Probability Topics Tree

Random Probability Random

Expectation
Experiment Distribution Variable
Counting Rules

Sample
Outcome Criteria Numeric
Space
s

Mutually Exclusive (Non Overlapping)

Events
Non Mutually Exclusive (Overlapping)

Probability
Independent Dependent
P(AB)=P(A) P(B) Conditional Probability
 Chapter 2
Page # 52

Addition Rule in Probability

i. Mutually Exclusive Events

ii. Not Mutually Exclusive Events

An electronic system consists of four components: A, B, C, and D. The
operation of the system can be represented by four switches, with A and B in
series, and C and D in parallel with the series combination of A and B, as
shown in Figure 1 below. Continuity between input and output means the
system is in operation. Assume that C and D are 95 % pairwise
reliable, but A and B are 99 % pairwise reliable, with all failures occurring
independently.

(a) Represent the event O = {Entire system is operating}, in terms of the events
A = {A is operating}
B = {B is operating}
C = {C is operating}
D = {D is operating}.

(b) Find the overall reliability of the system (i.e., the probability that the
system is operating).

(a) From the diagram, O = (A ∩ B) ∪ C ∪ D

determine the overall reliability to be P[O] = P[(A ∩ B) ∪ C ∪ D

= P[A ∩ B] + P[C ∪ D] − P[A ∩ B]P[C ∪ D] (3)
= 0.99 + 0.95 − 0.99(0.95) (4) = 0.9995
 The rule of addition (also known as the "OR" rule) states that
the probability of two or more mutually exclusive events
occurring is the sum of the probabilities of the individual
events occurring.

P( A U B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )
P(A ∩ B) = Φ

P( A U B U C U D ) = P (A)+P (B)+P(C)+P(D)
If two events have no elements in common
(Their intersection is the empty set.), the events are
called mutually exclusive.
Thus, P(A ∩ B) = Φ. This means that the probability of
event A and event B happening is zero. They cannot both
happen.

•Mutually exclusive events: They are events such

that if one occurs, the other cannot occur. Again, in
the coin example, if we get heads, we cannot get tails.
Hence, the two are mutually exclusive events.
Probability either event A or B occur

P( A U B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )

P( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )
Venn Diagram
The rule of addition for non-mutually
exclusive events:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

P A  B   P  A   P  B – P  A  B 
A∩B ≠ Φ
 For three Events

P(A U B U C ) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P( A ∩ B) - P(B ∩ C) - P( A ∩ C )+P( A ∩ B ∩ C )

 The Axiomatic Definition of Probability
Let S be a sample point we assign a real number denoted by the symbol E1, E2 ,
E3 ..., Ei .... ,En To each sample point, we assign a real number denoted by the
symbol P (Ei) and called the probability of Ei ,that must satisfy the following
basic axioms
i. P ( A)  0 for every event in S ii. P( S ) 1
iii. P( A  B )  P( A )  P( B) for A  B 0

With the help of the above axioms the following theorems results can be derived

P( A  B)
i. P ( )  0 ii. P( A ' ) 1  P( A) iii. 0 P 1 iv. P( A / B ) 
P( B)
v. P( A  B )  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
vi. P( A  B  C )  P( A)  P( B)  P(C )  P( A  B)  P( B  C )  P( A  C )  P( A  B  C )
A  B  A and B
A  B  A or B
Example,
A standard die has six sides with numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. each
of these outcomes are equally likely
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6 }

Two plyers are playing a game

Mr A Throw

A={1,4 }
and Mr B throw
P( A U B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )
B = { 2, 3 , 6 }
AUB ={1,2,3,4,6} P(A ∩ B) = Φ.
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6 }
A={1,4 }
B = { 2, 3 , 6 }
AUB ={1,2,3,4,6}
P ( A ) = 0.34 , P ( B ) = 0.5 and P ( A U B ) = 0.84

P( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )

2,3,
1 ,4 6

5
Example,
A standard die has six sides with numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. each
of these outcomes are equally likely
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6 }

Two plyers are playing a game

Mr A Throw

A={2,4 }
and Mr B throw

B = { 2, 3 , 6 }
AUB ={ 2,3,4,6}
A∩B ≠ Φ
 -n(A∩B)

P A  B   P  A   P  B – P  A  B 
S= { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 }
A={2,4 }
B = { 2, 3 , 6 }
(AUB)={2,3,4,6}

P ( A ) = 0.34 , P ( B ) = 0.5 and P ( A U B ) =

0.67

P ( A  B )  0.17

P A  B   P  A   P  B – P  A  B 

1 3

4 ,
6
Example 2

Among 200 seats available on a British Airways flight, 40 are

reserved for smokers (including 16 aisle seats) and 160 are
reserved for nonsmokers (including 64 aisle seats. If a late
passenger is randomly assigned a seat, find the probability
of getting an aisle seat or one in the smoking section
Twenty cards have been numbered from 1 to 20. The cards are
shuffled and a card is drawn

i. What is the probability that the number so obtained is a

multiple of 5 or 7?

ii. What is the probability that the number so obtained is a

multiple of 3 or 5 ?
Example 1:
There are 150 officers 60 belongs to army and 90 are Naval officers 25
of the Army and 50 of the Naval officer read newspaper daily. An officer
is selected at Random from them. What is the chance that would be an
Army officer or read news paper
Example 3:
In a certain population, 10% of the people are rich, 5% are famous, and
3% are both rich and famous. A person is randomly selected from this
population. What is the chance that the person is
either rich or famous?

P A  B   P  A   P  B – P  A  B 
P R  F   P  R   P  F – P  R  F 
P R  F  0.10  0.05 – 0.03

P R  F  0.12
Example 3:
A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green, and red.
What is the probability of landing on red or blue after spinning this
spinner?

Probabilities:
P(red) = 0.25 and P(blue) = 0.25
P(red or blue) = P(red) + P(blue)
P(red or blue) = 0.25 + 0.25
P(red or blue) = 0.5

0.0000001 % Chance Spinner

A tyre manufacturing company kept a record of the
distance covered before a tyre needed to be replaced. The
table shows the results of 1000 cases.

If a tyre is bought from this company, what is the

probability that :
(i) it has to be substituted before 4000 km is covered?
(ii) it will last more than 9000 km?
(iii) it has to be replaced after 4000 km and 14000 km is
covered by it?
Example 5:
A glass jar contains 14 red, 15 green , 13 blue, and 16 yellow marbles.
If a single marble is chosen at random from the jar, what is the
probability that it is yellow or green?
Probabilities:
P(yellow) =16/58 = 0.27 , P(green) = 15/58 = 0.25
P(yellow or green) = P(yellow) + P(green)
P(yellow or green) = 0.27 + 0.25
P(yellow or green) = 0.52
• Experiment 4:
• On New Year's Eve, the probability of a person having a car accident
is 0.09. The probability of a person driving while intoxicated (excited
by a chemical substance (especially alcohol)) is 0.32 and probability
of a person having a car accident while intoxicated is 0.15. What is the
probability of a person driving while intoxicated or having a car
accident?
• Probabilities:
• P(intoxicated or accident) = P(intoxicated) + P(accident) - P(intoxicated and accident)
• = 0.32 + 0.09 - 0.15
• P(intoxicated or accident) = 0.26
Example #: In a survey about a change in cafeteria food, 100 students were asked
if they favor the change, oppose the change, or have no opinion about the change.
The responses are indicated below.

Find the probability that a randomly selected respondent to the survey opposes or
has no opinion about the change in cafeteria food.
The probability that a respondent opposes the change or has
no opinion is 73%.
Example #2:
Find the probability that a randomly selected respondent to the
survey is a boy or opposes the change in the policy.
The events “boy” and “opposes” are inclusive events.
P(boy or opposes) = P(boy) + P(opposes) – P(boy and opposes)

The probability that a respondent is a boy or opposes the change is 75%.

Multiplicative Rule of probability

Dependent
Independent events
i. Dependent Events
The occurrence of some events may affect the
probability of occurrence of others
A and B are two events from a sample space ‘S’. Such
that event A occur firstly and event ‘B’ occur secondly.
Then probability of event ‘B’ changes due occurring of
event ‘A’. These events are dependents events
Therefore probability of both events occur A and B
P ( A and B ) = P ( A ) x P ( B / A )
where
P ( B / A ) = Probability of event B given that event
‘A’ has occurred
Independent Events
Two or more events are independent events if the
occurrence or nonoccurrence of one of the events
does not affect the occurrence or nonoccurrence
of the other events

i. P  A  B  P A  P B 
ii . P  A  B '
 P  A  P B 
'

iii . P  A '  B  P A  P B 
'

iv . P  A '  B '
P A  P B 
' '
 Independent Events

Two events are independent if the result of the second

event is not affected by the result of the first event. If A and
B are independent events,
the probability of both events occurring is the product of
the probabilities of the individual events.

P  A  B  P  A   P  B 
Example
There are 11 red and 11 blue
balls in a jar

Case -1 Without replacement

i. Two balls are drawn at random one by

one what is the probability ball is red
ii. What is the probability ball is blue

iii. What is the probability 1st ball is red and

2nd ball is blue
 Case – 2 With replacement

iii.One ball is drawn at what is the

probability ball is red
iv.What is the probability ball is blue

v. What is the probability 1st ball is red

and 2nd ball is blue
Example - 1
A vehicle contains two engines, a main engine and a backup. The
engine component fails only if both engines fail. The probability that
the main engine fails is 0.05 , and the probability that the backup
engine fails is 0.10.Assume that the main and backup engines
function independently. What is the probability that the engine

component fails?
Solution
The probability that the engine component fails is the
probability that both engines fail therefore
P(engine component fails ) = P( main engine fails and backup engine fails )
P(main engine fails and backup engine fails ) = P(main fails) x P( backup fails)
P(main engine fails and backup engine fails ) = P(main fails) x P( backup fails)
= 0.05 x 0.10 = 0.005 = 0.5 %
Example 2

Oil wells drilled in region A have probability 0.2 of

producing. Wells drilled in region B have probability 0.09 of
producing. One well is drilled in each region. Assume the
wells produce independently.
What is the probability both wells produce oil ? (0.018)
 Independent Jet Engines Example

A three-engine jet departed from Miami

International Airport en route to South America,
but one engine failed immediately after take
off. While the plane was turning back to the
runway, the other two -engines also failed, but
the pilot was able to make a safe landing. With
independent jet engines, the probability of all
three failing is only (0.0001)3 , OR
Example – 3
Mr. A speaks truth in 75%; cases and Mr. B in 80% of the
cases. i. In what percentage of cases are they likely to
contradict
each other, narrating the same incident?
ii. P( same statement) =
iii. P(either A or B speak the truth) =
iv. P(atleast one them speak the truth)
about one chance in a trillion .The FAA found that the
same mechanic who replaced the oil in all three
engines incorrectly positioned the oil plug sealing rings.
A goal in using three separate engines is to increase
safely with independent engines, but the use of a
single mechanic caused their operation become
dependent. Maintenance procedures now require that
the engines be serviced by different mechanics.
 Experiment 5:

The event A1 that a certain part of an airplane works

during a flight is determined to be 0.99 .Since the
engineers are reluctant to risk the probability 0.01 of
failure they insert another part in parallel. This means
the failure occurs if and only if both parts fail. Let the
event A2 stand for the success of the second part.
Assume that it has been determined that P ( A2 ) = 0.99
and that A1 and A2 are independent events. Find the
probability of success.
Assume events A, B and C are such that P ( A ) = 0.5 , P ( B ) = 0.6 , P ( C ) =
0.4, P ( A ∩ B ) = 0.3 , P ( B ∩ C ) = 0.2 , P ( C ∩ A ) = 0.1 and
P ( A ∩ B ∩ C ) = 0.05. Find
i.P ( A ∩B ∩ C’) by Venn Diagram ii. P ( A’ ∩ B ∩ C’) iii P (A U B U C)

A
P ( A ∩ B’ ∩ C’ ) B
P ( A’ ∩ B ∩ C’ )
P ( A ∩ B ∩ C’ )
0.15 0.25 0.15

P(A∩ B∩ C)

0.05
P ( A ∩ B’ ∩ C ) P ( A’ ∩ B ∩ C )
0.05 0.15

P ( A’ ∩ B’ ∩ C)

0.15
C
Example – 4

Three missiles are fired at a target .If the probabilities of hitting the
target are 0.4, 0.5 and 0.6 respectively, and if the missiles are fired
independently what is the probability.
i that all the missiles hit the target (0.12)
ii. that exactly one hits the target (0.38)
iii. that exactly 2-hit the target (0.38)
iv. that atleast one of the three hits the target (0.88)
 Example – 5

A unit contains 7 Army and 5 Naval officers .Another

contains 9 Army 4 Naval officers. An officer is selected at
random form the first unit and transferred in the second
unit. An officer is selected at random from the second unit.
What is the probability, that he is an Army Officer? and he
is a Naval officer?
Question 1: An instructor has a question bank with 300
easy T/F, 200 Difficult T/F, 500 easy MCQ, and 400
difficult MCQ. If a question is selected randomly from
the question bank, What is the probability that it is an
easy question given that it is an MCQ?

Let,
•P(easy)= (300+500)/1400 = 800/1400 = 4/7

•P(MCQ)= (400+500)/1400 = 900/1400 = 9/14

•P(easy ∩ MCQ)= (500)/1400 =5/14

•P(easy/MCQ) = P(easy ∩ MCQ)/ P ( MCQ )

= (5/14)/(9/14) =5/9
Question 2: In a shipment of 20 apples, 3 are rotten. 3 apples are randomly selec
What is the probability that all
hree are rotten if the first and second are not replaced?
Solution:
Probabilities: P(3 rotten) = (3/20 × 2/19 × 1/18)= 6/6840 = 1/1140

A code consists of a two digit number chosen from 00 to 99,

followed by two different letters of the alphabet.
What is the probability the code is 12KY? ( 1 / 65000 )
Have a Nice Day