Unit 4 Modeling and
Analysis
Testing of Hypothesis
Presented by Dr. Anuradha Kanade
Introduction
The primary objective of statistical analysis is to use
data from a sample to make inferences about the
population from which the sample was drawn.
x
Hypothesis Testing
What is Hypothesis?
• “A hypothesis is an educated prediction that can be tested”
(study.com).
• “A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon”
(Wikipedia).
• “A hypothesis is used to define the relationship between two
variables” (Oxford dictionary).
• “A supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of
limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation”
(Walpole).
Testing of Hypothesis
Testing of Hypothesis:
In hypothesis testing, we decide whether to accept or
reject a particular value of a set, of particular values of a
parameter or those of several parameters. It is seen that,
although the exact value of a parameter may be unknown,
there is often same idea about the true value. The data
collected from samples helps us in rejecting or accepting our
hypothesis. In other words, in dealing with problems of
hypothesis testing, we try to arrive at a right decision about a
pre-stated hypothesis.
Definition:
A test of a statistical hypothesis is a two action
decision problem after the experimental sample values have
been obtained, the two–actions being the acceptance or
rejection of the hypothesis.
Statistical Hypothesis:
If the hypothesis is stated in terms of population parameters (such as
mean and variance), the hypothesis is called statistical hypothesis.
Example: To determine whether the wages of men and women are
equal.
A product in the market is of standard quality.
Whether a particular medicine is effective to cure a
disease.
Parametric Hypothesis:
A statistical hypothesis which refers only the value of unknown
parameters of probability Distribution whose form is known is
called a parametric hypothesis.
X ~ N , 2
Example: if then
1 , 1 , 1 is a parametric
Null Hypothesis: H0
The null hypothesis (denoted by H0) is a
statement that the value of a population
parameter (such as proportion, mean, or standard
deviation) is equal to some claimed value.
We test the null hypothesis directly.
Either reject H0 or fail to reject H0.
Example:
Ho : µ=5
The above statement is null hypothesis stating that the
population mean is equal to 5.
Another example can be taken to explain this. Suppose a
doctor has to compare the decease in blood pressure when
drugs A & B are used. Suppose A & B follow distribution with
mean µA and µB ,then
H o : µ A = µB
Alternative Hypothesis: H1
The alternative hypothesis (denoted by H1 or
Ha or HA) is the statement that the parameter
has a value that somehow differs from the
Null Hypothesis.
The symbolic form of the alternative
hypothesis must use one of these symbols:
, <, >.
Types of Alternative Hypothesis
We have two kinds of alternative hypothesis:-
(a) One sided alternative hypothesis
(b) Two sided alternative hypothesis
The test related to (a) is called as ‘one – tailed’
test and those related to (b) are called as ‘two
tailed’ tests.
Ho : µ = µ 0
Then
H1 : µ < µ0 or H1 : µ > µ0
One sided alternative hypothesis
H1 : µ ≠ µ0
Two sided alternative hypothesis
Note about Forming Your
Own Claims (Hypotheses)
If you are conducting a study and want
to use a hypothesis test to support
your claim, the claim must be worded
so that it becomes the alternative
hypothesis.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a value used in making a decision
about the null hypothesis, and is found by converting
the sample statistic to a score with the assumption
that the null hypothesis is true.
The statistic that is compared with the parameter in
the null hypothesis is called the test statistic.
Test statistic for mean
Critical Region
The critical region (or rejection region) is the set of
all values of the test statistic that cause us to reject
the null hypothesis. Acceptance region
Accept H0 ,if the sample
mean falls in this region
95 % of area
Acceptance and
0.025 of area 0.025 of area
rejection regions
in case of a two- µH 0
tailed test with 5% Rejection region
significance level. Reject H0 ,if the sample mean falls
in either of these regions
Significance Level
The significance level (denoted by ) is the
probability that the test statistic will fall in the
critical region when the null hypothesis is
actually true. Common choices for are 0.05,
0.01, and 0.10.
Critical Value
A critical value is any value that separates the
critical region (where we reject the null
hypothesis) from the values of the test
statistic that do not lead to rejection of the null
hypothesis. The critical values depend on the
nature of the null hypothesis, the sampling
distribution that applies, and the significance
level .
Two-tailed, Right-tailed,
Left-tailed Tests
The tails in a distribution are the extreme
regions bounded by critical values.
Two-tailed Test
H 0: = is divided equally between the
two tails of the critical region
H 1:
Means less than or greater than
Right-tailed Test
H 0: =
H 1: >
Points Right
Left-tailed Test
H 0: =
H 1: <
Points Left
P-Value
The P-value (or p-value or probability value)
is the probability of getting a value of the test
statistic that is at least as extreme as the one
representing the sample data, assuming that
the null hypothesis is true. The null
hypothesis is rejected if the P-value is very
small, such as 0.05 or less.
Two-tailed Test
If the alternative hypothesis contains the not-equal-to symbol
(), the hypothesis test is a two-tailed test. In a two-tailed
1
test, each tail has an area of 2 P.
H0: μ = k
Ha: μ k
P is twice the
P is twice the area to the right
area to the left of of the positive
the negative test test statistic.
statistic.
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Test Test
statistic statistic
Right-tailed Test
If the alternative hypothesis contains the greater-than
symbol (>), the hypothesis test is a right-tailed test.
H0: μ = k
P is the area to
Ha: μ > k the right of the test
statistic.
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Test
statistic
Left-tailed Test
If the alternative hypothesis contains the less-than
inequality symbol (<), the hypothesis test is a left-tailed
test.
H0: μ = k
P is the area to
Ha: μ < k
the left of the test
statistic.
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Test
statistic
Making a Decision
We always test the null hypothesis.
The initial conclusion will always be
one of the following:
1. Reject the null hypothesis.
2. Fail to reject the null hypothesis.
Decision Criterion
Traditional method
Reject H0 if the test statistic falls
within the critical region.
Fail to reject H0 if the test statistic
does not fall within the critical
region.
Decision Criterion
P-value method
Reject H0 if the P-value (where
is the significance level, such as
0.05).
Accept H0 if the P-value > .
Decision Criterion
Confidence Intervals
Because a confidence interval estimate of a
population parameter contains the likely
values of that parameter, reject a claim that the
population parameter has a value that is not
included in the confidence interval.
Type I Error
A Type I error is the mistake of
rejecting the null hypothesis when it
is true.
The symbol (alpha) is used to
represent the probability of a type I
error.
Type II Error
A Type II error is the mistake of failing to
reject the null hypothesis when it is false.
The symbol (beta) is used to represent
the probability of a type II error.
There may be four possible situations that arise
in any test procedure which have been
summaries are given below:
Actual Truth of H0
Decision
H0 is true H0 is false
Accept H0 Correct Decision Type II Error
Reject H0 Type I Error Correct Decision
Controlling Type I &
Type II Errors
For any fixed , an increase in the sample
size n will cause a decrease in
For any fixed sample size n, a decrease in
will cause an increase in . Conversely,
an increase in will cause a decrease in .
To decrease both and , increase the
sample size.
Hypothesis Testing Procedures
•
Interpreting a Decision
Example:
H0: (Claim) A cigarette manufacturer claims that less
than one-eighth of the US adult population smokes
cigarettes.
If H0 is rejected, you should conclude “there is
sufficient evidence to indicate that the manufacturer’s
claim is false.”
If you fail to reject H0, you should conclude “there is not
sufficient evidence to indicate that the manufacturer’s
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h a n k
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