Chapter 4:

Commonly Used Distributions

1
 Section 4.1:
The Bernoulli Distribution
We use the Bernoulli distribution when we have an
experiment which can result in one of two outcomes.
One outcome is labeled “success,” and the other
outcome is labeled “failure.”

The probability of a success is denoted by p. The

probability of a failure is then 1 – p.

Such a trial is called a Bernoulli trial with success

probability p.

2
 Examples 1 and 2
1. The simplest Bernoulli trial is the toss of a coin.
The two outcomes are heads and tails. If we define
heads to be the success outcome, then p is the
probability that the coin comes up heads. For a fair
coin, p = 1/2.
2. Another Bernoulli trial is a selection of a
component from a population of components, some
of which are defective. If we define “success” to be
a defective component, then p is the proportion of
defective components in the population.
3
 X ~ Bernoulli(p)
For any Bernoulli trial, we define a random variable X as
follows:

If the experiment results in a success, then X = 1.

Otherwise, X = 0. It follows that X is a discrete random
variable, with probability mass function p(x) defined by
p(0) = P(X = 0) = 1 – p
p(1) = P(X = 1) = p
p(x) = 0 for any value of x other than 0 or 1

4
 Mean and Variance
If X ~ Bernoulli(p), then

 X = 0(1- p) + 1(p) = p

 .
 (0  p) (1  p)  (1  p) ( p)  p(1  p)
2
X
2 2

5
 Example 3

Ten percent of components manufactured by a certain

process are defective. A component is chosen at
random. Let X = 1 if the component is defective, and
X = 0 otherwise.

1. What is the distribution of X?

2. Find the mean and variance of X?

6
 Section 4.2:
The Binomial Distribution
If a total of n Bernoulli trials are conducted, and

 The trials are independent.

 Each trial has the same success probability p.
 X is the number of successes in the n trials.

then X has the binomial distribution with parameters n

and p, denoted X ~ Bin(n,p).

7
 Example 4

A fair coin is tossed 10 times. Let X be the number of

heads that appear. What is the distribution of X?

8
 Another Use of the Binomial
Assume that a finite population contains items of two
types, successes and failures, and that a simple random
sample is drawn from the population. Then if the
sample size is no more than 5% of the population, the
binomial distribution may be used to model the number
of successes.

9
 Example 5

A lot contains several thousand components, 10% of

which are defective. Seven components are sampled
from the lot. Let X represent the number of defective
components in the sample. What is the distribution of
X?

10
 Binomial R.V.:
pmf, mean, and variance
 If X ~ Bin(n, p), the probability mass function of X
is
 n!
 p x
(1  p ) n x
, x 0,1,..., n
p ( x) P ( X x)  x!(n  x)!
0, otherwise


 Mean: X = np

 Variance:  X2 np (1  p )

11
 Example 6

A large industrial firm allows a discount on any invoice

that is paid within 30 days. Of all invoices, 10% receive
the discount. In a company audit, 12 invoices are
sampled at random. What is the probability that fewer
than 4 of the 12 sampled invoices receive the discount?

12
 More on the Binomial
• Assume n independent Bernoulli trials are conducted.
• Each trial has probability of success p.
• Let Y1, …, Yn be defined as follows: Yi = 1 if the ith
trial results in success, and Yi = 0 otherwise. (Each of
the Yi has the Bernoulli(p) distribution.)
• Now, let X represent the number of successes among
the n trials. So, X = Y1 + …+ Yn .

This shows that a binomial random variable can be

expressed as a sum of Bernoulli random variables.
13
 Estimate of p
If X ~ Bin(n, p), then the sample proportion pˆ  Xis /used
n
to estimate the success probability p.

Note:
 Bias is the difference
 pˆ  p.
 is unbiased.
p̂
The uncertainty in is
p̂
p (1  p )
 pˆ  .
n
In practice, when computing , we substitute for p,
since p is unknown. p̂
14
 Example 7
In a sample of 100 newly manufactured automobile
tires, 7 are found to have minor flaws on the tread. If
four newly manufactured tires are selected at random
and installed on a car, estimate the probability that none
of the four tires have a flaw, and find the uncertainty in
this estimate.

15
 Section 4.3:
The Poisson Distribution
 One way to think of the Poisson distribution is as
an approximation to the binomial distribution when n
is large and p is small.
 It is the case when n is large and p is small the mass
function depends almost entirely on the mean np, and
very little on the specific values of n and p.
 We can therefore approximate the binomial mass
function with a quantity λ = np; this λ is the
parameter in the Poisson distribution.

16
 Poisson R.V.:
pmf, mean, and variance
If X ~ Poisson(λ), the probability mass function of X is
 e   x
 , for x = 0, 1, 2, ...
p ( x) P ( X x)  x!
0, otherwise

 Mean: X = λ

 Variance:  2 
X

Note: X must be a discrete random variable and λ must be

a positive constant.
17
 Example 8
Particles are suspended in a liquid medium at a
concentration of 6 particles per mL. A large volume of
the suspension is thoroughly agitated, and then 3 mL are
withdrawn. What is the probability that exactly 15
particles are withdrawn?

18
Poisson Distribution to Estimate Rate

Let λ denote the mean number of events that occur in

one unit of time or space. Let X denote the number of
events that are observed to occur in t units of time or
space.

If X ~ Poisson(λ), we estimate λ with ˆ  X .

t

19
 Notes on Estimating a Rate
 ̂ is unbiased.
The uncertainty in ̂ is  ˆ   .
t

In practice, we substitute ̂ for λ, since λ is unknown.

20
 Example 9
A suspension contains particles at an unknown
concentration of λ per mL. The suspension is
thoroughly agitated, and then 4 mL are withdrawn and
17 particles are counted. Estimate λ and find the
uncertainty in the estimate.

21
 Section 4.4:
Some Other Discrete Distributions
• Consider a finite population containing two types
of items, which may be called successes and
failures.
• A simple random sample is drawn from the
population.
• Each item sampled constitutes a Bernoulli trial.
• As each item is selected, the probability of
successes in the remaining population decreases
or increases, depending on whether the sampled
item was a success or a failure.
22
 Hypergeometric
• For this reason the trials are not independent,
so the number of successes in the sample does
not follow a binomial distribution.
• The distribution that properly describes the
number of successes is the hypergeometric
distribution.

23
 Hypergeometric pmf
Assume a finite population contains N items, of which R are
classified as successes and N – R are classified as failures.
Assume that n items are sampled from this population, and let X
represent the number of successes in the sample. Then X has a
hypergeometric distribution with parameters N, R, and n, which
can be denoted X ~ H(N, R, n). The probability mass function of
X is
 R   N  R 
   
x
    n  x  , if max(0, R  n  N ) x min( n, R)
p ( x) P ( X x)  N
 n 
  
0, otherwise
24
 Mean and Variance
If X ~ H(N, R, n), then

nR
Mean of X:  X 
N

 R  R  N  n
Variance of X:  n    1   
2
X 
 N  N  N  1

25
 Example 10
Of 50 buildings in an industrial park, 12 have electrical
code violations. If 10 buildings are selected at random
for inspection, what is the probability that exactly 3 of
the 10 have code violations? What is the mean and
variance of X?

26
 Geometric Distribution
• Assume that a sequence of independent Bernoulli
trials is conducted, each with the same probability of
success, p.
• Let X represent the number of trials up to and
including the first success.
• Then X is a discrete random variable, which is said to
have the geometric distribution with parameter p.
• We write X ~ Geom(p).

27
 Geometric R.V.:
pmf, mean, and variance
If X ~ Geom(p), then

 p (1  p ) x  1 , x 1,2,...
 The pmf of X is p ( x) P ( X x) 
0, otherwise

1
The mean of X is X  .
p

1 p
The variance of X is   2 .
2
X
p

28
 Example 11
A test of weld strength involves loading welded joints
until a fracture occurs. For a certain type of weld, 80%
of the fractures occur in the weld itself, while the other
20% occur in the beam. A number of welds are tested.
Let X be the number of tests up to and including the first
test that results in a beam fracture.

1. What is the distribution of X?

2. What is the mean and variance of X?
3. What is the P(X = 3)?

29
 Negative Binomial Distribution
The negative binomial distribution is an extension of the
geometric distribution. Let r be a positive integer.
Assume that independent Bernoulli trials, each with
success probability p, are conducted, and let X denote
the number of trials up to and including the rth success.
Then X has the negative binomial distribution with
parameters r and p. We write X ~ NB(r,p).

Note: If X ~ NB(r,p), then X = Y1 + …+ Yn where Y1,

…,Yn are independent random variables, each with
Geom(p) distribution.
30
 Negative Binomial R.V.:
pmf, mean, and variance
If X ~ NB(r,p), then
 The pmf of X is
 x  1 r
  p (1  p ) x r
, x r , r  1,...
p ( x) P ( X x)  r  1 
0, otherwise

r
The mean of X is X  .
p

The variance of X is  X2  r (1  2 p) .
p

31
 Example 11 cont.
Find the mean and variance of X, where X represents the
number of tests up to and including the third beam
fracture.

32
 Multinomial Trials
A Bernoulli trial is a process that results in one of two
possible outcomes. A generalization of the Bernoulli
trial is the multinomial trial, which is a process that
can result in any of k outcomes, where k ≥ 2.

We denote the probabilities of the k outcomes by p1,

…,pk.

33
 Multinomial Distribution
• Now assume that n independent multinomial trials are
conducted each with k possible outcomes and with the
same probabilities p1,…,pk.
• Number the outcomes 1, 2, …, k. For each outcome i,
let Xi denote the number of trials that result in that
outcome.
• Then X1,…,Xk are discrete random variables.
• The collection X1,…,Xk said to have the multinomial
distribution with parameters n, p1,…,pk. We write X1,
…,Xk ~ MN(n, p1,…,pk).
34
 Multinomial R.V.
If X1,…,Xk ~ MN(n, p1,…,pk), then the pmf of X1,…,Xk is

 n! x1 x2 xk
p
 x ! x !L x ! 1 2 p L p k , xi 0,1, 2,..., k
 1 2 k

p ( x )  P ( X  x ) 

and  xi n

0, otherwise


Note that if X1,…,Xk ~ MN(n, p1,…,pk), then for each i,

Xi ~ Bin(n, pi).
35
 Example 12
The items produced on an assembly line are inspected,
and each is classified as either conforming (acceptable),
downgraded, or rejected. Overall, 70% of the items are
conforming, 20% are downgraded, and 10% are rejected.
Assume that four items are chosen independently and at
random. Let X1, X2, X3 denote the numbers among the 4
that are conforming, downgraded, and rejected,
respectively.
1.What is the distribution of X1, X2, X3?
2.What is the probability that 3 are conforming and 1 is
rejected in a given sample?
36
 Section 4.5:
The Normal Distribution
The normal distribution (also called the Gaussian
distribution) is by far the most commonly used
distribution in statistics. This distribution provides a
good model for many, although not all, continuous
populations.

The normal distribution is continuous rather than

discrete. The mean of a normal population may have
any value, and the variance may have any positive
value.

37
 Normal R.V.:
pdf, mean, and variance
The probability density function of a normal population
with mean  and variance 2 is given by
1 2 2
f ( x)  e  ( x   ) / 2 ,    x  
 2
If X ~ N(, 2), then the mean and variance of X are
given by

 X 
 X2  2
38
 68-95-99.7% Rule

This figure represents a plot of the normal probability density

function with mean  and standard deviation . Note that the
curve is symmetric about , so that  is the median as well as the
mean. It is also the case for the normal population.
About 68% of the population is in the interval   .
About 95% of the population is in the interval   2.
About 99.7% of the population is in the interval   3.
39
 Standard Units
•The proportion of a normal population that is within a
given number of standard deviations of the mean is the
same for any normal population.
•For this reason, when dealing with normal populations,
we often convert from the units in which the population
items were originally measured to standard units.
•Standard units tell how many standard deviations an
observation is from the population mean.

40
 Standard Normal Distribution
In general, we convert to standard units by subtracting
the mean and dividing by the standard deviation. Thus,
if x is an item sampled from a normal population with
mean  and variance 2, the standard unit equivalent of
x is the number z, where
z = (x - )/.
The number z is sometimes called the “z-score” of x.
The z-score is an item sampled from a normal
population with mean 0 and standard deviation of 1.
This normal distribution is called the standard normal
distribution.
41
 Example 13
Aluminum sheets used to make beverage cans have
thicknesses that are normally distributed with mean 10
and standard deviation 1.3. A particular sheet is 10.8
thousandths of an inch thick. Find the z-score.

42
 Example 13 cont.
The thickness of a certain sheet has a z-score of -1.7.
Find the thickness of the sheet in the original units of
thousandths of inches.

43
 Finding Areas Under the Normal Curve
The proportion of a normal population that lies within a given
interval is equal to the area under the normal probability density
above that interval. This would suggest integrating the normal
pdf, but this integral does not have a closed form solution.

So, the areas under the curve are approximated numerically and
are available in Table A.2. This table provides area under the
curve for the standard normal density. We can convert any
normal into a standard normal so that we can compute areas
under the curve.

The table gives the area in the left-hand tail of the curve. Other
areas can be calculated by subtraction or by using the fact that the
total area under the curve is 1.
44
 Example 14
Find the area under normal curve to the left of z = 0.47.

Find the area under the curve to the right of z = 1.38.

45
 Example 15
Find the area under the normal curve between z = 0.71
and z = 1.28.

What z-score corresponds to the 75th percentile of a

normal curve?

46
 Estimating the Parameters
If X1,…,Xn are a random sample from a N(,2)
distribution,  is estimated with the sample mean and 2
is estimated with the sample standard deviation.

As with any sample mean, the uncertainty in

X is  / n which we replace with s / n , if  is
unknown. The mean is an unbiased estimator of .

47
 Linear Functions of Normal Random
Variables
Let X ~ N(, 2) and let a ≠ 0 and b be constants.
Then aX + b ~ N(a + b, a22).

Let X1, X2, …, Xn be independent and normally distributed with

2 2 2
σ
means 1, 2,…, n and variances 1 2 , σ , K , σ n . Let c1, c2,…, cn
be constants, and c1 X1 + c2 X2 +…+ cnXn be a linear combination.
Then

c1 X1 + c2 X2 +…+ cnXn
c12σ12  c22σ 22  L  cn2σ n2
~ N(c11 + c2 2 +…+ cnn, , )

48
 Example 16
A chemist measures the temperature of a solution in oC.
The measurement is denoted C, and is normally
distributed with mean 40oC and standard deviation 1oC.
The measurement is converted to oF by the equation F =
1.8C + 32. What is the distribution of F?

49
 Distributions of Functions of Normals
Let X1, X2, …, Xn be independent and normally distributed with
mean  and variance 2. Then
 σ2 
X ~ N  μ,  .
 n 

2
σ
Let X and Y be independent, with X ~ N(X, X ) and
2
Y ~ N(Y, σ Y ). Then
X  Y ~ N ( μ X  μY , σ X2  σY2 )
2 2
X  Y ~ N ( μ X  μY , σ  σ )
X Y
50
 Section 4.6:
The Lognormal Distribution
For data that contain outliers, the normal distribution is
generally not appropriate. The lognormal distribution,
which is related to the normal distribution, is often a
good choice for these data sets.

If X ~ N(,2), then the random variable Y = eX has the

lognormal distribution with parameters  and 2.

If Y has the lognormal distribution with parameters 

and 2, then the random variable X = lnY has the
N(,2) distribution.
51
 Lognormal pdf, mean, and variance
The pdf of a lognormal random variable with
parameters  and 2 is

 1  1 2
 exp   (ln x   )  , x  0
f ( x)  x 2  2
2

0, otherwise


52
 Section 4.7:
The Exponential Distribution
The exponential distribution is a continuous
distribution that is sometimes used to model the time
that elapses before an event occurs. Such a time is often
called a waiting time.
The probability density of the exponential distribution
involves a parameter, which is a positive constant λ
whose value determines the density function’s location
and shape.
We write X ~ Exp(λ).

53
 Exponential R.V.:
pdf, cdf, mean and variance
The pdf of an exponential r.v. is
 e   x , x  0
f ( x)  .
0, otherwise
The cdf of an exponential r.v. is
0, x 0
F ( x)   x
.
1  e , x  0
The mean of an exponential r.v. is
 X 1/ .

The variance of an exponential r.v. is

 1/  .
2
X
2
54
 Example 17
A radioactive mass emits particles according to a
Poisson process at a mean rate if 15 particles per
minute. At some point, a clock is started.

1. What is the probability that more than 5 seconds will

elapse before the next emission?
2. What is the mean waiting time until the next particle
is emitted?

55
 Lack of Memory Property
The exponential distribution has a property known as the lack of
memory property: If T ~ Exp(λ), and t and s are positive
numbers, then P(T > t + s | T > s) = P(T > t).

If X1,…,Xn are a random sample from Exp(λ), then the parameter λ

is estimated with ˆ 1/ XThis
. estimator is biased. This bias is
approximately equal to λ/n. The uncertainty in ̂ is estimated
with
 ˆ  1 .
X n
This uncertainty estimate is reasonably good when the sample
size is more than 20.
56
 Example 18
The number of hits on a website follows a Poisson
process with a rate of 3 per minute.

1. What is the probability that more than a minute goes

by without a hit?

2. If 2 minutes have gone by without a hit, what is the

probability that a hit will occur in the next minute?

57
 Section 4.8:
The Uniform, Gamma and Weibull
Distributions
The uniform distribution has two parameters, a and b,
with a < b. If X is a random variable with the
continuous uniform distribution then it is uniformly
distributed on the interval (a, b). We write X ~ U(a,b).
The pdf is
 1
 , a  x b
f ( x)  b  a
0, otherwise

58
 Mean and Variance
If X ~ U(a, b).

Then the mean is

a b
μX 
2
and the variance is
2
2 (b  a )
σ 
X .
12
59
 Example 19
When a motorist stops at a red light at a certain
intersection, the waiting time for the light to turn green,
in seconds, is uniformly distributed on the interval
(0, 30). Find the probability that the waiting time is
between 10 and 15 seconds.

60
 The Gamma Distribution
First, let’s consider the gamma function:
For r > 0, the gamma function is defined by
 r 1  t
(r ) 0 t e dt .

The gamma function has the following properties:

1. If r is any integer, then Γ(r) = (r-1)!.
2. For any r, Γ(r+1) = r Γ(r).
3. Γ(1/2) =  .

61
 Gamma R.V.
If X1,…,Xr are independent random variables, each distributed as Exp(λ), then
the sum X1+…+Xr is distributed as a gamma random variable with parameters
r and λ, denoted as Γ(r, λ ).

The pdf of the gamma distribution with parameters r > 0

and λ > 0 is 
  x r  1e  x
 ,x 0
f ( x)  (r ) .
0, x 0


The mean and variance are given by

 X r /  and  X2 r /  2, respectively.

62
 Example 20
Assume that arrival times at a drive-through window
follow a Poisson process with mean λ = 0.2 arrivals per
minute. Let T be the waiting time until the third arrival.

Find the mean and variance of T.

Find P(T  20).

63
 The Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a continuous random
variable that is used in a variety of situations. A
common application of the Weibull distribution is to
model the lifetimes of components. The Weibull
probability density function has two parameters, both
positive constants, that determine the location and
shape. We denote these parameters  and .

If  = 1, the Weibull distribution is the same as the

exponential distribution with parameter λ = .

64
 Weibull R.V.
The pdf of the Weibull distribution is
  1  (  x )
 x e

,x 0
f ( x)  .
0, x 0
The mean of the Weibull is
1  1
X  1  .
  
The variance of the Weibull is

1   2   1   
2

 X  2   1       1     .
2

          
65
 Section 4.9: Some Principles of Point
Estimation
• We collect data for the purpose of estimating some
numerical characteristic of the population from which
they come.
• A quantity calculated from the data is called a
statistic, and a statistic that is used to estimate an
unknown constant, or parameter, is called a point
estimator. Once the data has been collected, we call it
a point estimate.

66
 Questions of Interest
• Given a point estimator, how do we determine how
good it is?
• What methods can be used to for construct good point
estimators?

Notation:  is used to denote an unknown parameter,

and θ̂ to denote an estimator of .

67
 Measuring the Goodness of an Estimator

• The accuracy of an estimator is measured by its bias,

and the precision is measured by its standard
deviation, or uncertainty.
• To measure the overall goodness of an estimator, we
used the mean squared error (MSE) which combines
both bias and uncertainty.

68
 Mean Squared Error
Let  be a parameter, and θ̂ an estimator of . The
mean squared error (MSE) of θ̂ is

2 2
MSEθˆ ( μθˆ  θ )  σ θˆ .

An equivalent expression for the MSE is

MSEθˆ  μ(θˆ  θ )2.

69
 Example 21
Let X ~ Bin(n, p) where p is unknown. Find the MSE of
the estimator pˆ  X / n .

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 Method of Maximum Likelihood
• The idea is to estimate a parameter with the value that
makes the observed data most likely.
• When a probability mass function or probability
density function is considered to be a function of the
parameters, it is called a likelihood function.
• The maximum likelihood estimate is the value of the
parameters that when substituted in for the parameters
maximizes the likelihood function.

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 Desirable Properties
Maximum likelihood is the most commonly used
method of estimation. The main reason for this is that
in most cases that arise in practice, MLEs have two very
desirable properties,
1. In most cases, as the sample size n increases, the bias
of the MLE converges to 0.
2. In most cases, as the sample size n increases, the
variance of the MLE converges to a theoretical
minimum.
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 Section 4.10: Probability Plots
Scientists and engineers often work with data that can
be thought of as a random sample from some
population. In many cases, it is important to determine
the probability distribution that approximately describes
the population.
More often than not, the only way to determine an
appropriate distribution is to examine the sample to find
a sample distribution that fits.

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 Finding a Distribution
Probability plots are a good way to determine an appropriate distribution.
Here is the idea: Suppose we have a random sample X1,…,Xn. We first
arrange the data in ascending order. Then assign evenly spaced values
between 0 and 1 to each Xi. There are several acceptable ways to this; the
simplest is to assign the value (i – 0.5)/n to Xi.

The distribution that we are comparing the X’s to should have a mean and
variance that match the sample mean and variance. We want to plot
(Xi, F(Xi)), if this plot resembles the cdf of the distribution that we are
interested in, then we conclude that that is the distribution the data came from.

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 Software
Many software packages take the (i – 0.5)/n assigned to
each Xi, and calculate the quantile (Qi) corresponding to
that number from the distribution of interest. Then it
plots each (Xi, Qi). If this plot is a reasonably straight
line then you may conclude that the sample came from
the distribution that we used to find quantiles.

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 Normal Probability Plots

The sample plotted on the left comes from a population

that is not close to normal.
The sample plotted on the right comes from a
population that is close to normal.
 Section 4.11: The Central Limit Thereom
The Central Limit Theorem
Let X1,…,Xn be a random sample from a population with mean  and variance
2.
X1  L  X n
Let X  be the sample mean.
n

Let Sn = X1+…+Xn be the sum of the sample observations. Then if n is

sufficiently large,
 2  S ~ N ( n , n 2
) approximately.
X ~ N   ,  and n
 n 

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 Rule of Thumb
For most populations, if the sample size is greater than 30, the
Central Limit Theorem approximation is good.

Normal approximation to the Binomial:

If X ~ Bin(n,p) and if np > 10, and n(1-p) >10, then
X ~ N(np, np(1-p)) approximately and
 p (1  p )  approximately.
pˆ ~ N  p, 
 n 
Normal Approximation to the Poisson:
If X ~ Poisson(λ), where λ > 10, then X ~ N(λ, λ2).

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 Continuity Correction
• The binomial distribution is discrete, while the normal
distribution is continuous.
• The continuity correction is an adjustment, made when
approximating a discrete distribution with a
continuous one, that can improve the accuracy of the
approximation.
• If you want to include the endpoints in your
probability calculation, then extend each endpoint by
0.5. Then proceed with the calculation.
• If you want exclude the endpoints in your probability
calculation, then include 0.5 less from each endpoint
in the calculation.

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 Example 22
The manufacturer of a certain part requires two different
machine operations. The time on machine 1 has mean
0.4 hours and standard deviation 0.1 hours. The time on
machine 2 has mean 0.45 hours and standard deviation
0.15 hours. The times needed on the machines are
independent. Suppose that 65 parts are manufactured.
What is the distribution of the total time on machine 1?
On machine 2? What is the probability that the total
time used by both machines together is between 50 and
55 hours?
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 Example 23
If a fair coin is tossed 100 times, use the normal curve
to approximate the probability that the number of heads
is between 45 and 55 inclusive.

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 Section 4.12: Simulation
Simulation refers to the process of generating random
numbers and treating them as if they were data
generated by an actual scientific distribution. The data
so generated are called simulated or synthetic data.

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 Example 24
An engineer has to choose between two types of cooling fans to
install in a computer. The lifetimes, in months, of fans of type A
are exponentially distributed with mean 50 months, and the
lifetime of fans of type B are exponentially distributed with mean
30 months. Since type A fans are more expensive, the engineer
decides that she will choose type A fans if the probability that a
type A fan will last more than twice as long as a type B fan is
greater than 0.5. Estimate this probability.

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 Simulation
• We perform a simulation experiment, using samples of size
1000.
• Generate a random sample A1* , A2* ,..., A1000
*
from an exponential
distribution with mean 50 (λ = 0.02).
• Generate a random sample B1* , B2* ,..., B1000
*
from an exponential
distribution with mean 30 (λ = 0.033).
* *
• Count the number of times that Ai  2 Bi .
• Divide the number of times that Ai*  2 Bi* occurred by the total
number of trials. This is the estimate of the probability that
type A fans last twice as long as type B fans.

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 Summary
• We considered various discrete distributions: Bernoulli,
Binomial, Poisson, Hypergeometric, Geometric, Negative
Binomial, and Multinomial.
• Then we looked at some continuous distributions: Normal,
Exponential, Uniform, Gamma, and Weibull.
• We learned about the Central Limit Theorem.
• We discussed Normal approximations to the Binomial and
Poisson distributions.
• Finally, we discussed simulation studies.

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