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Predication of Hotel Booking Cancellation 1

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23 views16 pages

Predication of Hotel Booking Cancellation 1

Uploaded by

unknown boy faisu
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Predication of Hotel

Booking Cancellation
Submitted To: Mr. Vikas Attray
Submitted By: Ritu Arora & Faisal Chaudhary
Batch: PGA30
Imarticus Learning
introduction
• Hotel thrive on advance reservation systems.
Due to the current completive market, hotels
need to have an easy cancellation policy for
guest.
• The average cancellation reservation is 24%.
Cancellation effect the revenue of the hotel will
be lose potential revenue customers who will
not cancel.
• As a part of the project, I will be analyzing
bookings data from XYZ and creating a model
to predict if reservation will cancel or not. This
can help the hotel forecast the future revenue
and also help price the rooms accordingly

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Aim of this Project
• The main aim of this project to create a model that finds reservation that have a
high chance of getting cancelled. This solves problems like room management anf
forecasting income for the hotel management.

• The final model can predict can help the reservation that could be cancelled with
a good accuracy. These reservation are the one mostly made by guest who are not
sure about their at the hotel.

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About Data
• Number of Rows
119390

• Number of Columns
36

• Types Of Datatype
Int
Float
Object

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Explotary Data Analysis(EDA)

The accompany bar graph shows


the percentages of reservation
that are cancelled and those that
are not. It is obvious that there
are still a significant number of
reservation that have not been
cancelled. There are still 37% of
clients who cancelled their
reservation, which has a
significant impact on the hotels
earnings.
Reservation status in different hotels

In comparison to resort hotels,


city hotels have more booking. Its
possible that resort hotels are
more expensive than those in
cities.
Reservation status in different hotels

This line graph above shows that, on certain days, the average daily rate for a city hotel is less than
of a resort hotels, and on other days, it is even less. It goes without saying that weekends and
holidays may see a rise in resorts hotel rates.
Reservation status in different hotels with Months

We have a developed the grouped bar graph to analyze the months with the highest and lowest
reservation levels according to reservation levels according to status. As can seen both the number
confirmation reservations and number of cancelled reservation are largest in the months of august.
Where January is the month with the most cancelled reservation.
Top 10 Country with reservation cancelled
Correction among the columns

I have created a new column


“corr” to use in the correction
heatmap.
Here I see arrival date year and
arrival date day of month are highly
corelated . So I was drop arrival date
of day column.

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Model Building
• Import Libraries

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Logistic Regression

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Decision Tree Classifier

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Random Forest Classifier

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Conclusion

From all the classifier I have used. I found that random forest is best classification
algorithm the worked best for dataset

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Suggestion
• Cancellation rates rise as the price does. In order to prevent cancellation of
reservation, hotels could work on their on the pricing strategies' and try to
lower the rates for specific hotels based on location. They can also provides
some discounts to the consumers
• As the ratio of the cancellation and not cancellation of the resort hotels is higher
in the resort hotel than city hotels. So the hotels should provide a reasonable
discounted on the room price on weekends or on holidays.
• In the months of January hotels can start campaigns or marketing with a
reasonable amounts to increase their revenue as the cancellation in the highest
in the month.
• They can also increase the quality of their hotels and their services mainly in
Portugal to reduce the cancellation rate.

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