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Chap 5 Theory of Probability and Statistics

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10 views10 pages

Chap 5 Theory of Probability and Statistics

Uploaded by

Soumyajit dey
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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POISSON

DISTRIBUTION
CHAPTER 5
INTRODUCTION
◦In Statistics, Poisson distribution is one of the
important topics. It is used for calculating the
possibilities for an event with the average rate of
value. Poisson distribution is a discrete
probability distribution. In this article, we are going to
discuss the definition, Poisson distribution formula,
table, mean and variance, and examples in detail.
Poisson Distribution Definition
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability function that means
the variable can only take specific values in a given list of numbers,
probably infinite. A Poisson distribution measures how many times an
event is likely to occur within “x” period of time. In other words, we can
define it as the probability distribution that results from the Poisson
experiment. A Poisson experiment is a statistical experiment that
classifies the experiment into two categories, such as success or
failure. Poisson distribution is a limiting process of the binomial
distribution.
A Poisson random variable “x” defines the number of successes in the
experiment. This distribution occurs when there are events that do not
occur as the outcomes of a definite number of outcomes. Poisson
distribution is used under certain conditions. They are:
• The number of trials “n” tends to infinity
• Probability of success “p” tends to zero
• np = 1 is finite
Poisson Distribution Formula
The formula for the Poisson distribution function
is given by:
f(x) =(e– λ λx)/x!
Where,
e is the base of the logarithm
x is a Poisson random variable
λ is an average rate of value
Poisson Distribution Table
As with the binomial distribution, there is a table that we
can use under certain conditions that will make
calculating probabilities a little easier when using the
Poisson Distribution. The table is showing the values of
f(x) = P(X ≥ x), where X has a Poisson distribution with
parameter λ. Refer the values from the table and
substitute it in the Poisson distribution formula to get the
probability value. The table displays the values of the
Poisson distribution.
Poisson Distribution Mean and Variance

Assume that, we conduct a Poisson experiment, in which the


average number of successes within a given range is taken as
λ. In Poisson distribution, the mean of the distribution is
represented by λ and e is constant, which is approximately
equal to 2.71828. Then, the Poisson probability is:
P(x, λ ) =(e– λ λx)/x!
In Poisson distribution, the mean is represented as E(X) = λ.
For a Poisson Distribution, the mean and the variance are
equal. It means that E(X) = V(X)
Where,
V(X) is the variance.
Poisson Distribution Expected Value
A random variable is said to have a Poisson distribution with the
parameter λ, where “λ” is considered as an expected value of
the Poisson distribution.
The expected value of the Poisson distribution is given as
follows:
E(x) = μ = d(eλ(t-1))/dt, at t=1.
E(x) = λ
Therefore, the expected value (mean) and the variance of the
Poisson distribution is equal to λ.
Poisson Distribution Examples
An example to find the probability using the Poisson distribution is given
below:
Example 1:
A random variable X has a Poisson distribution with parameter λ such that
P (X = 1) = (0.2) P (X = 2). Find P (X = 0).
Solution:
For the Poisson distribution, the probability function is defined as:
P (X =x) = (e– λ λx)/x!, where λ is a parameter.
Given that, P (x = 1) = (0.2) P (X = 2)
(e– λ λ1)/1! = (0.2)(e– λ λ2)/2!
⇒λ = λ2/ 10
⇒λ = 10
Now, substitute λ = 10, in the formula, we get:
P (X =0 ) = (e– λ λ0)/0!
P (X =0) = e-10 = 0.0000454
Thus, P (X= 0) = 0.0000454
Example 2:
Telephone calls arrive at an exchange according to the Poisson process at
a rate λ= 2/min. Calculate the probability that exactly two calls will be
received during each of the first 5 minutes of the hour.
Solution:
Assume that “N” be the number of calls received during a 1 minute
period.
Therefore,
P(N= 2) = (e-2. 22)/2!
P(N=2) = 2e-2.
Now, “M” be the number of minutes among 5 minutes considered, during
which exactly 2 calls will be received. Thus “M” follows a binomial
distribution with parameters n=5 and p= 2e-2.
P(M=5) = 32 x e-10
P(M =5) = 0.00145, where “e” is a constant, which is approximately
equal to 2.718.

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