SALES FORCASTING
Sales and
Distribution
Management
Keynote
Presented by
Jhanvi Thakor IU2355550167
Jayesh Upadhyay IU2352000053
Pratham Singh IU2355550193
Dharmik Akhani IU2355550184
Devraj Chaudhary IU2352000052
Shivangi Rajapara IU2355550072
Mansi Paliwal IU2355550199
Sakshi Patel IU2352000045
TABLE OF CONTENTS
01 Introduction 05 Causal Models
Historical Sales Advanced
02 Data
06 Methods
Quantitative
03 Methods 07 Hybrid Methods
Qualitative
04 Methods 08 Conclusion
01
Introduction
Introduction
Sales forecasting is essential for businesses to
predict future revenue, manage inventory, and
make strategic decisions. Different methods can
be applied depending on data availability, market
conditions, and the specific needs of the business.
These methods can be broadly categorized
into quantitative and qualitative approaches,
each offering unique advantages.
02
Historical
Sales Data
Historical Sales Data
Utilizes past sales data to predict future sales. This
method assumes that past trends and patterns will
continue. Techniques include:
Time Series Analysis: Analyzes historical data
over regular intervals to identify trends,
seasonal patterns, and cyclical patterns.
Moving Averages: Smooths out short-term
fluctuations and highlights longer-term trends
by averaging sales data over a specific number
of periods
03
Quantitative
Methods
Quantitative Methods
Exponential Smoothing: Applies decreasing
weights to older data, giving more importance
to recent observations. Variants include Single,
Double, and Triple Exponential Smoothing.
ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving
Average): A statistical analysis model that uses
time series data to understand and predict
future values.
04
Qualitative
Methods
Qualitative Methods
Expert Judgment: Relies on the insights and
opinions of experienced professionals who have
knowledge about the market and industry.
Market Research: Gathers data through
surveys, focus groups, and other research
methods to gauge future sales potential based
on consumer behavior and market trends.
05
Causal Models
Causal Models
Regression Analysis: Examines the
relationship between sales and one or more
independent variables (e.g., marketing spend,
economic indicators). It predicts sales based on
these variables.
Econometric Models: Combines economic
theories with statistical methods to forecast
sales, often incorporating multiple factors and
their interactions.
06
Advanced
Methods
Advanced Methods
Machine Learning: Uses algorithms and data
mining techniques to uncover patterns and
make predictions based on large and complex
datasets. Examples include decision trees,
neural networks, and ensemble methods.
Simulation Models: Uses simulations to
forecast sales under various scenarios, often
incorporating randomness and uncertainty.
07
Hybrid Methods
Hybrid Methods
Combination Forecasting: Combines multiple
forecasting methods to improve accuracy. For
example, blending quantitative and qualitative
approaches or integrating statistical methods
with expert judgment.
08
Conclusion
Conclusion
The key to effective sales forecasting lies in selecting the
right combination of methods, balancing data-driven
techniques with expert knowledge, and continuously
refining the approach based on market shifts. By
leveraging the appropriate sales forecasting methods,
businesses like Pepsi can optimize inventory, enhance
production planning, and maintain a competitive edge in
an ever-evolving market.
Forecasting is not just about predicting sales—it’s about
enabling strategic growth and sustainability.
Thank you
