MALTHUS THEORY OF

POPULATION AND
GROWTH
Thomas Malthus

o Born: February 14, 1766, Surrey, United Kingdom.

o Died: December 29, 1834, Bath, United Kingdom.
o Wrote ‘An essay in the First Principle of
population’ first published in 1798
o Debatable whether the principles of Malthus two
hundred years ago ( that were very revolutionary
and controversial ) have any relevance to the
modern world.
o The world population in 1798 was at nine million
people. We have now passed the seven billion
mark.
The Core Principles of Malthus

• Food is necessary for human existence.

• Human population tends to grow faster than the power in the
earth to produce subsistence.
• The effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal.
• Since humans tend not to limit their population size voluntarily -
“preventive checks” in Malthus’ terminology.
Theory of Population

• Malthus very concerned by the condition of the poor and

particularly by rural poverty.
• Because of this he was skeptical of notions of the perfectibility of
society.
• 1st Edition of the Essay is an a priori polemic—the 2nd Edition
included much empirical observation.
• Inspired Darwin’s idea of “the struggle for survival” .
Malthus Theory

• In 1798 Thomas Malthus published his views on the effect of

population on food supply. His theory has two basic principles:
• Population grows at a geometric rate i.e. 1, 2, 4, 16, 32, etc.
• Food production increases at an arithmetic rate i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.
Geometric And Arithmetic Ratios

• Population, when unchecked, grows in a geometric ratio.

• Population, if unchecked, will double every 25 years [ a geometric
progression is 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, etc.].
• Evidence from the US where land is abundant.
• Subsistence grows at an arithmetic ratio [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 etc.].
• Subsistence still grows, but due to the different growth ratios
population must eventually press against the means of subsistence.
Malthus Theory
Malthus (cont.)
Proposed Solutions of Malthus

• Malthus suggested that once this ceiling (catastrophe)

had been reached, further growth in population would
be prevented by negative and positive checks. He saw
the checks as a natural method of population.
Negative Checks (Decreased Birth Rate)

• Negative Checks were used to limit the population growth. It

included abstinence/ postponement of marriage which lowered
the fertility rate.
• Malthus favored moral restraint (including late marriage and
sexual abstinence) as a check on population growth. However, it is
worth noting that Malthus proposed this only for the working and
poor classes!
Positive Checks (Increased Death Rate)

• Positive Checks were ways to reduce population size by

events such as famine, disease, war - increasing the
mortality rate and reducing life expectancy.
Malthusian Catastrophe

• A Malthusian catastrophe (also phrased Malthusian check, Malthusian crisis,

Malthusian disaster, or Malthusian nightmare) was originally foreseen to be a
forced return to subsistence-level conditions once population growth had
outpaced agricultural production. Later formulations consider economic
growth limits as well.
• Malthusian catastrophe are very similar to the Iron Law of Wages.
• The main difference is that the Malthusian theories predict what will happen
over several generations or centuries, whereas the Iron Law of Wages predicts
what will happen in a matter of years and decades.
Criticism

• As a general rule the following points were raised as criticism against

Malthusian Theory
• The ratio of arithmetical progression of means of subsistence and the geometrical progression of
population growth was never proved.
• In so many cases the theory of the growth of the means of subsistence in arithmetical ratio was
not proved.
• Malthus did not succeed in connecting positive and preventive checks with his theory.
• Friedrich Engels also criticizes the Malthusian catastrophe because Malthus failed to see that
surplus population is connected to surplus wealth, surplus capital, and surplus landed property.
• Ester Boserup wrote that population levels determine agricultural methods, rather than
agricultural methods determining population (via food supply).
MALTHUSIAN MODEL

• “ Essay on the Principle of Population” 1798,

• Unlike Smith, he looked not at wealth, but at
poverty,
• Economic growth is not automatic,
• It is not smooth, but has fluctuations,
• Population growth will overtake growth of
food, leading to increasing poverty.
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ASSUMPTIONS

• Capitalist economy,
• Three classes – workers, landlords and capitalists,
• Total supply of land is fixed,
• Diminishing returns on land,
• Growth of population is directly related to the wage
rate (w).
As w increases, population increases,
and if w decreases, population decreases.
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ECONOMIC GROWTH

• Capitalists invest,
• Workers and landlords only consume
• Increase in investment, leads to increase in capital,
• Increase in capital increases output and growth.
• Per capita income also increases.
• But Malthus felt this will not continue forever.

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POPULATION GROWTH

• Population growth is a function of wage rate.

• When wage rate increases, birth rate also increases,
population increases
• When wage rate decreases, death rate increases,
population decreases.
• So with more growth, more output, and wages
increase,
• This cannot be sustained, due to population growth.

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RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH

• Population grows geometrically (exponentially),

• But food production grows arithmetically (linearly).
• So as economic growth continues, the gap between food and population will
widen,
• This will eventually lead to fall in standards of living, and increasing poverty.
• This is known as the “Iron Law of Wages.”

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POPULATION AND FOOD GROWTH
Time Population Food
g=a x 2 g=b+2
Population
y1 10 10
mn
y2 20 12

y3 40 14 Food

y4 80 16

y5 160 18
0
Time
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• This is known as the “Malthusian Trap”
• When economic growth takes place, it will not improve the conditions of workers,
• Higher growth, leads to increase in wage rates,
• Higher wage rates leads to increase in population. Demand for food rises,
• But food does not grow at the same rate as population.
• The increasing gap, leads to poverty, hunger, death, more misery.

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SOLUTION

• Malthus suggests that population growth should be

controlled.
• This can be done by ‘Voluntary’ or ‘Positive’ checks,
• Such as birth control, late marriages, family planning.
• Otherwise, there will be ‘Negative’ checks to
population growth –
• Famines, floods, wars, diseases will increase death
rate, and bring population down to manageable
levels.
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CRITICISM

• Pessimistic view of the economy

• Data of developed countries shows that as PCY increased, birth rates automatically
decreased.
• Called “demographic transition”
• Output of food has also increased, due to improved technology
• Imports and free trade of food can take place, Malthus was for Protection.

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• But:
• Malthusian theory is still applicable to less developed countries.
• Increasing population is consuming all the surplus, nothing available for investment.
• Inferior land is used, and output falls,
• Technology is inferior,
• In recent times, the depletion of natural resources, has shown the importance of
Malthusian theory of exponential growth in a finite world.

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THANK YOU ALL