Introduction to

STATISTICS
TOPIC 6
STA104
INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

by Ida Normaya Mohd Nasir (March 2010)

 INTRODUCTION

 Probability gives a measurement of the likelihood

that a certain outcome will occur.
 It acts as a link between descriptive and inferential
statistics.
 Probability is used to make statements about the
occurrence or nonoccurrence of an event under
uncertain conditions.
Definition of Probability

 Probability is a value between 0 and 1

 It describes the chance or likelihood that an event

will happen.

 A value near zero means the event is not likely to

happen. A value near one means it is likely to
happen.

 Probability for event A is denoted by P (A ).

Use of probability theory
 Probability theory is a quantitative measure of
uncertainty. It is a number that conveys the
strength of our belief that certain event will occur.

 Allows the decision maker with only limited

information to analyze the risks and minimize the
gamble inherent.

 Probability theory is the basis for inferential

statistics. In inferential statistics, we make
decisions under conditions of uncertainty.
Basic definition of terms used.
 Experiment
A process that gives one and only one observation
among several likely observations to occur.
Example: Tossing a coin

 Outcome
The result of a single trial of an experiment.
Example: Getting a head or a tail in tossing a fair coin.
Basic definition of terms used.
 Sample Space
A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment.
Example: Consider the experiment of flipping two coins.
Possible outcomes: HH, HT, TH, TT
Therefore the sample space is S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

 Event
A subset of the sample space and consist one or more
outcomes.
Example: In an experiment of tossing a dice and recording the
number on top face. If E is the event that an even number
occurs, then E = 2, 4, 6 
EVENTS

1. Simple Event and Compound Event

2. Mutually Exclusive Events (Disjoint Events)
3. Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
4. Complementary Events.
5. Independent Events
6. Dependent Events.
Simple Event and Compound Event

Simple Event
An event that includes one and only one of the possible
outcomes of an experiment.
Example: Flipping a coin and getting the head

Compound Event
Consists of more than one outcome for an experiment
Example: Tossing a dice and getting the even number on the
top face. The outcome of the experiment is 2, 4, 6 .
Set of Operations
 Mutually Exclusive Events (Disjoint
Events)

Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint if they cannot

occur at the same time. If two events are disjoint, then the
probability of both occurring at the same time is 0, i.e.

 18
P(A and B) = P(A B) = 0100  48.6
37

If two events are mutually exclusive, then the probability of

either occurring is the sum of the probabilities of each
occurring.
Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
Non mutually exclusive events can occur at the
same time, i.e. (A  B) ≠ 0.

In events that are non mutually exclusive,

P(A and B) = P(A  B) ≠ 0.
18
100  48.6
37
Complementary events
384
 100  119 .3
322
The compliment of event A is the event that does
not include all the elements in event A. It is
written as A’
Independent Events
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one
does not affect the probability of the other
occurring.
A and B are independent: P(A and B)=P(A) x P(B)
45
 100  173 .1
26
Dependent Events 18
100  48.6
37
If the occurrence of one event affects the
probability of the occurrence of another event, the
two events are said to be dependent events.
Tree Diagram

• Tree diagram is a picture representation of outcomes or

events.
• It helps to organize calculations that involve several stages.
• To construct a tree diagram, we start from a point.
• From that point draw branches according to the number of
events occur.
Example

A bag contains three red pens, four green pens and six
white pens. Two pens are picked at random one after
another.

a) List the sample space of this experiment. Draw a tree

diagram.
b) If A denotes the event that two green pen will be
selected, list the event in A.
c) If B denotes the event that at least one red pen will be
selected, list the event in B.
Exercise

Oct 2008
Approaches to Probability

a) Classical Probability
b) Relative frequency (Empirical) Probability
c) Subjective probability
Classical Probability

The classical probability concept is applied to

events on the assumptions that the outcomes of
the experiment are equally likely to happen.

n(E)
P (E) = n(S)

where E is the event and S is the sample space.

2
6 Example
A dice is tossed once. Find the probability getting a
number greater than 4.

Let E be event getting a number greater than 4

E = {5,6} n(E)=2 S ={1,2,3,4,5,6}
n(S)=6

n(E)
P (E) = = 2/6 = 1/3
n(S)
Relative frequency (Empirical)
Probability

• Relative frequency probability is based on

observation.

• The various outcomes of an event are not-equally

likely to happen but the experiment is repeated a
large number of times to generate a set of data.
Example
Subjective probability

• Subjected to personal assessment or judgment to

determine probabilities.

• Estimation obtained in such ways is known as

subjective probability.

• With this approach, the probability is measured

using the ‘strength of belief’ that the event will occur
when the experiment is performed.
Properties of Probability

Assuming E is an event,

1. All probabilities are between 0 and 1 inclusive i.e.

0 <= P(E) <= 1
2. The sum of all the probabilities in the sample space is 1
3. The probability of an event that cannot occur is 0.
4. The probability of an event that must occur is 1.
5. Complement of probability:
P(E') = 1 - P(E)
Probability Rules

General Addition Rule

Specific Addition Rule

In cases where the events are mutually exclusive, the intersection

between the two events is zero.
Therefore;
Probability Rules

Multiplication Rule

When two events A and B occur at the same time, the probability
of both events occur is called the joint probability, written as P
(A and B) and can be obtained by using the multiplication rule

Special Multiplication Rule

If A and B are independent events,

Exercise

April 2001
Conditional Probability

• A conditional probability is the probability of an event

given that another event has already occurred.

• Let A and B are two events. The probability that event

B occurs, given that event A has already occurred is

P (B|A) =P(AandB) P(A  B)


P(A) P(A)
Bayes’ Theorem

A formula which allows one to find the probability

of an event occurred as the result of a particular
previous event which had occurred.

P(A j I B)  P(A j ) P(B I A j )

P(A1 ) P(B I A1 )  P(A 2 ) P(B I A 2 )  P(A 3 )P(BI A 3 )
Bayes’ Theorem

The Bayes tree diagram will look like this.

Example

In a certain state, 25% of all cars emit excessive amounts

of pollutants. If the probability is 0.99 that a car emitting
excessive amounts of pollutants will fail the Puspakom
test, and the probability is 0.17 that a car not emitting
excessive amounts of pollutants will nevertheless fail the
test;

(a) What is the probability that a car fails the test?

(b) What is the probability that a car, which fails the test,
actually emits excessive amounts of pollutants?
Solution
Exercise

Oct 2008
Exercise

April 2001
Principles of Counting

1. The Multiplication Formula / Principle

2. Permutation
3. Combination
The Multiplication Formula / Principle

The multiplication formula indicates that if there are m ways

of doing one thing and n ways of doing another thing, there
is m x n ways of doing both.

Example
UiTM Sungai Petani is going to order a 15-seater van. She has a choice of
eight interior colors, ten exterior colors, and four roof colors. How many
possible color schemes are there to choose from?

Solution: 8 x 10 x 4 = 320
The Multiplication Formula / Principle

Example
How many possible outcomes are there when a red dice and a green dice are
thrown?

Solution: 6 x 6 = 36

Example
How many four digit numbers can be formed from the digits 3,4,5,6,7,8 if
a) repetition is not allowed?
b) the numbers in (a) are greater than 5000?

Solution:

(a) 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 360 (b) 4 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 240

Permutation

It is an ordered arrangement without repetition of a set of

objects (distinct or not all distinct).
(The order of arrangement is important in permutations)

Case 1:
Any arrangement of r distinct objects selected from a
single group of n possible object.
The total number permutations or arrangements of n different
objects taken r at a time without repetitions are:

n!
nP r 
(n - r )!
Example

Eleven women players in a bowling team are all equally good.

How many ways are there to choose the first three players
who will be referred to as first, second and third bowler?

Solution: 11! = 990

11P 3 
(11  3)!
Example
In how many ways can 10 students be seated on a bench if
only 4 seats are available?

Solution: 10!= 5040

10 P 4 
(10  4)!

Example

In how many ways can 5 vacant places on a bookshelf be

filled if 8 different books are available?
8!
8P 5 
Solution: = 6720
(8  5)!
Permutation

Case 2:
Any arrangement of r indistinct (which some are of the
same kind) objects selected from a single group of n possible
object. (The order of arrangement is important).

n!
p1 ! p 2 !...p 3 !

Where p1, p2 …pn are the number of same kind of objects from
the entire objects where
p1+ p2 +…+ pn = n.
Example
In how many different ways can the word ‘SUSPENSE’ be
arranged?

Solution: 8! = 3360
3!2!

Example

In how many different ways can the word ‘MISSISSIPPI’ be

arranged?

Solution: 11! = 34650

4!4!2!
Exercise

Oct 2008

April 2003
Combination

It is a formula for counting the number of possible

outcomes of a single experiment in which:

(i) Sampling is done without replacement

(ii) The order in which outcomes occur is
unimportant.

n n!
nC r    
r  r !(n - r )!
Example
In how many ways can you form a 4-member committee
from 10 students?

Solution:  10  10! = 210

10 C 4    
 4  4!(10 - 4)!

Example
33 players in a soccer team are all equally good. How many
ways are there for the coach to pick a team consisting of
20 players?

Solution: 33! = 573,166,440

33 C 20 
20!(33 - 20)!
Example
50 items from a factory contains 20 defective items. If a
sample of 10 items were picked at random, what is the
probability that

a) the sample had six defectives and four non-defectives?

b) the samples has no defectives?

Solution:
(a) 30 C 4 x 20 C 6
= 0.103
50 C 10

(b) 30C 10 = 0.00292

50 C 10
Exercise

April 2003

April 2005
Exercise

April 2007
Exercise

Nov 2005
Exercise

Oct 2000
Exercise

Oct 2003
Exercise

Oct 2003