Continuous

Probability
Distributions
Continuous Probability
Distributions
 A continuous random variable can assume any
value in an interval on the real line or in a
collection of intervals.

 It is not possible to talk about the probability

of the random variable assuming a particular
value. (the area at a particular point is zero)

 Instead, we talk about the probability of the

random variable assuming a value within a
given interval.
 Continuous Probability Distributions

 The probability of the random variable assuming a

value within some given interval from x1 to x2 is
defined to be the area under the graph of the
probability density function between x1 and x2.

f (x) Exponential

f (x) Normal

x
xx1122 x22
x11

x
x11 x22
Uniform Probability Distribution
 A random variable is uniformly distributed
whenever the probability is proportional to the
interval’s length.
 The uniform probability density function is:

f (x) = 1/(b – a) for a < x < b

=0 elsewhere

where: a = smallest value the variable can assume

b = largest value the variable can assume
Uniform Probability Distribution
 Expected Value of x

E(x) = (a + b)/2

 Variance of x

Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
Uniform Probability Distribution
 Example: Slater's Buffet

Slater customers are charged for the

amount of salad they take. Sampling
suggests that the amount of salad
taken is uniformly distributed
between 5 ounces and 15 ounces.
 Uniform Probability Distribution

 Uniform Probability Density Function

f(x) = 1/10 for 5 < x < 15

=0 elsewhere

where:
x = salad plate filling weight
 Uniform Probability Distribution

 Expected Value of x

E(x) = (a + b)/2
= (5 + 15)/2
= 10

 Variance of x

Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
= (15 – 5)2/12
= 8.33
Uniform Probability Distribution
Uniform Probability Distribution for Salad
Plate Filling Weight

f(x)

1/10

x
0 5 10 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
 Uniform Probability Distribution

What is the probability that a customer

will take between 12 and 15 ounces of
salad?
f(x)

P(12 < x < 15) = 1/10(3) = .3

1/10

x
0 5 10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
Practice Example
Area as a Measure of Probability
 The area under the graph of f(x) and
probability are identical.

 This is valid for all continuous random

variables.
 The probability that x takes on a value
between some lower value x1 and some higher
value x2 can be found by computing the area
under the graph of f(x) over the interval from
x1 to x2.
Normal Probability Distribution
The normal probability distribution is the most
important distribution for describing a continuous
random variable.

 It is widely used in statistical inference.

 It has been used in a wide variety of

applications
including:
• Heights of people • Test scores
• Rainfall amounts • Scientific measurements
Normal Probability Distribution
Normal Probability Density Function
1  (x  )2 / 2 2
f (x)  e
 2

where:
 = mean
 = standard deviation
 = 3.14159
e = 2.71828
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The distribution is symmetric; its skewness

measure is zero.

x
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics
The entire family of normal probability
distributions is defined by its mean  and its
standard deviation  .

Standard Deviation 

x
Mean 
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The highest point on the normal curve is at the

mean, which is also the median and mode.

x
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The mean can be any numerical value: negative,

zero, or positive.

x
-10 0 25
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The standard deviation determines the width of the

curve: larger values result in wider, flatter curves.

 = 15

 = 25

x
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics
Probabilities for the normal random variable are
given by areas under the curve. The total area
under the curve is 1 (.5 to the left of the mean and
.5 to the right).

.5 .5
x
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics (basis for the empirical rule)

 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics (basis for the empirical rule)

99.72%
95.44%
68.26%

x

 – 3  – 1  + 1  + 3
 – 2  + 2
Standard Normal Probability
Distribution
 Characteristics

A random variable having a normal distribution

with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1 is
said to have a standard normal probability
distribution.
 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The letter z is used to designate the standard

normal random variable.



z
0
 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Converting to the Standard Normal

Distribution
x 
z


We can think of z as a measure of the number of

standard deviations x is from .
 Normal curve

MEAN = X
68.27% S.D = 

95.45%
X
3 2 -  2 3
99.73%
Standard
Normal
Curve MEAN=0
68.27% S.D=1
95.45%
3 2 1 Z=0 1 2 3
-
99.73%
Example: Finding a Proportion
Below the Mean

X
Z

X 20,  30,  10
20  30
Z  1
10
 TABLE OF Z- TRANSFORM
 Gives area under curve for +ve side only.
[Between 0 to z].

 For area on –ve side, find area on +ve side

for the same value (symmetric curve)
P(0  z  1.20)= P(-1.20  z  0)

0 z
Find area under the normal curv
in each of the following cases-
1) P( 0  Z  1.2)

Ans: .3849

0 1.2
 2) P( -.68  Z  0)

= P( 0  Z  .68)= .2517

3) P( -.46  Z  2.21)

-.46 2.21

P( -.46  Z  0) +P( 0 Z  2.21)

= .1772 + .4864 = .6636
4) P( .81  Z  1.94 )

.81 1.94

P( 0  Z  1.94) – P( 0  Z  .81)
=.4738 - .2910 = .1828
5) TO THE LEFT OF Z = - .6

=.5 - P(0  Z  .6)

Ans: .2743

-.6
6) TO THE RIGHT OF Z= -1.28

=.5 + P(0  Z  1.28)

Ans: .8997

-1.28
7) RIGHT OF Z= 2.05 AND LEFT OF Z= -1.44

-1.44 2.05

=1- P(-1.44  Z  2.05)

= 1-[P(0  Z  1.44)+ P(0  Z  2.05)]= .0951
Standard Normal Probability
Distribution
 Example: Pep Zone

Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies

including
a popular multi-grade motor oil. When the
stock of
this oil drops to 20 gallons, a replenishment
order is
The store manager is concerned that sales
placed.
are
being lost due to stockouts while waiting for
a
replenishment order.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Example: Pep Zone

It has been determined that demand
during
replenishment lead-time is normally
distributed
with a mean
The of 15would
manager gallons
likeand a standard
to know the
deviation
probability
of
of 6 gallons. during replenishment lead-time.
a stockout
In
other words, what is the probability that
demand P(x > 20) = ?
during lead-time will exceed 20 gallons?
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Solving for the Stockout Probability

Step 1: Convert x to the standard normal distributio

z = (x - )/
= (20 - 15)/6
= .83

Step 2: Find the area under the standard normal

curve to the left of z = .83.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Cumulative Probability Table for the Standard

Normal Distribution
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
.5 .6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054 .7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224
.6 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389 .7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549
.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852
.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133
.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
. . . . . . . . . . .

P(z
< .83)
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Solving for the Stockout Probability

Step 3: Compute the area under the standard norm

curve to the right of z = .83.

P(z > .83) = 1 – P(z < .83)

= 1- .7967
= .2033

Probability P(x >

of a 20)
stockout
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Solving for the Stockout Probability

Area = 1 - .7967
Area = .7967
= .2033

z
0 .83
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

If the manager of Pep Zone wants the
probability
of a stockout during replenishment lead-time
to be
no more
(Hint: thana.05,
Given what should
probability, the use
we can reorder
the
point be?
standard
normal table in an inverse fashion to find the
-------------------------------------------------------------
corresponding z value.)
--
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Solving for the Reorder Point

Area = .9500

Area = .0500

z
0 z.05
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Solving for the Reorder Point

Step 1: Find the z-value that cuts off an area of .05

in the right tail of the standard normal
distribution.

We look up
the
complement
of the tail
area
(1 - .05 = .95)
 Solving for the Reorder Point

Step 2: Convert z.05 to the corresponding value of x

x =  + z.05
= 15 + 1.645(6)
= 24.87 or 25

A reorder point of 25 gallons will place the probabili

of a stockout during leadtime at (slightly less than)
Normal Probability
Distribution
 Solving for the Reorder Point

Probability of
no Probability of
stockout a
during stockout
replenishmen during
t replenishmen
lead-time t
= .95 lead-time
= .05
x
15 24.87
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Solving for the Reorder Point

By raising the reorder point from 20 gallons to
25 gallons on hand, the probability of a stockout
decreases from about .20 to .05.
This is a significant decrease in the chance that
Pep Zone will be out of stock and unable to meet a
customer’s desire to make a purchase.
Case-Let
We have a training program designed to
upgrade the supervisory skills of
production line supervisors. Because
the program is self administered,
supervisors requires different no. of
hours to complete the program.A study
of past participants indicates the mean
length of time spent on the program is
500 hrs and that this normally
distributed random variable has a
standard deviation of 100 hours.
What is the probability that a participant selected
at random will require more than 500 hrs to
complete the program?
What is the prob. That a candidate selected at
random will take between 500 and 650 hours to
complete the training program?
What is the prob. That a candidate will take more
than 700 hours to complete the program?
Prob. In between 550 and 650 hrs.
Fewer than 580 hrs.
In between 420 and 680 hrs.
Q. A grinding machine is so set that its
production of shafts has an average diameter
of 10.10 cms and standard deviation of 0.20
cm. The product specifications call for shaft
diameters between 10.05 cm and 10.20 cm.
What proportion of output meets the
specifications presuming normal distribution?
SOL: 0.2902

Q. Assume mean height of soldiers to be 68.22

inches with variance of 10.8 inches. How
many soldiers in a regiment of 1,000 are
Expected to be over six feet tall.

SOL: 125
Q.In a test given to 1,000 students, the
average score was 42 and s.d = 24. Find
a) number of students exceeding a score of
50.
b) number of students between 30 and 54
SOL: A) 1000x .3696 B) 383

Q. Sacks of grain have an average of 120

kgs.It is found that 10% of the bags are over
125 kgs.Assuming the distribution to be
normal,find the standard deviation.
 Q. Assume in a distribution exactly normal,
7% of the items are under 35 and 89% are
under 63. What is the mean and s.D of the
Distribution ?
SOL:
Z corresponding to 7%
X=35 and area .43 on
Left is –1.48 35 X 63
89%
39%
Z corresponding to
X=63 and area .39 on
Right is 1.23
7%
Z1 Z=0 Z2
MEAN=50.3, S.D=10.33
43%
Q. Of a large group of men 5% are
under 60 inches in height and 40% are
between 60 & 65 inches. Assuming a
normal distribution, find mean height
and s.d.
ANS: MEAN=65.429;S.D= 3.3
Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities

When the number of trials, n, becomes large,

evaluating the binomial probability function by hand
or with a calculator is difficult.

The normal probability distribution provides an

easy-to-use approximation of binomial probabilities
where np > 5 and n(1 - p) > 5.

In the definition of the normal curve, set

  = np  p)
np (1and
Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities

Add and subtract a continuity correction factor

because a continuous distribution is being used to
approximate a discrete distribution.

For example, P(x = 12) for the discrete binomial

probability distribution is approximated by
P(11.5 < x < 12.5) for the continuous normal
distribution.
 Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities

 Example
Suppose that a company has a history of
making errors in 10% of its invoices. A
sample of 100 invoices has been taken, and
we want to compute the probability that 12
invoices
In thiscontain errors.
case, we want to find the binomial
probability of 12 successes in 100 trials. So,
we set:
  np (1 =
 pnp
) = 100(.1) = 10
= [100(.1)(.9)] ½
=3
 Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities

 Normal Approximation to a Binomial

Probability
Distribution with n = 100 and p = .1

=3
P(11.5 < x < 12.5)
(Probability
of 12 Errors)

x
 = 10 12.5
11.5
 Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities

 Normal Approximation to a Binomial

Probability
Distribution with n = 100 and p = .1

P(x < 12.5) = .7967

x
10 12.5
 Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities

 Normal Approximation to a Binomial

Probability
Distribution with n = 100 and p = .1

P(x < 11.5) = .6915

x
10
11.5
 Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities

 The Normal Approximation to the Probability

of 12 Successes in 100 Trials is .1052

P(x = 12)
= .7967 - .6915
= .1052

x
10 12.5
11.5
 NORMAL APPROXIMATION
Q. Use Normal Approximation to the binomial
distribution to find the probability of
winning at most 70 of 100 matches by a team,
when the probability of winning each match
is .75
HINT: p= .75, n=100, MEAN=np=.75*100=7
S.D= SQRT(npq) = 4.33

Convert Discrete To Continuous- Apply Continu

Correction
Prob Of Winning Not More Than 70 Matches
P(X  70.5)=P(Z  -1.04)= .15
Q. Find the probability of getting 5 heads and
10 tails in 15 tosses of a fair coin using
Normal distribution. Also compare your
Answer with binomial distribution .
Sol: p be the prob of getting head in single
toss =1/2
n=15 ; np=7.5 ; s.d = sqrt(npq)=1.94
Normal Approx: P( X =5)  P(4.5  X  5.5)
= P(-1.55 Z  -
1.03)= .0909
Binomial
n Distribution:
5 n 5
c5 p q
P(x=5)= = .09164 (approx.
same)
Exponential Probability Distribution

 The exponential probability distribution is

useful in describing the time it takes to
 complete a task. random variables can be used
The exponential
to describe:
•Time between vehicle arrivals at a toll booth
•Time required to complete a questionnaire
•Distance between major defects in a highway
 In waiting line applications, the exponential
distribution is often used for service times.
Exponential Probability Distribution

 A property of the exponential distribution is

that the mean and standard deviation are
equal.

 The exponential distribution is skewed to the

right.
Exponential Probability Distribution
Density Function

1
f ( x )  e  x /  for x > 0


where:  = expected or mean

e = 2.71828
Exponential Probability Distribution
Cumulative Probabilities

P ( x  x0 ) 1  e  xo / 

where:
x0 = some specific value of x
Exponential Probability Distribution
 Example: Al’s Full-Service Pump
The time between arrivals of cars at Al’s
full-
service gas pump follows an exponential
probability
distribution with a mean time between arrivals
of 3
minutes. Al would like to know the probability
that
the time between two successive arrivals will
be 2
minutes or less.
Exponential Probability Distribution
 Example: Al’s Full-Service Pump

f(x)

.4 P(x < 2) = 1 - 2.71828-2/3 = 1 - .5134 = .4

.3
.2
.1
x
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time Between Successive Arrivals (mins.)
Relationship between the Poisson
and Exponential Distributions
The Poisson distribution
provides an appropriate description
of the number of occurrences
per interval

The exponential distribution

provides an appropriate description
of the length of the interval
between occurrences
Example
Suppose the umber of cars that arrive at a
car wash during one hour is described by
Poisson probability distribution with a mean
of 10 cars per hr. The Poisson probabixlity
function that gives the probability of x
arrivals per hour is
f(x)= 10x e-10/ x!
As the average number of arrivals is 10 cars
hour, the average time between cars arriving
is
1hr/10 cars = 0.1hr/car
It implies the time between the arrivals has a
mean =0.1 hr per car, so the exponential
distribution is
f(x) = 10e-10x