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Probability

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Suhail Wani
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2 views

Probability

Uploaded by

Suhail Wani
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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we usually come across such statements ;

(1) It will probably rain today.


(2) I doubt that he will pass the test.
(3) Most probably, Kavita will stand first in the annual examination.
(4) Chances are high that the prices of diesel will go up.
(5) There is a 50-50 chance of India winning a toss in today’s match

The words ‘probably’, ‘doubt’, ‘most probably’, ‘chances’, etc., used in the
statements above involve an element of uncertainty. For example, in (1), ‘probably
rain’ will mean it may rain or may not rain today. We are predicting rain today based
on our past experience when it rained under similar conditions. Similar predictions are
also made in other cases listed in (2) to (5).

The uncertainty of ‘probably’ etc can be measured numerically by means of


‘probability

.
In our day to day life, we perform many activities which have a fixed result no matter any number of times they are repeated.
For example given any triangle, without knowing the three angles, we can definitely say that the sum of measure of angles is
180°.

We also perform many experimental activities, where the result may not be same, when they are repeated under identical
conditions. For example, when a coin is tossed it may turn up a head or a tail, but we are not sure which one of these results will
actually be obtained. Such experiments are called random experiments.

Random Experiments
An experiment is called random experiment if it satisfies the following two conditions:
(i) It has more than one possible outcome.
(ii) It is not possible to predict the outcome in advance.

For example tossing of a coin


Throw of a die
Drawing a ball from the pot

Outcomes and sample space A possible result of a random experiment is called its outcome
Consider the experiment of rolling a die. The outcomes of this experiment are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
In tossing of a coin the outcomes of are head and the tail .
The set of outcomes {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} is called the sample space of the experiment.

Thus, the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample
space associated with the experiment. Sample space is denoted by the symbol S
.
Each element of the sample space is called a sample point.

In other words, each outcome of the random experiment is also called sample point.

TRIAL : performing of a random experiment is called a trial . That means throwing of a coin is a trial , drawing of a ball
from a bucket is a trial . If we toss a coin 10 times , number of trials is 10 .

So, a trial is an action which results in one or several outcomes


Consider the experiment of tossing a coin two times. An associated sample space is S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

Now suppose that we are interested in those outcomes which correspond to the occurrence of exactly one head. We find that
HT and TH are the only elements of S corresponding to the occurrence of this happening (event). These two elements form
the set E = { HT, TH}

We know that the set E is a subset of the sample space S . Similarly, we find the
following correspondence between events and subsets of S.

Description of events Corresponding subset of ‘S’


Number of tails is exactly 2 A = {TT}
Number of tails is atleast one B = {HT, TH, TT}
Number of heads is atmost one C = {HT, TH, TT}
Second toss is not head D = { HT, TT}
Number of tails is atmost two S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Number of tails is more than two o

Definition Any subset E of a sample space S is called an event. We have to define our event in probability .
Occurrence of an event Consider the experiment of throwing a die.

Let E denotes the event “ a number less than 4 appears”. If actually ‘1’ had appeared on the die then we say that event E has
occurred. As a matter of fact if outcomes are 2 or 3, we say that event E has occurred . Thus, the event E of a sample space S is
said to have occurred if the outcome ω of the experiment is such that ω E. If the outcome ω is such that ω ∉ E, we say that the
event E has not occurred .

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