by
Time Series:
Unlocking the
Secrets of Data
Patterns
Explore the fascinating world of time series analysis and uncover
hidden patterns in data for better decision-making and forecasting.
What is Time Series Analysis?
Definition
Time series analysis is the study of data collected over a period of time to
understand and predict future trends.
Importance
It helps uncover patterns, detect anomalies, and extract valuable insights from
time-varying data.
Applications
From finance to weather forecasting, time series analysis is crucial in various
fields for making informed decisions.
Components of Time Series Data
Trend Seasonality Residuals
The long-term increasing or Repeating patterns or The random and
decreasing pattern in the fluctuations within a fixed unpredictable fluctuations
data that can reveal time frame, such as left after removing trend
underlying factors or weekly, monthly, or yearly and seasonality from the
conditions. cycles. data.
Time Series Forecasting
Forecasting Methods Evaluating Forecasts Confidence Intervals
Explore various techniques Learn how to assess the Understand the uncertainty
like ARIMA, exponential performance of time series of predictions by calculating
smoothing, and machine models using metrics like confidence intervals around
learning for accurate future MAE, RMSE, and MAPE. forecasted values.
predictions.
Basic Time Series Models
1 Moving Average (MA) 2 Autoregressive (AR)
Averages of past observations used to Linear regression model that uses past
smooth out random fluctuations. observations to predict the future by
creating a relationship between the
current data point and previous data
points.
3 Autoregressive Moving 4 Exponential Smoothing
Average (ARMA)
A weighted average method that gives
A combination of AR and MA models for more importance to recent
capturing both linear and random observations while forecasting.
patterns in the data.
Advanced Time Series Models
1 ARIMA
An extension of ARMA that handles
non-stationary data by differencing
SARIMA 2 to achieve stationarity.
Seasonal ARIMA model that
considers both trend and seasonal
components for more accurate 3 Prophet
forecasts.
Open-source library developed by
Facebook for forecasting time
series data, incorporating
seasonality and other relevant
factors.
Challenges in Time Series Analysis
Noise Missing Data Non-Stationarity
Irregular fluctuations or Incomplete or unavailable Data that does not have a
outliers that can distort data points that require constant mean and
patterns and make careful handling to ensure variance, making it difficult
interpretation challenging. accurate analysis and to model using traditional
forecasting. methods.
