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Probability and Distribution

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Probability and Distribution

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anirbandutta541
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© © All Rights Reserved
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ASANSOL ENGINEERING COLLEGE

Probability and Distribution


PRESENTED BY:
NAME: 1.ROHAN DWIVEDI
2.SARBASIS MRINAL BANERJEE
3.SMRITI SADHU
ROLL NO: 1.10830621013
2.10830621014
3.10830621015
SUBJECT: PROBABILITY & STATISTICS
PAPER CODE: PCCAIML 501
SEMESTER: 4TH.
DEPARTMENT: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING
DISTRIBUTION
● Frequency Distribution: It is a listing of observed / actual
frequencies of all the outcomes of an experiment that actually
occurred when experiment was done.
● Probability Distribution: It is a listing of the probabilities of all the
possible outcomes that could occur if the experiment was done.
○ It can be described as:
■ A diagram (Probability Tree)
■ A table
■ A mathematical formula
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
● Discrete Distribution: Random Variable can take only limited
number of values. Ex: No. of heads in two tosses.

● Continuous Distribution: Random Variable can take any value. Ex:


Height of students in the class.
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
● There are certain phenomena in nature which can be identified as Bernoulli's
processes, in which:
○ There is a fixed number of n trials carried out
○ Each trial has only two possible outcomes say success or failure, true or false
etc.
○ Probability of occurrence of any outcome remains same over successive trials
○ Trials are statistically independent

● Binomial distribution is a discrete PD which expresses the probability of one set


of alternatives - success (p) and failure (q)
○ P(X = x) = nCr pr qn - r (Prob. Of r successes in n trials)
○ n = no. of trials undertaken or=no. of successes desired
○ p = probability of success
○ q = probability of failure
MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND
DISPERSION FOR THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
● Mean of BD: u =n0

● Standard Deviation of BD: sigma = sqrt(npq)


FITTING OF BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The fitting of the binomial distribution means that we try to obtain the frequency distribution of the
given data set assuming that it follows the binomial distribution.

Four coins are tossed 160 times and the following results were obtained:

Fit a binomial distribution under the assumption that the coins are unbiased.

Fit a binomial distribution to the following data


POISSON DISTRIBUTION
When there is a large number of trials, but a small probability of
success, binomial calculation becomes impractical

If lambda = mean no. of occurrences of an event per unit interval of


time/space, then probability that it will occur exactly prime x' times is
given by

P(x) = f(x) =(e– λ λx)/x! where e is napier constant & e = 2.7182


CHARACTERISTICS OF POISSON DISTRIBUTION
● It is a discrete distribution
● Occurrences are statistically independent
● Mean no. of occurrences in a unit of time is proportional to size of
unit (if 5 in one year, 10 in 2 years etc.)
● Mean of PD is λ = np
● Standard Deviation of PD is √λ = √np
● It is always right skewed.
● PD is a good approximation to BD when n> or = 20 and p< or =
0.05
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
● It is a continuous PD i.e. random variable can take on any value within a
given range. Ex: Height, Weight, Marks etc.
● Developed by eighteenth century mathematician - astronomer Karl Gauss,
so also called Gaussian Distribution.
● It is symmetrical, unimodal (one peak).
● Since it is symmetrical, its mean, median and mode all coincides i.e. all
three are same.
● The tails are asymptotic to horizontal axis i.e. curve goes to infinity
without touching horizontal axis.
● X axis represents random variable like height, weight etc.
● Y axis represents its probability density function.
● Area under the curve tells the probability.
● The total area under the curve is 1 (or 100%)
DEFINING A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
● Only two parameters are considered: Mean & Standard Deviation
○ Same Mean, Different Standard Deviations
○ Same SD, Different Means
○ Different Mean & Different Standard Deviations
AREA UNDER THE NORMAL CURVE
AREA UNDER THE CURVE
● The mean ± 1 standard deviation covers approx. 68% of the area under the
curve
● The mean ± 2 standard deviation covers approx. 95.5% of the area under
the curve
● The mean ± 3 standard deviation covers 99.7% of the area under the curve
STANDARD NORMAL PD
● In standard Normal PD, Mean = 0, SD = 1
● Z = (x - μ) / σ
○ Z= No. of std. deviations from x to mean. Also called Z Score
○ x = value of RV
THANK YOU

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