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Unit 4-2 Testing of Hypothesis

The document provides an overview of hypothesis testing in statistical analysis, defining key concepts such as null and alternative hypotheses, test statistics, and significance levels. It discusses the decision-making process involved in hypothesis testing, including Type I and Type II errors, and the implications of rejecting or failing to reject the null hypothesis. Additionally, it outlines different types of hypothesis tests, including one-tailed and two-tailed tests, and the importance of sample size in controlling errors.

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Unit 4-2 Testing of Hypothesis

The document provides an overview of hypothesis testing in statistical analysis, defining key concepts such as null and alternative hypotheses, test statistics, and significance levels. It discusses the decision-making process involved in hypothesis testing, including Type I and Type II errors, and the implications of rejecting or failing to reject the null hypothesis. Additionally, it outlines different types of hypothesis tests, including one-tailed and two-tailed tests, and the importance of sample size in controlling errors.

Uploaded by

Fikirini Akbar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Unit 4 Modeling and

Analysis
Testing of Hypothesis

Presented by Dr. Anuradha Kanade


Introduction
The primary objective of statistical analysis is to use
data from a sample to make inferences about the
population from which the sample was drawn.

x
Hypothesis Testing
What is Hypothesis?
• “A hypothesis is an educated prediction that can be tested”
(study.com).

• “A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon”


(Wikipedia).

• “A hypothesis is used to define the relationship between two


variables” (Oxford dictionary).

• “A supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of


limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation”
(Walpole).
Testing of Hypothesis
Testing of Hypothesis:
In hypothesis testing, we decide whether to accept or
reject a particular value of a set, of particular values of a
parameter or those of several parameters. It is seen that,
although the exact value of a parameter may be unknown,
there is often same idea about the true value. The data
collected from samples helps us in rejecting or accepting our
hypothesis. In other words, in dealing with problems of
hypothesis testing, we try to arrive at a right decision about a
pre-stated hypothesis.

Definition:
A test of a statistical hypothesis is a two action
decision problem after the experimental sample values have
been obtained, the two–actions being the acceptance or
rejection of the hypothesis.
Statistical Hypothesis:

If the hypothesis is stated in terms of population parameters (such as


mean and variance), the hypothesis is called statistical hypothesis.

Example: To determine whether the wages of men and women are


equal.
A product in the market is of standard quality.
Whether a particular medicine is effective to cure a
disease.

Parametric Hypothesis:

A statistical hypothesis which refers only the value of unknown


parameters of probability Distribution whose form is known is
called a parametric hypothesis.

X ~ N ,  2 
Example: if then
  1 ,   1 ,   1 is a parametric
Null Hypothesis: H0

 The null hypothesis (denoted by H0) is a

statement that the value of a population

parameter (such as proportion, mean, or standard

deviation) is equal to some claimed value.

 We test the null hypothesis directly.

 Either reject H0 or fail to reject H0.


Example:
Ho : µ=5

The above statement is null hypothesis stating that the

population mean is equal to 5.

Another example can be taken to explain this. Suppose a

doctor has to compare the decease in blood pressure when

drugs A & B are used. Suppose A & B follow distribution with

mean µA and µB ,then

H o : µ A = µB
Alternative Hypothesis: H1

 The alternative hypothesis (denoted by H1 or

Ha or HA) is the statement that the parameter


has a value that somehow differs from the
Null Hypothesis.

 The symbolic form of the alternative


hypothesis must use one of these symbols:
, <, >.
Types of Alternative Hypothesis

We have two kinds of alternative hypothesis:-

(a) One sided alternative hypothesis

(b) Two sided alternative hypothesis

The test related to (a) is called as ‘one – tailed’


test and those related to (b) are called as ‘two
tailed’ tests.
Ho : µ = µ 0

Then

H1 : µ < µ0 or H1 : µ > µ0

One sided alternative hypothesis

H1 : µ ≠ µ0

Two sided alternative hypothesis


Note about Forming Your
Own Claims (Hypotheses)

If you are conducting a study and want


to use a hypothesis test to support
your claim, the claim must be worded
so that it becomes the alternative
hypothesis.
Test Statistic

The test statistic is a value used in making a decision


about the null hypothesis, and is found by converting
the sample statistic to a score with the assumption
that the null hypothesis is true.

The statistic that is compared with the parameter in


the null hypothesis is called the test statistic.

Test statistic for mean


Critical Region
The critical region (or rejection region) is the set of
all values of the test statistic that cause us to reject
the null hypothesis. Acceptance region
Accept H0 ,if the sample
mean falls in this region

95 % of area

Acceptance and
0.025 of area 0.025 of area
rejection regions
in case of a two- µH 0

tailed test with 5% Rejection region


significance level. Reject H0 ,if the sample mean falls
in either of these regions
Significance Level

The significance level (denoted by ) is the


probability that the test statistic will fall in the
critical region when the null hypothesis is
actually true. Common choices for  are 0.05,
0.01, and 0.10.
Critical Value
A critical value is any value that separates the
critical region (where we reject the null
hypothesis) from the values of the test
statistic that do not lead to rejection of the null
hypothesis. The critical values depend on the
nature of the null hypothesis, the sampling
distribution that applies, and the significance
level .
Two-tailed, Right-tailed,
Left-tailed Tests

The tails in a distribution are the extreme


regions bounded by critical values.
Two-tailed Test

H 0: =  is divided equally between the


two tails of the critical region

H 1: 
Means less than or greater than
Right-tailed Test

H 0: =
H 1: >
Points Right
Left-tailed Test

H 0: =
H 1: <
Points Left
P-Value

The P-value (or p-value or probability value)


is the probability of getting a value of the test
statistic that is at least as extreme as the one
representing the sample data, assuming that
the null hypothesis is true. The null
hypothesis is rejected if the P-value is very
small, such as 0.05 or less.
Two-tailed Test
If the alternative hypothesis contains the not-equal-to symbol
(), the hypothesis test is a two-tailed test. In a two-tailed
1
test, each tail has an area of 2 P.

H0: μ = k
Ha: μ  k
P is twice the
P is twice the area to the right
area to the left of of the positive
the negative test test statistic.
statistic.

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Test Test
statistic statistic
Right-tailed Test
If the alternative hypothesis contains the greater-than
symbol (>), the hypothesis test is a right-tailed test.

H0: μ = k
P is the area to
Ha: μ > k the right of the test
statistic.

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Test
statistic
Left-tailed Test
If the alternative hypothesis contains the less-than
inequality symbol (<), the hypothesis test is a left-tailed
test.

H0: μ = k

P is the area to
Ha: μ < k
the left of the test
statistic.

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Test
statistic
Making a Decision

We always test the null hypothesis.


The initial conclusion will always be
one of the following:
1. Reject the null hypothesis.
2. Fail to reject the null hypothesis.
Decision Criterion

Traditional method

Reject H0 if the test statistic falls


within the critical region.

Fail to reject H0 if the test statistic


does not fall within the critical
region.
Decision Criterion

P-value method

Reject H0 if the P-value   (where


 is the significance level, such as
0.05).

Accept H0 if the P-value > .


Decision Criterion

Confidence Intervals

Because a confidence interval estimate of a


population parameter contains the likely
values of that parameter, reject a claim that the
population parameter has a value that is not
included in the confidence interval.
Type I Error

 A Type I error is the mistake of


rejecting the null hypothesis when it
is true.
 The symbol  (alpha) is used to
represent the probability of a type I
error.
Type II Error

 A Type II error is the mistake of failing to


reject the null hypothesis when it is false.

 The symbol  (beta) is used to represent


the probability of a type II error.
There may be four possible situations that arise
in any test procedure which have been
summaries are given below:

Actual Truth of H0

Decision
H0 is true H0 is false

Accept H0 Correct Decision Type II Error

Reject H0 Type I Error Correct Decision


Controlling Type I &
Type II Errors
 For any fixed , an increase in the sample
size n will cause a decrease in 
 For any fixed sample size n, a decrease in
 will cause an increase in . Conversely,
an increase in  will cause a decrease in .
 To decrease both  and , increase the
sample size.
Hypothesis Testing Procedures

•
Interpreting a Decision
Example:
H0: (Claim) A cigarette manufacturer claims that less
than one-eighth of the US adult population smokes
cigarettes.

If H0 is rejected, you should conclude “there is


sufficient evidence to indicate that the manufacturer’s
claim is false.”

If you fail to reject H0, you should conclude “there is not


sufficient evidence to indicate that the manufacturer’s
Yo u
h a n k
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