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Lesson 2. Constructing Probability Distributions

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66 views

Lesson 2. Constructing Probability Distributions

Uploaded by

Ashley Nicole Rivera
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lesson 2

Constructing
Probability
Distributions

ALEX C. MANALOTO
Math Instructor
Lesson Objectives

At the end of this lesson, you should be able


to:
 illustrate a probability distribution for a
discrete random variable and its properties;
 compute probabilities corresponding to a
given random variable; and
 construct the probability mass function of
a discrete random variable and its
corresponding histogram.
Probability

It is the chance that an event will happen.


The probability of an event A denoted by P(A)
refers to a number between 0 and 1 including the
values 0 and 1 which can be expressed as a
fraction, decimal or percent.

If P(A) = 0 , then the event is impossible to


happen.
If P(A) = 1 , then the event is sure to happen.
Probability

The probability of an event A can be computed


using the following formula:
Find the probability of the following:
Event (E) Probability P(E)

1. Getting an even number in a single roll


=
of a die
2. Getting a sum of 6 when two dice are
rolled
3. Getting an ace when a card is drawn =
from a deck
4. Getting a sum of 11 when two dice are =
rolled
5. Getting a black card and a 10 when a =
card is drawn from a deck
Find the probability of the following:
Event (E) Probability P(E)

6. Getting doubles when two dice are


=
rolled
7. Getting a red ball from a box containing =
3 red and 6 black balls
8. Getting a face card from a standard =
deck of cards
Discrete Probability Distribution or
Probability Mass Function

A discrete probability distribution or


probability mass function consists of the values a
random variable can assume and the corresponding
probabilities of the values.
Example 1:
“Tossing Three Coins”

Suppose three coins are tossed. Let Y be the


random variable representing the number of tails that
occur. Find the probability of each of the values of the
random variable Y, then draw its corresponding
histogram.
Values of Random Variable Y
Possible Outcomes
(number of tails)

TTT 3

TTH 2

THT 2

HTT 2

HHT 1

HTH 1

THH 1

HHH 0
The Probability Distribution or the Probability Mass
Function of Discrete Random Variable Y

Number of
Tails (Y) 0 1 2 3

Probability 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8


P(Y)
The Histogram for the Probability Distribution of the
Discrete Random Variable Y
Example 2:
“Drawing Balls from an Urn”

Two balls are drawn in succession without


replacement from an urn containing 5 red balls and 6
blue balls. Let Z be the random variable representing
the number of blue balls. Construct the probability
distribution of the random variable Z, then draw its
corresponding histogram.
Values of Random Variable Z
Possible Outcomes
(number of blue balls)

RR 0

RB 1

BR 1

BB 2
The Probability Distribution of Discrete Random
Variable Z

Number of
Blue Balls(Z) 0 1 2

Probability 1/4 1/2 1/4


P(Z)
The Histogram for the Probability Distribution of the
Discrete Random Variable Z
Example 3:
“Defective Cell Phones”

Let D represent the defective cellphones


and N represent the non-defective cellphone.
Suppose three cell phones are tested at
random from a box containing 2 defective and
3 non-defective.

Let X be the random variable for the


number of defective cell phones. Construct
the probability distribution of the random
variable X, then draw its corresponding
histogram.
Values of Random Variable X
Possible Outcomes
(number of defective cell phones)

NNN 0

NND 1

NDN 1

DNN 1

NDD 2

DND 2

DDN 2
The Probability Distribution or the Probability Mass
Function of Discrete Random Variable X

Number of Defective
(X) 0 1 2

Probability
P(X) 1/7 3/7 3/7
The Histogram for the Probability Distribution of the
Discrete Random Variable X
EXAMPLE 4
The daily demand for copies of a book at a variety store has
the probability distribution as follows
Number of Copies (X) Probability P(X)

0 0.16
1 0.14
2 0.12
3 0.18
4 0.15
5 0.18
6 0.02
7 0.05
Answer the following questions:

a. What is the probability that more than five copies will be


demanded in a particular day? Answer: 0.07
b. What is the probability that less than four copies copies will
be demanded in a particular day? Answer: 0.60
c. What is the probability that the demand will be at least
three copies? Answer: 0.58

d. What is the probability that the demand will be at


most five copies? Answer: 0.93
e. What is the probability that the demand will be at
least two but not more than six copies ? Answer: 0.65
Solve for the probabilities of the following:

0.18 P(3)
_____1. 0.07
_____6. P(X > 5)

0.02
_____2. P(6) 0.45
_____7. P(1 < X < 5)

0.42 P(X ≤ 2)
_____3. _____8.
0.58 P(3 ≤ X ≤ 7)

0.25
_____4. P(X ≥ 5) 0.63
_____9. P(1 < X ≤ 5)

0.60
_____5. P(X < 4) 0.20
_____10. P(5 ≤ X < 7)
EXERCISES
A. Determine whether the distribution represents a probability
distribution. Encircle the table which shows a probability distribution.

A 1 5 8 7 9 C 1 2 3 5
P(A) 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/3 P(C) 1/4 1/8 1/4 1/8

B 0 2 4 6 8 D 1 3 5 7
P(B) 1/6 1/6 1/3 1/6 1/6 P(D) 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.12

E 4 8 12 15 17
P(E) 20% 12.5% 12.5% 20% 12.5%
B. Determine whether the given values can serve as the values of a
probability distribution of the random variable X that can take only the
values1, 2, and 3. Write PD if it a probability distribution and NOT if not.

_____1. P(1) = 0.08, P(2) = 0.12, P(3) = 1.03


_____2. P(1) = 10/33, P(2) = 1/3, P(3) = 12/33
_____3. P(1) = 0.42, P(2) = 0.31, P(3) =0.37

_____4. P(1) = 9/14, P(2) = 4/14, P(3) = 1/14


_____5. P(1) = 0, P(2) = 0.71, P(3) = 0.39
C. For each of the following, determine whether it can serve as the
probability distribution of a random variable X. Write PD if yes otherwise write
NPD if not.
D. Construct the probability distribution for the random variables
described in each of the following situations. Draw the corresponding
histogram for each probability distribution.

1. Four coins are tossed. Let Z be the random variable


representing the number of heads that occur.

2. A shipment of five computers contains two defective. A


retailer receives three of these computers at random. Let X
represent the number of computers purchased by the retailer
which are defective.
E. The following data show the probabilities for the number of cars sold
in a given day at a car dealer store.

Number of Cars (X) Probability P(X)

0 0.100
1 0.150
2 0.250
3 0.140
4 0.090
5 0.080
6 0.060
7 0.050
8 0.040
9 0.025
10 0.015
Solve for the probabilities of the following:

_____1. P(5) _____6. P(X > 3)

_____2. P(7) _____7. P(3 < X < 8)

_____3. P(X ≤ 2) _____8. P(5 ≤ X ≤ 9)

_____4. P(X ≥ 7) _____9. P(4 ≤ X < 6)

_____5. P(X < 5) _____10. P(1 < X ≤ 5)

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