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Lecture 3 4

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hogef37605
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Lecture.

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Dated: 22/02/2024
Mutually Exclusive Events????
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COMPUTING PROBABILITIES USING COUNTING METHODS

• In many experiments with finite sample spaces, the outcomes can be assumed to be equiprobable.

• The probability of an event is then the ratio of the number of outcomes in the event of interest to the total

number of outcomes in the sample space .

• The calculation of probabilities reduces to counting the number of outcomes in an event.

• In this section, we develop several useful counting (combinatorial) formulas.


• 1. Sampling with Replacement and with Ordering:
• Suppose we choose k objects from a set A that has n distinct objects, with replacement—
• that is, after selecting an object and noting its identity in an ordered list, the object is placed back in the set
before the next choice is made.
• We will refer to the set A as the “population.”The experiment produces an ordered k-tuple
Example: An urn contains five balls numbered 1 to 5. Suppose we select two balls
from the urn with replacement. How many distinct ordered pairs are possible? What
is the probability that the two draws yield the same number?
Sampling without Replacement and with Ordering
Example
Example
Sampling without Replacement and without Ordering

• Suppose we pick k objects from a set of n distinct objects without replacement and that
• we record the result without regard to order. (You can imagine putting each selected object into another jar, so
that when the k selections are completed, we have no record of the order in which the selection was done.) We
call the resulting subset of k selected objects a “combination of size k.”
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This experiment consists of a sequence of two sub-experiments.
We can imagine working our way down the tree shown in Fig. from the topmost node to one of
the bottom nodes:
We reach node 1 in the tree if the outcome of the first draw is a black ball; then the next sub-
experiment consists of selecting a ball from an urn containing one black ball and three white balls.
On the other hand, if the outcome of the first draw is white, then we reach node 2 in the tree and
the second sub-experiment consists of selecting a ball from an urn that contains two black balls and
two white balls.
Thus if we know which node is reached after the first draw, then we can state the probabilities of
the outcome in the next sub-experiment.

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Lecture-6
• 1. Theorem on total probability
• 2. Bayes Theorem
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Quiz No. 1 Dated: 12/03/2024

Name: ………………… Reg No……………………………

A test for a certain disease is assumed to be correct 90% of the time: if a person
has the disease, the test results are positive with probability 0.90, and if the
person is not sick, the test results are negative with probability 0.95. A person
randomly drawn from the population has the
disease with probability 0.03. Given that a person is tested positive, what is the
probability that the person is actually sick?

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