Chapter 6

Probability distributions

Mr. Yonatan N.

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 RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Definition: A random variable is a numerical
description of the outcomes of the
experiment or a numerical valued function
defined on sample space, usually denoted
by capital letters.
Example: If X is a random variable, then it
is a function from the elements of the
sample space to the set of real numbers.
i.e. X is a function X: S R
A random variable takes a possible
outcome and assigns a number to it.
Example: Flip a coin three times, let X be
the number of heads in three tosses.
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 Contd…

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 Contd…
Random variables are of two types:
1. Discrete random variable: are variables which
can assume only a specific number of values.
They have values that can be counted Examples:
Toss coin n times and count the number of heads.
Number of children in a family.
Number of car accidents per week.
Number of defective items in a given company.
Number of bacteria per two cubic centimeter of
water.

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 Contd…
There are three types of Discrete random
variable.
binomial distribution,
the Poisson distribution,
the Hypergeometric distribution.

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 Binomial distribution
The binomial distribution can be used in situations
in which a given experiment (often referred to, in
this context, as a trial) is repeated a number of
times.
For the binomial model to be applied the following
four criteria must be satisfied:
 the trial is carried out a fixed number of times n
 the outcomes of each trial can be classified into two
‘types’ conventionally named ‘success’ or ‘failure’
 the probability p of success remains constant for
each trial
 the individual trials are independent of each other.

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 Contd…
For example, if we consider throwing a coin
7 times what is the probability that exactly
4 Heads occur?

This problem can be modelled by the

binomial distribution since the four basic
criteria are assumed satisfied as we see.

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 Contd…
2. Continuous random variable: are
variables that can assume all values between
any two give values.
Examples:
Height of students at certain college.
Mark of a student.
Life time of light bulbs.
Length of time required to complete a given
In training.
principle variables such as height, weight,
and temperature are continuous, in practice
the limitations of our measuring instruments
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restrict us to a discrete (though sometimes
 Cont…
The Normal Distribution
Is Common continuous probability distributions.
The normal distribution is probably the most
important
distribution in all of probability and statistics.
Many populations have distributions that can
be fit very
closely by an appropriate normal (or Gaussian,
bell) curve.
Examples: height, weight, and other physical,
characteristics, scores on various tests, etc.

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 Probability Distribution
Definition: a probability distribution consists of
value that a random variable can assume and
the corresponding probabilities of the values.
Example: Consider the experiment of tossing a
coin three times. Let X is the number of heads.
Construct the probability distribution of X.
Solution:
First identify the possible value that X can
assume.
Calculate the probability of each possible
distinct value of X and express X in the form of
frequency distribution.
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 Contd…

Probability distribution is denoted by P for discrete and by f for

continuous random variable.

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 Chapter 7

SAMPLING METHODS

Mr. Yonatan N.

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 LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Learn the reasons for sampling

Develop an understanding about different

sampling methods

Distinguish between probability & non probability

sampling

Discuss the relative advantages & disadvantages

of each sampling methods

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 What is research?
• “Scientific research is systematic, controlled,
empirical, and critical investigation of natural
phenomena guided by theory and hypotheses
about the presumed relations among such
phenomena.”
– Kerlinger, 1986

• Research is an organized and systematic way of

finding answers to questions

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Important Components of Empirical Research

Problem statement, research questions, purposes,

benefits
Theory, assumptions, background literature
Variables and hypotheses
Operational definitions and measurement
Research design and methodology
Instrumentation, sampling
Data analysis
Conclusions, interpretations, recommendations

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 SAMPLING
A sample is “a smaller (but hopefully
representative) collection of units from a
population used to determine truths about that
population” (Field, 2005)
Why sample?
Resources (time, money) and workload
Gives results with known accuracy that can be
calculated mathematically
The sampling frame is the list from which the
potential respondents are drawn
Registrar’s office
Class rosters
Must assess sampling frame errors

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 SAMPLING……
What is your population of interest?
To whom do you want to generalize your
results?
All doctors
School children
Indians
Women aged 15-45 years
Other
Can you sample the entire population?

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SAMPLING…….

3 factors that influence sample representative-

ness
 Sampling procedure
 Sample size
 Participation (response)

When might you sample the entire population?

 When your population is very small
 When you have extensive resources
 When you don’t expect a very high response

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19
SAMPLING BREAKDOWN
 SAMPLING…….

STUDY POPULATION

SAMPLE

TARGET POPULATION

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 Types of Samples

Probability (Random) Samples

 Simple random sample
Systematic random sample
Stratified random sample
Multistage sample
Multiphase sample
Cluster sample
Non-Probability Samples
Convenience sample
Purposive sample
Quota

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 Process
The sampling process comprises several
stages:
Defining the population of concern
Specifying a sampling frame, a set of items
or events possible to measure
Specifying a sampling method for selecting
items or events from the frame
Determining the sample size
Implementing the sampling plan
Sampling and data collecting
Reviewing the sampling process

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 Population definition
A population can be defined as including
all people or items with the characteristic
one wishes to understand.
 Because there is very rarely enough time
or money to gather information from
everyone or everything in a population,
the goal becomes finding a
representative sample (or subset) of that
population.

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 SAMPLING FRAME
 In the most straightforward case, such as the
sentencing of a batch of material from production
(acceptance sampling by lots), it is possible to
identify and measure every single item in the
population and to include any one of them in our
sample.
 However, in the more general case this is not
possible.
 There is no way to identify all rats in the set of all
rats.
 As a remedy, we seek a sampling frame which has
the property that we can identify every single
element and include any in our sample .
 The sampling frame must be representative of the
population
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 PROBABILITY SAMPLING

 A probability sampling scheme is one in which

every unit in the population has a chance (greater
than zero) of being selected in the sample, and
this probability can be accurately determined.

 . When every element in the population does have

the same probability of selection, this is known as
an 'equal probability of selection' (EPS) design.

 Such designs are also referred to as 'self-

weighting' because all sampled units are given
the same weight.
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 PROBABILITY SAMPLING…….

Probability sampling includes:

Simple Random Sampling,
Systematic Sampling,
Stratified Random Sampling,
Cluster Sampling
Multistage Sampling.
Multiphase sampling

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NON PROBABILITY SAMPLING
 Any sampling method where some elements of population
have no chance of selection (these are sometimes referred
to as 'out of coverage'/'undercovered'), or where the
probability of selection can't be accurately determined.
 It involves the selection of elements based on assumptions
regarding the population of interest, which forms the criteria
for selection.
 Hence, because the selection of elements is nonrandom,
nonprobability sampling not allows the estimation of
sampling errors..

 Example: We visit every household in a given street, and

interview the first person to answer the door. In any
household with more than one occupant, this is a
nonprobability sample, because some people are more likely
to answer the door (e.g. an unemployed person who spends
most of their time at home is more likely to answer than an
employed housemate who might be at work when the
interviewer calls) and it's not practical to calculate these
probabilities.
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 NONPROBABILITY SAMPLING…….
• Nonprobability Sampling includes:
Accidental Sampling, Quota Sampling and
Purposive Sampling.
• In addition, nonresponse effects may turn
any probability design into a nonprobability
design if the characteristics of nonresponse
are not well understood, since nonresponse
effectively modifies each element's
probability of being sampled.

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 SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING
• Applicable when population is small,
homogeneous & readily available
• All subsets of the frame are given an equal
probability.
• Each element of the frame thus has an equal
probability of selection.
• It provides for greatest number of possible
samples. This is done by assigning a number to
each unit in the sampling frame.
• A table of random number or lottery system is
used to determine which units are to be
selected.
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SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING……..
 Estimates are easy to calculate.
 Simple random sampling is always an EPS design, but not
all EPS designs are simple random sampling.

 Disadvantages
 If sampling frame large, this method impracticable.
 Minority subgroups of interest in population may not be
present in sample in sufficient numbers for study.

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REPLACEMENT OF SELECTED UNITS

Sampling schemes may be without replacement

('WOR' - no element can be selected more than
once in the same sample) or with replacement
('WR' - an element may appear multiple times in
the one sample).
For example, if we catch fish, measure them, and
immediately return them to the water before
continuing with the sample, this is a WR design,
because we might end up catching and
measuring the same fish more than once.
However, if we do not return the fish to the water
(e.g. if we eat the fish), this becomes a WOR
31 design.
 SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING
 Systematic sampling relies on arranging the
target population according to some ordering
scheme and then selecting elements at regular
intervals through that ordered list.
 Systematic sampling involves a random start and
then proceeds with the selection of every kth
element from then onwards. In this case,
k=(population size/sample size).
 It is important that the starting point is not
automatically the first in the list, but is instead
randomly chosen from within the first to the kth
element in the list.
 A simple example would be to select every 10th
name from the telephone directory (an 'every 10th'
sample, also referred to as 'sampling with a skip of
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10').
 SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING……
As described above, systematic sampling is an EPS method,
because all elements have the same probability of selection (in
the example given, one in ten). It is not 'simple random
sampling' because different subsets of the same size have
different selection probabilities - e.g. the set {4,14,24,...,994}
has a one-in-ten probability of selection, but the set
{4,13,24,34,...} has zero probability of selection.

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 SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING……
 ADVANTAGES:
 Sample easy to select
 Suitable sampling frame can be identified easily
 Sample evenly spread over entire reference population
 DISADVANTAGES:
 Sample may be biased if hidden periodicity in
population coincides with that of selection.
 Difficult to assess precision of estimate from one
survey.

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 STRATIFIED SAMPLING
Where population embraces a number of distinct
categories, the frame can be organized into
separate "strata." Each stratum is then sampled
as an independent sub-population, out of which
individual elements can be randomly selected.
Every unit in a stratum has same chance of being
selected.
Using same sampling fraction for all strata ensures
proportionate representation in the sample.
Adequate representation of minority subgroups of
interest can be ensured by stratification & varying
sampling fraction between strata as required.

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 STRATIFIED SAMPLING……
Finally, since each stratum is treated as an
independent population, different sampling
approaches can be applied to different strata.

Drawbacks to using stratified sampling.

 First, sampling frame of entire population has
to be prepared separately for each stratum
Second, when examining multiple criteria,
stratifying variables may be related to some,
but not to others, further complicating the
design, and potentially reducing the utility of
the strata.
 Finally, in some cases (such as designs with a
large number of strata, or those with a
specified minimum sample size per group),
stratified sampling can potentially require a
36 larger sample than would other methods
 STRATIFIED SAMPLING…….

Draw a sample from each

stratum

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 CLUSTER SAMPLING
Cluster sampling is an example of 'two-stage
sampling' .
 First stage a sample of areas is chosen;
 Second stage a sample of respondents within
those areas is selected.
 Population divided into clusters of
homogeneous units, usually based on
geographical contiguity.
Sampling units are groups rather than
individuals.
A sample of such clusters is then selected.
All units from the selected clusters are studied.
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 CLUSTER SAMPLING…….
Advantages :
Cuts down on the cost of preparing a
sampling frame.
This can reduce travel and other
administrative costs.
Disadvantages: sampling error is higher for
a simple random sample of same size.
Often used to evaluate vaccination
coverage in EPI

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Difference Between Strata and
Clusters
Although strata and clusters are both non-
overlapping subsets of the population, they
differ in several ways.
All strata are represented in the sample; but
only a subset of clusters are in the sample.
With stratified sampling, the best survey
results occur when elements within strata are
internally homogeneous. However, with
cluster sampling, the best results occur when
elements within clusters are internally
heterogeneous

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 MULTISTAGE SAMPLING
 This technique, is essentially the process of taking
random samples of preceding random samples.
 Not as effective as true random sampling, but
probably solves more of the problems inherent to
random sampling.
 An effective strategy because it banks on multiple
randomizations. As such, extremely useful.
 Multistage sampling used frequently when a complete
list of all members of the population not exists and is
inappropriate.
 Moreover, by avoiding the use of all sample units in
all selected clusters, multistage sampling avoids the
large, and perhaps unnecessary, costs associated
with traditional cluster sampling.

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 MATCHED RANDOM SAMPLING
A method of assigning participants to groups in
which pairs of participants are first matched on some
characteristic and then individually assigned
randomly to groups.
 The Procedure for Matched random sampling can be
briefed with the following contexts,

 Two samples in which the members are clearly

paired, or are matched explicitly by the researcher.
 For example, IQ measurements or pairs of identical
twins.

 Those samples in which the same attribute, or

variable, is measured twice on each subject, under
different circumstances. Commonly called repeated
measures.
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 QUOTA SAMPLING
 The population is first segmented into mutually
exclusive sub-groups, just as in stratified sampling.
 Then judgment used to select subjects or units from
each segment based on a specified proportion.
 For example, an interviewer may be told to sample 200
females and 300 males between the age of 45 and 60.
 It is this second step which makes the technique one of
non-probability sampling.
 In quota sampling the selection of the sample is non-
random.
 For example interviewers might be tempted to
interview those who look most helpful. The problem is
that these samples may be biased because not
everyone gets a chance of selection. This random
element is its greatest weakness and quota versus
probability has been a matter of controversy for many
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 CONVENIENCE SAMPLING
 Sometimes known as grab or opportunity sampling or
accidental or haphazard sampling.
 A type of nonprobability sampling which involves the sample
being drawn from that part of the population which is close to
hand. That is, readily available and convenient.
 The researcher using such a sample cannot scientifically
make generalizations about the total population from this
sample because it would not be representative enough.
 For example, if the interviewer was to conduct a survey at a
shopping center early in the morning on a given day, the
people that he/she could interview would be limited to those
given there at that given time, which would not represent the
views of other members of society in such an area, if the
survey was to be conducted at different times of day and
several times per week.
 This type of sampling is most useful for pilot testing.
 In social science research, snowball sampling is a similar
technique, where existing study subjects are used to recruit
more subjects into the sample.
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CONVENIENCE SAMPLING…….

 Use results that are easy to get

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 Judgmental sampling or
Purposive sampling

The researcher chooses the sample based

on who they think would be appropriate for
the study.

This is used primarily when there is a

limited number of people that have
expertise in the area being researched

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 Questions???

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