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The document explains the fundamentals of probability, emphasizing its importance in predicting future events and its applications in fields like meteorology and epidemiology. It covers key concepts such as experiments, outcomes, sample space, events, and the calculation of probabilities, including mutually exclusive and independent events. Additionally, it introduces basic rules of probability and the concept of conditional probability.

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mohammed nisath
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1 views

week 1

The document explains the fundamentals of probability, emphasizing its importance in predicting future events and its applications in fields like meteorology and epidemiology. It covers key concepts such as experiments, outcomes, sample space, events, and the calculation of probabilities, including mutually exclusive and independent events. Additionally, it introduces basic rules of probability and the concept of conditional probability.

Uploaded by

mohammed nisath
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Statistics for IT

PROBABILITY
Week 1
Why learn Probability?
 Probability provides information about the likelihood that something
will happen.
 Meteorologists, use weather patterns to predict the probability of rain
 In epidemiology, probability theory is used to understand the relationship
between exposures and the risk of health effects.

 Understanding probability gives you the ability to predict how


future events may turn out.
What is Probability?
 A probability provides a quantitative description of the chances or
likelihoods associated with various outcomes
Experiments and Outcomes
 Experiment – An experiment is any process that generate well defined
outcomes
 Outcome – possible result of an experiment
 Eg: If you toss 2 coins the four possible outcomes are
HH,HT,TH,TT
Sample Space
 It is the set of all possible outcomes
 e.g. All 6 faces of a die:

 e.g. All 52 cards of card pack:


Event
 Event - An event is a set of outcomes of an experiment. It is a subset
of the sample space. It is usually denoted by a capital letter
 Examples
 Experiment: Record an age
 Event A: person is 30 years old
 Event B: person is older than 65
 Experiment: Toss a die
 Event A: observe an odd number
 Event B: observe a number greater than 2
Probability of an Event
n(A) – number of elements in the set of the event A
n(S) – number of elements in the set of the sample space
P(A) – probability of event A

P(A) = n(A)
n(S)
Mutually Exclusive Events
 If two events cannot occur at the same time they are called mutually
exclusive events
 Eg: When tossing a coin, the event of getting head and tail are
mutually exclusive.
 For mutually exclusive events P (A  B) = 0
Independent Events
 If the occurrence of an event A does not affect the occurrence of
event B then A and B are independent events
 Eg: simultaneously tossing two coins
 For independent events
P (A  B) =p(A) x p(B)
Basic rules of probability
 0  P(A)  1
 P(A) = 1 – P(A)
 P (A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A  B)
Conditional Probability
 Conditional probability is a measure of the probability of an event
occurring, given that another event has already occurred.
 The conditional probability of event B given the occurrence of event A
is
P ( B | A) = P (B  A)
P(A)

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