Machine Learning-based

Weather Prediction: A
Comparative Study of
Regression and
Classification Algorithms
By Shaik Zubair, Mohammed
Zahid Ullah,Parvez Ahmed.
Justification of Project Title:
"Machine Learning-based
Weather Prediction: A
Comparative Study of
Regression and
Classification Algorithms"
Why Machine Learning for
Weather Prediction?
Weather Impacts Our Lives

★ Agriculture 🌾: Weather forecasts help farmers plan planting, harvesting, and crop
management.
★ Aviation ✈️: Accurate weather forecasts ensure safe takeoffs, landings, and flight
routes.
★ Daily Life 🏠: Weather forecasts help us plan our daily activities, from commuting to
outdoor events.
Traditional Methods Have Limits

★ Limited Data: Traditional weather forecasting methods rely on limited data and
simple models, leading to inaccuracies.

★ These limitations can cause inaccuracies for specific weather events and struggle with
massive datasets from modern sensors.
Machine Learning Can Learn Complex Patterns for More Accurate
Forecasts!

★ ML can improve weather prediction accuracy, leading to better decisions in agriculture,

travel, and disaster planning.
★ Unlocking Hidden Patterns: It learns from vast weather data, revealing hidden patterns
for better forecasts.

Combining Regression and Classification for Weather Prediction

● Regression: Suitable for continuous weather variables like temperature, humidity, and
wind speed
● Classification: Suitable for categorical weather variables like rain/no rain, sunny/cloudy, or
storm/no storm
Boosting for Enhanced Accuracy

● XGBoost: A popular gradient boosting algorithm that can improve weather prediction
accuracy
● AdaBoost: A boosting algorithm that can be used to boost the performance of decision
trees on binary classification problems
● Key benefits:
● Can significantly improve weather prediction accuracy
● Can handle complex patterns and relationships in the data
● Can be used to combine multiple models for better performance
Objective and Scope of the
Project
 I. Objectives

★ Evaluate Machine Learning for Weather Prediction

★ Data Acquisition and Preprocessing

★ Machine Learning Model Development

★ Model Performance Evaluation

★ Comparative Study of Algorithms

★ Analysis and Insights

 II. Scope
Feasibility & Effectiveness
○ Machine learning can identify complex weather patterns in vast datasets.
○ Exploring ML for improved prediction accuracy

Data-Centric Approach
○ Focus on Collecting & Preprocessing Historical Weather Data
○ Building ML Models for Informed Forecasts

Performance Evaluation
○ Evaluate the performance of the developed models using appropriate
metrics.
○ Compare regression and classification approaches to identify the most
suitable one for specific weather variables.

Unveiling Insights and Future Directions

○ Understanding model strengths and weaknesses
○ Analyze the results to gain insights into the strengths and limitations of the
Explanation of the
Identified Problem
 The Challenge: Why We Need Better Weather Prediction

Why It Matters? Limitations of Traditional Methods

● Limited accuracy, especially for localized

● Impacts agriculture, transportation, disaster events.Forecasts may not capture localized
management, and more. variations or rapid weather changes.
● Time-consuming calculations & data
processing.
● High Computational Complexity and
● Accurate forecasts = better decisions = Sensitivity: Processing large datasets is
economic well-being & public safety. resource-intensive, and small errors in initial
data can lead to significant forecast
inaccuracies.
 When Predictions Go Wrong: The Impact of Need for a New Approach: Machine
Inaccurate Forecasts Learning as a Solution

● An advanced system is needed to improve

accuracy, handle changing patterns, and
provide real-time predictions.
● Reduced agricultural productivity (e.g.,
crop loss due to unexpected frost)
● Disruptions in transportation (e.g., flight ● This project explores how machine learning
cancellations, road closures) can leverage historical data to offer more
● Compromised disaster preparedness (e.g., precise and adaptable weather forecasts.
delayed evacuations)
Basic Concepts Related to Project
I. Machine Learning (ML)
❏ What is it? A branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI) that allows computers to learn from data
without explicit programming. (Optional: Briefly define AI if needed)
❏ Key Idea: ML algorithms improve performance over time by analyzing data and identifying
patterns.
❏ Examples: Techniques like Regression, Classification, and Neural Networks can be used for
various tasks. (Choose relevant examples for your project)

II. Weather Prediction

❏ The Goal: Forecasting future weather conditions based on scientific analysis of past and current
data.
❏ Traditional Methods: Relies on complex meteorological models and simulations.
❏ What is Predicted: Weather variables like temperature, precipitation, wind speed, etc.

III. Data for Machine Learning

❏ Fuel for the Models: High-quality historical weather data is essential for training ML models for
prediction.
❏ Data Sources: Weather stations, satellites, and other monitoring systems can provide valuable data.
❏ Data Preparation: Cleaning, normalization, and feature engineering might be needed to prepare
the data for modeling.
IV. Machine Learning Algorithms for This Project

❏ Two Main Types

❏ Regression: Suitable for predicting continuous weather variables (e.g., temperature).
❏ Classification: Effective for predicting categorical weather variables (like rain/no rain).

❏ Project Focus: Comparing the performance of these algorithms in terms of:

❏ Accuracy: How well do the models predict weather conditions?
❏ Efficiency: How fast do the models train and make predictions?
❏ Robustness: How well do the models handle unseen data or variations?
 Literature Review: Summary of Relevant Research
Reference Focus Challenges Relevance to our Project

1. Villarreal Guerra et al. New dataset (RFS) for weather Diverse weather & unclear Offers new dataset and data
(2023) classification (rain, snow, fog) features augmentation for CNNs
using CNNs

2. Tiwari et al. (2023) Classifying robot swarm Limited data availability Highlights importance of data
(Machine Learning for behaviors (flocking vs. non- for machine learning models
Complex Systems) flocking)

3. Tiwari et al. (2023) Evaluating boosting algorithms Ensemble methods (like

(Ensemble Learning (AdaBoost) for classification boosting) could improve
Techniques) weather prediction accuracy

4. Wang & Sun (2023) Improving AdaBoost for Techniques to address

imbalanced data classification imbalanced class distributions
(e.g., fewer extreme weather
events)
Methodology and Proposed
Approach for Advanced
Weather Prediction
 I. Research Methodology
Data Acquisition & Preparation
● Collected comprehensive weather data (temperature, precipitation, etc.).
● Preprocessed data: scaled features, addressed class imbalance with SMOTE.

Feature Selection
● Selected key features: precipitation, temperature (max & min), wind.

Algorithm Selection
● Evaluated ML algorithms:
○ Boosting (AdaBoost, XGBoost) for complex patterns.
○ Traditional (Decision Trees, Random Forests) for comparison.

Data Splitting for Training & Evaluation

● Used 10-fold cross-validation for robust testing.

Model Training
● Applied stratified k-fold cross-validation for thorough training.
 I. Research Methodology

Model Evaluation
● Assessed models with accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and AUC-ROC.

Further Analysis
● Conducted additional analyses (ROC curve analysis, lift curve analysis) to gain deeper insights
into algorithm performance under varying weather conditions. This helps refine and optimize the
models..
 II. Proposed Weather Prediction System:
Objective: Revolutionize forecasting accuracy and reliability through advanced machine learning and
data integration.

Key Features:
● Integration of Machine Learning: Leverages regression and classification algorithms to predict
diverse weather parameters (temperature, precipitation, wind speed, etc.).

● Predicts Various Meteorological Parameters: Provides comprehensive forecasts beyond just

rain/no rain.

● Diverse Data Sources: Utilizes historical data, satellite imagery, IoT sensor data, and crowd-
sourced observations for more precise predictions.

● User-Friendly Interfaces: Designed for accessibility with clear and intuitive interfaces for easy
forecast interpretation.

● Transparency: Provides users with information on data sources, algorithms used, and
methodologies, fostering trust in the predictions.
 II. Proposed Weather Prediction System:

Overall Approach:

This project proposes a novel weather prediction system that addresses limitations of traditional
methods by:

● Applying powerful machine learning algorithms to analyze complex weather data.

● Integrating a rich variety of data sources for more comprehensive forecasts.
● Emphasizing user-friendliness and transparency in the system design.

By employing this innovative approach, the proposed system has the potential to significantly improve
weather prediction accuracy and reliability, benefiting sectors like agriculture, transportation, and
disaster management.
 Algorithms Used to
Overcome the Specific
Problem
 Algorithms Used to Overcome the Specific Problem
Current Limitations:
● Traditional methods struggle with limited accuracy for complex patterns and handling large
datasets.
● Machine Learning Solution: ML improves forecast accuracy by learning from data.

Chosen Machine Learning Algorithms

● Random Forest: Combines multiple decision trees for better accuracy and handles complex
weather variable relationships.
● AdaBoost: Focuses on less frequent events, useful for imbalanced weather data.
● XGBoost: Highly accurate and efficient for large datasets, suitable for both regression and
classification tasks.
● CatBoost: Designed for categorical features (e.g., sunny, rainy), achieving high accuracy and
handling imbalanced datasets.

Addressing Limitations with ML Algorithms

● Random Forest & XGBoost: Effective for complex relationships and large datasets, ideal for
intricate weather patterns.
● AdaBoost: Valuable for imbalanced data (e.g., rare extreme weather events).
● CatBoost: Improves accuracy by effectively handling categorical weather data.
 Algorithms Used to Overcome the Specific Problem

Evaluation Metrics
● Accuracy: Measures overall correctness.
● Precision: Ratio of true positives to predicted positives.
● Recall: Ratio of true positives to actual positives.
● F1-Score: Harmonic mean of precision and recall.

Conclusion
● By exploring these diverse machine learning algorithms, we aim to:
○ Enhance weather prediction accuracy by leveraging their strengths in handling complex
weather patterns, potentially imbalanced data, and categorical features.
○ Identify the most suitable algorithm (or combination) for our specific project goals.
Data Collection
1. Weather Data Source:
● This project leverages a weather dataset from Kaggle, a reputable platform for sharing and
exploring machine learning datasets.
2. Dataset Description:
● The dataset contains various weather variables relevant to our prediction task:
○ Precipitation amount
○ Maximum and minimum daily temperatures
○ Wind speed
○ Categorical weather conditions (e.g., drizzle, rain, snow, sun)

3. Justification for Using Kaggle Dataset:

● Kaggle provides a rich collection of well-maintained datasets, ensuring data quality and reliability.
● This specific dataset aligns perfectly with our project's needs by offering essential weather
variables for accurate prediction.

4. Conclusion:
● We have acquired a comprehensive weather dataset from Kaggle, eliminating the need for
extensive data cleaning or preparation.
● This well-structured data serves as a solid foundation for our weather prediction project.
OverAll Experimental Setup for Weather Prediction
1. Development Environment:
● Primary development used Visual Studio Code (Vscode) for its user-friendly
interface and features.

2. Web Application Framework:

● Django, a high-level Python framework, provided a robust foundation for building
the web application.

3. Admin & User Functionalities:

● Admins can customize features, monitor performance, and manage user
authentication.
● Registered users can view data, access training results, and make weather
predictions.
Result Analysis
 Code Implementation
1. dataset(request):
def dataset(request):
filepath = settings.MEDIA_ROOT+"\\"+'seattle-weather.csv'
import pandas as pd
df = pd.read_csv(filepath,nrows=100)
df = df.to_html
return render(request,'users/datasset.html',{'data':df})

2. training(request):
def training(request):
from .utility import module
rf_report = module.training()
xgb_report = module.training_xgboost()

adaboost_report = module.training_adaboost()
nb_catboost = module.training_catboost()
gradiantboost_report = module.training_gradiantboost()
return render(request,'users/Training.html',{'rf': rf_report,"xgb":xgb_report, 'ada':
adaboost_report,'cat':nb_catboost,'gradient':gradiantboost_report})
 Code Implementation
3. Predication(request):

def Prediction(request):

if request.method == "POST":
import pandas as pd
from django.conf import settings
precipitation = request.POST.get("precipitation")
temp_max = request.POST.get("temp_max")
temp_min = request.POST.get("temp_min")
wind = request.POST.get("wind")
test_set = [precipitation,temp_max,temp_min,wind]
print(test_set)
from .utility import module
ot = module.prediction(test_set)
print(ot)
if(ot==0):
res = "Drizzle"
elif(ot==1):
res = "Fog"
elif(ot==2):
res = "Rain"
 Code Implementation

elif(ot==3):
res = "snow"
else:
res = "Sun"
return render(request,'users/Predication.html',{'raesult':res})
else:
return render(request,'users/Predication.html',{})
 Code Implementation For Algorithms
Random Forest:

def training():

from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix, accuracy_score,classification_report

from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier

clf = RandomForestClassifier(random_state = 0)

clf.fit(X_train, y_train)

y_pred_knn = clf.predict(X_test)

accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred_knn)

print("Classification Accuracy:", accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred_knn))

print("Classification Report\n")

nb_cr = classification_report(y_test, y_pred_knn,output_dict=True)

 Code Implementation For Algorithms
Random Forest:

print(classification_report(y_test, y_pred_knn))

print("Confusion Matrix\n")

print(confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred_knn))

cm = confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred_knn)

nb_cr = pd.DataFrame(nb_cr).transpose()

nb_rf = pd.DataFrame(nb_cr)

return nb_rf.to_html
 Code Implementation For Algorithms
XGBoost:

def training_xgboost():

from xgboost import XGBClassifier

from sklearn.multiclass import OneVsRestClassifier

from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier

from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix, accuracy_score,classification_report

clf = XGBClassifier()

clf.fit(X_train, y_train)

y_pred_knn = clf.predict(X_test)

accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred_knn)

print("Classification Accuracy:", accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred_knn))

 Code Implementation For Algorithms
XGBoost:

print("Classification Report\n")

nb_cr = classification_report(y_test, y_pred_knn,output_dict=True)

print(classification_report(y_test, y_pred_knn))

print("Confusion Matrix\n")

print(confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred_knn))

cm = confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred_knn)

nb_cr = pd.DataFrame(nb_cr).transpose()

nb_xg = pd.DataFrame(nb_cr)

return nb_cr.to_html
 Code Implementation For Algorithms
AdaBoost:
def training_adaboost():

from sklearn.ensemble import AdaBoostClassifier

from sklearn.multiclass import OneVsRestClassifier

from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier

from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix, accuracy_score,classification_report

clf = AdaBoostClassifier()

clf.fit(X_train, y_train)

y_pred_knn = clf.predict(X_test)

accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred_knn)

print("Classification Accuracy:", accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred_knn))

print("Classification Report\n")
 Code Implementation For Algorithms
AdaBoost:

nb_cr = classification_report(y_test, y_pred_knn,output_dict=True)

print(classification_report(y_test, y_pred_knn))

print("Confusion Matrix\n")

print(confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred_knn))

cm = confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred_knn)

nb_cr = pd.DataFrame(nb_cr).transpose()

nb_ada = pd.DataFrame(nb_cr)

return nb_ada.to_html
 Code Implementation For Algorithms
CatBoost:

def training_catboost():

from catboost import CatBoostClassifier

from sklearn.multiclass import OneVsRestClassifier

from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier

from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix, accuracy_score,classification_report

clf = CatBoostClassifier()

clf.fit(X_train, y_train)

y_pred_knn = clf.predict(X_test)

accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred_knn)

print("Classification Accuracy:", accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred_knn))

 Code Implementation For Algorithms
CatBoost:

print("Classification Report\n")

nb_cr = classification_report(y_test, y_pred_knn,output_dict=True)

print(classification_report(y_test, y_pred_knn))

print("Confusion Matrix\n")

print(confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred_knn))

cm = confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred_knn)

nb_cr = pd.DataFrame(nb_cr).transpose()

nb_cat = pd.DataFrame(nb_cr)

return nb_cat.to_html
 Conclusion
● Machine Learning for Weather Prediction: Explored various machine learning

algorithms for weather forecasting.

● Top Performers: XGBoost and AdaBoost achieved the highest accuracies (>87%).

● Validation Confirmed: Lift curve and ROC analysis support these findings.

● Impact on Real-World Applications: Improved weather forecasts benefit agriculture,

transportation, emergency services, and more.

● Machine Learning's Potential: XGBoost and AdaBoost demonstrate the power of

machine learning in weather prediction.

● Future Exploration: Further research needed to explore algorithm performance on

varied datasets and identify new factors for enhanced accuracy.

 Future Enhancements
● AI and Deep Learning:
○ Utilize RNNs and transformers for capturing complex weather patterns.

○ Improve prediction accuracy for diverse weather events, including extreme ones.

● Real-time Data Integration:

○ Incorporate satellite and remote sensing data for better monitoring and climate

change prediction.

○ Create comprehensive weather models with a wider view of atmospheric dynamics.

● Quantum Computing (Long-term):

○ Leverage quantum computing for high-resolution, long-term weather simulations.

○ Gain deeper understanding of atmospheric behavior for more reliable forecasts.

 References
1. Villarreal Guerra, J. C., Khanam, Z., Ehsan, S., Stolkin, R., & McDonald-Maier, K. (2018).
Weather Classification: A new multi-class dataset, data augmentation approach and
comprehensive evaluations of Convolutional Neural Networks. In 2018 NASA/ESA
Conference on Adaptive Hardware and Systems, AHS 2018 (pp. 305–310). doi:
10.1109/AHS.2018.8541482.

2. Tiwari, R. G., Yadav, S. K., Misra, A., & Sharma, A. (2023). Classification of Swarm
Collective Motion Using Machine Learning. Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies,
316, 173–181. doi: 10.1007/978-981-19-5403-0_14/COVER.

3. Tiwari, R. G., Agarwal, A. K., Jindal, R. K., & Singh, A. (2022). Experimental Evaluation of
Boosting Algorithms for Fuel Flame Extinguishment with Acoustic Wave. In 2022
International Conference on Innovation and Intelligence for Informatics, Computing, and
Technologies (3ICT) (pp. 413–418). doi: 10.1109/3ICT56508.2022.9990779.

4. Wang, W., & Sun, D. (2021). The improved AdaBoost algorithms for imbalanced data
classification. Information Sciences, 563, 358–374. doi: 10.1016/J.INS.2021.03.042.
 References
5. Bahad, P., & Saxena, P. (2020). Study of AdaBoost and Gradient Boosting Algorithms for
Predictive Analytics (pp. 235–244). doi: 10.1007/978-981-15-0633-8_22.

6. Mitchell, R., Adinets, A., Rao, T., & Frank, E. (2018). XGBoost: Scalable GPU Accelerated
Learning. doi: 10.48550/arxiv.1806.11248.

7. Gautam, V., et al. (2022). A Transfer Learning-Based Artificial Intelligence Model for Leaf
Disease Assessment. Sustainability, 14(20), 13610. doi: 10.3390/SU142013610.

8. Al-Haija, Q. A., Smadi, M. A., & Zein-Sabatto, S. (2020). Multi-Class Weather

Classification Using ResNet-18 CNN for Autonomous IoT and CPS Applications. In
Proceedings - 2020 International Conference on Computational Science and Computational
Intelligence, CSCI 2020 (pp. 1586–1591). doi: 10.1109/CSCI51800.2020.00293.

9. Scher, S., & Messori, G. (2018). Predicting weather forecast uncertainty with machine
learning. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144(717), 2830–2841. doi:
10.1002/QJ.3410.
 References
10. Markovics, D., & Mayer, M. J. (2022). Comparison of machine learning methods for
photovoltaic power forecasting based on numerical weather prediction. Renewable and
Sustainable Energy Reviews, 161, 112364. doi: 10.1016/J.RSER.2022.112364.
THANK YOU