INTRODUCTION TO

HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Prepared by: Danah A. Mama, RPm
HYPOTHESIS
• A claim or premise that we want to test
• To test hypothesis, we make use of
INFERENTIAL STATISTICS—where we
study a sample and use the result to
generalize an entire population
 NULL HYPOTHESIS ()
• The hypothesis that an apparent effect is due to chance;
read as “H-naught”; contains equality
• Currently accepted (or established) value for a parameter
• If we’re looking for the difference:

• If we’re looking for the correlation:

Where is the population correlation

 NULL HYPOTHESIS
• Null Hypothesis is not always a value of 0.
• For example, if we are working with mothers in the US
whose children are at risk of low birth weight, we can
use 7.47 pounds, the average birth weight in the US,
as our null hypothesis.
H0: μ = 7.47
• The number on the right side is our null hypothesis
value that is informed by our research question.
 NULL HYPOTHESIS
• Notice that we are testing the value for , not the
sample statistic So why ? Why not ?

1. Once we collect data, we already know the

value of the because it is observed.
2. We are interested in understanding the
population, not just our sample.
 NULL HYPOTHESIS
• Possible outcomes when conducting hypothesis testing:
• REJECT THE NULL HYPOTHESIS: If we reject the null
hypothesis, we support the alternative hypothesis.
• FAIL TO REJECT THE NULL HYPOTHESIS: If we fail to reject the
null hypothesis, there is not enough evidence to support the
alternative hypothesis.
• Note: We do not say that the alternative hypothesis is false; we
simply imply that there is no enough evidence to support it.

• Why? To discredit it, and thus to reject it.

 NULL HYPOTHESIS
So, why are we really obsessed with rejecting the null
hypothesis?!
Because the idea of is “nothing is going on.”
• No effect, No relation between variables, or No
difference in sample mean from what we expected
about the population mean.
• Examples:
• To treat depression, there must be significant difference in
average symptoms between treatment and control groups.
• To predict job performance, there should be significant
relationship between conscientiousness and evaluation score.
 ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS: or
• Reverse of the null hypothesis; also called the
“research hypothesis”
• Involves the claim to be tested
• There are 3 options, depending on where we
expect the difference to lie.
• It is the mathematical way of stating our
research questions.
• Determine the tail of the test
• Never contain equality
ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS: or
DIRECTIONAL or ONE-TAILED HYPOTHESIS
• We expect that the obtained sample mean is
greater than or less than the null hypothesis
value

• Only used if we have a good reason; based on

prior observation or research, to suspect a
particular direction.
ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS: or

DIRECTIONAL or ONE-TAILED HYPOTHESIS

ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS: or
NON-DIRECTIONAL or TWO-TAILED HYPOTHESIS
• Used if we do not know the direction, e.g.
when entering new area of research
 Null vs. Alternative Hypothesis
Example: It is believed that a candy machine makes chocolate bars that are on
average 5g. A worker claims that the machine after maintenance no longer
makes 5g bars.

H0: = 5g
Ha: 5g

H0 and Ha are mathematical opposites.

We always assume that the null hypothesis is always true unless evidence
says otherwise.

Possible outcomes of this test:

- Reject H0 (false)
- Fail to Reject H0 (not false; not “not true”)
 SO WHEN AND HOW DO WE REJECT THE NULL
HYPOTHESIS?

• We set different criteria based on the

directionality of the alternative hypothesis.

SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL
CRITICAL VALUES
P-VALUES
 CRITICAL VALUES, P-VALUES, & SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL
• When we say that we Reject , this implies that the null hypothesis is false
if the probability value is less than 0.05 (or any set )

• The probability value that is less than 0.05 is called the ALPHA LEVEL or
SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL “”

• When alpha is not specified, always assume that = 0.05

• Level of Confidence = 0.95 or 95%

• Significance level is the threshold we set before collecting data to decide

whether to reject or not to reject the null hypothesis.

• It is set beforehand to avoid biasing ourselves when we view the results,

i.e. adjusting the criteria.
 CRITICAL VALUES, P-VALUES, & SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL
• Let’s recall: probability is the likelihood of an
event, given some situation or set of
conditions.
• In Hypothesis Testing:
• Situation/condition  assumption that is true
(meaning, there is no effect)
• To reject this assumption, we need results that
would be very unlikely if the was true.
 CRITICAL VALUES, P-VALUES, & SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL
• Recall: Z values fall in tails represent
these unlikely values (or extreme
values)
• Significance level corresponds to the

to 𝜶
area under the tail that is exactly equal

• Example: If we use a criterion of 𝜶 =

0.05, then 5% of the area under the
curve becomes REJECTION REGION or
CRITICAL REGION
• Any result which falls into the rejection
area is sufficient evidence to reject the
null hypothesis
 CRITICAL VALUES, P-VALUES, & SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL
• The Rejection Region is bounded by a
specific z-value, known as the CRITICAL
VALUE or Z-crit  Z*
• This is the value that corresponds to a specific
rejection region
• To calculate for the Z*, we do the same
procedure as finding the z-score
(see the z-table).
 CRITICAL VALUES, P-VALUES, & SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL
• If it is NON-DIRECTIONAL,
we divide the into half:
1. = 0.05/2 = 0.025
2. Then, we find the
corresponding z-score to
this area
3. Z* = 1.96
• So any score falling
outside 1.96 falls in the
rejection region.
CRITICAL VALUES, P-VALUES, & SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL
 CRITICAL VALUES, P-VALUES, & SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL
• When we use z-scores in this way, the obtained value of z is
known as TEST STATISTIC or (“z-obtained’)
• Test statistic is the inferential statistics used to test the null
hypothesis.

Note: Used when comparing sample mean from population mean

• To formally test our hypothesis, we compare to Z*
• If > Z*, then reject
• If < Z*, then fail to reject
 CRITICAL VALUES, P-VALUES, & SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL
Other Formula:

(When comparing two sample means)

Where:
•  mean of the first sample
•  mean of the second sample
•  number of items in the first sample
•  number of items in the second sample
•  population standard deviation
 CRITICAL VALUES, P-VALUES, & SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL
• When is rejected, the effect is “statistically
significant”
• Note:
• Significant Important
• It only means that you can have confidence that the effect is
not exactly zero (0).
• Statistical Significance Practical Significance
• It just means that the effect is real and not due to chance
alone.
 STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING
❶ STATE THE HYPOTHESIS

• Your hypotheses are the first thing you need to lay out.
Otherwise, there is nothing to test! You have to state the null
hypothesis (which is what we test) and the alternative
hypothesis (which is what we expect).
• These should be stated mathematically as they were presented
above AND in words, explaining in normal English what each
one means in terms of the research question.
 STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING
❷ FIND THE CRITICAL VALUES

Next, we formally lay out the criteria we will use to test our
hypotheses. There are two pieces of information that inform our
critical values:
• α, which determines how much of the area under the curve
composes our rejection region, and
• the directionality of the test, which determines where the
region will be.
 STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING
❸ COMPUTE THE TEST STATISTIC

Once we have our hypotheses and the standards we use to test

them, we can collect data and calculate our test statistic, in this
case z. (This step is where the vast majority of differences in
future chapters will arise: different tests used for different data
are calculated in different ways, but the way we use and
interpret them remains the same.)
 STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING
❹ MAKE THE DECISION

Finally, once we have our obtained test statistic, we can compare

it to our critical value and decide whether we should reject or
fail to reject the null hypothesis.

When we do this, we must interpret the decision in relation to

our research question, stating what we concluded, what we
based our conclusion on, and the specific statistics we obtained.

“Statistically Significant” – where do we draw the line to make a

decision?
 EFFECT SIZE
• When we reject the null
hypothesis, we are stating that the
difference we found was
statistically significant.
• It gives us an idea of how large,
important, or meaningful a
statistically significant effect is. d Interpretation
• Cohen’s d
• Effect sizes are incredibly useful 0.20 Small
and provide important information 0.50 Moderate
and clarification that overcomes
some of the weakness of 0.80 Large
hypothesis testing. Whenever you
find a significant result, you should
always calculate an effect size.
EXAMPLE:
A movie theater owner likes to keep a very close eye on how
much popcorn goes into each bag sold, so he knows that the
average bag has 8 cups of popcorn and that this varies a little bit,
about half a cup. That is, the known population mean is μ = 8.00
and the known population standard deviation is σ = 0.50. The
owner wants to make sure that the newest employee is filling
bags correctly, so over the course of a week he randomly
assesses 25 bags filled by the employee to test for a difference
(N = 25). He doesn’t want bags overfilled or under filled, so he
looks for differences in both directions.
Step 1: State the Hypothesis
• H0: There is no difference in the weight of popcorn bags from
this employee
H0: μ = 8.00

• HA: There is a difference in the weight of popcorn bags from

this employee
HA: μ ≠ 8.00

Note: In this case, we don’t know if the bags will be too full or
not full enough, so we do a two-tailed alternative hypothesis
that there is a difference.
Step 2: Find the Critical Values
• α = 0.05
• Direction: Two-tailed test

z* = ±1.96
Step 3: Calculate the Test Statistic
• Let’s say that the manager collects data and finds that the
average weight of this employee’s popcorn bags is X ̅ = 7.75
cups.
Step 4: Make the Decision
• Compare the obtained z value
to the critical value: in terms
of absolute value, -2.50 > -
1.96, so we reject the null
hypothesis

Conclusion:
Reject H0. Based on the
sample of 25 bags, we can
conclude that the average
popcorn bag from this
employee is smaller (X ̅ = 7.75
cups) than the average weight
of popcorn bags at this movie
theater, z = 2.50, p < 0.05.
Step 4: Make the Decision
Reject the null hypothesis. Based on the sample
of 25 bags, we can conclude that the average
popcorn bag from this employee is smaller (X ̅ =
7.75 cups) than the average weight of popcorn
bags at this movie theater, z = 2.50, p < 0.05.

• Decision
• Average sample size we calculated
• Conclusion
• Z-statistic
• P-value (unknown exact value, but we can assume that it must be
less than alpha, since we rejected the null)
Step 5: Effect Size

Therefore, we can say that there was a moderate effect.

d Interpretation
0.20 Small
0.50 Moderate
0.80 Large
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS IN HYPOTHESIS
TESTING
ERRORS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING
TYPE I ERROR: (False Positive)
• occurs when a significance test incorrectly rejects a
true null hypothesis
• Is affected by the significance level: the lower the
alpha level, the lower the Type I error rate
• α is the probability of a Type I error given that the
null hypothesis is true. If the null hypothesis is false,
then it is impossible to make a Type I error.
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS IN HYPOTHESIS
TESTING
ERRORS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING
TYPE II ERROR: (False Negative)
• Failing to reject an actual false null hypothesis
• When a statistical test is not significant, it means that the
data do not provide strong evidence that the null hypothesis
is false.
• Lack of significance does not support the conclusion that the
null hypothesis is true. Therefore, a researcher should not
make the mistake of incorrectly concluding that the null
hypothesis is true when a statistical test was not significant.
Instead, the researcher should consider the test inconclusive.
MISCONCEPTIONS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

❶ The probability value is the probability that the null

hypothesis is false.

Proper Interpretation:
The probability value is the probability of a result as extreme or
more extreme given that the null hypothesis is true. It is the
probability of the data given the null hypothesis. It is not the
probability that the null hypothesis is false.
MISCONCEPTIONS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

❷ A low probability value indicates a large effect.

Proper Interpretation:
A low probability value indicates that the sample outcome (or
one more extreme) would be very unlikely if the null hypothesis
were true. A low probability value can occur with small effect
sizes, particularly if the sample size is large.
MISCONCEPTIONS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

❸ A non-significant outcome means that the null hypothesis is

probably true.

Proper Interpretation:
A non-significant outcome means that the data do not
conclusively demonstrate that the null hypothesis is false.