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Hypothesis

Part of research methodology

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Ram Kumar
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15 views

Hypothesis

Part of research methodology

Uploaded by

Ram Kumar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Biostatistics and Research Methodology

Title of lecture: HYPOTHESIS


Type-1 & TYPE-II ERROR

RAM KUMAR
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR
2
In this session ….

 What is hypothesis? and its type


 What is hypothesis testing?
 Type I and Type II errors
Definition…… 3

 A hypothesis is a formal tentative statement of the expected relationship


between two or more variables under study.
 A hypothesis helps to translate the research problem & objectives into a
clear explanation
 A clearly stated hypothesis includes the variables to be measured,
identifies the population to be examined, & indicates the proposed
outcome for the study.
 In general- Hypothesis is a tentative prediction or explanation of the
relationship between two variables
What is Hypothesis Testing? 4

Hypothesis testing refers to

1. Making an assumption, called hypothesis, about a population parameter.

2. Collecting sample data.

3. Calculating a sample statistic.

4. To test the validity of our assumption we determine the difference between the
hypothesis parameter value and the sample value.)
5

HYPOTHESIS
TESTING

Null hypothesis, H0 Alternative hypothesis,HA

State the hypothesized value of the All possible alternatives other than
parameter before sampling. the null hypothesis.
The assumption we wish to test (or E.g µ ≠ 20
the assumption we are trying to
reject) µ > 20
E.g population mean µ = 20 µ < 20
 There is no difference between There is a difference between coke
coke and diet c and diet coke
oke
Null Hypothesis 6
• The Null hypothesis H0 represents a theory that has been put forward either
because it is believed to be true.

• it is used as a basis for an argument and has not been proven.

• For example, in a clinical trial of a new drug, the null hypothesis might be that the
new drug is no better, on average, than the current drug. We would write

H0: there is no difference between the two drugs on an average.


Alternative Hypothesis 7
• The alternative hypothesis, HA, is a statement of what a statistical hypothesis test
is set up to establish.
• For example, in the clinical trial of a new drug, the alternative hypothesis might
be that the new drug has a different effect, on average, compared to that of the
current drug. We would write
• HA: the two drugs have different effects, on average.
or
• HA: the new drug is better than the current drug, on average.

The result of a hypothesis test:


‘Reject H0 in favor of HA’ OR ‘Do not reject H0’
Selecting and interpreting significance level
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1. Deciding on a criterion for accepting or rejecting the null hypothesis.

• Significance level refers to the percentage of sample means that is outside certain
prescribed limits.

• e. g. testing a hypothesis at 5% level of significance means

 We reject the null hypothesis if it falls in the two regions of area 0.025.
 Do not reject the null hypothesis if it falls within the region of area 0.95.

• The higher the level of significance, the higher is the probability of rejecting the null
hypothesis when it is true.
(acceptance region narrows)
Type I and Type II Errors 9
1. Type I error refers to the situation when we reject the null hypothesis when it is true
(H0 is wrongly rejected).
e. g. H0: there is no difference between the two drugs on average.
Type I error will occur if we conclude that the two drugs produce different effects when
actually there isn’t a difference.
Prob (Type I error) = significance level = α

2. Type II error refers to the situation when we accept the null hypothesis when it is
false.
H0: there is no difference between the two drugs on average.
Type II error will occur if we conclude that the two drugs produce the same effect when
actually there is a difference.
Prob (Type II error) = ß
In the context of testing of hypothesis, there are basically two types of 10
errors we
can make:-

TYPE I Error TYPE II Error


Type I Error 11

A type I error, also known as an error of the first kind


It occurs when the null hypothesis (H0) is true, but is rejected.
The rate of the type I error is called the size of the test.
It is denoted by the Greek letter α (alpha).
It usually equals the significance level of a test.
If type I error is fixed at 5 %, it means that there are about 5% chances in 100%
that we will reject H0 when H0 is true.
Type II Error 12

Type II error, also known as an error of the second kind


It occurs when the null hypothesis is false, but due to error fails to be rejected.
Type II error means accepting the hypothesis which should have been rejected.
A Type II error is committed when we fail to believe a truth.
The rate of the type II error is denoted by the Greek letter β (beta) and related to the
power of a test (which equals 1-β ).
13
In the tabular form two error
can be presented as follows
14
15

If there is a diagnostic value change in the choice of two


means, moving it to decrease type I error will increase type
II error (and vice-versa)
16
17
Reducing Type I Errors 18

 Prescriptive testing
is used to increase the level of confidence, which in turn reduces Type I errors. The
chances of making a Type I error are reduced by increasing the level of confidence.
Reducing Type II Errors 19

Descriptive testing is used to better describe the test condition and acceptance criteria,
which in turn reduces Type II errors.

This increases the number of times we reject the Null hypothesis – with a resulting
increase in the number of Type I errors

(rejecting H0 when it was really true and should not have been rejected).
Type I and Type II Errors – Example 20

• Your null hypothesis is that the battery for a heart pacemaker has an average life of
300 days, with the alternative hypothesis that the average life is more than 300 days.
• You are the quality control manager for the battery manufacturer.
• Would you rather make a Type I error or a Type II error?
• Based on your answer to part (a), should you use a high or low significance level?
Type I and Type II Errors – Example 21

Given H0 : average life of pacemaker = 300 days


HA: Average life of pacemaker > 300 days
(a) It is better to make a Type II error (where H 0 is false i. e. average life is actually more
than 300 days but we accept H0 and assume that the average life is equal to 300 days)
(b) As we increase the significance level (α) we increase the chances of making a type I
error.
(c) Since here it is better to make a type II error we shall choose a low α.
Type III Errors 22

 Many statisticians are now adopting a third type of error, a type III
 When Null hypothesis was rejected for the wrong reason.
23

THANKU

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