Project Finalcial Analysis Methods 2024
Project Finalcial Analysis Methods 2024
1
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• Understand the nature and importance of investment decisions
• Describe the non-DCF evaluation criteria: payback and
accounting rate of return.
• Explain the methods of calculating net present value (NPV)
and internal rate of return (IRR)
• Show the implications of net present value (NPV) and
internal rate of return (IRR)
• Illustrate the computation of MIRR
2
Nature of Investment Decisions
• The investment decisions of a firm are generally known as the
capital budgeting, or capital expenditure decisions.
3
Features of Investment Decisions
• The exchange of current funds for future
benefits.
4
Types of Investment Decisions
• One classification is as follows:
– Expansion of existing business
– Expansion of new business
– Replacement and modernisation
• Yet another useful way to classify investments
is as follows:
– Mutually exclusive investments
– Independent investments
– Contingent investments
5
Investment Evaluation Criteria
• Three steps are involved in the evaluation of
an investment:
1. Estimation of cash flows
2. Estimation of the required rate of return (the
opportunity cost of capital)
3. Application of a decision rule for making the
choice
6
Investment Decision Rule
• It should maximise the shareholders’ wealth.
• It should consider all cash flows to determine the true
profitability of the project.
• It should provide for an objective and unambiguous way of
separating good projects from bad projects.
• It should help ranking of projects according to their true
profitability.
• It should recognise the fact that bigger cash flows are preferable to
smaller ones and early cash flows are preferable to later ones.
• It should help to choose among mutually exclusive projects that
project which maximises the shareholders’ wealth.
• It should be a criterion which is applicable to any conceivable
investment project independent of others.
7
DETERMINING CASH FLOWS FOR INVESTMENT
ANALYSIS
9
INCREMENTAL CASH FLOWS
• Every investment involves a comparison of alternatives:
10
Example 1
• Suppose a firm is considering replacing an equipment at book
value of Rs. 5000 and market value of Rs. 3000. New
equipment will require an initial cash outlay of Rs 10,000, and
is estimated to generate cash flows of Rs 8,000, Rs 7,000 and Rs
4,500 for the next 3 years.
• The book value of old machine is a sunk cost. Market value is
opportunity cost.
• Thus, on an incremental basis the net cash outflow of new
equipment is: Rs 10,000 – Rs 3,000 = Rs 7,000.
• Also, The differences of the cash flows of new equipment over
the cash flows of old equipment are incremental cash flows.
11
COMPONENTS OF CASH FLOWS
• Initial Investment
• Net Cash Flows
– Depreciation and Taxes
– Net Working Capital
• Change in accounts receivable
• Change in inventory
• Change in accounts payable
– Free Cash Flows
• Terminal Cash Flows
– Salvage Value
• Salvage value of the new asset
• Salvage value of the existing asset now
• Salvage value of the existing asset at the end of its normal
• Tax effect of salvage value
– Release of Net Working Capital
12
Initial Investment
13
Net Cash Flows
• Consist of annual cash flows occurring from the operation of
an investment, but it is also be affected by changes in net
working capital and capital expenditures during the life of the
investment.
Net cash flow = Revenues - Expenses - Taxes
NCF = REV - EXP - TAX
• The computation of the after-tax cash flows requires a careful
treatment of non-cash expense items such as depreciation.
• Depreciation, calculated as per the income tax rules
influences cash flows indirectly by way of depreciation tax
shield.
14
Example
• Consider the following statement
• Sales 300,000
• Variable costs (175,000)
• Fixed cost (24,000)
• Depreciation (75,000)
• EBIT 26,000
• Taxes 34% ( 8,840)
• Net income 17,160
16
Terminal Cash Flow: Salvage Value
• Salvage value is a terminal cash flow.
• Salvage value may be defined as the market
price of an investment at the time of its sale.
• No immediate tax liability (or tax savings)
arises on the sale of an asset because the
value of the asset sold is adjusted in the
depreciable base of assets.
17
Cash Flow Estimates for New Products
18
Cash Flow Estimates for Replacement Decisions
19
Evaluation Criteria
20
PAYBACK
• Payback is the number of years required to recover the
original cash outlay invested in a project.
• If the project generates constant annual cash inflows, the
payback period can be computed by dividing cash outlay by
the annual cash inflow. That is:
Initial Investment C0
Payback =
Annual Cash Inflow C
21
Example
• Assume that a project requires an outlay of Rs
50,000 and yields annual cash inflow of Rs
12,500 for 7 years. The payback period for the
project is:
Rs 50,000
PB 4 years
Rs 12,500
22
PAYBACK
• Unequal cash flows In case of unequal cash inflows, the
payback period can be found out by adding up the cash
inflows until the total is equal to the initial cash outlay.
• Suppose that a project requires a cash outlay of Rs 20,000,
and generates cash inflows of Rs 8,000; Rs 7,000; Rs 4,000;
and Rs 3,000 during the next 4 years. What is the project’s
payback?
3 years + 12 × (1,000/3,000) months
3 years + 4 months
23
DISCOUNTED PAYBACK PERIOD
24
ACCOUNTING RATE OF RETURN METHOD
25
Example
• A project will cost Rs 40,000. Its stream of earnings
before depreciation, interest and taxes (EBDIT)
during first year through five years is expected to be
Rs 10,000, Rs 12,000, Rs 14,000, Rs 16,000 and Rs
20,000. Assume a 50 per cent tax rate and
depreciation on straight-line basis.
26
Calculation of Accounting Rate of Return
27
Acceptance Rule
• This method will accept all those projects
whose ARR is higher than the minimum rate
established by the management and reject
those projects which have ARR less than the
minimum rate.
29
Net Present Value Method
• Cash flows of the investment project should be forecasted
based on realistic assumptions.
• Appropriate discount rate should be identified to discount the
forecasted cash flows.
• Present value of cash flows should be calculated using the
opportunity cost of capital as the discount rate.
• Net present value should be found out by subtracting present
value of cash outflows from present value of cash inflows. The
project should be accepted if NPV is positive (i.e., NPV > 0).
30
Net Present Value Method
31
Example
• Consider an investment which has the
following cash flows:
• Initial investment is 32,000/-
32
Evaluation of the NPV Method
• NPV is most acceptable investment rule for
the following reasons:
– Time value
– Measure of true profitability
– Value-additivity
– Shareholder value
• Limitations:
– Involved cash flow estimation
– Difficult to determine the discount rate
– Mutually exclusive projects
– Ranking of projects
33
INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN METHOD
• The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate that equates the
investment outlay with the present value of cash inflow
received after one period. This also implies that the rate of
return is the discount rate which makes NPV = 0.
34
CALCULATION OF IRR
• Uneven Cash Flows: Calculating IRR by Trial and Error
– The approach is to select any discount rate to compute the present
value of cash inflows. If the calculated present value of the
expected cash inflow is lower than the present value of cash
outflows, a lower rate should be tried. On the other hand, a higher
value should be tried if the present value of inflows is higher than
the present value of outflows. This process will be repeated unless
the net present value becomes zero.
Example
A project costs Rs.16,000 and is expected to generate cash
inflows of Rs.8,000, Rs.7,000 and Rs.6,000 at the end of each
year for next three years.
Find the IRR.
35
Year Cash flow Rate 0 1 2 3 NPV
0 -16000 0% -16000 8000 7000 6000 5000.00
1 8000 5% -16000 8000 7000 6000 3151.28
2 7000 10% -16000 8000 7000 6000 1565.74
3 6000 15% -16000 8000 7000 6000 194.62
IRR 16% 20% -16000 8000 7000 6000 -1000.00
2000 1566
36
CALCULATION OF IRR
• Level Cash Flows
– Let us assume that an investment would cost Rs.20,000 and provide
annual cash inflow of Rs.5,430 for 6 years
– The IRR of the investment can be found out as follows
37
NPV Profile and IRR
NPV Profile
38
Acceptance Rule
• Accept the project when r > k
40
NPV vs. IRR
• Conventional Independent Projects:
In case of conventional investments, which are
economically independent of each other, NPV and IRR
methods result in same accept-or-reject decision if the
firm is not constrained for funds in accepting all
profitable projects.
41
NPV vs. IRR
•Lending and borrowing-type projects:
Project with initial outflow followed by inflows is a lending
type project, and project with initial inflow followed by
outflows is a borrowing type project, Both are conventional
projects.
42
Problem of Multiple IRRs
• A project may have both
lending and borrowing
features together. IRR
method, when used to
evaluate such non-
conventional investment can
yield multiple internal rates of
return because of more than
one change of signs in cash
flows.
• Consider the following project
Period Cash flow
1 -1,000
2 4,000
3 -3,750
43
Example
• Suppose we have a strip-mining project that requires a
Rs.6,000/- investment. The investment cash flow in the first
year will be Rs.15,500/-. In the second year, the mine will
be depleted, but we will have to spend Rs.10,000/- to
restore the terrain.
45
Timing of cash flows
The most commonly found condition for the conflict between
the NPV and IRR methods is the difference in the timing of cash
flows. Let us consider the following two Projects, M and N.
46
Cont…
The NPV profiles of two projects intersect at 10 per cent discount rate.
This is called Fisher’s intersection.
47
MODIFIED INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (MIRR)
Step2: Calculate the terminal value (TV) of the cash inflows expected from the
project
49
Profitability Index
• The objective of the NPV rule under capital constraint should be
to maximise NPV per rupee of capital rather than to maximise
NPV.
• Projects should be ranked by their profitability index, and top-
ranked projects should be undertaken until funds are exhausted.
• The Profitability Index does not always work. It fails in two
situations:
– Multi-period capital constraints.
– Project indivisibility.
51
PROFITABILITY INDEX
• The initial cash outlay of a project is Rs 100,000 and it can
generate cash inflow of Rs 40,000, Rs 30,000, Rs 50,000
and Rs 20,000 in year 1 through 4. Assume a 10 percent
rate of discount. The PV of cash inflows at 10 percent
discount rate is:
52
Acceptance Rule
• The following are the PI acceptance rules:
– Accept the project when PI is greater than one.
PI > 1
– Reject the project when PI is less than one. PI < 1
– May accept the project when PI is equal to one.
PI = 1
• The project with positive NPV will have PI
greater than one. PI less than means that the
project’s NPV is negative.
53
Evaluation of PI Method
• Time value:It recognises the time value of money.
54
Investment Decisions Under Capital Rationing
55
Why Capital Rationing?
• There are two types of capital rationing:
56
Profitability Index: Example
• The NPV and profitability index of the following four
projects are shown. Given the budget constraint of Rs 50,
projects M and N will be selected as per PI.
57
Examples
• A company is considering the following six projects:
Project Cost (Rs.) NPV(Rs.)
A 1,000 210
B 6,000 1,560
C 5,000 850
D 2,000 260
E 2,500 500
F 500 95
59
Investment Decisions Under Inflation
• Executives generally estimate cash flows assuming unit costs and selling
price prevailing in year zero to remain unchanged. They argue that if
there is inflation, prices can be increased to cover increasing costs;
therefore, the impact on the project’s profitability would be the same if
they assume rate of inflation to be zero.
60
Nominal VS. Real Rates of Return
• For a correct analysis, two alternatives are available:
– either the cash flows should be converted into nominal terms and then
discounted at the nominal required rate of return, or
– the discount rate should be converted into real terms and used to discount the
real cash flows
61
• It would be inconsistent to discount the real cash flows of
the project by the nominal discount rate. For example, in
case of following cash flows discounting with 14%
nominal rate of real cash flows returns negative NPV:
64
Projects with Different Lives
• The choice between projects which have different lives should
be made by evaluating them for equal periods of time.
• Example: A firm has to choose between two projects X and Y,
which are designed differently, but perform essentially the same
function. Cash flows of projects are in real terms and the real
discount rate is 10 per cent. The present value of costs are
shown below:( Rs.120,000 Initial outlay and operating cash
expenses of Rs.30,000 per year for 4 years).
65
Projects with Different Lives
• Project X has 4-year life while Project Y has 2-year
life. Project Y will be replicated to compare it with
Project X. Project Y costs more than project X.
66
Annual Equivalent Value (AEV) Method
NPV
AEV
Annuity factor
67
AEV: Example
• In the earlier example, the present value of cash flows of X is Rs
215,100. You can divide Rs 215,100 by a 4-year present value
factor for an annuity of Rs 1 at 10 per cent (3.1699) to obtain
AEV. Similarly, AEV for Y can be calculated. Y is more costly.
NPV
AEVProject X =
Annuity factor
215,100
= = Rs 67,857
3.1699
129, 420
AEVProject Y = = Rs 74,572
1.7355
68
AEV for Perpetuities
• When we assume that projects can be replicated at
constant scale indefinitely, we imply that an annuity is
paid at the end of every n years starting from the first
period.
(1 k ) n
NPV (NPVn ) n
(1 k ) 1
where NPV¥ is the present value of the investment
indefinitely, NPVn is the present value of the investment
for the original life, n and k is the opportunity cost of
capital.
69
Nominal Cash Flows and Annual
Equivalent Value
• Continue with earlier example. Let us assume expected inflation of
4% . The real cash flows of X and Y can be converted into nominal
cash flow (as shown below) and the real discount rate into nominal
discount rate: (1.04) x(1.10) -1=0.144. Notice that the ranking of
projects changes at higher inflation rate of 15%. Thus, the choice
should be based on real AEV.
70
Inflation and Annual Equivalent Value
Investment Timing and Duration
• The rule is straightforward: undertake the
project at that point of time, which maximizes
the NPV.
71
Replacement of an Existing Asset
• Replacement decisions should be governed by
the economics and necessity considerations.
72
Example
• A company is operating equipment, which is expected to
produce net cash inflows of Rs 4,000, Rs 3,000 and Rs 2,000
respectively for next 3 years. A design, which is considered to
be a technological improvement and more efficient to
operate, has appeared in the market. It is expected that the
new machine will cost Rs 12,000 and will provide net cash
inflow of Rs 6,000 a year for 5 years. What should the
company do? Assume 12 per cent discount rate.
73
Example
• The correct method of analysis is to compare the annual
equivalent value (AEV) of the old and new equipments as given
below.
• A chain of new machines is equivalent to an annuity of Rs 9,630
3.605 = Rs 2,671 a year for the life of the chain. The existing
machine is still capable of providing an annuity of: Rs 7,390
2.402 = Rs 3,076. So long as the existing machine generates a
cash inflow of more than Rs 2,671 there does not seem to be an
economic justification for replacing it.
74
Exercise
Consider the following cash flows of the three independent projects for ABC Ltd. Assume the
discount rate for the company is 12 percent. Further, the company has only Rs.20 million to
invest in new projects this year.
77