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Causal Loop Diagrams

Cause loop

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10 views

Causal Loop Diagrams

Cause loop

Uploaded by

singh.vikram23
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Causal Loop Diagrams

August 2023
What is Cause and Effect Analysis

• Cause and Effect Analysis is a technique for identifying all the possible
causes (inputs) associated with a particular problem / effect (output)
before narrowing down to the small number of main, root causes which
need to be addressed.

• Cause and Effect Analysis is a valuable tool for:

– Focusing on causes not symptoms capturing the


collective knowledge and experience of a group
– Providing a picture of why an effect is happening
– Establishing a sound basis for further data
gathering and action
– Cause and Effect Analysis can also be used to
identify all of the areas that need to be tackled to
generate a positive effect.
What is a Cause and Effect Diagram

• A Cause and Effect diagram (also known as a Fishbone or Ishikawa


diagram) graphically illustrates the results of the analysis and is
constructed in steps. Cause and Effect Analysis is usually carried out by a
group who all have experience and knowledge of the cause to be
analyzed.
• Cause-and-Effect diagrams graphically display potential
causes of a problem
The layout shows Cause-and-Effect relationships between
the potential causes
Why use a Cause and Effect Diagram

• It is common for people working on improvement efforts to jump to


conclusions without studying the causes, target one possible cause while
ignoring others, and take actions aimed at surface symptoms

• Cause-and-effect diagrams are designed to:


– Stimulating thinking during a brainstorm of potential causes
– Providing a structure to understand the relationships between many
possible causes of a problem
– Giving people a framework for planning what data to collect
– Serving as a visual display of causes that have been studied
– Helping team members communicate within the team and with the
rest of the organization
How do we make it

1. Identify the Problem/Issue


– Select a particular problem, issue or effect.
– Make sure the problem is specific, tightly defined
and relatively small in scope and that everyone
participating understands exactly what is being
analyzed.
– Write the problem definition at the top of the flip
chart or whiteboard.
How do we make it contd.

• Brainstorm
– Conduct a Brainstorm of all the possible causes of the effect, i.e., problem.
• Have a mixed team from different parts of the process (e.g., assemblers and
testers).
• Get a “fresh pair of eyes” - from someone who is not too close to the process.
• Have a facilitator - an impartial referee.
• Everyone is an equal contributor (“leave stripes at the
door”).
• Fast and furious - go for quantity rather than quality (of ideas) at first.
• Involve everyone, or question why he/she is here.
• Timing - set an upper limit and best time/day of the week.
• Offer an incentive (free lunch?).
• Know when to stop.
• Recognize that this is a snapshot of how the group thinks today.
• Re-visit the problem again.
• Refer also to the Process Mapping tool.
• Consider (how) should you involve your customer?
How do we make it. Contd.

• Brainstorm (continued)
• Write each idea on a Post-It® to make it easy to transfer them onto
the fishbone diagram later. Be careful not to muddle causes and
solutions at this stage.
• It is important to brainstorm before identifying cause categories
otherwise you can constrain the range of ideas. However, if ideas are
slow in coming use questions such as, ‘what about?’, to prompt
thoughts.
How do we make it. Contd.

• Draw fishbone diagram


• Place the effect at the head of the “fish”
• Include the 6 recommended categories shown below

People Method Machine

Problem
or Issue

Material Environment Measurement System


How do we make it. Contd.

• Align Outputs with Cause Categories


– Review your brainstorm outputs and align with the recommended
major cause categories, e.g., the People, Method, Machine,
Material, Environment and Measurement System.
Note:
These may not fit every situation and different major categories might
well be appropriate in some instances, however, the total should not
exceed six. Other categories may include Communications, Policies,
Customer/Supplier Issues etc.

Tip !
The 6 categories recommended will address almost all scenarios. However, there is no
one perfect set of categories. You may need to adapt to suit the issue being analyzed.
How do we make it. Contd.

• Allocate Causes
– Transfer the potential causes from the brainstorm to the diagram,
placing each cause under the appropriate category.
– If causes seem to fit more than one category then it is acceptable to
duplicate them. However, if this happens repeatedly it may be a clue
that the categories are wrong and you should go back to step 4.
– Related causes are plotted as ‘twigs’ on the branches. Branches and
twigs can be further developed by asking questions such as ‘what?’,
‘why?’ ‘how?’, ‘where?’ This avoids using broad statements that may in
themselves be effects. Beware, however, of digging in and getting into
bigger issues that are completely beyond the influence of the team.
How do we make it. Contd.

• Analyze for Root Causes


– Consider which are the most likely root causes of the effect. This can be
done in several ways:
• Through open discussion among participants, sharing views and
experiences. This can be speeded up by using Consensus Decision
Making.
• By looking for repeated causes or number of causes related to a
particular category.
• By data gathering using Check Sheets, Process Maps, or customer
surveys to test relative strengths through Pareto Analysis.
• Once a relatively small number of main causes have been agreed upon,
Paired Comparisons, can be used to narrow down further.
• Some groups find it helpful to consider only those causes they can
influence.
How do we make it. Contd.

• Test for Reality


– Test the most likely causes by, e.g., data gathering and observation if this has
not already been done.
– The diagram can be posted on a wall and added to / modified as further ideas
are generated either by the team or by others who can review the teams'
work.
– Cause and Effect Analysis can be combined with Process Mapping.

– A fishbone may be developed for each discrete activity within the process that
is generating the output / effect so that causes are linked to particular steps in
the process.
Example – Fishbone diagram
Example – Fishbone diagram
Example – Fishbone diagram
Exercise

• Customer orders customised bikes, however


the order is not delivered on time (delay of 4
weeks). Analyse the root causes and ensure
that such incidents do not happen again.
Startng point
People Method Machine

Problem
or Issue

Material Environment Measurement System


Exercise
Causal loop diagrams

• Causal mapping is a powerful tool


for representing structure in
complex systems.

• Arrows indicate causal influence.


Polarities of Causal loop diagrams

• Positive and negative signs show


the direction of causality: – +

+ + –
+ ... “direct” relation
– …“inverse” relation

+
–
Polarities of Causal loop diagrams

A adds to B, or
∆A leads to ∆B in the same
direction

C subtracts from D, or
∆C leads to ∆D in the opposite
direction

All words phrases are expressed as quantities that have a clear sense of
increase or decrease.
No verbs — the action is in the arrows.
Feedback loop diagrams

A feedback loop exists when decisions change the state


of the system, changing the conditions and information
that influence future decisions.
Feedback loop diagrams

A feedback loop exists when decisions change the state


of the system, changing the conditions and information
that influence future decisions.

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