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Power Consumption Prediction Using Time Series

This document discusses predicting power consumption using time series forecasting. It involves analyzing historical consumption and temperature data to identify patterns and correlations. Various time series models are evaluated to accurately forecast future consumption based on these relationships.

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Souradeep Gupta
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21 views

Power Consumption Prediction Using Time Series

This document discusses predicting power consumption using time series forecasting. It involves analyzing historical consumption and temperature data to identify patterns and correlations. Various time series models are evaluated to accurately forecast future consumption based on these relationships.

Uploaded by

Souradeep Gupta
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Prediction of Power Consumption data

using Time Series Forecasting

An overview of the process of predicting power consumption using


time series forecasting. This involves analyzing consumption data in
relation to maximum and minimum temperatures to make accurate
predictions.
Understanding the Relationship Between
Temperature and Power Consumption

•Recognizing the intricate connection between temperature and power


consumption is vital.
•Temperature fluctuations significantly influence energy usage,
particularly in heating and cooling systems.
•Historical data analysis of power consumption alongside maximum
and minimum temperatures enables the identification of patterns and
correlations.
•This understanding serves as a foundation for accurate prediction
models, enhancing their effectiveness in forecasting power
consumption.
Data collection and preprocessing for time series analysis

• Data Sources: Gathering historical power consumption and temperature data from reliable sources. We collected power
Consumption data for 5 years starting from 2017 to 2021

• Data Cleaning: Removing outliers and handling missing values to ensure data integrity.

• Feature Engineering: Creating time-related features and normalizing the data for analysis.
Output of Outlier Testing Using Z-Score

•Outlier testing using Z-score is a crucial step in data preprocessing.

•Z-score identifies data points that deviate significantly from the mean
of the dataset.

•The output of Z-score outlier testing provides insights into potential


anomalies within the data.

•Visual representations such as scatter plots or histograms may


illustrate outlier detection results effectively.
Choosing the appropriate time series forecasting model

1 Identifying Data Patterns


Exploring data patterns and trends to choose a suitable model.

2 Model Selection Criteria


Understanding criteria like seasonality and data stationarity for model selection.

3 Evaluating Model Performance


Assessing models' accuracy and performance to make an informed choice.
Training the Model with Historical Data

The model is trained using historical temperature and power consumption data. This involves feeding
the model with past temperature and corresponding power consumption values.

The historical data allows the model to learn patterns and correlations between temperature
variations and power usage over time.
Model Selection
•Model selection is a critical step in time series forecasting.

•It involves choosing the most appropriate forecasting model based on data characteristics and
predictive accuracy requirements.

•Common models include Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA
(SARIMA), Exponential Smoothing Methods, and advanced techniques like Long Short-Term
Memory (LSTM) networks.

•Selection criteria may include model simplicity, computational efficiency, and ability to capture
complex patterns in the data.

•The chosen model significantly impacts the forecasting accuracy and ultimately influences decision-
making processes.
Evaluating Model Performance and Accuracy

1 Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) 2 Mean Absolute Percentage Error


(MAPE)
A common metric used to measure the Calculates the average percentage
differences between predicted and actual difference between predicted and actual
values. values.

3 Mean Squared Error (MSE)


A metric using the average squared difference
between predicted and actual values, serving as
a measure of the overall model performance
Visualizing the predicted power
consumption data
• We split the data into training and testing sets.

•Then train the selected model using the training data.

•Model visualization is a crucial aspect of understanding and


interpreting time series forecasting models.

•Graphical representations help visualize model


performance, trends, and patterns within the data.

•The predictions of ARIMA,SARIMA and LSTM are done.


The first one being that of ARIMA and the rest respectively.

•The predictions generated by both SARIMA and LSTM


models deviate significantly from the expected outcomes.
Some possible explanations are due to lack of seasonality
and problems with reshaping the test and train sets
respectively.
Comparing the RMSE values of the different models used

ARIMA SARIMA LSTM

RMSE 387. 3281374296244 1761.6272413578663 1999.3394966622333

MSE 1280 1240 1380


Conclusion and Potential Applications

After evaluating performance and accuracy, the forecasted power


consumption can now be utilized in various applications including
energy management, resource allocation, and infrastructure planning.
The forecasting model provides valuable insights for decision-making
and optimization of power consumption.

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