1

MODULE
IV
PROBABIL
ITY
Dr. Divya P. Velayudhan
Assistant Professor
SIMS, Kodakara
Introduction to Probability

•Experiments, Outcomes, Events and Sample

Spaces

• What is probability?

• Basic Rules of Probability

• Probabilities of Compound Events

 3
Introduction

 Nothing in life is certain. In everything we do, we gauge

the chances of successful outcomes, from business to
medicine to the weather
 Element of uncertainty; unable to predict the future with
certainty
 A probability provides a quantitative description of the
chances or likelihoods associated with various outcomes
 It provides a bridge between descriptive and inferential
statistics
 4
Probabilistic vs Statistical
Reasoning

 Suppose I know exactly the proportions of car makes in

India. Then I can find the probability that the first car I
see in the street is from TATA. This is probabilistic
reasoning as I know the population and predict the
sample
 Now suppose that I do not know the proportions of car
makes in India, but would like to estimate them. I
observe a random sample of cars in the street and then
I have an estimate of the proportions of the population.
This is statistical reasoning
Probability

Population Sample
Statistics
 5
What is Probability?

Probability is the chance something will

happen
 6
Basic Concepts

 An Experiment is the process by which an observation

(or measurement) is obtained.
 Random Experiment is the one in which the outcomes
cannot be predicted with certainty
 An Event is an outcome of an experiment, usually
denoted by a capital letter.
 The basic element to which probability is applied
 It is the subset of possible outcomes
 When an experiment is performed, a particular event
either happens, or it doesn’t!
 7
Random Experiment

 A random experiment is an experiment that has two or more outcomes which

vary in an unpredictable manner from trial to trail when conducted under
uniform conditions.
 In a random experiment, all the possible outcomes are known in advance but
none of the outcomes can be predicted with certainty.

For example, tossing of a coin is a random experiment because it has two

outcomes (head and tail), but we cannot predict any of them which certainty.
 8

Experiment Experimental
Outcomes
Toss a coin Head, tail
Select a part for inspection Defective,
nondefective
Conduct a sales call Purchase, no purchase
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Play a football game Win, lose, tie
 9
Basic Concepts

 An event that cannot be decomposed is called a simple

event.
 Denoted by E
 Each simple event will be assigned a probability,
measuring “how often” it occurs.
 The set of all simple events of an experiment is called
the sample space, S.
 10
Sample Space

 Sample Space: A set S that consists of all possible outcomes of a random

experiment is called a sample space, and each outcome is called a sample
point.
 Often there will be more than one sample space that can describe outcomes of
an experiment, but there is usually only one that will provide the most
information.

 If we toss a die, one sample space, or set of all possible outcomes, is

given by {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} while another is {odd, even}.
 12
Events

 An event is a subset A of the sample space S, i.e., it is a set of possible outcomes.

 If the outcome of an experiment is an element of A, we say that the event A has
occurred.
 An event consisting of a single point of S is often called a simple or elementary
event.
 13
Experiments and Events

 Experiment: Record an age

 A: person is 30 years old
 B: person is older than 65
 Experiment: Toss a die
 A: observe an odd number
 B: observe a number greater than 2
 14
Sample Point

 Every indecomposable outcome of a random experiment is called a sample

point.
 It is also called simple event or elementary outcome.

Eg. When a die is thrown, getting ‘3’ is a sample point.

 15

 Sure Event (Certain Event): An event whose occurrence is inevitable is called

sure even. Eg:- Getting a white ball from a box containing all while balls.
 Impossible Events: An event whose occurrence is impossible, is called impossible
event. Eg:- Getting a white ball from a box containing all red balls.
 Uncertain Events: An event whose occurrence is neither sure nor impossible is
called uncertain event. Eg:- Getting a white ball from a box containing white balls
and black balls
 16

 Equally likely Events: Two events are said to be equally likely if anyone of them cannot be
expected to occur in preference to other. For example, getting herd and getting tail when a
coin is tossed are equally likely events.
 Mutually exclusive events: A set of events are said to be mutually exclusive of the
occurrence of one of them excludes the possibility of the occurrence of the others.
 Exhaustive Events: A group of events is said to be exhaustive when it includes all possible
outcomes of the random experiment under consideration.
 Dependent Events: Two or more events are said to be dependent if the happening of one of
them affects the happening of the other.
 17
Basic Concepts

 Two events are mutually exclusive if, when one event

occurs, the other cannot, and vice versa.
Experiment: Toss a die Not Mutually
–A: observe an odd numberExclusive
–B: observe a number greater
than 2 B and C?
Mutually
–C: observe a 6Exclusive B and D?

–D: observe a 3
 18
Example

Toss a die:
11 E1
22
S ={E1, E2, E3, E4,
E2
E5, E6} S
33
E3 •E1 •E3
44
E4 •E5
55
E5 •E2 •E4 •E6
66
E6
Simple events Sample space
19
 20
Basic Concepts

S
•E1 •E3
•The die toss: A •E5
– A: an odd number B
– B: a number > 2 •E2 •E4 •E6

A ={E1, E3,
E5}
B ={E3, E4, E5,
 An eventE
is6}
a collection of one or more
 21
The Probability of an Event

 The probability of an event A measures “how often” A will occur.

 We write P(A).
 Suppose that an experiment is performed n times. The relative
frequency for an event A is

Number of timesA occurs f


n n
 22
The Probability of an Event

 P(A) must be between 0 and 1.

 If event A can never occur, P(A) = 0. If event A always
occurs when the experiment is performed, P(A) =1.
 The sum of the probabilities for all simple events in S
equals 1.

•• The
The probability
probability ofof an
an event
event A A is
is
found
found by
by adding
adding the
the probabilities
probabilities of
of all
all
the
the simple
simple events
events contained
contained in
in A.
A.
 23
Using Simple Events

 The probability of an event A is equal to the sum of

the probabilities of the simple events contained in A
 If the simple events in an experiment are equally
likely, you can calculate

n A number of simple events in A

P ( A)  
N total number of simple events
 24

Toss a fair coin twice. What is the

probability of observing at least one
head?
 25
Solution

Toss a fair coin twice. What is the probability of

observing at least one head?
1st Coin 2nd Coin Ei
P(Ei) H
H HH
HH 1/4 P(at
H P(atleast
least11head)
head)
H
==P(E
P(E1))+
+P(E
P(E2))+
+P(E
P(E3))
TT HT
HT 1/4 1 2 3

=
=1/4
1/4+
+1/4
1/4+
+1/4
1/4=
=3/4
3/4
H
H TH
TH 1/4
TT
TT
1/4
TT TT
 26

A bowl contains three marbles- one red, one

blue and one green.
A child selects two marbles at random. What is
the probability that at least one is red?
 27

1st 2nd Ei P(Ei)

m RB
RB 1/6
m
m RG
RG 1/6 P(at
P(atleast
least11red)
red)
m ==P(RB)
P(RB)+ +P(BR)+
P(BR)+P(RG)
P(RG)+
+
m
BR
BR 1/6 P(GR)
P(GR)
m
BG
BG 1/6 =
=4/6
4/6=
=2/3
2/3
m
m GB
GB 1/6
m GR
GR 1/6
 28

The sample space of

throwing a pair of
dice is
 Event Simple events Probability
Dice add to 3 (1,2),(2,1) 2/36
Dice add to 6 (1,5),(2,4), (3,3),(4,2), (5,1) 5/36

Red die show 1 (1,1),(1,2), (1,3),(1,4), (1,5),(1,6) 6/36

Green die show 1 (1,1),(2,1), (3,1),(4,1), (5,1),(6,1) 6/36
 30
Types of Probability

Three conceptual approaches of Probability Theory

 Classical Approach
 Relative frequency Approach
 Subjective Approach
 Axiomatic Approach
 31
Classical Probability

number of outcomes where the event occurs

P ( A) 
total number of possible outcomes
 It is often called as priori probability
 We can state the answer in advance without the
experiment, based on logical reasoning
 Equally likely outcome
 32

Limitations
 Problem when applied in case of less orderly decision
problems
 Assumes away situations that are unlikely but that
could conceivably happen (coin landing on its edge)
 Assumes a kind of symmetry about the world
 ASREAL LIFE SITUATIONS ARE DISORDERLY AND
UNLIKELY
 33
Relative Frequency of Occurrence

 Based on experimentation or historical data

 If an experiment occurs N times and a certain outcome
of this experiment occurs m times, then its probability is
m/N
 34
Subjective Probabilities

 We can use any data available as well as our experience

and intuition, but ultimately a probability value should
express our degree of belief that the experimental
outcome will occur
 35

 The exponents of personalistie approach defines probability as a measure of personal

confidence or belief based on whatever evidence is available.
 For example, if a teacher wants to find out the probability that Mr. X topping in M.Com
examination, he may assign a value between zero and one according to his degree of
belief for possible occurrence. He may take into account such factors as the past
academic performance in terminal examinations etc. and arrive at a probability figure.
The probability figure arrived under this method may vary from person to person.
Hence it is called subjective method of probability.
 36
Axiomatic Approach (Modern
Approach)

 The probability calculations are based on axioms

 Axiomatic probability includes the concept of both
classical and empirical definitions of probability
 It assumes finite sample space
 The three axioms are:
(i) P ( A) 0 (Probability is a nonnegative number)
(ii) P () 1 (Probability of the whole set is unity)
(iii) If A  B  , then P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B ).
 37
Theorems of Probability

 There are two important theorems of probability. They are :

1. Addition Theorem
2. Multiplication Theorem
 38
Theorems of Probability

Addition Theorem
 Here, there are 2 situations.
(a) Events are mutually exclusive
(b) Events are not mutually exclusive
 39
Theorems of Probability

(a) Addition theorem (Mutually Exclusive Events)

If two events, ‘A’ and ‘B’, are mutually exclusive the probability of the occurrence
of either ‘A’ or ‘B’ is the sum of the individual probability of A and B.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
i.e., P(A ꓴ B) = P(A) + P(B)
 40
Theorems of Probability

(b)Addition theorem (Not mutually exclusive events)

If two events, A and B are not mutually exclusive the probability of the occurrence
of either A or B is the sum of their individual probability minus probability for both
to happen.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and
B)
i.e., P(AꓴB) = P(A) + P(B) –
P(A∩B)
 41
Exercise

1. The probability that a contractor will get a plumping contract is

2/3 and the probability that he will not get an electric contract is
5/9. If the probability of getting at least one contract is 4/5, what is
the probability that he will get both the contracts?
2. What is the probability of picking a card that was red or black?
3. If P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.6, P(A∩B) = 0.2. Find P(A’), P(AꓴB).
 42
MULTIPLICATION THEOREM

Here there are two situations:

 (a) Events are independent
 (b) Events are dependent
 43

(a)Multiplication theorem (independent events)

If two events are independent, then the probability of occurring both
will be the product of the individual probability
P(A and B) = P(A).P(B)
i.e., P(AꓵB) = P(A).P(B)
 44
Exercise

1. A bag contains 5 white balls and 8 black balls. One ball is drawn
at random from the bag and is then replaced. Again another one is
drawn. Find the probability that both the balls are white.
2. Single coin is tossed for three times. What is the probability of
getting head in all the 3 times?
 45

(b)Multiplication theorem (dependent Events):-

 If two events, A and B are dependent, the probability of occurring 2nd
event will be affected by the outcome of the first.
P(AꓵB) = P(A).P(B/A)
 46
Exercise

1. A bag contains 5 white balls and 8 black balls. One ball is drawn
at random from the bag. Again, another one is drawn without
replacing the first ball. Find the probability that both the balls
drawn are white.
 47
Exercise

2. The probability that ‘A’ solves a problem in Maths is 2/5 and the
probability that ‘B’ solves it is 3/8. If they try independently find the
probability that :-
(i) Both solve the problem.
(ii) at least one solve the problem.
(iii) none solve the problem.
 48

• Probability of solving the problem by A, P(A)=2/5​

• Probability of solving the problem by B, P(B)=3/8

• Since the problem is solved independently by A and B,

• P(AB)=P(A)⋅P(B)

=2/5 x 3/8 = 3/20

 49

• P (atleast one of them solve the problem)

• P(AꓴB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

=2/5 + 3/8 - 6/40

= 5/8
P(A’ ∩ B’) = P(A’) x P(B’)
=3/5 x 5/8
=3/8
 50
Exercise

3. A university has to select an examiner from a list of 50 persons. 20 of them are

women and 30 men. 10 of them know Hindi and 40 do not. 15 of them are
teachers and remaining are not. What is the probability that the university
selecting a Hindi knowing woman teacher?
 51

• P(H∩W∩T) = P(H) x P(W) x P(T)

= 10/50 x 20/50 x 15/50
= 3/125
 52

4. ‘A’ speaks truth in 70%cases and ‘B’ in 85% cases. In what percentage of
cases they likely to contradict each other in stating the same fact?
 53

• P(A’) AND P(B) OR P(A) AND P(B’)

= P(A’).P(B) + P(A).P(B’)
= (70/100). (15/100) + (30/100). (85/100)
= 0.36
 54

5. 20% of students in a university are graduates and 80% are undergraduates. The
probability that graduate student is married is 0.50 and the probability that an
undergraduate student is married is 0.10. If one student is selected at random, what
is the probability that the student selected is married?
 55

6. Two sets of candidates are competing for the position on the board of directors
of a company. The probability that the first and second sets will win are 0.6 and 0.4
respectively. If the first set wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0.8
and the corresponding probability if the second set wins is 0.3. What is the
probability that the new product will be introduced?
 63
Probabilities under Conditions of
Statistical Independence

Two
Two events,
events, A A and
and B, B, are
are said
said to
to be
be Statistically
Statistically
independent
independent ifif the
the occurrence
occurrence or
or non-occurrence
non-occurrence ofof
one
one of
of the
the events
events does
does not
not change
change thethe probability
probability of
of
the
the occurrence
occurrence of
of the
the other
other event.
event.
 Three types of Probabilities under Statistical
Independence:
 Marginal
 Joint
 Conditional
 64
Marginal Probabilities Statistical
Independence

 Marginal or Unconditional Probability is the simple

probability of the occurrence of an event

 Example:the outcome of toss of a fair coin is an

event that is statistically independent of the
outcome of every other toss of the coin
 P(H), P(T)
 65
Joint Probabilities Statistical
Independence

 The probability of two or more independent events

occurring together or in succession is the product of
their marginal probabilities
P(AB) = P(A) x P(B)
 Example:two successive toss of a coin, Probability of
head on first toss and probability of head on second
toss
P(H1H2)= P(H1) x P(H2) = 0.5 x 0.5
 Conditional Probabilities 66
under Statistical
Independence
 The probability that A occurs, given that event B has
occurred is called the conditional probability of A
given B andPis( defined
A | B) asP ( A)

“given
Two
Two events
events AA and ” independent
and BB are
are independent ifif and
and only
only ifif
P(A|B)
P(A|B) =
= P(A)
P(A) or
or P(B|A)
P(B|A) =
= P(B)
P(B)
Otherwise,
Otherwise, they
they are
are dependent.
dependent.
 67
Example 1

Toss a fair coin twice. Define

 A: head on second toss
P(A|B)
P(A|B) =
=½ ½
 B: head on first toss
HH
HH 1/4 P(A|not
P(A|not B)
B) ==
HT
½
½
HT 1/4
P(A) does not A and B
TH 1/4
TH change, are
TT
1/4 whether B
TT independe
happens or nt!
not…
 68
Probabilities under Conditions of
Statistical Dependence

 Statistical Dependence exists when the possibility of some

event is dependent on or affected by the occurrence of
some other event
 Three types of Probabilities under Statistical Dependence
are:
 Conditional
 Joint
 Marginal
 Conditional Probabilities 69
under Statistical
Dependence
 The probability that A occurs, given that event B has
occurred is called the conditional probability of A
given B and is defined as
P ( BA)
P ( B | A) 
P ( A)
 70
BAYES’ THEOREM

 Probabilities can be revised as more information is gained

 The origin of the concept of obtaining posterior probabilities with
limited information is attributable to the Reverend Thomas Bayes
 The basic formula for conditional probability under dependence is
called Bayes’ Theorem
 It offers a powerful statistical method of evaluating new information
and revising prior estimates
 Example

 One box containing 10 balls

 3 are colored and dotted
 1 is colored and striped
 2 are grey and dotted
 4 are grey and striped
What is the probability that a colored ball drawn is dotted?
What is the probability that a colored ball drawn is striped?
 72

It can be reframed as “ what is the conditional

probability that this ball is dotted, given that it is
colored?”
P(D|C) = 0.3/0.4
P(S|C) = 0.1/0.4
 73
Joint Probabilities under Statistical
Dependence

 The conditional probability under conditions of

statistical dependence is:
P(B|A) = P(BA) / P(A)
We have, the Joint Probability under Statistical
Dependence as :
P(BA)= P(B|A) x P(A)
 74
Marginal Probabilities under
Statistical Dependence

 Computed by summing up the probabilities of all the joint events in which

the simple event occurs
Example:
P(C) = P(CD) + P(CS)
P(G) = P(GD) + P(GC)
 Calculating Probabilities for 75
Unions and Complements

 There are special rules that will allow you to calculate

probabilities for composite events.
 The Additive Rule for Unions:
 For any two events, A and B, the probability of their union,
P(A B), is

P ( A  B ) P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A  B )
A B
 Example: Additive 76
Rule

Example: Suppose that there were 120 students in the

classroom, and that they could be classified as follows:
Brown Not Brown
A: brown hair Male 20 40
P(A) = 50/120
B: female Female 30 30
P(B) = 60/120
P(AB)
P(AB) =
= P(A)
P(A) +
+ P(B)
P(B) ––
P(AB)
P(AB)
=
= 50/120
50/120 +
+ 60/120
60/120 -- 30/120
30/120
=
= 80/120
80/120 =
= 2/3
2/3
 Example: Two Dice

A: red die show 1

B: green die
show 1

P(AB)
P(AB) =P(A)
=P(A) +
+ P(B)
P(B) ––
P(AB)
P(AB)
=
= 6/36
6/36 +
+ 6/36
6/36 –– 1/36
1/36
 78
A Special Case

When two events A and B are mutually exclusive,

P(AB) = 0 and P(AB) = P(A) + P(B).

Brown Not Brown

A: male with brown hair
P(A) = 20/120 Male 20 40
B: female with brown hair Female 30 30
P(B) = 30/120

A and B are
P(AB)
P(AB) == P(A)
P(A) +
+
mutually exclusive, P(B)
P(B)
so that =
= 20/120
20/120 +
+ 30/120
30/120
 Example: Two Dice

A: dice add to 3
B: dice add to 6

A and B are
mutually exclusive,
so that

P(AB)
P(AB) =
= P(A)
P(A) +
+
P(B)
P(B)
=
= 2/36
2/36 +
+ 5/36
5/36
 Calculating 80
Probabilities
for Complements
 We know that for any event A:
 P(A AC) = 0 AC

 Since either A or AC must occur,

A
P(A AC) =1
 so that P(A AC) = P(A)+ P(AC) = 1
P(A
P(A )) =
CC
=11 –– P(A)
P(A)
 81
Example

Select a student at random from the classroom. Define:

A: male Brown Not Brown
P(A) = 60/120 Male 20 40
B: female Female 30 30
P(B) = ?

A and B are P(B)

P(B) =
= 1-
1- P(A)
P(A)
complementary, =
= 1-
1- 60/120
60/120 =
= 60/120
60/120
so that
 The Multiplicative Rule 82

for Intersections
 For any two events, A and B, the probability that both A
and B occur is
P(A B) =
P(A B) = P(A)
P(A) P(B
P(B given
given that
that A
A
occurred)
occurred) =
= P(A)P(B|A)
P(A)P(B|A)

• If the events A and B are independent, then the

probability that both A and B occur is

P(A B) =
P(A B) = P(A)
P(A)
 Bayes’ Rule

Let S1 , S2 , S3 ,..., Sk be mutually exclusive and

exhaustive events with prior probabilities P(S1), P(S2),
…,P(Sk). If an event A occurs, the posterior probability
of Si, given that A occurred is
Proof
P( ASi )
P( Si ) P( A | Si ) P( A | Si )   P( ASi ) P( Si ) P( A | Si )
P( Si | A)  for i  1, 2,...k P( Si )
 P( Si ) P( A | Si ) P( ASi ) P( Si ) P( A | Si )
P( Si | A)  
P( A)  P( Si ) P( A | Si )
 84

Steps in computation
1. Find the prior probability
2. Find the conditional probability.
3. Find the joint probability by multiplying step 1 and step 2.
4. Find posterior probability as percentage of total joint probability.
 85
POSTERIOR PROBABILITIES

 Finding new posterior estimate

 Assume equal number of deformed dice in a bowl.
one half of them, Ace comes with a probability of
0.40. Other half, ace comes with a probability of
0.70------ Type I and Type II.
 What is the probability that it is a type I die?
 86
Finding the Marginal Probability of
getting an Ace

Elementary Probability of P( Ace| P(Ace,

Event Elementary Elementary Elementary
Event Event) Event)

Type I 0.5 0.40 0.4 x 0.5 =

0.20

Type II 0.5 0.70 0.7 x 0.5 =

0.35

1.0 P(Ace) =
0.55
 87

 To find the probability that the die we have drawn

is type I, we use the formula
P(B|A) = P(BA)/ P(A)
Which is, P(type I| Ace) = P(type I Ace)/P(Ace)
= 0.20/0.55
= 0.364
 88
Problem

MALE FEMALE
Btech 20 10 3
0
Non Btech 30 20 5
0
5 3
0 0 8
0
 89

 Marginal Probability
 P(Male) = 50/80
 P(Btech) = 30/80
 Joint Probability
 P(Btech Male) = 20/80
 P(Male Non Btech) = 30/80
 Conditional Probability
 P(Male|Btech) = 20/30
 P(Btech|Male) = 20/50
 90

Prior P(B/G) P(GB) P(G|B)

P(G)
Male 50/80 20/50 20/80 (20/80)/(30/80)
=20/30
Female 30/80 10/30 10/80 (10/80)/(30/80)
= 10/30
P(B) = P(BM) +P(BF) = 30/80

P(m|B) = (20/80) / (30/80)

= 20/30
 91
Exercise

1. A manufacturing firm produces units of products in 4 plants, A, B, C and D. From

the past records of the proportions of defectives produced at each plant, the following
conditional probabilities are set:-
A: 0.5; B: 0.10; C:0.15 and D:0.02
The first plant produces 30% of the units of the output, the second plant produces
25%, third 40% and the forth 5%. A unit of the products made at one of these plants is
tested and is found to be defective. What is the probability that the unit was produced
in Plant C.
 92
Exercise

2. In a bolt manufacturing company machine I, II and III manufacture respectively

25%, 35% and 40%. Of the total of their output, 5%, 4% and 2% are defective bolts. A
bolt is drawn at random from the products and is found to be defective. What are the
probability that it was manufactured by :-
(a)Machine I
(b) Machine II
(c)Machine III
 93
Exercise

3. The probability that a doctor will diagnose a particular disease correctly is 0.6. The
probability that a patient will die by his treatment after correct diagnosis is 0.4 and the
probability of death by wrong diagnosis is 0.7. A patient of the doctor who had the
disease died. What is the probability that his disease was not correctly diagnosed?
 94
Exercise

4. There are two Urns, one containing 5 white balls and 4 black balls; and the other
containing 6 white balls and 5 black balls. One Urn is chosen and one ball is drawn. If
it is white, what is the probability that the Urn selected is the first?
 Probability Distributions 95

for Discrete Random

Variables
 The probability distribution for a discrete
random variable x resembles the relative
frequency distributions.
 It is a graph, table or formula that gives the
possible values of x and the probability p(x)
associated with each Wevalue.
must have
0  p ( x) 1 and  p ( x) 1
 96
Example
x
 Toss 1/8 3 P(x
P(x =
= 0)
0) =
= 1/8
1/8
a fair HHH
HHH
P(x
P(x =
= 1)
1) =
= 3/8
3/8
coin three HHT
HHT 1/8 2
P(x
P(x =
= 2)
2) =
= 3/8
3/8
times and 1/8 2
HTH
HTH P(x
P(x =
= 3)
3) =
= 1/8
1/8
define 1/8 2
THH
THH
x= x p(x)
HTT 1/8 1
number HTT 0 1/8
1/8 1
of THT
THT 1 3/8
heads. 1/8 1 2 3/8 Probability
TTH
TTH Probability
Histogram
Histogramforforxx
TTT
1/8 0 3 1/8
TTT
 Example
Toss two dice and x p(x)
define 2 1/36
3 2/36
x = sum of two 4 3/36
dice. 5 4/36
6 5/36
7 6/36
8 5/36
9 4/36
10 3/36
11 2/36
12 1/36
 98
Probability Distributions

Probability distributions can be used to describe

the population.
Shape: Symmetric, skewed, mound-shaped
Outliers: unusual or unlikely measurements
Center and spread: mean and standard
deviation. A population mean is called m and a
population standard deviation is called s.
 Key Concepts 99

I. Experiments and the Sample Space

1. Experiments, events, mutually exclusive events,
simple events
2. The sample space
II. Probabilities
1. Relative frequency definition of probability
2. Properties of probabilities
1. Each probability lies between 0 and 1.
2. Sum of all simple-event probabilities equals 1.
3. P(A), the sum of the probabilities for all simple events in A
 Key Concepts 10
0

III. Counting Rules

1. mn Rule; extended mn Rule Prn 
n!
(n  r )!
2. Permutations:
n n!
3. Combinations: C r 
r!(n  r )!
IV. Event Relations
1. Unions and intersections
2. Events
a. Disjoint or mutually exclusive: P(A Ç B) = 0
b. Complementary: P(A) = 1 - P(AC )
 Key Concepts 10
1

P( A  B)
3. Conditional probability: P( A | B) 
P( B)
4. Independent and dependent events
5. Additive Rule of Probability:
P( A  B) P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)

6. Multiplicative Rule of Probability:

P( A  B ) P ( A) P( B | A)
7. Law of Total Probability
8. Bayes’ Rule
 Key Concepts 10
2

V. Discrete Random Variables and Probability

Distributions
1. Random variables, discrete and continuous
2. Properties of probability
0  p ( xdistributions
) 1 and  p ( x) 1

3. Mean or expected value of a discrete random

variable:
Variance :  2  ( x   ) 2 p ( x)
  xp ( x) of a discrete random
Mean : deviation
4. Variance and standard
Standard deviation :   
2