

HOME-BASED OTHER

NON-HOME-BASED
 Regression Analysis
A multiple regression analysis shows the
following relationship for the number of trips
per household.

T = 0.82 + 1.3P + 2.1A