PROBABILITY

The sample space S is the set of all possible outcome of a random

variable.
An outcome is the result of a single trial.
An event is a collection of one or more outcomes.
The probability of an event happening is:

𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑃𝑒=
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
 Determine the probabilities of selecting at random (a) a

1 man, and (b) a woman from a crowd containing 20 men

and 33 women.
20/53

33/53
Find the probability of obtaining a 4 upwards
2
2
when throwing a fair dice.
1/2

Calculate the probabilities of selecting at random:

3
(a) the winning horse in a race in which ten horses
1/10
are running,
(b) the winning horses in both the first and second 1/100
races if there are ten horses in each race.
PROBABILITY
1. The complement of an event A, denoted by A’, is the
set of all outcomes in S that are not contained in A.
2. The union of two events A and B, denoted by and
read “A or B,” is the event consisting of all outcomes that
are either in A or in B or in both events (so that the union
includes outcomes for which both A and B occur as well
as outcomes for which exactly one occurs)—that is, all
outcomes in at least one of the events.
3. The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by
and read “A and B,” is the event consisting of all
outcomes that are in both A and B.
 For the experiment in which the number of pumps in use at a

4 single six-pump gas station is observed, let , A = {0,1,2,3,4}, B

= {3,4,5,6} and C = {1,3,5}. Determine the following.
a. A’
b. (A U B)
c. A U C
d. A ∩ B
e. (A ∩ B)’
f. (A ∩ C)’
 Suppose that vehicles taking a particular freeway exit can

5 turn right (R), turn left (L), or go straight (S). Consider

observing the direction for each of three successive vehicles.
a. List all outcomes in the event A that all three vehicles go
in the same direction.
b. List all outcomes in the event B that all three vehicles take
different directions.
c. List all outcomes in the event C that exactly two of the
three vehicles turn right.
d. List all outcomes in the event D that exactly two vehicles
go in the same direction.
e. List outcome in D’ , C U D and C ∩ D.
 An engineering construction firm is currently working on

6 power plants at three different sites. Let Ai denote the

event that the plant at site i is completed by the contract
date. Use the operations of union, intersection, and
complementation to describe each of the following events
in terms of A1, A2, and A3, draw a Venn diagram, and
shade the region corresponding to each one.
a. At least one plant is completed by the contract date.
b. All plants are completed by the contract date.
c. Only the plant at site 1 is completed by the contract
date.
d. Exactly one plant is completed by the contract date.
e. Either the plant at site 1 or both of the other two plants
are completed by the contract date.
PROBABILITY
Properties:
P(S) = 1 SURE EVENT

P(null) = 0 IMPOSSIBLE EVENT

0 < P(E) < 1 ALWAYS NON-NEGATIVE

P(E) + P(E’) = 1 (DESIRED + UNDESIRED)

PROBABILITY ADDITION RULE
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if
each event cannot happen in a single trial.

𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑜𝑟 𝐵 )=𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) +𝑃(𝐵)

Non Mutually Exclusive Events
Two or more events are said to be non mutually
exclusive if each event can happen in a single trial.

𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑜𝑟 𝐵)=𝑃 ( 𝐴 )+ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )− 𝑃(𝐴𝑎𝑛𝑑𝐵)

 Determine the 𝑃(𝐴⋃𝐵) using the Venn Diagram below.

7 The sample space has 500 outcomes.

25 150

0.35

Classify the events in each experiment as being either mutually exclusive or non-

8
mutually
exclusive. NME, NME, ME
(A) The experiment is rolling a die. The first event is rolling an even number and
the
second event is rolling a prime number.
(B) The experiment is playing a game of hockey. The first event is that your team
scores a goal, and the second event is that your team wins the game.
(C) The experiment is selecting a gift. The first event is that the gift is edible and
the
second event is that the gift is an iPhone.
 In a class of 40 students, 27 like Calculus and 25 like

P1 Chemistry. How many like both Calculus and Chemistry?

12

In a commercial survey involving 1000 persons on brand

P2 preference, 120 were found to prefer brand x only, 200

prefer brand y only, 150 prefer brand z only, 370 prefer
either brand x or y but not z, 450 prefer brand y or z but
not x and 370 prefer either brand z or x but not y. How
many person have no brand preference, satisfied with any
of the three brands?
280
 What is the probability of picking a queen or king in a

9 standard deck of cards.

2/13

The probabilities of three teams A, B and C winning a

10
2
badminton competition are 1/3, 1/5 and 1/9 respectively.
Calculate the probability that
a) either A or B will win
b) either A or B or C will win 8/15
c) none of these teams will win
d) neither A nor B will win 29/45

16/45

7/15
 In a math class of 30 students, 17 are boys and 13 are girls. On a unit

11 test, 4 boys and 5 girls made an A grade. If a student is chosen at

random from the class, what is the probability of choosing a girl or an A
student?
17/30

Big Boy can solve 90% of the problem given in a

12
2
book and B can solve 70%. What is the
probability that at least one of them will solve a
problem, selected at random from the book?
0.97

In a deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability of

13 drawing a number card or a club?
43/52
 A school newspaper published the results of a recent survey. It

14 showed the following:

62% skip breakfast
24% skip lunch
22% eat both breakfast and lunch

A. Are skipping breakfast and skipping lunch mutually exclusive?

B. Create a Venn Diagram of the situation
C. Determine the probability that a randomly selected student
skips breakfast but not lunch.
D. Determine the probability that a randomly selected student
skips at least one of breakfast or lunch.
No 0.54 0.78
PROBABILITY MULTIPLICATION RULE
Dependent Events
One event has an effect on the outcome of the next
event.

𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑎𝑛𝑑𝐵 ) =𝑃 ( 𝐴) 𝑥𝑃(𝐵∨𝐴)
Independent Events
An event is independent if the outcome of one trial has
no effect on the outcome of any trial.

𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑎𝑛𝑑𝐵 ) =𝑃 ( 𝐴) 𝑥𝑃 ( 𝐵 )
 Gery has to select two students from a class of 23
15 girls and 25 boys. What is the probability that
both students chosen are boys?
25/94

A bag contains 6 red, 5 blue, and 4 yellow balls. 2 balls are drawn,

16
but the first ball is drawn without replacement. Find the following:

2 a] P (red, then blue)

b] P (blue, then blue) 1/7

2/21
A bag contains 4 red, 3 pink and 6 green balls. Two balls

17 are drawn, but the first ball drawn is not replaced.

a) Find P(red, then pink)
1/13

b) Find P(pink, then pink) 1/26

 Lawyer A speaks truth in 75% and B in 80% of the
18 cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely
to contradict each other narrating in the same
incident? 0.35

A wallet contains 4 bills of 5 dollars, 5 bills of 10

19
2
dollars and 3 bills of 20 dollars. 2 bills are chosen
randomly without replacement. Find P (drawing a
5 dollar bill followed by a 5 dollar bill).

1/11
 In a shipment of 20 apples, 3 are rotten. 3 apples
20 are randomly selected. What is the probability
that all three are rotten and are not replaced?
1/1140
Two fair dice, one colored white and one colored black, are

21
2
thrown. Find the probability that:
a) The score on the black die is 3 and on the white die is 5.
b) The score on the white die is 1 and the black die is odd.

1/36

1/12
 The probability of a component failing in one year
22 due to excessive temperature is 1/20 , due to
excessive vibration is 1/25 and due to excessive
humidity is 1/50. Determine the probabilities that
during a one-year period a component:
(a) fails due to excessive temperature and
excessive vibration, (b) fails due to excessive
vibration or excessive humidity, and (c) will not fail
because of both excessive temperature and
excessive humidity. 1/500

3/50

931/1000
 A batch of 100 capacitors contains 73 which are within

23 the required tolerance values, 17 which are below the

required tolerance values, and the remainder are above
the required tolerance values. Determine the
probabilities that when randomly selecting a capacitor
and then a second capacitor:
(a) both are within the required tolerance values when
selecting with replacement, and
(b)The first one drawn is below and the second one
drawn is above the required tolerance value, when
selection is without replacement 0.5329

0.0172
 Determine the probability that the total score is 8
24 when two like dice are thrown.

5/36
A batch of 40 components contains five which are
defective. If a component is drawn at random from the
25 batch and tested and then a second component is drawn at
random, calculate the probability of having one defective
component, both with and without replacement.
7/32 35/156

A box contains 74 brass washers, 86 steel washers and 40

26 aluminum washers. Three washers are drawn at random

from the box without replacement. Determine the
probability that all three are steel washers.
0.078
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
A discrete distribution is a probability
distribution that depicts the occurrence of
discrete (individually countable) outcomes, such
as 1,2,3 or zero.
Examples: Binomial and Poisson’s Distribution
For example, the number of accidents
per driver, the number of insects per
leaf in an orchard, the number of
thunderstorms per year, the number
of earthquakes per year.
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Properties:
 Each Probability is between 0 and 1.
 The sum of probabilities is 1.

X P(x) X P(x)
0 0.05 0 0.15
1 0.1 1 0.15
2 0.3 2 0.05
3 0.6 3 0.65

Which of the following data set is a Discrete Probability Distribution?

BINOMIAL OR REPEATED TRIALS
These are two possible outcomes of an event (success and failure) and
the possibilities of the outcome are independent and constant.

𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
𝑃=𝑛𝐶𝑟(𝑝) (𝑞)
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure
n = number of trials
r = number of successful trials
EXAMPLES
 The binomial distribution is used only when both
of two conditions are met−the test has only two
possible outcomes, and the sample must be
random. If both of these conditions are met, then
this distribution may be used to predict the
probability of a desired result.
 Determine the probabilities of having (a) at least
40 one girl and (b) at least one girl and a boy in a
family of four children, assuming equal
probability of male and female birth.
0.938 0.875

A dice is rolled nine times. Find the probabilities of

41
2
having a 4 upwards
(a) three times 0.164
(b) fewer than four times.
0.253
 A machine is producing a large number of bolts
42 automatically. In a box of these bolts, 95% are
within the allowable tolerance values with respect
to diameter, the remainder being outside of the
diameter tolerance values. Seven bolts are drawn
at random from the box. Determine the
probabilities that (a) two and (b) more than two
of the seven bolts are outside of the diameter
tolerance values.

0.0406 0.00378
 Eight coins are tossed simultaneously. The
43 probability of getting at least six heads is?

37/256

If a coin is tossed 5 times, find the probability

44
2
of:
(a) Exactly 2 heads 5/16
(b) At least 4 heads.
3/16
If the mean and variance of a binomial variate x
45 are 8 and 4 respectively then P(X<3) is :

137/65536
 A package contains 50 similar components and inspection

46 shows that four have been damaged during transit. If six

components are drawn at random from the contents of the
package determine the probabilities that in this sample (a)
one and (b) fewer than three are damaged.
0.316 0.991
Histograms of probabilities:

47
2
The probability of a student successfully completing a course of
study in three years is 0.45. Draw a histogram showing the
probabilities of 0,1,2,. . . ,5 students successfully completing
the course in three years.

0.00253 0.0207 0.0763

0.166 0.238 0.234

POISSON’S DISTRIBUTION
The Poisson distribution is actually a limiting case of a binomial distribution
when the number of trials n, gets very large and the probability of success p
is small. When the mean is less than 5 use Poisson’s Distribution.

=⋋
𝑋 −⋋
⋋ 𝑒
𝑃=
𝑋!
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure
n = number of trials
X = number of successful trials
POISSON’S DISTRIBUTION
Conditions that must be satisfied:
• The events occur at random.
• The events are independent from one another.
• The average rate of occurrences is constant.
• There are no simultaneous occurrences.
Examples:
1.The number of vehicles passing a specific point of a road.
2.The number of inquiries received by RI office staff in one
month.
3.The number of night deliveries in a maternity hospital
between 10:00 pm and 4:00 am.
 If 3% of the gearwheels produced by a company
48 are defective, determine the probabilities that in
a sample of 80 gearwheels (a) two and (b) more
than two will be defective.
0.261 0.430

A production department has 35 similar milling

49
2
machines. The number of breakdowns on each
machine averages 0.06 per week. Determine the
probabilities of having (a) one, and (b) fewer than
three machines breaking down in any week.
0.257
0.650
 A random variable X has a Poisson distribution
50 with parameter λ such that P (X = 1) = (0.2) P (X
= 2). Find P (X = 0).
− 𝟏𝟎
𝒆
Consider a computer system with job arrival stream at
51
2
an average of 2 per minute. Determine the probability
that in any one minute interval there will be
a. 0 jobs 0.135
b. Exactly 3 jobs
0.184
c. At most 3 arrivals
0.857
 The number of cars passing a point on a road
52 may be modelled by Poisson distribution. At an
average, 4 cars enters the Caibaan Diversion
Road in Tacloban City every 5 minutes. Find the
probability that in a 5-minute period (a) two cars
go past and (b) fewer than 3 cars go past.

0.147

0.238
 The probability of a person having an accident in
53 a certain period of time is 0.0003. For a
population of 7500 people, draw a histogram
showing the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5
people having an accident in this period.
0.105 0.268 0.113

0.237 0.200 0.051

 The probability that an employee will go to
54 hospital in a certain period of time is 0.0015. Use
a Poisson distribution to determine the probability
of more than two employees going to hospital
during this period of time if there are 2000
employees on the payroll.

0.577
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Conditional probability is defined as the likelihood of an

event or outcome occurring, based on the occurrence of
a previous event or outcome.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
FORMULA: Probability of event B given event A occurred.
P(A) Total Outcomes
𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑃 (𝐵∨ 𝐴)= A
B
Conditional Event
Desired Event
𝑃 ( 𝐴) P (A ⋂ B) Desired Outcomes

𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) 𝑥 𝑃( 𝐴∨𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵∨ 𝐴)=
𝑃( 𝐴)
 You are off to soccer, and want to be the
1 Goalkeeper, but that depends who is the Coach
today: with Coach Sam the probability of being
Goalkeeper is 0.5 with Coach Alex the probability
of being Goalkeeper is 0.3 Sam is Coach more
often ... about 6 out of every 10 games. What is
the probability you will be a Goalkeeper today if
Alex is the coach?
0.286
 A test for Lyme disease is 60% accurate when a person has the

2
disease and 99% accurate when a person doesn’t have the disease.
In Country Y, 0.01% of the population has Lyme disease. What is the
probability that a person chosen randomly from the population who
test positive for the disease actually has the disease?

0.6%

3 Companies A,B and C supply 25%, 35% and 40% of the

3 notebooks to a school. Past experience shows that 5%, 4%

and 2% of the notebooks produced by these companies are
defective. If a notebook was found to be defective, what is the
probability that the notebook was supplied by B? C? and A?
0.41

0.23

0.36
 Two boxes containing candies are placed on a table. The

4 boxes are labelled B1 and B2. Box B1 contains 7

cinnamon candies and 4 ginger candies. Box B2 contains
3 cinnamon candies and 10 pepper candies. The box are
arranged so that the probability of selecting box B1 is
1/3 and the probability of selecting box B2 is 2/3. Cita is
blindfolded and asked to select a candy. She will win a
TV if he selects a cinnamon candy. If he wins a TV, what
is the probability that the candy was from the first box?

0.58
HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

The hypergeometric distribution is used to

determine the probability of a certain number of
"successes" in a series of draws made without
replacement from a fixed population. The distribution
depends on the size of the population, the number of
draws, and the number of "successes" in the population.
HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

The hypergeometric distribution is used to

determine the probability of a certain number of
"successes" in a series of draws made without
replacement from a fixed population. The distribution
depends on the size of the population, the number of
draws, and the number of "successes" in the population.
HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
The assumptions leading to the hypergeometric
distribution are as follows:
1. The population or set to be sampled consists of N
individuals, objects, or elements (a finite population).
2. Each individual can be characterized as a success (S)
or a failure (F), and there are M successes in the
population.
3. A sample of n individuals is selected without
replacement in such a way that all is equally likely to
be chosen.
HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
CONDITIONS:
1. If M < n then maximum X value is M.
2. If M > n then the maximum X value is n.
3. If (N-M) > n then the minimum X value is 0.
4. If (N-M) < n the minimum value is X = n – (N-M).
HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
The mean and variance of the hypergeometric
distribution are:

Finite population correction factor. This factor is less

than 1, so the hypergeometric variable has smaller
variance than does the binomial distribution.
 During a particular period a university’s information

1
technology office received 20 service orders for problems
with printers, of which 8 were laser printers and 12 were
inkjet models. A sample of 5 of these service orders is to be
selected for inclusion in a customer satisfaction survey.
Suppose that the 5 are selected in a completely random
fashion, so that any particular subset of size 5 has the same
chance of being selected as does any other subset. What
then is the probability that exactly x (x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5) of
the selected service orders were for inkjet printers?

0.0036 0.0541 0.238

0.397 0.255 0.051

 Five individuals from an animal population thought to

2 be near extinction in a certain region have been

caught, tagged, and released to mix into the
population. After they have had an opportunity to mix,
a random sample of 10 of these animals is selected.
Let X = the number of tagged animals in the second
sample. If there are actually 25 animals of this type in
the region, what is the probability that (a) X = 2? (b) X
is less than or equal to 2?
0.385 0.699
 An electronics store has received a shipment of 20 table

3 radios that have connections for an iPod or iPhone. Twelve

of these have two slots (so they can accommodate both
devices), and the other eight have a single slot. Suppose
that six of the 20 radios are randomly selected to be
stored under a shelf where the radios are displayed, and
the remaining ones are placed in a storeroom. Let among
the radios stored under the display shelf that have two
slots.
a. Compute P(X=2), P(X2) and P(X .
b. Calculate the mean value and standard deviation of X.

0.119 0.137 0.982

3.6
NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The assumptions leading to the hypergeometric
distribution are as follows:
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of
independent trials.
2. Each trial can result in either a success (S) or a failure
(F).
3. The probability of success is constant from trial to
trial.
4. The experiment continues (trials are performed) until
a total of r successes have been observed, where r is
a specified positive integer.
NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

The random variable of interest is x = number of

failures that precede the r success; x is called a negative
binomial random variable because, in contrast to the
binomial, the number of successes is fixed and the
number of trials is random.

r is the number of success.

Where x is total trial minus number of success.
NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

In some sources, the negative binomial is taken to

be the number of trials rather than the number of
failures. In the special case r = 1 ,
NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The mean and variance of the negative binomial
distribution are:

Finite population correction factor. This factor is less

than 1, so the hypergeometric variable has smaller
variance than does the binomial distribution.
 A pediatrician wishes to recruit 5 couples, each of

1 whom is expecting their first child, to participate in a

new natural childbirth regimen. Let p = P(a randomly
selected couple agrees to participate. If p = 0.2, what is
the probability that 15 couples must be asked before 5
are found who agree to participate? That is S = {agrees
to participate}, what is the probability that 10 F’s occur
before the fifth S? The probability that at most 10 F’s
are observed (at most 15 couples are asked) is?
0.034 0.164
 Jim is writing an exam with multiple-choice
2 questions, and his probability of attempting the
question with the right answer is 60%. What is
the probability that Jim gives the third correct
answer for the fifth attempted question?

0.2074
 If we are told that the probability Colette scores a
3 goal is 0.78, what is the likelihood that she will
make her fifth goal on her eight shot?

0.1076

An oil company conducts a geological study that

4 indicates that an exploratory oil well should have
a 20% chance of striking oil. What is the
probability that the first strike comes on the third
well drilled? What is the mean and variance of
the number of wells that must be drilled if the oil
company wants to set up three producing wells?
0.128
 A sculptor is making 3 pieces to exhibit at an art
5 gallery. There is a probability of 0.75 that every
piece of wood she carves into will be good
enough to be part of the exhibit. What is the
probability that she uses 4 pieces of wood or less
in order to produce the 3 final to exhibit at the
gallery? 0.7383