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Probability

The document discusses basic probability concepts and rules, including the addition and multiplication rules, conditional probability, and the complementary rule. It also explains probability distributions, differentiating between discrete and continuous types. Examples are provided to illustrate how these concepts are applied in various scenarios.

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10 views20 pages

Probability

The document discusses basic probability concepts and rules, including the addition and multiplication rules, conditional probability, and the complementary rule. It also explains probability distributions, differentiating between discrete and continuous types. Examples are provided to illustrate how these concepts are applied in various scenarios.

Uploaded by

felipa cambic
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability and the

Foundations of
Inferential Statistics
BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS

Probability
a branch of mathematics
that deals with the
occurrence of a random
event.
-how likely something is to
happen
-possibility/chance
PROBABILITY RULES
 ) Addition Rule - the probability that one or
both events occur.
Whenever an event is the union of
two other events, say A and B, then
P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)
−P(A∩B)P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
 Ben is fond of reading books.
 He often goes to the library.
The probability that he checks out:
(a) a work of fiction is 0.40,
(b) a work of non-fiction is 0.30,
(c) both fiction and non-fiction is 0.20
What is the probability that he checks out
both fiction as well as non fiction?
Let F be the event for Ben checking out fiction.
Let N be the event for Ben checking out non-fiction.
Then, based on the rule of addition:
P(F∪N)=P(F)+P(N)−P(F∩N)
P(F∪N)=0.40+0.30−0.20=0.50

Probability that he checks out both


is 0.5
 2. Multiplication Rule - the probability
that both events occur together.Whenever
an event is the intersection of two other
events, that is, events A and B need to
occur simultaneously.
Then P(A and B)=P(A)⋅P(B).
P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B∣A)
A jar contains 4 green marbles and
6 yellow marbles.
Two marbles have been drawn from the jar.
The second marble has been drawn without
replacement.
What is the probability that both the drawn
marbles will be yellow?
 Solution
Let A = the event that the first marble is yellow; and let B = the
event that the second marble is yellow. We know the following:
In the beginning, there are 10 marbles in the box, 6 of which are
yellow. Therefore, P(A) = 6/10
After the first selection, there are 9 marbles in the jar, 5 of which
are yellow. Therefore, P(B|A) = 5/9
 Therefore, based on the rule of multiplication:
 P(A∩B)=P(A).P(B∣A)
P(A∩B)=(6/10)∗(5/9)=30/90=1/3=0.33
Probability that both marbles are yellow = 0.33
 3.) Conditional Probability - the probability of
an event happening given that another event
has already happened
 When event A is already known to have
occurred and probability of event B is desired,
 then P(B, given A)=P(A and B)P(A, given B).
It can be vica versa in case of event B.
P(B∣A)=P(A∩B)P(A)
 In a group of 100 computer buyers, 40
bought CPU, 30 purchased monitor,
and 20 purchased CPU and monitors.
If a computer buyer chose at random
and bought a CPU, what is the
probability they also bought a
Monitor?
Solution: As per the first event, 40 out of 100 bought CPU,
So, P(A) = 40% or 0.4
Now, according to the question, 20 buyers purchased both CPU and
monitors. So, this is the intersection of the happening of two events.
Hence,
P(A∩B) = 20% or 0.2
By the formula of conditional probability we know;
P(B|A) = P(A∩B)/P(B)
P(B|A) = 0.2/0.4 = 2/4 = ½ = 0.5
The probability that a buyer bought a monitor, given that they
purchased a CPU, is 50%.

4.)Complementary Rule
Whenever an event is the complement of
another event, specifically, if A is an event, then
P(not A)=1−P(A) or P(A') = 1 - P(A').
P(A)+P(A′)=1
Earlier, you were given a problem about Freddy's school newspaper club.
If his soccer practice occurs on Tuesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays, and
Sundays, what is the probability that the newspaper club meetings will not
fall on a soccer practice day?
First, substitute the value for the known probability into the formula for
complementary events.

We know that Freddy has soccer practice on 5 out of 7 days:


P(non-soccer practice days)=1−P(soccer practice days)=1−5/7
 Next, subtract the known probability from 1:
 P(non-soccer practice days)=1−P(soccer practice days)=1−5/7=2/7

 The answer is the probability that the newspaper club will decide to meet
on a day when soccer practice is not taking place is 2/7, or 29%.
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

 A probability distribution is a mathematical


function that describes the probability of different
possible values of a variable.
- idealized frequency distribution.
- It’s the number of times each possible
value of a variable occurs in the dataset.
Types of Probability Distribution

1.Discrete Probability Distributions

2. Continuous Probability
Distributions
 Discrete probability distribution is a type of
probability distribution that shows all
possible values of a discrete random variable
along with the associated probabilities. In
other words, a discrete probability
distribution gives the likelihood of
occurrence of each possible value of a
discrete random variable.
 Discrete distributions thus represent
data with a countable number of
outcomes, meaning that the potential
outcomes can be put into a list and
then graphed.
 A probability distribution in which the
random variable X can take on any value (is
continuous). Because there are infinite
values that X could assume, the probability
of X taking on any one specific value is
zero.
 EX. the weight of students in a
class or even the height of
students in a class.

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