Techniques of Risk Assessment

Tasawwur Husain Zaidi

Department of Geography
Jamia Millia Islamia
New Delhi 110025
RISK ASSESSMENT
The assessment of risk is the process of determining the impact of a disaster or events on a society, the need for
immediate emergency aid to save lives, and expediting recovery and restorative activity. Assessment is an
interdisciplinary process undertaken in phases and involving on the spot surveys and the collation, evaluation and
interpretation of information from various sources concerning both direct and indirect losses, short and long-term
effects. It involves determining not only what has happened and what assistance might be needed, but also defining
objectives of projects undertaken, and how assistance is to be is to be provided to the victims (the modalities). It
requires attention to both short-term needs and long-term implications of moves.
Disaster risk assessment: A qualitative or quantitative approach to determine the nature and extent of disaster risk by
analyzing potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of exposure and vulnerability that together could harm
people, property, services, livelihoods and the environment on which they depend. Disaster risk assessments include:
the identification of hazards; a review of the technical characteristics of hazards such as their location, intensity,
frequency and probability; the analysis of exposure and vulnerability, including the physical, social, health,
environmental and economic dimensions; and the evaluation of the effectiveness of prevailing and alternative coping
capacities with respect to likely risk scenarios.
A risk assessment is a systematic process used to identify potential hazards and risks in a situation, then analyze what
would happen should these hazards take place. As a decision-making tool, risk assessment aims to determine which
measures should be implemented to eliminate or control those risks, as well as specify which of them should be
prioritized according to their likelihood and impact on the business. Risk assessment is one of the major components of
a risk analysis. Risk analysis is a process with multiple steps that intends to identify and analyze all of the potential
risks and issues that are detrimental to the business or enterprise.
DEFINITIONS RELATED TO RISK ASSESSMENT
Risk assessment: A scientifically based process consisting of the following steps: (i) hazard identification, (ii) hazard
characterization, (iii) exposure assessment, and (iv) risk characterization.
Risk assessment policy: refers to a systematic and structured approach to identifying, analyzing, and evaluating the
potential risks and hazards associated with natural or human-induced disasters.
Risk profile: is a representation of the risk of a disaster in a specific area, such as a country, region, or system. It
shows how exposed, sensitive, and resilient a population is to different hazards.
Risk characterization: The qualitative and/or quantitative estimation, including attendant uncertainties, of the
probability of occurrence and severity of known or potential adverse health effects in a given population based on
hazard identification, hazard characterization and exposure assessment.
Risk estimate: The quantitative estimation of risk resulting from risk characterization.
Hazard identification: The identification of biological, chemical and physical agents capable of causing adverse health
effects and which may be present in a particular food or group of foods.
Hazard characterization: The qualitative and/or quantitative evaluation of the nature of the adverse health effects
associated with biological, chemical and physical agents which may be present in food. For chemical agents, a dose
response assessment should be performed. For biological or physical agents, a dose-response assessment should be
performed if the data are obtainable.
Dose-response assessment: The determination of the relationship between the magnitude of exposure (dose) to a
chemical, biological or physical agent and the severity and/or frequency of associated adverse health effects
(response).
Exposure Assessment: The qualitative and/or quantitative evaluation of the likely intake of biological, chemical, and
physical agents via food as well as exposures from other sources if relevant.
This diagram the three stages of the
assessment process. All elements of the
three stages are closely connected
through feedback loops and have some
flexibility in sequencing and timing:

• Stage I: Preparing and scoping

• Stage II: Conducting risk analysis
• Stage III: Using the results for disaster
risk management and development
decisions.

Part one provides policy guidance.

Technical references for designing and
implementing assessments are set out in
parts two and three, as well as in
footnotes and references.
PROCESS OF NATIONAL DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT

The risk assessment process flow outlined in the international standards on risk management (ISO 31000:2009) and
on risk assessment (31010:2009) is the most commonly used . It starts with setting the context and then 12 consists of
three steps: risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. This process flow is the basis for most European
assessments and for the Australian national risk assessment guidelines and some others. Below is a description of
each component of the process, cross-referencing the elements in the Guidelines that cover that step.

Establishing context: This step is concerned with understanding the risk management context in order to define the
purpose and scope of the risk assessment. It includes engaging and consulting with stakeholders and defining criteria
for decisions. In the Guidelines, establishing context starts in element 1 and is then completed with policy and
technical scoping in element 2.

Risk identification: From a national disaster risk assessment perspective, this step is concerned with a very high-
level scoping of hazard, exposure and vulnerabilities to define the direction for the rest of the assessment process. It
uses the knowledge and experience of stakeholders, data on past disasters and risk information to draw initial
conclusions about the importance of a specific hazard, assets, known vulnerabilities and major impacts of concern for
an NDRA. Consideration should be given to both extensive (frequent, lowimpact) and intensive (occasional, high-
impact) events, as well as potential cascading events and simultaneous events linked to the same cause (e.g. El Niño
and La Niña). Disaster risk identification starts in element 2 and is then completed with more technical depth in
element 6.
Risk analysis: This step is concerned with obtaining a more detailed understanding of the disaster risk: detailed
hazard analysis, exposure analysis, vulnerability analysis and capacity analysis. The analysis provides insight into the
interaction of a single hazard or a multi-hazard with the exposure and all dimensions of vulnerabilities (physical,
environmental, social, economic and cultural). Each point of interaction of disaster risk components creates a unique
coupling: a specific impact and its likelihood.

Another component of risk analysis is understanding and evaluating the effectiveness of the existing capacities (or the
controls and measures in place for managing the risk, as this is called in ISO:31010). Understanding the effectiveness
of capacities is critical for identifying targeted measures to manage the risk. Risk analysis also includes assessing the
confidence level or the level of uncertainty. This is relevant for both single-hazard and multi-hazard disaster risk
analysis, with any time-horizon. Risk analysis is covered in elements 6 and 7.

Risk evaluation: This step allows for risk prioritization for the purpose of managing the risk. The multi-hazard
disaster risks analysed for likelihood and impact could be presented in different ways to facilitate the visualization and
prioritization process. The risk prioritization is further adjusted based on an understanding of capacities, risk
perception and risk acceptance of the whole 13 of a country’s society, and by the availability and level of resources to
manage the risks. This requires input from those owning the risk and who are responsible for disaster risk
management. The whole of society is represented through stakeholder coordination and communication mechanisms
to define the priority disaster risks. Only then is there a legitimate basis for disaster risk prioritization – defining the
risks of high societal importance that require immediate attention, the risks that could be tolerated or neglected, and
the risks that need to be closely monitored. Risk evaluation is covered in elements 8 and 9.
BASIS OF RISK ASSESSMENT:

1. Intensity and Magnitude

2. Duration
3. Areal Coverage

RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES

•Identify hazards: Identify potential risks and hazards in a workplace, such as physical dangers or chemical
exposures
•Risk evaluation: Determine the probability of a risk and the severity of its potential consequences
•Quantitative risk assessment: Use data and numbers to measure the probability and impact of risks
•Qualitative risk assessment: Systematically examine what could cause harm to people in the workplace
•Record findings: Document the results of the risk assessment to ensure risks are managed systematically
•Risk matrix: Assess the likelihood and severity of risks, and classify them by order of importance
RISK ASSESSMENT TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

There are options on the tools and techniques that can be seamlessly incorporated into a business’ process. The four
common risk assessment tools are:
• Risk Matrix,
• Decision Tree,
• Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and
• Bowtie Model.

Other risk assessment techniques include the

• What-if Analysis,
• Failure Tree Analysis,
• Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) and
• Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Analysis.
RISK MATRIX

A risk matrix is often used to measure the level of risk by considering the consequence/ severity and likelihood of
injury to a worker after being exposed to a hazard. Two key questions to ask when using a risk matrix should be:
1.Consequences: How bad would the most severe injury be if exposed to the hazard?
2.Likelihood: How likely is the person to be injured if exposed to the hazard?
The most common types are the 3×3 risk matrix, 4×4 risk matrix, and 5×5 risk matrix.
How to Assess Consequences?

It is common to group the injury severity and consequence into the following four categories:
•Fatality – leads to death
•Major or serious injury – serious damage to health which may be irreversible, requiring medical attention and
ongoing treatment
•Minor injury – reversible health damage which may require medical attention but limited ongoing treatment). This
is less likely to involve significant time off work.
•Negligible injuries – first aid only with little or no lost time.

How to Assess Likelihood?

It is common to group the likelihood of a hazard causing worker injury into the following four categories:
•Very likely – exposed to hazard continuously.
•Likely – exposed to hazard occasionally.
•Unlikely – could happen but only rarely.
•Highly unlikely – could happen, but probably never will.
We recommend OSHA’s great learning resources in understanding how to assess consequence and likelihood in your
risk assessments.
A "decision tree" in disaster risk assessment is a graphical tool used to analyze potential outcomes of a disaster by
mapping out different decision pathways based on various factors like hazard type, exposure level, vulnerability,
and mitigation strategies, allowing risk managers to evaluate the most likely scenarios and choose the most
effective response options depending on the unfolding situation.

Key points about decision trees in disaster risk assessment:

•Visual representation:
•The decision tree is structured like a tree with branches splitting at each decision point, representing different
possible actions or conditions that could occur during a disaster.
•Decision nodes:
•These are points in the tree where a choice needs to be made based on available information, like whether to
evacuate or reinforce infrastructure.
•Chance nodes:
•These represent uncertain events with probabilities assigned to each potential outcome, such as the likelihood of a
flood reaching a certain severity.
•Outcomes:

•At the end of each branch, the decision tree shows the potential consequences of a chosen pathway, including the
How to use a decision tree in disaster risk assessment:

1.1. Identify the hazard:

2.Determine the type of natural disaster being assessed (e.g., earthquake, hurricane, flood).
3.2. Define relevant factors:
4.List key factors that could influence the disaster's impact, such as population density,
building quality, warning systems, and mitigation measures.
5.3. Structure the tree:
6.Create a branching diagram with decision nodes and chance nodes, assigning probabilities
to each possible outcome based on available data.
7.4. Analyze pathways:
8.Evaluate each potential decision path, considering the consequences of different actions
and the likelihood of various events.
9.5. Select optimal strategy:

10.Based on the analysis, identify the most effective mitigation or response strategies to
minimize potential damage and loss.