Binomial Distribution

Jamie Frost
www.drfrost.org
@DrFrostMaths

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@DrFrostResource

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Last modified:5th August 2024 charity in England and Wales (no
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Teacher Notes
Prerequisite
Knowledge Future Links
• Discrete random variables • Hypothesis testing for a
• Binomial expansion population proportion.
• Geometric distribution.
• Poisson distribution.
• Negative binomial distribution.

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Using the Dr Frost online platform
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Generate a Start an
random independent
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involving skills in skills in this
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setting).
drfrost.org/w/73 drfrost.org/p/73
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drfrost.org/s/123a
subskill to allow you further Test Your Understanding opportunities. (e.g.
drfrost.org/s/123a)
Skills in this Lesson
639 Binomial distribution
639a Determine a binomial model appropriate for a given context.
639b Determine the probability of no successes or all successes.
639c Calculate binomial probabilities in the form (no context), and appreciate
the relationship of this formula with the binomial expansion of
639d Calculate binomial probabilities in the form in context.
639e Know the assumptions made when modelling using a binomial distribution.

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charity in England and Wales (no
Using the Dr Frost online platform
Clicking this box takes you to a single question practice for a
drfrost.org/s/123a
subskill to allow you further Test Your Understanding opportunities. (e.g.
drfrost.org/s/123a)
Skills in this Lesson
639 Binomial distribution
639f Calculate cumulative binomial probabilities (no context).
639g Calculate cumulative binomial probabilities in context.
639h Calculate the probability of a range for a binomial distribution.
639i Use a binomial probability to calculate another binomial probability.
639j Determine the probability of success given the probability of at least one
success.
639k Determine the number of trials given the probability of at least one
success.
639l Use the probability of success obtained from a binomial distribution to
find an unknown in a given function.
639m Determine a range in a binomial model that leads to a given probability.
639n Determine an unknown in a binomial distribution given a ratio between
probabilities.

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charity in England and Wales (no
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Introducing ‘Off-the-Shelf’ Probability
Distributions
In skill 549, we explored Discrete Random Variables.
This associates probabilities of our choosing with possible
outcomes.

We need to define: 𝑝(𝑥)

1. The possible
outcomes. 0.4

2. The mapping from

𝑥
outcomes to probabilities. 1234

We saw we can use a 1

𝑝 ( 𝑥 )= 𝑥 , 𝑥= 1, 2 , 3 , 4
function to define this 10
mapping:
Introducing ‘Off-the-Shelf’ Probability
Distributions
We can use off-the-shelf distributions which have particular
behaviour/shapes that model common scenarios.
These have the advantage that the outcomes and probability
function are already defined and can often be directly calculated
on some calculators where the formula is in-built.
𝑝(𝑥)

Discrete uniform distribution 1

Outcomes 6
Probability function

𝑥
123456
For example, a discrete
uniform distribution models
a single trial where each
outcome is equally likely,
e.g. the throw of a fair dice.
Introducing ‘Off-the-Shelf’ Probability
Distributions

Being able to use common

distributions like this is a
relief when the probability
functions are particularly
complex!

175 𝑎𝑏 Height (cm)

Normal Distribution
Outcomes
Probability of a range
🫤

We sometimes need to specify We explore

constants, known as parameters, normal
that allow us to control the distributions in
distribution. For example, we can skills 640-643.
set the mean height using
 Back in 2010 Dr Frost was on holiday in
Lefti
Lefti Hawaii and visited the family of a friend.
e
Leftie They noticed at the dinner table that
e Lefti out of the 8 people there, 6 were
e
left-handed (including Dr Frost).
One of them commented, “The chances
Lefti
e
of that must be very low”.
Lefti “CHALLENGE ACCEPTED”.
e
Binomial Distribution to the Rescue
Back in 2010 Dr Frost was on holiday in Hawaii and
visited the family of a friend. They noticed at the dinner
table that out of the 8 people there, 6 were left-
handed (including Dr Frost).
One of them commented, “The chances of that must be
very low”.
“CHALLENGE 𝑝(𝑥)
ACCEPTED”.
If we assume of
the world
population in
general is left-
we want handed, why is this
this probability the
greatest?
𝑥 Out of people, we
01234 5678 expect of people to be
left-handed on average.
Number of lefties ?
is closest to , so will
Let’s try to form a probability have the greatest
distribution where the probability.
outcomes are the number of
people out of who are
left-handed.
Probability of No Successes or All
Successes
Back in 2010 Dr Frost was on holiday in Hawaii and
visited the family of a friend. They noticed at the dinner
table that out of the 8 people there, 6 were left-
handed (including Dr Frost).
One of them commented, “The chances of that must be
very low”.
If the probability of a
“CHALLENGE 𝑝(𝑥)
ACCEPTED”.
person being left-
handed is what is the
probability of all
people being left-
we want handed?
this
8

What is the 𝑥 0.1 =0.00000001

probability of no one
01234 5678
Number of lefties
being left-handed?
If we just had people, the
8
0.9 =0.430 … probability the first is left-
handed and the second is left-
The probability each handed is , i.e. we multiply the
person is not left-handed probabilities.
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/ 639b
s/

1 I throw a fair dice times, and count the number

of sixes that are thrown.
Determine the probability that:
a every throw is a six.
b none of the throws are a six.

( ) ( )
5 5
a 1 𝟏 5 𝟑𝟏𝟐𝟓
=
? b ?=
6 𝟕𝟕𝟕𝟔 6 𝟕𝟕𝟕𝟔

2 [OCR Additional Maths June 2018 Q9ai]

The proportion of people who are left-handed is .
For a group of students chosen at random, find
the probability that no student is left-handed.
(2 marks)

10
?
0.8 =𝟎 . 𝟏𝟎𝟕
Probability of 1 Success
𝑝(𝑥)

8
𝑝 ( 8 ) =0.1
we want
8
𝑝 ( 0 ) =0.9 this It could have been
the 1st person on
𝑥 the table who was
01234 5678 the leftie.

If the probability of a L R R R R R R R
person being left- 𝟕
handed is what is the 0.1 × 0.9× 0.9 ×0.9 × 0.9× 0.9 ×0.9 × 0.9=𝟎 .𝟏 × 𝟎 .𝟗
probability of exactly R L R R R R R R
one person being 8 0.9 × 0.1× 0.9 ×0.9 × 0.9× 0.9 ×0.9 × 0.9=𝟎 .𝟏 × 𝟎 .𝟗𝟕
left-handed? But it could also
have been the 2nd
There’s ways in person.
total that of the R R R R R R R L
𝟕
people could be left- 0.9 × 0.1× 0.9 ×0.9 × 0.9× 0.9 ×0.9 × 0.9=𝟎 .𝟏 × 𝟎 .𝟗
handed, each with
𝟕
probability 𝑝 (1 )=𝟖 ×𝟎 . 𝟏 ×𝟎 . 𝟗 ≈ 𝟎 . 𝟑𝟖𝟑
Probability of Any Number of Successes
𝑝(𝑥) 8
𝑝 (1 )=8 × 0.1 ×0.9

8
𝑝 ( 8 ) =0.1
we want
8
𝑝 ( 0 ) =0.9 this It could have been
these particular
𝑥 people on the table
01234 5678 who were the lefties.

If the probability of a L L L L L L R R
person being left- 𝟔 𝟐
handed is , what is 0.1 × 0.1× 0.1× 0.1× 0.1 ×0.1 × 0.9× 0.9=𝟎 .𝟏 ×𝟎 . 𝟗
the probability of How many ways could of
exactly people the people be left-handed?Recall that “8 choose 6”
being left-handed? gives the number of
ways of choosing items
from . Use the ‘choose’
button on your
𝟔 𝟐
∴𝑝 ( 6 )=𝟐𝟖×𝟎.𝟏 ×𝟎.𝟗
calculator.

This is roughly a
in chance!
The Binomial Distribution
! We can model a random variable with a binomial distribution if
• there are a fixed number of trials, ,
• there are two possible outcomes: ‘success’ and ‘failure’,
• there is a fixed probability of success,
• the trials are independent of each other

If then:

Notation for using an In our ‘ out of lefties’

‘off-the-shelf’ example
distribution: ? a
‘Success’ was being
𝑋 𝐵 (𝑛, 𝑝 )
“with
leftie
𝑛=𝟖 ?
parameters
and .” 𝑝=𝟎 .𝟏?
“The random “a binomial
variable …” distribution…
”
𝑥=𝟔 ?
“has the
distribution
…”
How to Identify When to Use a Binomial
Distribution
Back in 2010 Dr Frost was on holiday in
Hawaii and visited the family of a friend.
They noticed at the dinner table that
out of the 8 people there, 6 were
left-handed (including Dr Frost).
One of them commented, “The chances
of that must be very low”.
“CHALLENGE ACCEPTED”. There are a fixed number
of ‘trials’. A trial represents
each individual outcome, in
this case each individual
We are person’s ‘handedness’.
interested in
how many
Each trial has only two outcomes
trials were
(hence the ‘bi’), ‘success’ or ‘failure’.
successful, i.e.
Here ‘success’ is ‘left-handed’, i.e.
how many left-
the thing we’re counting.
handed people.
Binomial or Not Binomial?
1
The probability that any given student No Yes
is late to school is . I’m interested in
knowing out of the students attending There’s a fixed number of trials
( students) and each trial has two
the school, at least will be late today. outcomes (late or not late).

2
I throw a fair dice times. I want to No Yes
know the probability I get sixes, fives
and ones. There’s a fixed number of trials
( throws) but each trial has outcomes,
not .
3
Customers enter my shop at an No Yes
average rate of a minute. I want to
know the probability that in the There’s not a fixed number of trials
(there’s no limit on the number of
minutes, I get no customers. customers) and no clear ‘success’ or
‘failure’ here.

4
An Olympic archer hits the bullseye of a No Yes
target with probability. Out of allowed
shots, what’s the probability that hit Fixed number of trials (8
shots), and two outcomes on
the bullseye? each trial (bullseye or not
bullseye)
Example
There is a table of people. Binomial distribution
Given the probability of any Parameters is number of trials
given person being left-handed is probability of
is , determine the probability success
that: Outcomes is number of
a successes
b exactly people are left-
handed Probability
exactly people are left- function
handed
a Let be the number of people who are left-
handed. It’s helpful to define in
words what our random
variable is
representing.
to 3sf Write the distribution
of .
because there are
b to 3sf trials (8 people)
is the probability that
each person is left-
handed.
Just substitute into
the formula above.
We can either write
or as shorthand.
Fill in the Gaps
a The probability of throwing b It rains on any given day
a Heads on a biased coin is with probability . What’s
. What’s the probability in the probability it rains for
throws that I see Heads? days next week?

Let be… Let be…

the number of times the the number of days it rains
coin lands on?heads. next week. ?

𝑛=𝟏𝟎 𝑛 =𝟕
? ?
? ?

? ?

? ?

? ? ? ? ? ?
? ? ? ? ? ?
? ?
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/ 639a
s/
639c

3 At a restaurant, an average of out of every

customers order salmon for the main course.
A random sample of customers is selected.

a State a suitable distribution to model the number

of customers that will choose salmon, .
b Find the probability that exactly people order
salmon.
a
?

b
3sf ?
Link Between Binomial Expansion &
Distributions

Expand
3 𝟑 𝟐 𝟐 𝟑
( 𝑝 +𝑞 ) =𝒒 +𝟑 𝒑 𝒒 +𝟑
? 𝒑 𝒒 +𝒑
Probabilities of ?

? ? ? ?

What do you
notice?
If we let be the probability of ‘failure’ on
each trial, i.e. , then the probabilities in a
?
Binomial distribution are the same as the
terms of the expansion of .
Link Between Binomial Expansion &
Distributions
𝟑 𝟑 𝟐 𝟐 𝟑
( 𝒑 + 𝒒 ) =𝒒 +𝟑 𝒑 𝒒 +𝟑 𝒑 𝒒+ 𝒑

If , then , so the left-

hand-side of this
equation is .
The right-hand-side is the sum of
the probabilities of the binomial
distribution . We know that all the
probabilities of a discrete random
variable should sum to , so the
binomial expansion gives us
a nice proof that the
probabilities do indeed sum
to !
Link Between Binomial Expansion &
Distributions
Deeper Thinking: Why do the binomial
distribution and binomial expansion
have this link?
2 When expanding , each term in the
𝑝 𝑞 expansion involves a choice of or from
each of the brackets, and multiplying
( 𝑝 +𝑞 )( 𝑝 +𝑞 )( 𝑝 +𝑞 ) them together. The coefficient of for
example would be the number of ways of
choosing a from two of the brackets and a
from the other.

Trial Trial Trial Similarly with a binomial distribution, each

1 2 3 trial is a choice between a ‘success’ and
a ‘failure’.
   For ‘ successes’, we initially calculate the
probability by multiplying the
× × × probabilities of success, success, failure
together. We then consider all the ways we
could have chosen two successes and a
A bracket therefore represents a trial, and from
failure a choice
eachoftrial.
and from
each bracket as success vs failure in the binomial distribution,
with the multiplying of terms vs probabilities completing the
parallel.
Using Your Calculator Directly
The probability of throwing a Heads on
a biased coin is . What’s the probability
in throws that I see Heads?

These are instructions

for the Casio fx-
Use the arrows and Choose Binomial PD
570/991CW 1 2
OK to select (=Probability Distribution). We
Distribution. will use CD later. Choose
Variable (List allows you to get
multiple probabilities at once).

Enter your values, Read off the value. Note that if

3 4
pressing EXE after each you return to Calculate mode,
value and EXE again at this probability will be stored
the end. as ANS.
Using Your Calculator Directly
The probability of throwing a Heads on
a biased coin is . What’s the probability
in throws that I see Heads?
These are
instructions for the
Casio fx-CG50 Choose Binomial.
1 Choose 2
DISTRIBUTION.

For Tail, choose the Execute, and read off

3 4
fourth option (F4). Enter the probability .
the values as shown.
Assumptions with Binomial Distributions
Back in 2010 Dr Frost was on holiday in
Hawaii and visited the family of a friend.
They noticed at the dinner table that
out of the 8 people there, 6 were
left-handed (including Dr Frost).
One of them commented, “The chances
of that must be very low”.
“CHALLENGE ACCEPTED”.
! We can model a random variable with a binomial distribution if
• there are a fixed number of trials, ,
• there are two possible outcomes: ‘success’ and ‘failure’, These two are
• there is a fixed probability of success, implied by the
• the trials are independent of each other information in
the question,
… so are true.
There’s indeed
But these two are assumptions. Why do you a fixed number
think the latter may have been violated in this of people, and
scenario? each person is
Left-handededness is partly genetic, and left-handed or
many of the 8 people were ? related. not.
Therefore, it would be wrong to assume each
person being left-handed is independent of
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/
s/
639e

4 [Edexcel S2 June 2018 Q2a] 5 [OCR AS June 2018 P1 Q11i]

A fair coin is spun times and The probability that Janice sees a
the random kingfisher on any particular day is .
variable represents the She notes the number, , of days in
number of tails obtained. a week on which she sees a
Give two reasons why a kingfisher.
binomial model would be a State one necessary condition
suitable distribution for for to have a binomial distribution.
modelling . (1 mark)
(2 marks)
Two of: One of:
1. The probability of seeing
1. Only outcomes, a kingfisher is
? the same
Heads and Tails. each day or
2. Constant probability 2. Seeing a kingfisher on
?
of spinning a one day is independent of
Head/Tail oe. the otherDon’t
days.use ‘fixed number of
3. Coin is spun a fixed trials’ or ‘two outcomes per
number of times. To get the marks,
trial’, because this
4. Each spin of the coin information is already given
these must be in
in the question.
is independent. context. Not
‘Events are
independent’.
Cumulative Binomial Probability

𝑝(𝑥)
𝑋 𝐵 ( 8 ,0.1 )
𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤ 3 ) =?

𝑥
01234 5678
We might want to calculate the running total of the
probability up to a certain number of successes.
is known as a cumulative probability function
(CF on calculators).

There is no easy way to calculate this directly

other than adding the probabilities of each outcome:
Calculating Cumulative Probabilities
Given that , calculate

These are instructions

for the Casio fx-
Use the arrows and Choose Binomial CD
570/991CW 1 2
OK to select (=Cumulative Distribution).
Distribution. Choose Variable (List allows
you to get multiple
probabilities at once).

Enter your values, Read off the value.

3 4
pressing EXE after each
value and EXE again at
the end.
Calculating Cumulative Probabilities
Given that , calculate

These are
instructions for the
Casio fx-CG50 Choose Choose Binomial.
1 2
DISTRIBUTION.

For Tail, choose the first Execute, and read off the
3 4
option (F1). Enter the probability. Notice how all the
values as shown. 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 bars are
highlighted.
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/
s/
639f 639g

6 A random variable has the distribution .

Find

sf ?

7 There is a chance it rains on any given day.

Determine the probability that in the next
week, it rains on at most days.
This is another
way of saying or
fewer.

𝑋 𝐵 (?7 , 0.2 )
Probabilities of More General Ranges

Given that , calculate: Note: On calculators like the fx-CG50, you can
calculate these directly using the appropriate
‘Tail’ option. However, you do need to
understand how to manipulate probabilities like
this.

We need ) to use our calculator.

The opposite
a of “at least ”
is “at most ”.
≤ 5≥ 6

sf 23 45678
b ≤2 ≤6

We initially want
everything up to ,
but need to get rid
23 45678
of everything up to
sf in order to leave to .
Quickfire Questions

Write the following probability ranges in

terms of only.

a ?
b ?
c ?
d ?
e ?
f ?
g ?
h ?
i ?
j ?
Test Your Understandingdrfrost.org/
s/
639f 639g 639h

8 [Edexcel A2 June 2018 P3 Q3b]

In an experiment a group of children each repeatedly
throw a dart at a target.
For each child, the random variable represents the
number of times the dart hits the target in the first
throws.
Peta models as .
Using Peta’s model, find .
(1 mark)

𝑃 ( 𝐻≥ 4 )=1−𝑃 ( 𝐻≤3 )
?

9 A random variable has 𝑃 ( 62<𝑌 <68 ) =𝑃 ( 𝑌 ≤ 67 ) − 𝑃 (𝑌 ≤ 62)

the distribution
Find
?
∴ 𝑃 ( 62< 𝑌 < 68 ) =0.8871 −0.5123
¿ 𝟎 . 𝟑𝟕𝟓
Further Test Your Understanding
drfrost.org/
s/
639f 639g

10 [OCR Additional Maths June 2017 Q8] In this particular exam

Four ordinary six-sided dice are rolled. specification, you
would not be allowed
Find the probability that at least sixes
to use your
are obtained. calculator’s
(6 marks) Distribution mode.

𝑃 ( 𝑋≥2)=1−𝑃 ( 𝑋=0) −𝑃 ( 𝑋=1)

?
Example Test Your
Understanding
We can use the probability from 11 The probability that a player
a binomial distribution as the in hits a target is .
another binomial distribution. The player takes shots.
a.
a Find the probability that the
A salesman meets his target each player hits the target at least
day if out of the clients he meets, times.
at least buy the product. The The player shoots sets of
probability of success with each shots.
client is . b.
b Find the probability that the
In a week, what’s the probability player hits the target at least
he meets his target on of them? times in of the sets.
Let be number of clients who
buy product in a day. First calculate the
probability of
meeting target in a
given day.
We now have
¿0.904085 …
probability of ?
Let be the number of days he‘success’ in sf
one day, so
meets his target. feed this into
a new
distribution
considering drfrost.org/ 639i
sf the whole
s/
Further Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/
s/
639i

12 [OCR AS June 2018 P1 Q11iii]

The probability that Janice sees a kingfisher on any particular day
is .
She notes the number, , of days in a week on which she sees a
kingfisher.
Assume that has a binomial distribution.
Each week Janice notes the number of days on which she sees a
kingfisher.
Find the probability that Janice sees a kingfisher on exactly days in
a week during at least of randomly chosen weeks.
(3 marks)

?
Example Test Your
Understanding
We can use the 13 The probability of it raining on
probability of a range to any day is fixed. Given the
determine . probability it rains at least
In an archery competition once this week is , determine
where shots are taken, the the probability it rains on a
probability of an entrant given day.
hitting the target at least once
is . sf
Determine the probability she ?
is successful on each shot.
Recall that if there
are successes, then
we have ‘failed’
(with probability )
times.

drfrost.org/ 639j
s/
Harder Version drfrost.org/
s/
639l

We can use the probability found in this same

way to determine an unknown in a probability
function.
14 [Edexcel S2 June 2014 Q4b] Using the same
technique, determine
A cadet fires shots at a target the probability of being
at distances ranging from m to successful on a given
m. The probability of hitting shot.
the target with a single shot is .
When firing from a

=
distance m,

Each shot is fired ?

independently. The cadet
firesshots from a distance
of m.
Find, to the nearest integer, the
Substitute this probability into
value of if the cadet has an
the given formula used to
chance of hitting the target at determine the probability on a
least once. shot, to find the distance fired
(4 marks) from.
Example Test Your
Understanding
We can similarly use the 15 The probability of it raining on
probability of a range to any day is . What is the
determine . minimum number of days
The probability a student is late to
such that the probability it
school each day is . If the
rains on at least one of those
probability that the student is late
days is greater than ?
to school at least once in days is
greater than , determine the
smallest value of .
𝑋 𝐵 ( 𝑛 , 0.1 Write an)inequality
Minimum of 13 days.
𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≥ 1 ) >0.6 to represent the
information.
1 − 𝑃 ( 𝑋 =0 )> 0.6
As the variable is
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =0 )< 0.4 the index of a ?
𝑛 power, log both
0.9 <0.4 sides.
𝑛
log 0.9 < log 0.4 Beware: since is negative
𝑛 log 0.9< log 0.4 (as ), dividing by a negative
number reverses the
log 0.4
direction of the inequality.
𝑛>
log 0.9
𝑛> 8.697 …
drfrost.org/ 639k
The smallest value of s/
Probability That Yields a Given Range

At Camford University, students have exams at the end of the year.

All students pass each individual exam with probability . Students are
only allowed to continue into the next year if they pass some
minimum of exams out of the .
What do the university administrators set this minimum number such
that the probability of continuing to next year is at least ?

Let be the number of exams passed. Some

calculators
Let be the minimum number of allow you to list
exams that must be passed. multiple
Binomial
probabilities.

In this table, is
less than but is
too big.
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/
s/
639m

16 [Edexcel S2 June 2012 Q8b]

In a large restaurant an average of out of every
customers ask for water with their meal.
A random sample of customers is selected.
Find the smallest value of such that

where the random variable represents the number

of these customers who ask for water.
(3 marks)

?
Example Test Your
Understanding
We can problem solve by 17 [CCEA AS June 2019 P2 Stats
comparing binomial probabilities Q8(ii)]
to determine an unknown. A school sports club has
members. The probability of any
Let member, chosen at random,
Given that , determine the being injured throughout the year
value of . is .
Let be the random variable "the
number of members injured
throughout the school year".
It is known that
Find the value of .
(3 marks)

drfrost.org/ 639n
s/
Looking Ahead : Other ‘Off-the-Shelf’
Distributions
Binomial Skill 840
Poisson
𝐵(𝑛, 𝑝 ) 𝑃𝑜 ( 𝜆 )
A probability distribution over A probability distribution over
the number of ‘successes’ the number of events that
out of trials, given a occurred in a time interval,
probability of each success. given an average rate at which
they occur.

e.g. “What’s the probability that a

e.g. “What’s the probability particular TikTok video gets views
of getting Heads on throws in the next day, given on average
of a coin, given a probability it gets views each day?”
of each Heads?”

Skills 640-

Geometric
643 Skill 843
Normal
𝑁 ( 𝜇, 𝜎 2 ) 𝐺𝑒𝑜 (𝑝)
A probability distribution over
Models continuous variables the number of trials required
whose distributions are before the first ‘success’,
symmetrical in shape with given a probability of success.
the probability tailing off
around a mean , e.g.
measurement errors, heights e.g. “What’s the probability
of people in a population, etc. of having to flip a fair coin
times until I first see a
Head?”