Applied Statistics and Probability

for Engineers

Seventh Edition
Douglas C. Montgomery George C. Runger

Chapter 9
Tests of Hypotheses for a Single Sample
Tests of Hypotheses: General
Concepts
Definition

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 10 - 3

What is a Hypothesis?

• A hypothesis is a claim
(assumption) about a
population parameter:
– population mean

Example: The mean monthly cell phone bill

of this city is μ = $42
– population proportion

Example: The proportion of adults in this

city with cell phones is p = .68
The Null Hypothesis, H0

• States the assumption (numerical) to be tested

Example: The average number of TV sets in U.S.
Homes is equal to three (H0 : μ 3 )
• Is always about a population parameter,
not about a sample statistic

H0 : μ 3 H0 : X 3
 The Null Hypothesis, H0
(continued)

• Begin with the assumption that the null

hypothesis is true
– Similar to the notion of innocent until
proven guilty
• Refers to the status quo
• Always contains “=” , “≤” or “” sign
• May or may not be rejected
The Alternative Hypothesis, H1

• Is the opposite of the null hypothesis

– e.g., The average number of TV sets in U.S.
homes is not equal to 3 ( H1: μ ≠ 3 )
• Challenges the status quo
• Never contains the “=” , “≤” or “” sign
• May or may not be supported
• Is generally the hypothesis that the
researcher is trying to support
Testing a Statistical Hypothesis
 Hypothesis Testing Process

Claim: the
population
mean age is 50.
(Null Hypothesis:
Population
H0: μ = 50 )
Now select a
random
Is X=20 likely if μ = 50? sample

If not likely, Suppose

the sample
REJECT mean age Sample
Null Hypothesis is 20: X = 20
 Reason for Rejecting H0

Sampling Distribution of
X

X
20 μ = 50
If H0 is true
If it is unlikely ... then we
that we would reject the null
get a sample ... if in fact this were hypothesis
mean of this the population that μ = 50.
value ... mean…
Level of Significance, 

• Defines the unlikely values of the sample

statistic if the null hypothesis is true
– Defines rejection region of the sampling
distribution
• Is designated by  , (level of significance)
– Typical values are .01, .05, or .10
• Is selected by the researcher at the beginning
• Provides the critical value(s) of the test
 Level of Significance
and the Rejection Region
Level of significance =a Represents
critical value
H0: μ = 3 a/2 a/2
Rejection
H1: μ ≠ 3 Two-tail test 0 region is
shaded
H0: μ ≤ 3 a
H1: μ > 3
Upper-tail 0
test
H0: μ ≥ 3
a
H1: μ < 3
Lower-tail 0
test
Errors in Making Decisions

• Type I Error
– Reject a true null hypothesis
– Considered a serious type of error

The probability of Type I Error is 

• Called level of significance of the test
• Set by researcher in advance
Errors in Making Decisions

• Type II Error
– Fail to reject a false null hypothesis

The probability of Type II Error is β

Outcomes and Probabilities

Possible Hypothesis Test Outcomes

Actual Situation
Decision H0 True H0 False
Do Not
No Error Type II Error
Key: Reject
(1 - a ) (β)
Outcome H0
(Probability) Reject Type I Error No Error
H0 (a) (1-β)
Type I & II Error Relationship

 Type I and Type II errors can not happen at

the same time
 Type I error can only occur if H0 is true
 Type II error can only occur if H0 is false

If Type I error probability

() ,then
Type II error probability ( β )
 Factors Affecting Type II Error

• All else equal,

– β when the difference between
hypothesized parameter and its true value

– β when 
– β when σ
– β when n
Power of the Test
• The power of a test is the probability of
rejecting a null hypothesis that is false

• i.e., Power = P(Reject H0 | H1 is true)

– Power of the test increases as the sample size

increases
 Example

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 10 - 19

 Example

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 10 - 20

The Use of P-Values for Decision
Making in Testing Hypotheses
 p-Value Approach to Testing

• p-value: Probability of obtaining a test

statistic more extreme ( ≤ or  ) than the
observed sample value given H0 is true
– Also called observed level of significance

– Smallest value of  for which H0 can be

rejected
Definition

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 10 - 23

 p-Value Approach to Testing
• Convert sample result (e.g., x ) to test statistic (e.g., z statistic )
• Obtain the p-value
– For an upper
x - μ0
tail test: p - value P(z  , given that H0 is true)
σ/ n
x - μ0
P(z  | μ μ0 )
σ/ n
• Decision rule: compare the p-value to 
– If p-value <  , reject H0
– If p-value   , do not reject H0
Example: p-Value Solution
Calculate the p-value and compare to 
(assuming that μ = 52.0)
p-value = .1894
P(x 53.1 | μ 52.0)
Reject H0
 = .10 53.1  52.0 

P z  
 10/ 64 
0
Do not reject H0 Reject H0
1.28 P(z 0.88) 1 .8106
Z = .88
.1894

Do not reject H0 since p-value = .1894 >  = .10

General Procedure for Hypothesis
Tests
One-Tail Tests

• In many cases, the alternative hypothesis

focuses on one particular direction

H0: μ ≤ 3 This is an upper-tail test since the

alternative hypothesis is focused
H1: μ > 3 on the upper tail above the mean
of 3
This is a lower-tail test since the
H0: μ ≥ 3
alternative hypothesis is focused
on the lower tail below the mean
H1: μ < 3 of 3
Upper-Tail Tests

 There is only one H0: μ ≤ 3

critical value, since H1: μ > 3
the rejection area
is in only one tail a

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

Z 0 zα
x μ

Critical xc
value
Lower-Tail Tests
H0: μ ≥ 3
 There is only one
critical value, since H1: μ < 3
the rejection area
is in only one tail a

Reject H0 Do not reject H0

-z 0 Z

μ x
Critical xc
value
Two-Tail Tests

• In some settings, the alternative

H0: μ = 3
hypothesis does not specify a
unique direction H1: μ ¹
3

/2 /2
 There are two
critical values, x
3
defining the
Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0
two regions of
-z/2 0 +z/2 z
rejection
Lower Upper
critical critical value
value
 Hypothesis Testing Example
Test the claim that the true mean # of TV
sets in US homes is equal to 3.
(Assume σ = 0.8)
 State the appropriate null and alternative
hypotheses
 H : μ = 3 , H : μ ≠ 3 (This is a two tailed test)
0 1
 Specify the desired level of significance
 Suppose that  = .05 is chosen for this test

 Choose a sample size

 Suppose a sample of size n = 100 is selected
 Hypothesis Testing Example
 Determine the appropriate technique

σ is known so this is a z test
 Set up the critical values
 For  = .05 the critical z values are ±1.96

 Collect the data and compute the test statistic

 Suppose the sample results are
n = 100, x = 2.84 (σ = 0.8 is assumed known)
So the test statistic is:
X  μ0 2.84  3  .16
z     2.0
σ 0.8 .08
n 100
Example: p-Value

• Example: How likely is it to see a sample mean of 2.84

(or something further from the mean, in either direction) if
the true mean is  = 3.0?
x = 2.84 is translated
to a z score of z = -2.0
P(z   2.0) .0228 /2 = .025 /2 = .025

.0228 .0228
P(z  2.0) .0228

p-value
= .0228 + .0228 = .0456 -1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.0 2.0
 Example: p-Value
• Compare the p-value with 
– If p-value <  , reject H0
– If p-value   , do not reject H0

Here: p-value = .0456 /2 = .025 /2 = .025

 = .05
.0228 .0228
Since .0456 < .05, we
reject the null
hypothesis
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.0 2.0
Connection Between Hypothesis Tests
and Confidence Intervals

• A close relationship exists between the test of a hypothesis for , and the confidence interval
for .

• If is a confidence interval for the parameter , the test of size of the hypothesis

will lead to rejection of if and only if is not in the .

Single Sample: Tests Concerning
a Single Mean
Hypothesis Tests for the Mean

Hypothesis
Tests for 

 Known  Unknown
 Test of Hypothesis
for the Mean (σ Known)
• Convert sample result ( x ) to a z value
Hypothesis
Tests for 

σ Known σ Unknown

Consider the test

H 0 : μ μ 0 The decision rule is:
H1 : μ  μ 0 x  μ0
Reject H0 if z   zα
σ
(Assume the population is n
normal)
Decision Rule

H0: μ = μ0
x  μ0
Reject H0 if z   zα H1: μ > μ0
σ
n

Alternate rule:
Reject H 0 if x  μ 0  Z α σ/ n a

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

Z 0 zα
x μ0 μ0  z α
σ
n

Critical xc
 p-Value Approach to Testing
• Convert sample result (e.g., x ) to test statistic (e.g., z statistic )
• Obtain the p-value
– For an upper
x - μ0
tail test: p - value P(z  , given that H0 is true)
σ/ n
x - μ0
P(z  | μ μ0 )
σ/ n
• Decision rule: compare the p-value to 

– If p-value <  , reject H0

– If p-value   , do not reject H0
 Example: Upper-Tail Z Test
for Mean ( Known)
A phone industry manager thinks that customer
monthly cell phone bill have increased, and now
average over $52 per month. The company
wishes to test this claim. (Assume  = 10 is
known)

Form hypothesis test:

H0: μ ≤ 52 the average is not over $52 per month
H1: μ > 52 the average is greater than $52 per
month
(i.e., sufficient evidence exists to support the
manager’s claim)
 Example: Find Rejection
Region
• Suppose that  = .10 is chosen for this test

Find the rejection region: Reject H0

 = .10

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

0 1.28

x  μ0
Reject H0 if z   1.28
σ/ n
Example: Sample Results

Obtain sample and compute the test statistic

Suppose a sample is taken with the following

results: n = 64, x = 53.1 ( = 10 was assumed known)
– Using the sample results,
x  μ0 53.1  52
z   0.88
σ 10
n 64
Example: Decision

Reach a decision and interpret the result:

Reject H0

 = .10

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

0
1.28
z = 0.88

Do not reject H0 since z = 0.88 < 1.28

i.e.: there is not sufficient evidence that the
mean bill is over $52
Example

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 10 - 45

Figure P-value for Example

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 10 - 46

Example

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 10 - 47

Figure P-value for Example

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 10 - 48

 t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean
(σ Unknown)
• Convert sample result ( x ) to a t test statistic
Hypothesis
Tests for 

σ Known σ Unknown

Consider the test

The decision rule is:
H 0 : μ μ 0
x  μ0
H1 : μ  μ 0 Reject H0 if t   t n-1, α
s
(Assume the population is n
normal)
 t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean
(σ Unknown)
• For a two-tailed test:
Consider the test
H 0 : μ μ 0 (Assume the population is
normal, and the population
H 1 : μ μ 0 variance is unknown)

The decision rule is:

x  μ0 x  μ0
Reject H0 if t    t n-1, α/2 or if t   t n-1, α/2
s s
n n
 Example: Two-Tail Test
( Unknown)
The average cost of a hotel room
in Chicago is said to be $168 per
night. A random sample of 25
hotels resulted in x = $172.50
and s = $15.40.
Test this claim at the  = 0.05
level. H0: μ =
(Assume the population distribution is normal)
168 H1: μ
¹ 168
 Example Solution:
Two-Tail Test

H0: μ = a/2=.025 a/2=.025

168 H1: μ
• ¹
a 168
= 0.05 Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0
-t n-1,α/2 0
t n-1,α/2
• n = 25 -2.0639 2.0639
1.46
•  is unknown, so x μ 172.50  168
use a t statistic t n 1   1.46
s 15.40
• Critical Value: n 25

t24 , .025 = ± 2.0639 Do not reject H0: not sufficient evidence that
true mean cost is different than $168
One Sample: Test on a Single
Proportion
Tests for a Population
Proportion
• Our hypothesis test is similar to the one we saw
before. But now we have a sample that consists
of successes and failures, with “success”
indicating a defective wafer.
• If the population proportion of defective wafers is
denoted by p, the supplier’s claim is that p  0.1.
• Since our hypothesis concerns a population
proportion, it is natural to base the test on the
sample proportion.
Hypothesis Test
• Let X be the number of successes in n
independent Bernoulli trials, each with success
probability p; in other words, let X ~ Bin(n, p).
• To test a null hypothesis of the form H0: p  p0,
H0: p ≥ p0, or H0: p = p0, assuming that both
np0 and n(1- p0) are greater than 10:
• Compute the z-score: pˆ  p
0
z .
p 0 (1  p 0 ) / n
P-value for the Hypothesis Test

Compute the P-value. The P-value is an area under the

normal curve, which depends on the alternate hypothesis
as follows:
• If the alternative hypothesis is H1: p > p0, the P-value
is the area to the right of z.
• If the alternative hypothesis is H1: p < p0, the P-value
is the area to the left of z.
• If the alternative hypothesis is H1: p  p0, the P-value
is the sum of the areas in the tails cut off by z and z.
Example

A supplier of semiconductor wafers claims that of

all the wafers he supplies, no more than 10% are
defective. A sample of 400 wafers is tested, and 50
of them, or 12.5%, are defective. Can we conclude
that the claim is false?
Hypothesis Tests on the
Variance
Example 9.8| Automated Filling

• An automated filling machine is used to fill bottles with liquid detergent. A random sample of 20 bottles
results in a sample variance of fill volume of s2 = 0.0153 (fluid ounces)2. If the variance of fill volume
exceeds 0.01 (fluid ounces)2, an unacceptable proportion of bottles will be underfilled or overfilled. Is there
evidence in the sample data to suggest that the manufacturer has a problem with underfilled or overfilled
bottles? Use  = 0.05, and assume that fill volume has a normal distribution.
• Using the seven-step procedure results in the following:
Example 9.8| Automated Filling

• An automated filling machine is used to fill bottles with liquid detergent. A random sample of 20 bottles
results in a sample variance of fill volume of s2 = 0.0153 (fluid ounces)2. If the variance of fill volume
exceeds 0.01 (fluid ounces)2, an unacceptable proportion of bottles will be underfilled or overfilled. Is there
evidence in the sample data to suggest that the manufacturer has a problem with underfilled or overfilled
bottles? Use  = 0.05, and assume that fill volume has a normal distribution.
• Using the seven-step procedure results in the following: