The Normal Distribution

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 6-1

 Learning Objectives

In this lecture, you learn:

 To compute probabilities from the normal
distribution……..using the tables of Z-distribution

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-2

 Some basics (extra-slide)

 Mean and standard deviation determine the

shape of the curve.
 The Z-score, also known as the standard
score, is a way to standardize a value in a
normal distribution so that it can be
compared to other values in the same
distribution.
 The Z-score tells you how many standard
deviations a value is away from the mean.

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-3

 Continuous Probability Distributions

‫بين كل‬
‫رقمين‬
Between each 2
numbers there
are unlimited
numbers

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-4

5
 The Normal Distribution
 ‘Bell Shaped’ Characteristics of normal distribution:

Symmetrical f(X)
 Mean, Median and Mode

are Equal
Location is determined by the σ
mean, μ X
Spread is determined by the μ
standard deviation, σ
Mean
= Median
The random variable has an = Mode
infinite theoretical range:
+  to  
‫أي انه ال يالمس محور السينات (المحور‬
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e)‫السفلي‬
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-6
 The Normal Distribution
Density Function
To count the area under the curve by formula called:

2
1  (X  μ) 
1  
2  

f(X)  e
2π
Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828
π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
μ = the population mean
σ = the population standard deviation
X = any value of the continuous variable

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-7

 Many Normal Distributions

By varying the parameters μ and σ, we obtain

different normal distributions

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-8

 The Normal Distribution
Shape

f(X) Changing μ shifts the

distribution left or right.

Changing σ increases
or decreases the
σ spread.

μ X
Normal distribution must have following
rules:
•Mean, mode, median must be equal
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. •Must have a continuous variables Chap 6-9
 The Standardized Normal

 Any normal distribution (with any mean and

standard deviation combination) can be
transformed into the standardized normal
distribution (Z)

 Need to transform X units into Z units

 The standardized normal distribution (Z) has a

mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-10

11
 Probability as
Area Under the Curve
The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is
symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below

f(X) P (    X  μ )  0 .5
P ( μ  X   )  0 .5

0.5 0.5

μ X
P (    X   )  1 .0
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-12
Empirical Rule (continued)

 Approximately 95% of
the data in a normal
distribution curve lies
within 2 standard
deviations of the mean,
or µ ± 2σ
 Approximately 99.7%
lies within 3 standard
deviations of the mean,
or µ ± 3σ
 Values > µ + 3σ or <
µ - 3σ < are
considered Outliers
Applying the Emperical
Rule
 If you know the population mean and standard
deviation…
Suppose the distribution of PH 311 test scores is a
normal, bell-shaped distribution. The mean
score was 82, and the standard deviation was 6.
 68% of you scored between 76 and 88 (82 ± 6)
 95% of you scored between 70 and 94 (82 ± 12)
 99.7% of you scoredbetween 64 and 100 (82 ± 18)

If I know that you took the test, and I assume a normal distribution of scores,
and I know the mean and standard deviation, I can be 95% sure that you
scored between 70 and 94.
However, the mean and standard deviation reveal limited information.
 Question

 What is the percentage of students who their score

(SAT) is between 470 and 565 ?????.....It is very
difficult to calculate by eye then We need to go to
the Tables (Z or normal distribution tables).

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-16

 Translation to the Standardized
Normal Distribution

 Translate from X to the standardized normal

(the “Z” distribution) by subtracting the mean
of X and dividing by its standard deviation:

X μ
Z
σ
The Z distribution always has mean = 0 and
standard deviation = 1
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-17
 The Standardized
Normal Distribution

 Also known as the “Z” distribution

 Mean is 0
 Standard Deviation is 1
f(Z)

0 Z

Values above the mean have positive Z-values,

values below the mean have negative Z-values
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-18
 Example

 If X is distributed normally with mean of 100

and standard deviation of 50, the Z value for
X = 200 is

X  μ 200  100
Z   2 .0
σ 50
 This says that X = 200 is two standard
deviations (2 increments of 50 units) above
the mean of 100.

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-19

 Comparing X and Z units

100 200 X (μ = 100, σ = 50)

0 2.0 Z (μ = 0, σ = 1)

Note that the shape of the distribution is the same,

only the scale has changed. We can express the
problem in original units (X) or in standardized
units (Z)
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-20
 Finding Normal Probabilities

Probability is measured by the area

under the curve
f(X)
P (a ≤ X ≤ b)
= P (a < X < b)
(Note that the probability
of any individual value is
zero)
Must be between 2 v
a b X

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-21

 The Standardized Normal Table

 The Cumulative Standardized Normal table

in the textbook (Z-table A-4) gives the
probability less than a desired value of Z (i.e.,
from negative infinity to Z)

0.9772
Example:
P(Z < 2.00) = 0.9772

0 2.00 Z

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-22

 General Procedure (steps) for
Finding Normal Probabilities

To find P(a < X < b) when X is

distributed normally:
1. Draw the normal curve for the problem in
terms of X

2. Translate X-values to Z-values

3. Use the Standardized Normal Table

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-23

 Finding Normal Probabilities

 Let X represent the time it takes to download

an image file from the internet.
 Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 seconds and
standard deviation 5.0 seconds.
 Find P(X < 8.6)

X
8.0
8.6
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-24
 Finding Normal Probabilities
(continued)
 Let X represent the time it takes to download an image file from the
internet.
 Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and standard deviation 5.0. Find
P(X < 8.6)

X  μ 8 .6  8 .0
Z   0 .1 2
σ 5 .0

μ=8 μ=0
σ=5 σ=1

8 8.6 X 0 0.12 Z

P(X < 8.6) P(Z < 0.12)

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-25
 Solution: Finding P(Z < 0.12)

Standardized Normal Probability P(X < 8.6)

Table (Portion) = P(Z < 0.12)
Z .00 .01 .02 .5478
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080

0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478

0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871
Z
0.00
0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255
0.12

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-26

 Finding Normal
Upper Tail Probabilities

 Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and

standard deviation 5.0.
 Now Find P(X > 8.6)

X
8.0
8.6
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-27
 Finding Normal
Upper Tail Probabilities
(continued)
 Now Find P(X > 8.6)…
P(X > 8.6) = P(Z > 0.12) = 1.0 - P(Z ≤ 0.12)
= 1.0 - 0.5478 = 0.4522

0.5478
1.000 1.0 - 0.5478
= 0.4522

Z Z
0 0
0.12 0.12
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-28
 Finding a Normal Probability
Between Two Values
 Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < X < 8.6)

Calculate Z-values:

X μ 8 8
Z  0
σ 5
8 8.6 X
X  μ 8 .6  8 0 0.12 Z
Z    0 .1 2
σ 5 P(8 < X < 8.6)
= P(0 < Z < 0.12)
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-29
 Solution: Finding P(0 < Z < 0.12)

Standardized Normal Probability P(8 < X < 8.6)

Table (Portion) = P(0 < Z < 0.12)
= P(Z < 0.12) – P(Z ≤ 0)
Z .00 .01 .02 = 0.5478 - .5000 = 0.0478
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080 0.0478
0.5000
0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478
0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871

0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255 Z

0.00
0.12
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-30
 Probabilities in the Lower Tail

 Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and

standard deviation 5.0.
 Now Find P(7.4 < X < 8)

X
8.0
7.4

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-31

 Probabilities in the Lower Tail
(continued)

Now Find P(7.4 < X < 8)…

P(7.4 < X < 8)
= P(-0.12 < Z < 0) 0.0478
= P(Z < 0) – P(Z ≤ -0.12)
= 0.5000 - 0.4522 = 0.0478 0.4522

The Normal distribution is

symmetric, so this probability
7.4 8.0 X
is the same as P(0 < Z < 0.12) Z
-0.12 0

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-32

 Empirical Rules

What can we say about the distribution of values

around the mean? For any normal distribution:
f(X)

μ ± 1σ encloses about
68.26% of X’s
σ σ
34.13% 34.13%

μ-1σ μ μ+1σ X

68.26%
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-33
 The Empirical Rule
(continued)

 μ ± 2σ covers about 95% of X’s

 μ ± 3σ covers about 99.7% of X’s

2σ 2σ 3σ 3σ
μ x μ x

95.44% 99.73%

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-34

 Given a Normal Probability
Find the X Value

 Steps to find the X value for a known

probability:
1. Find the Z value for the known probability
2. Convert to X units using the formula:

X μ  Zσ

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-35

 Finding the X value for a
Known Probability
(continued)

Example:
 Let X represent the time it takes (in seconds) to
download an image file from the internet.
 Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and standard
deviation 5.0
 Find X such that 20% of download times are less than
X.
0.2000

? 8.0 X
? 0 Z
Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-36
 Find the Z value for
20% in the Lower Tail

1. Find the Z value for the known probability

Standardized Normal Probability  20% area in the lower
Table (Portion) tail is consistent with a
Z … .03 .04 .05 Z value of -0.84

-0.9 … .1762 .1736 .1711

0.2000
-0.8 … .2033 .2005 .1977
-0.7 … .2327 .2296 .2266
? 8.0 X
-0.84 0 Z

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-37

 Finding the X value

2. Convert to X units using the formula:

X  μ  Zσ

 8.0  (  0.84)5.0

 3.80

So 20% of the values from a distribution

with mean 8.0 and standard deviation
5.0 are less than 3.80

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-38

 Evaluating Normality

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-39

 Evaluating Normality
(continued)
Comparing data characteristics to theoretical
properties
 Construct charts or graphs
 For small- or moderate-sized data sets, construct a stem-and-leaf
display or a boxplot to check for symmetry
 For large data sets, does the histogram or polygon appear bell-
shaped?
 Compute descriptive summary measures
 Do the mean, median and mode have similar values?
 Is the interquartile range approximately 1.33 σ?
 Is the range approximately 6 σ?

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-40

 Summary
 Presented normal distribution
 Found probabilities for the normal distribution
 Applied normal distribution to problems

Business Statistics: A First Course, 5e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 6-41

 Example 1

 Find the following probabilities for a standard

normal distribution:
a. P(Z < 1.4)
b. P(Z < -1.5)
c. P(-2 < Z < 0)
d. P(-1 < Z < 1)
e. P(1 < Z < 2)
 Answers of example 1

a. P(Z < 1.4) = 0.9192

b. P(Z < -1.5) = 0.0668
c. P(-2< Z < 0) = 0.4772
d. P(-1 < Z < 1) = 0.6827
e. P(1 < Z < 2) = 0.1359
 Example 2

Suppose that weight of 2 year old children (males) is

normally distributed with a mean of 8.5 kg and a
standard deviation of 2kg. Find the following:
a. Probability of a child its weight is > 9.5kg.
b. Probability of a child its weight is between 7 kg and
8.5 kg.
c. The child’s weight of the 90th percentile.
d. The percentile rank of a child its weight is 8kg.
e. The central limits where 60% of the children their
weight lie between them.
 Answers Example 2

a. P(X > 9.5)

 Z = X -  = 9.5 – 8.5 = 0.5

 2
 Then P(X > 9.5) =

 P(Z > 0.5) = 0.3085

 Answers Example 2 cont.

b. P(7 < X < 8.5).

Z1 = 7 – 8.5 = -0.75
2
Z2 = 8.5 – 8.5 = 0
2
P(7 < X < 8.5) =
P(-0.75 < Z < 0) = P(0.75 > Z > 0) = 0.2734
 Answers Example 2 cont.

c. P(X < Xo) = 0.90

P(Z < Zo ) = 0.90.
Zo = 1.282 from curve E
Z = X –  1.282 = X – 8.5
 2
X = 2(1.282) + 8.5 = 11.05kg the 90th percentile
weight.
 Answers Example 2 cont.

d. The percentile rank of a child its weight is 8kg.

 Z = X –  = 8 – 8.5 = – 0.25

  2
 P(Z < – 0.25) = P(Z > 0.25) = 0.4013

 The percentile rank = 0.4013 x 100% = 40.13 th

percentile rank for 8 kg weight.

 Answers Example 2 cont
e. The central limits where 60% of the children, their
weights lie between them.
P(-Z < Z < Z) = 0.60.
P(–0.84 < Z < 0.84) = 0.60
– 0.84 = X1 – 8.5 and 0.84 = X2 – 8.5
2 2
X1 = 8.5 – 2(0.84) = 6.82kg the lower limit

X2 = 8.5 + 2(0.84) =10.18kg the upper limit