System Analysis and Design

Course Code: CSE 305

Program Evaluation Review Techniques (PERT)

Critical Path Method (CPM)

Md Rasheduzzaman
Lecturer of CSE Department, UAP
 Project Management
Project
• A project is an interrelated set of activities that has a definite
starting and ending point and that results in a unique product or
service.

Project management
• Project management is a scientific way of planning, implementing,
monitoring and controlling the various aspects of a project such as time,
money/cost, SW HW materials, manpower and other resources.
 PERT Analysis

0 PERT = Program Evaluation and Review Technique

A Program Evaluation Review Techniques (PERT) is a project

management tool used to schedule, organize, and coordinate
tasks within a project.
 Steps to Create PERT Diagram
⮚ Determine the tasks required to complete the project
and the sequence they must be done
⮚ Construction network diagram with arrows
representing activities and nodes being milestones.
⮚ Determine the Critical Path
⮚ Estimate the Time required for each activity
⮚ Calculate the variance of each Task or Activity
⮚ Calculate the Project Variance (Diff between actual and planned)
⮚ Calculate the Standard Deviation of Project Variance
⮚ Find of Z Score (Standard score, find from Normal
Distribution Table)
⮚ Update the PERT Chart as project progress
 PERT Analysis

Variance is the difference between optimistic and

pessimistic time from the mean time period.
PERT Analysis
PERT Analysis
 Project Scheduling Network Diagram

Project schedule network diagrams show the order in which

activities should be scheduled to address logical
relationships between these activities.

It typically comprises of nodes that represent activities and

arrows that show the sequence and dependencies.
Guidelines for network diagram
Guidelines for network diagram
Guidelines for network diagram
PERT Analysis
PERT Analysis
 PERT Analysis
Calculate Variance of the Project

⮚ In order to calculate the variance of the overall project, add up

the variances of the activities under critical Path.
⮚ Critical path is the path, connecting the first initial node to the
very last terminal node, of the longest duration in any project
network.
 PERT Analysis
Calculate Variance of the Project

Say for example Critical Path is Activity A, C, F, I, K Then

add up the variances of these activities to calculate the
project variance.
Let’s presume this is 2
 PERT Analysis
Calculate Standard Deviation
 PERT Analysis

Now to answer our question, “What is the probability

of completing on or before certain time period?
Let’s presume Due Date is 25 days
Expected Time of Completion is 23 days
Z Value = (Due Date – Expected Time of Completion)/ standard
deviation. Z-Score, also known as the standard score.

It comes up as 25-23/1.414=1.4144

Find the value of 1.4144 in a normal distribution table……

 PERT Analysis

You will have the value 0.9207

Which means 92%.

Or the chances of our project getting

completed in our expected time duration
is 92% and not getting in our time
duration will be 8%.
 PERT Analysis (alternate method)

A critical path is the longest path in the network.

Each node which falls under critical path has zero or
negative float (Slack).
Slack is the amount of time an activity can be delayed
without delaying the project: S = LS – ES = LF - EF
Slack = Late Finish - Early Finish (or Late Start - Early Start)

Critical path is the path of activities having zero Slack time.

PERT Analysis (alternate method)
 21
The Project Network
Activity Scheduling in Activity-on-Node Configuration

Figure: Activity-on-node configuration

 ESTIMATING TIME OF COMPLETION
Planning the schedule of the project
Time estimates include:
1) Total time for completion.
2) ES- Earliest start time: the earliest time at which the activity
can start given that its precedent activities must be completed first.

3) EF-Earliest finish time: equals to the earliest start time for the activity
plus the time required to complete the activity. Early Finish = Early Start +
Duration

4) LF- Latest finish time: the latest date/time in which the activity can be
Completed/finished without delaying the project (without causing a delay to
the project completion date.)

5) LS- Latest start time: equal to the latest finish time minus the time
required to complete the activity. Late Start = Late Finish – Duration
6) FORWARD PASS:
The early start and early finish times are calculated by
moving forward through the network and considering the
predecessor activities Considers maximum

7) BACKWARD PASS:
The latest start and finish times are calculated by moving backward
through the network.
Considers minimum

8) SLACK TIME:
Slack time for an activity is the difference between its earliest and latest
start time or between the earliest and latest finish time.
Critical path is the path of activities having zero Slack time.
Slack = Late Finish - Early Finish (or Late Start - Early Start)
PERT Analysis
The Project Network
Activity Scheduling : Earliest Times
■ ES is the earliest start time an activity can start:

■ EF is the earliest start time plus the activity time:

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The Project Network
Activity Scheduling : Latest Times
■ LS is the latest finish time an activity can start without delaying
critical path time:

■ LF is the latest finish time:

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education

The Project Network
Activity Slack Time (1 of 2)
■ Slack is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without
delaying the project: S = LS – ES = LF - EF

Critical path is the path of activities having zero Slack time.

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education

 PERT Analysis

A critical path is the longest path in the network.

Each node which falls under critical path has zero or
negative float (Slack).
The critical path is the path through the network that results in the latest
completion date of the project.
 31

The Project Network House Building Project Data (another example)

Number Activity Predecessor ET

Duration
1 Design house and obtain financing -- 3 months

2 Lay foundation 1 2 months

3 Order and receive materials 1 1 month

4 Build house 2,3 3 months

5 Select paint 2, 3 1 month

6 Select carper 5 1 month
7 Finish work 4, 6 1 month
 32
The Project Network
AON Network for House Building Project
Activity-on-Node (AON) Network
▪ A node represents an activity, with its label and time shown on
the node
▪ The branches show the precedence relationships

Figure: AON network

 33
The Project Network
Paths Through a Network

Path Events
A 1🡪2🡪4🡪7
B 1🡪2🡪5🡪6🡪7
C 1🡪3🡪4🡪7
D 1🡪3🡪5🡪6🡪7

Table:
Paths through the house-building network
 34
The Project Network
The Critical Path

The critical will be the longest path in the network requiring the
maximum amount of time but it will represent the minimum duration
of time that is required to complete all the activities or completion of
the project. From Figure :

Path A: 1 → 2 → 4 → 7 3 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 9 months

Path B: 1 → 2 → 5 → 6 → 7 3 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1= 8 months

Path C: 1 → 3 → 4 → 7 3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months

Path D: 1 → 3 → 5 → 6 → 7 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months
The Project Network: Activity Start Times

Figure: Activity start time

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education

 36
The Project Network
Activity Scheduling in Activity-on-Node Configuration

Figure: Activity-on-node configuration

 ESTIMATING TIME OF COMPLETION

Planning the schedule of the project

Time estimates include:
1) Total time for completion.
2) ES- Earliest start time: the earliest time at which the activity
can start given that its precedent activities must be completed first.

3) EF-Earliest finish time: equals to the earliest start time for the activity
plus the time required to complete the activity. Early Finish = Early Start +
Duration

4) LF- Latest finish time: the latest time in which the activity can be
completed without delaying the project.

5) LS- Latest start time: equal to the latest finish time minus the time
required to complete the activity. Late Start = Late Finish – Duration
6) FORWARD PASS:
The early start and early finish times are calculated by
moving forward through the network and considering the
predecessor activities Considers maximum

7) BACKWARD PASS:
The latest start and finish times are calculated by moving backward
through the network.
Considers minimum

8) SLACK TIME:
Slack time for an activity is the difference between its earliest and latest
start time or between the earliest and latest finish time.
Critical path is the path of activities having zero Slack time.
Slack = Late Finish - Early Finish (or Late Start - Early Start)
The Project Network
Activity Scheduling : Earliest Times
■ ES is the earliest start time an activity can start:

Figure: Earliest activity start and finish times

■ EF is the earliest start time plus the activity time:

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education
The Project Network
Activity Scheduling : Latest Times
■ LS is the latest start time an activity can start without delaying
critical path time:

Figure: Latest activity start and finish times

■ LF is the latest finish time:

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education

The Project Network
Activity Slack Time (1 of 2)
■ Slack is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without
delaying the project: S = LS – ES = LF - EF
■ Slack Time exists for those activities not on the critical path for which
the earliest and latest start times are not equal.

Activity LS ES LF EF Slack, S
*1 0 0 3 3 0
*2 3 3 5 5 0
3 4 3 5 4 1
*4 5 5 8 8 0
5 6 5 7 6 1
6 7 6 8 7 1 *Critical path

*7 8 8 9 9 0
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education
The Project Network
Activity Slack Time (2 of 2)

Figure: Activity slack

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education
 43

Example 2

Draw the AON network for this project.

What is the Critical Path and Project Duration?
 44

Example 2 - Solution
 45

Problem 2 - Critical Path and Project Duration

 46
Problem 3 – Consider the following project network.

Determine the critical path and the project duration.

 47
Problem 3 – Solution:
The critical path is A–C–F–H–J with a completion time
of 27 days.
Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Total On Critical

Activity Duration Start Start Finish Finish Slack Path?

A 2 0 0 2 2 0 Yes
B 4 2 3 6 7 1 No
C 5 2 2 7 7 0 Yes
D 2 6 15 8 17 9 No
E 1 6 16 7 17 10 No
F 8 7 7 15 15 0 Yes
G 3 8 17 11 20 9 No
H 5 15 15 20 20 0 Yes
I 4 15 16 19 20 1 No
J 7 20 20 27 27 0 Yes
 A Simple Project

Activity Immediate Expected

Predecessor Time
A - 5
B - 6
C A 4

D A, B 2
Precedence Diagram
ES Earliest Starting (time)
EF Earliest Finishing
LS Latest Starting
LF Latest Finishing

Slack Difference Time

 CRITICAL PATH METHODS(CPM)
A critical path is the longest path in the network. Each node
which falls under critical path has zero or negative float (Slack).
There are 3 steps to calculate CPM:
1. Forward Pass - To calculate the Early Start(ES) and Early
Finish(EF) of node.
2. Backward Pass - To calculate Late Start (LS) and Late Finish(LF)
of node.
3. Calculate Float and Thus CPM.

critical path of the previous example is A-C

 CRITICAL PATH METHODS(CPM)

HISTORY :
It was developed by J.E.KELLY of REMINGTON-RAND and
M.R.WALKER of DU PONT and the emphasis was
on the trade-off between the cost of project and its overall
completion time. The first test was made in 1958,when CPM was
applied to the construction of a new chemical plant.

DEFINITION:
Critical path is the sequence of activities between a project’s start
and finish that takes the longest time to complete.
 STEPS IN DETERMINING
CRITICAL PATH

• Specify the individual activities.

• Determine the sequence of the activities.

• Draw the network diagram.

• Estimate the activity completion time.

• Identify the critical path.

• Update the CPM diagram.

 4 7

1 2 5 6

3
8
Overhead cost as per the given data- Tk.50
Paths in the network diagram :
A-D-F-G-I = 32
A-D-F-H = 31
A-C-F-H = 29
A-C-F-G-I = 30
A-B-E-F-H = 30
A-B-E-F-G-I = 31
Critical path – A-D-F-G-I = 32
4 7

1 2 6
5

3
8
 TIME ESTIMATES

o Optimistic time (to) – It is the shortest time in which the

activity can be completed.
o Most likely time (tm) – It is the probable time
required to perform the activity.
o Pessimistic time (tp) – It is the longest estimated time
required to perform an activity.
o Expected time
te = to + 4tm + tp
6
 STEPS IN PERT

1. Identify the specific activities.

2. Determine proper sequence of the activities.

3. Construct the network diagram.

4. Estimate the time required for each activity.

5. Determine the critical path.

6. Update the PERT chart.

Activity Descrip Preced Optimis Most Pessimi Expecte
tion ence tic time Likely stic time d time
time

A Initial - 12
design
B Survey A 6
market
C Build A 8
prototype
D Test C 2
prototype
E Redesign B,D 3
ing
F Market E 6
testing
G Set up F 15
productio
n
1 2 4 5 6 7

A-B-E-F-G = 60
A-C-D-E-F-G = 64 (CRITICAL PATH)
 Advantages of PERT

• Expected project completion time.

• Probability of completion before a specified date.

• The critical path activities that directly impact the completion time.

• The activities that have slack time and that can lend resources to
critical path activities.

• Activity start and end dates.

 LIMITATIONS

• The PERT Formula Requires Too Much Work.

• The network charts tend to be large and unwieldy.
• Calculating the time estimates is very complex for all the
activities.
• Updating of the project is time consuming and requires high costs.
• Emphasis is laid only on time factors and cost factors are
neglected.
Difference between
CPM & PERT
Thank You