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Intro Probability

This document provides an introduction to probability concepts including experiments, outcomes, events, sample spaces, assigning probabilities to events, and probability rules. Key concepts covered include defining experiments and outcomes, using Venn diagrams to represent sample spaces and events, calculating probabilities using relative frequency and equally likely approaches, and probability rules for unions, intersections, complements, and independent events.

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Mary Veth Niebla
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
52 views

Intro Probability

This document provides an introduction to probability concepts including experiments, outcomes, events, sample spaces, assigning probabilities to events, and probability rules. Key concepts covered include defining experiments and outcomes, using Venn diagrams to represent sample spaces and events, calculating probabilities using relative frequency and equally likely approaches, and probability rules for unions, intersections, complements, and independent events.

Uploaded by

Mary Veth Niebla
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

Experiments, Outcomes, Events and Sample Spaces


What is probability? Basic Rules of Probability Probabilities of Compound Events

EXPERIMENTS, OUTCOMES, EVENTS AND SAMPLE SPACES


Experiment: An experiment is any activity from which results are obtained. A random experiment is one in which the outcomes, or results, cannot be predicted with certainty.

EXPERIMENTS, OUTCOMES, EVENTS AND SAMPLE SPACES


Examples: 1. Flip a coin 2. Flip a coin 3 times 3. Roll a die 4. Draw a SRS of size 50 from a population Trial: A physical action , the result of which cannot be predetermined

BASIC OUTCOMES AND SAMPLE SPACES


Basic Outcome (o): A possible outcome of the experiment Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment

BASIC OUTCOMES AND SAMPLE SPACES


Example #1: A company has offices in six cities, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Paris, and London. A new employee will be randomly assigned to work in on of these offices. Outcomes: Sample Space:

Example #2: A random sample of size two is to be selected from the list of six cities, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Paris, and London.

Outcomes: Sample Space:

EVENTS AND VENN DIAGRAMS


Events: Collections of basic outcomes from the sample space. We say that an event occurs if any one of the basic outcomes in the event occurs. Venn Diagram: Graphical representation of sample space and events

EVENTS AND VENN DIAGRAMS


Example #1 (cont.): 1. Let B be the event that the city selected is in the US 2. Let A be the event that the city selected is in California

Example #2: A random sample of size two is to be selected from the list of six cities, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Paris, and London. Let E be the event that both cities selected are in the US E= Sample Space and Venn Diagram:

ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES TO EVENTS


Probability of an event P(E): Chance that an event will occur Must lie between 0 and 1 0 implies that the event will not occur 1 implies that the event will occur

ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES TO EVENTS


Types of Probability: Objective Relative Frequency Approach Equally-likely Approach Subjective

Relative Frequency Approach: Relative frequency of an event occurring in an infinitely large number of trials

Time Period 1965 1965-1969 1965-1974

Number of Male Live Births 1927.054 9219.202 17857.860

Total Number of Live Births 3760.358 17989.360 34832.050

Relative Frequency of Live Male Birth 0.51247 0.51248 0.51268

Equally-likely Approach: If an experiment must result in n equally likely outcomes, then each possible outcome must have probability 1/n of occurring. Examples: 1. Roll a fair die 2. Select a SRS of size 2 from a population

Subjective Probability: A number between 0 and 1 that reflects a persons degree of belief that an event will occur
Example: Predictions for rain

ODDS
If the odds that an event occurs is a:b, then

a P ( A) ab
Example: If the odds of Came Home winning the Derby are 9:2, what is the subjective probability that he will win?

PROBABILITIES OF EVENTS
Let A be the event A = {o1,o2,, ok}, where o1, o2, , ok are k different outcomes. Then

P( A) P(o1 ) P(o2 )

P(ok )

PROBABILITIES OF EVENTS
Problem The number on a license plate is any digit between 0 and 9. What is the probability that the first digit is a 3? What is the probability that the first digit is less than 4?

PROBABILITIES OF COMPOUND EVENTS

Law of Complements: If A is an event, then the complement of A, denoted by represents the event composed of all basic outcomes in S that do not belong to A.

S
A

LAW OF COMPLEMENTS
Law of Complements:

P( A) 1 P( A)
Example: If the probability of getting a working computer is 0.7, What is the probability of getting a defective computer?

UNIONS AND INTERSECTIONS OF TWO EVENTS

Unions of Two Events If A and B are events, then the union of A and B, denoted by A U B, represents the event composed of all basic outcomes in A or B.

UNIONS AND INTERSECTIONS OF TWO EVENTS


Intersections of Two Events If A and B are events, then the intersection of A and B, denoted by A B, represents the event composed of all basic outcomes in A and B.

ADDITIVE LAW OF PROBABILITY


Let A and B be two events in a sample space S. The probability of the union of A and B is

P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B ).

USING ADDITIVE LAW OF PROBABILITY


Example: At State U, all first-year students must take chemistry and math. Suppose 15% fail chemistry, 12% fail math, and 5% fail both. Suppose a first-year student is selected at random. What is the probability that student selected failed at least one of the courses?

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS


Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that have no basic outcomes in common, or equivalently, their intersection is the empty set. Let A and B be two events in a sample space S. The probability of the union of two mutually exclusive events A and B is P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ).

B S

MULTIPLICATION RULE AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS


Multiplication Rule for Independent Events: Let A and B be two independent events, then

P( A B) P( A) P( B).

MULTIPLICATION RULE AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS


Examples: Flip a coin twice. What is the probability of observing two heads?

MULTIPLICATION RULE AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS


Examples: Flip a coin twice. What is the probability of getting a head and then a tail? A tail and then a head? One head?

MULTIPLICATION RULE AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS


Examples: Three computers are ordered. If the probability of getting a working computer is 0.7, what is the probability that all three are working ?

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