12000 40

35
10000
Decline Curve Method

Cum. Production (MMstb)

30
8000
25
Rate (stb/d)

6000 20

15
4000
10
2000
5

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Time (years)

Reserve Estimation
 Decline Curve Analysis
Contents
Importance of decline curves
Decline curve models
Decline curve plots
Applications
IT PROVIDE AN INDEPENDENT METHOD
OF RESERVE ESTIMATION,
THE RESULTS OF WHICH CAN BE COMPARED
WITH
VOLUMETRIC OR MATERIAL BALANCE.
 Decline Curve Analysis

IT PROVIDE AN INDEPENDENT METHOD

OF RESERVE ESTIMATION,
THE RESULTS OF WHICH CAN BE COMPARED
WITH
VOLUMETRIC OR MATERIAL BALANCE.
 Assumptions:

►The process must have a well defined end

point.
► That whatever causes governed in the
past will continue to govern its trend in in the
future in the uniform manner.
► Selection of variable function should be
continuous and independent to ensure
uniform change.
Variable choice
Two main variable type of decline curves are
– Rate –Time and
---Rate – Cumulative.
12000 40

35
10000

Cum. Production (MMstb)

30
8000
25
Rate (stb/d)

6000 20

15
4000
10
2000
5

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Time (years)
Variable choice

• Use of rate as dependent variable is

advantageous as it will always be available
from production statistics,
• End point to which the curve can be
extrapolated can be assessed easily .
( depending on economic rate, which can be
pre calculated )
 LIMIT

Fig.1 Production Rate – Time curve of abandoned well

Economic limit and its significance
• The end point of production decline curves is
called as ECONOMIC LIMIT
• It provides the maximum rate of production
under the prevailing conditions.
The economic limit rate is the production rate
that will just meet the direct operating expenses
of the well. or
Direct operating Cost
Economic Limit = ---------------------------------
Net Revenue / barrel
• EXAMPLE
Determine the Economic limit rate for a well with the
following data;
1.Crude oil price per barrel $90.00
2.TAX-1(e tax) 5%
3.Tax-2 (ad vel tax) 3%
4.Tax-4 (royalty) 12.5%
5. Estimated direct operating cost
at Economic limit $28000/month
• SOLUTION
Net Income = (1 - 0.125) ( 1 - 0.05) ( ! – 0.03) ( $ 90.00)
= 0.875 x 0.95 x 0.97 x 90
= $72.58 /barrel
$28000 /Month
Economic limit = -------------------------------------------
$72.58 /barrel (30.4days/month)
= 12.69 gross bbl/day = 386 gross bbl/month
Decline curves- Factors (description)
• Philosophically : Based on the factors
which have affected production in the
past will continue to do so in the future .
These factors may be given as:
– Reduction in average reservoir
pressure
– Increase in field water cut in water
drive reservoirs
– Increase in field gas –oil ratio in
depletion type fields.
– Reducing in the liquids level in
gravity drainage fields
 • These factors are complex function of
numerous parameters of reservoir, well
bore and surface handling facilities.
• Formation parameters- Φ ,k, h, s, µ, kr ,
A,C, well spacing, producing mechanism
Decline curves- Factors

and fracturing.
• Well bore conditions include-hole
diameter, formation damage, lifting
mechanism, fluid levels, completion
intervals.
• The impact of these factors is visualized
in terms of:
» Initial production rate
(Impact)

» The rate at some particular time

» Curvature of decline (shape)
» Rate of decline
Conditions of applicability
• The production must be stable over the
period being analyzed- ensured
production with the same chock size or
constant well head pressure.
• Reservoir productivity should not the
results of external causes/change in
production conditions
• Stable reservoir conditions i.e. infill
drilling, fluid injection, thermal
operations, fracturing, acidization etc.
which effect the rate must not be
included.
• Field must have uniform surface
handling facilities like pipe line,
treatment plants etc.
 Decline Curve Analysis

Decline Relationship
• Estimation of production rate specially as function of
time is also of great importance
• Under natural depletion rate normally declines with
recovery and has standard trends
• Unless natural trend is interrupted (water injection, well
shut in) the natural decline trend is expected to continue
until abandonment
• Production decline at a decreasing rate, that is, dq / dt
decreases with time as indicated in the Fig.2 and is
represented by the following relation:
Q=∫
t
• q
2
dt Where t1 and t2 are the measure of
t1
cumulative production during the
specific time
Fig.2. Graph indicating production rate versus time
 Classification of Decline Curve
The standard declines ( observed in field cases and
whose mathematical forms are derived empirically)
are Classified as:
Exponential decline
Harmonic decline
Hyperbolic decline
Each type of curve has different curvature as shown
in Fig,3
The Figure depicts rate versus time and rate versus
cumulative curves on coordinate, semi log and log-
log paper.
 Decline curve properties
• Constant percentage decline/Exponential decline:
The drop of production per unit of time is constant
fraction of production rate.
• Hyperbolic decline
The drop of production per unit of time, as a fraction
producing rate , is proportional to the fractional
power of production rate-where this power ranges
from zero to one.
• Harmonic decline
• Harmonic decline is special case of the hyperbolic
decline where power is one, and the drop in
production rate per unit time as a fraction of
producing rate is proportional to production rate.
 Actuality
• Many wells and fields actually follow a constant
percentage decline over a great portion of their
productive life, and then only deviate
significantly to other pattern (towards the end of
this period.).
• Similarly, many rate – time curves for given oil
fields will be found to be of the hyperbolic
decline type, with the hyperbolic exponent will
be in the range of 0.2 to 0.4.
• Rarely will a reservoir decline be of harmonic
nature. However equations for harmonic decline
have been developed primarily for
completeness.
Decline curve mathematics
• Effective decline rate per unit time D‫ י‬is the drop in
the rate of production from qt to qt+1 over a period
of time(1 month to 1 year) divided by production
rate at the beginning of the period Fig. 3:
q
D = (qt - qt +1)/ qt = 1 – --------
t +1
‫י‬ -------------(1)
q t

Where qt = production rate at time t

qt+1 production rate at 1time unit later.

• The mathematical treatment of production decline

curve is simplified if instantaneous or continuous
decline rate is introduced.
The NOMINAL( or CONINUOUS) decline rate ,is defined
as the negative slope of the curvature representing the
natural logarithm of production rate q versus time t Fig. 4
D = (d ln q) /d t = - d ( q / d t ) / q -------------(2)
 Production decline curve

Fig.3

Fig.4
 Constant percentage Decline
QD = (qi - q)/ α or If q versus QD is a straight line ,the nominal
decline rate is equal to the slope of the straight
α = (qi - q)/ QD line and is constant, hence the name constant
We have percentage decline

dq/dt = α x d QD/dt
q = qi -α QD
But
d QD/dt =q
Thus,
dq/dt = αq
FiG.5:Rate versus Cumulative production graph
This yield qi =production rate at the beginning of decline
αq = - 1/q x (dq/dt)=D QD =cumulative production when rate equals to q
t

∫qdq/q =-D∫0 dt or α =is the slope of straight line

0

-Dt
Rate cumulative decline

• We know that
t t
QD= ∫q dt = ∫ e dt
-Dt

0 0
QD=qi (1- e-Dt )/D =(qi - q)/D
Thus
q = q0 - DQD & q=qi e -Dt

Yield

log q = log qi - (D/2.303) x t

A plot of log q versus t on Cartesian coordinate paper or
Q versus t on semi log graph paper with q on the log scale
Will result in straight line
Example -1
Use the following production data to estimate:
A) The future production down to a rate of 50 bbl/day
B) Instantaneous (nominal or continual) decline rate.
C) Effective monthly or annual decline rate.
D) Extra time necessary to obtain future production down
to 50 bbl/day.
Fig.6
Rate cumulative graph for the Example