GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

✔Earth atmosphere energy

balance
✔Global warming
✔Greenhouse effect
✔Greenhouse gases
✔Aerosols
✔Radiative forcing
 Abrupt changes in the global climate is
termed as global climate change

Weather: refers to the changes taking place in the

atmosphere over short period of time. Study of weather is
termed as Science of Meteorology.

Climate: defines the tendency of weather over long period

of time. Study of climate is termed as Science of Climatology

Climate of any place is determined by observing the

different meteorological conditions for around 30 years. If
the trend established in 30 years shows deviation from the
original values, then the term climate change is used.
✔Approximate energy received by Earth from sun is
about 1360 Wm-2 (annual average)

✔The energy is distributed throughout the Earth by two

main systems

1. Atmospheric air circulation

2. Ocean currents

✔Energy balance of the Earth plays an important role in

maintaining the climate of the Earth.

✔Energy of the solar radiations reaching the Earth’s surface

are partly reflected and partly absorbed.

✔During this process of reflection and absorption, solar

radiations transfer their energy to Earth – Atmosphere
system, which in turn determines the global temperature
✔After being partially absorbed by the Earth’s surface, the
remaining heat is radiated back into the space.

✔When there is a balance between the incoming solar

radiation and energy radiated back to the space, Earth’s
temperature becomes constant.

✔Consistent Earth’s temperature is important for the

smooth continuation of energy transfer

The rate of energy α Temperature of the

loss object
✔If due to some reason, Earth becomes hotter than its
normal temperature, it starts loosing energy at a greater
rate, thus restoring its temperature.

✔If temperature of Earth becomes less than normal, the

rate of energy loss declines.
Energy budget of the Earth-Atmosphere
system
✔On the basis of energy transfer and loss, the global
average temperature of Earth is calculated to be -
18°C (0°F).

✔However, the average temperature of the Earth is

about 15°C (59°F), about 33°C higher than the
calculated temperature.

✔This discrepancy between the predicted and

observed temperature is due to the presence of
atmosphere around the Earth.

✔The envelope of atmosphere around the Earth

leads to a process called Greenhouse effect, which
is responsible for maintaining the temperature of the
Earth.
Greenhouse……
✔ Environmentally
controlled
chambers

✔ Trap the infra red

wavelengths of the
solar radiations

✔ Maintains higher
temperature as
compared to
surroundings
Atmospheric greenhouse effect
Greenhouse effect can be defined as

“trapping of sun’s warmth in a planet’s lower

atmosphere due to greater transparency of
atmosphere to visible radiations from sun than to IR
radiations emitted from the planet’s surface”

✔Greenhouse effect is a very natural process

✔It is in fact very important in maintaining the

temperature of the Earth

✔In the absence of greenhouse effect, the temperature

of Earth would drop to -18°C

✔Since the average temperature of the Earth is 15°C,

greenhouse effect increases its temperature by 33°C,
thus making Earth livable
Greenhouse effect and
temperature……
Mars (thin atmosphere; less greenhouse effect)

Energy calculations predict its surface temperature to be

-60°C, but the observed temperature is -50°C

Venus (thick atmosphere; high greenhouse effect)

Energy calculations predict its surface temperature to be

50°C, but the observed temperature is 500°C

Venus:
450°C

Earth: 33°C

Mars: 10°C
Why are we so
concerned
Greenhouse effect is a very natural phenomenon.

However due to increased anthropogenic activities,

the concentrations of greenhouse gases have

increased, resulting in enhanced magnitude of

greenhouse effect . This causes GLOBAL

WARMING
 What is global
warming
✔Abrupt change in the
average temperature of
the Earth’s surface during
the last century is termed
as global warming.

✔Average temperatures
around the world have
risen by 0.75°C (1.4°F)
over the last 100 years.

✔IPCC sixth assessment

report shows that the
world will probably reach
or exceed 1.5 degrees C
(2.7 degrees F) of ✔The phenomenon of global
warming within just the warming is completely human
next two decades induced
✔ In the scenarios studied by the IPCC (2022), there is a more
than 50% chance that the 1.5 degrees C target is reached
or crossed between 2021 and 2040.

✔ Under a high-emissions scenario, the world reaches the 1.5

degrees C threshold even more quickly (2030).

✔ If the world takes a high carbon emission pathway, global

warming could climb to 3.3-5.7 degrees C (5.9-10.3 degrees
F) higher than pre-industrial levels by the end of the
century.

✔ To put that in perspective, the world has not experienced

global warming of more than 2.5 degrees C (4.5 degrees F)
for more than 3 million years, a period with a very different
climate system.
What causes Global
warming…

INCREASED GREENHOUSE
EFFECT

Increase amount of
Greenhouse Gases
DRIVERS OF GLOBAL
WARMING

Greenhouse gases
Proportion of greenhouse gases emitted from
different sectors
CO2 emissions around the World (tonnes per
capita)
Carbon di oxide (CO2)
⮚CO2 accounts for the 60 % of the enhanced IR
blockage.

⮚Atmospheric CO2 has increased by about 47 %

since pre industrial times, from approximately 280
ppm in 18th century to 410 ppm (IPCC, 2022).
Keeling
curve
Methane (CH4)
⮚CH4 is produced both naturally
and anthropogenic sources, when
organic matter decays an
aerobically.

⮚CH4 concentration is 156 % more

than the pre industrial times.

⮚CH4 concentration has increased

from 700 ppb in 1750 to 1866 ppb
in 2013.
⮚One molecule of CH4 is 30 times more effective in blocking
IR as compared to CO2, but high concentration of CO2 makes
it a more potential green house gas.

⮚CH4 has a life span of approximately 12.5 years, making its

warming potential less than CO2.
Nitrous oxide
(N2O)

⮚N2O is produced via activities

like extensive use of fertilizers
and some industrial processes.
⮚N2O concentration has
⮚40% of the emitted N2O is
increased from 270 ppb
through anthropogenic sources. in 1750 to 332 ppb in
2013, registering an
⮚N2O has a persistent time of approximate increase of
121 years 23 %.
Greenhouse gas Pre-industrial Present day
concentration concentration
(1750) (2022)
Carbon dioxide 276.6 ppm 410 ppm
(CO2)
Greenhouse gases
Methane (CH4) 723 ppb 1866 ppb
concentrations (IPCC, 2022)
Nitrous oxide 272.8 ppb 332 ppb
(N2O)
 DUAL Nature OF
OZONE

Stratospheric Ozone Tropospheric Ozone

⮚More O3 in a given parcel of ⮚O3 in troposphere acts as a
air, more heat it retains powerful greenhouse gas with
⮚O3 generates heat by radiative forcing of 0.40 Wm-2 (IPCC
absorbing incoming sun’s UV 2022).

radiations and upwelling ⮚ Being a secondary pollutant, its

infrared radiations. concentration in the troposphere
⮚Depletion of stratospheric increases due to increased
O3 results in cooling. In availability of its precursors and
recent decades, stratosphere favorable meteorological
has cooled by 1-6°C. conditions.
 F- gases (CFCs, HCFCs, PFCs,
NF3)
⮚ Purely anthropogenic in origin
⮚Form only 2 % of the entire greenhouse gases
⮚Their concentration has increased by 60 % since 1990
⮚Persistent time may be as high as 10,000 years

Source: IPCC,
2022
Water vapours: Role in global
warming
⮚Water vapour is the most abundant of all greenhouse
gases. However, due to their short life span (7 days), their
contribution towards global warming is less.

⮚Amount of water vapour in a region depends upon the

temperature of that region. For every 1 degree rise in
temperature, the amount of water vapour that can be held
in the atmosphere increases by 10 %.

⮚Water vapour contents highly depend upon the

presence/absence of other greenhouse gases, forming a
positive feedback loop.

⮚If the other greenhouse gases are removed from the

atmosphere, water vapour contents automatically decline.
Aerosols
Analysis of the effect of aerosols is difficult as they are short
lived and show an uneven distribution

Cooling effect: Sulphates and nitrates aerosols act primarily

by reflecting incoming solar radiation, thereby reducing the
amount of sunlight reaching the surface. These aerosols
impart a cooling effect.

Warming effect: Carbonaceous aerosols such as carbon

black or soot, which are produced by the burning of fossil
fuels and biomass, tends to absorb rather than reflect
incident solar radiation, and so it has a warming impact on
the lower atmosphere, where it resides.
⮚Carbon black is also capable of having an additional
indirect effect on climate.

⮚Through its deposition in snowfall, it can decrease the

albedo of snow cover.

⮚This reduction in the amount of solar radiation

reflected back to space by snow surfaces creates a
minor positive radiative forcing.
Albedo refers to the amount of solar energy that gets
reflected off of the Earth and lands back in space.
⮚Darker the surface, less the albedo, more is the
absorption of solar radiation.

⮚Ice reflects 50% to 60% of incoming solar heat.

⮚Deposition of carbon black leads to darker snow surface,

thus decreasing albedo
⮚Aerosols can also produce indirect effects on climate by
modifying cloud formation or cloud properties such as
reflectivity and absorption of solar energy.

⮚ Most aerosols serve as condensation nuclei (surfaces upon

which water vapour can condense to form clouds).

⮚Darker-coloured aerosols may hinder cloud formation by

absorbing sunlight and heating up the surrounding air.

⮚When aerosols are present, smaller clouds are formed,

smaller number of droplets reflect more sunlight (cloud
albedo effect).

⮚A highly reflective aerosol may have less effect on energy

balance, if it is present below a cloud.
Radiative forcing
Radiative forcing (RF) is a measure of the influence a factor
has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy
in the Earth-atmosphere system.

Incoming solar radiations absorbed by

RF Earth -
Energy radiated back to the
space

A positive RF warms the Earth, while a negative RF

cools it
Radiative Forcing of different factors
 Percentage contribution to global warming over the past
50-65 years

The studies are Tett et al. 2000 (T00, dark blue), Meehl et al. 2004 (M04, red), Stone et al. 2007 (S07, green), Lean and Rind 2008 (LR08,
purple), Huber and Knutti 2011 (HK11, light blue), Gillett et al. 2012 (G12, orange), Wigley and Santer 2012 (WG12, dark green),
Jones et al. 2013 (J13, pink), IPCC AR5 (IPCC, light green), and Ribes et al. 2016 (R16, light purple).