Forecasting

4
PowerPoint presentation to accompany
Heizer and Render
Operations Management, Eleventh Edition
Principles of Operations Management, Ninth Edition

PowerPoint slides by Jeff Heyl

© 2014
© 2014
Pearson
Pearson
Education,
Education,
Inc.Inc. 4-1
 What is Forecasting?
► Process of predicting a
future event
► Underlying basis
of all business
??
decisions
► Production
► Inventory
► Personnel
► Facilities
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4-2
 Forecasting Time Horizons
1. Short-range forecast
► Up to 1 year, generally less than 3 months
► Purchasing, job scheduling, workforce levels,
job assignments, production levels
2. Medium-range forecast
► 3 months to 3 years
► Sales and production planning, budgeting
3. Long-range forecast
► 3+ years
► New product planning, facility location,
research and development
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4-3
 Distinguishing Differences
1. Medium/long range forecasts deal with more
comprehensive issues and support
management decisions regarding planning
and products, plants and processes
2. Short-term forecasting usually employs
different methodologies than longer-term
forecasting
3. Short-term forecasts tend to be more
accurate than longer-term forecasts

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4-4

 Influence of Product Life
Cycle
Introduction – Growth – Maturity – Decline
► Introduction and growth require longer
forecasts than maturity and decline
► As product passes through life cycle,
forecasts are useful in projecting
► Staffing levels
► Inventory levels
► Factory capacity
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4-5
 Product Life Cycle
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline

Best period to Practical to change Poor time to Cost control

increase market price or quality change image, critical
share image price, or quality
Company Strategy/Issues

R&D engineering is Strengthen niche Competitive costs

critical become critical
Defend market
position Drive-through
Internet search engines restaurants
DVDs
Xbox 360
iPods
Boeing 787

Sales
3D printers

3-D game Analog

Electric vehicles TVs
players

Figure 2.5
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 Product Life Cycle
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Product design Forecasting critical Standardization Little product
and development Product and Fewer product differentiation
critical process reliability changes, more Cost
Frequent product Competitive minor changes minimization
and process
OM Strategy/Issues

product Optimum capacity Overcapacity in

design changes improvements and the industry
Increasing stability
Short production options of process Prune line to
runs Increase capacity eliminate items
Long production
High production Shift toward runs not returning
costs product focus good margin
Product
Limited models Enhance improvement and Reduce
Attention to quality distribution cost cutting capacity

Figure 2.5
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 Types of Forecasts
1. Economic forecasts
► Address business cycle – inflation rate, money
supply, housing starts, etc.
2. Technological forecasts
► Predict rate of technological progress
► Impacts development of new products
3. Demand forecasts
► Predict sales of existing products and services

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4-8

 Strategic Importance of
Forecasting
► Supply-Chain Management – Good
supplier relations, advantages in product
innovation, cost and speed to market
► Human Resources – Hiring, training,
laying off workers
► Capacity – Capacity shortages can result
in undependable delivery, loss of
customers, loss of market share

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4-9

 Seven Steps in Forecasting
1. Determine the use of the forecast
2. Select the items to be forecasted
3. Determine the time horizon of the
forecast
4. Select the forecasting model(s)
5. Gather the data needed to make the
forecast
6. Make the forecast
7. Validate and implement results
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 10
 The Realities!
► Forecasts are seldom perfect,
unpredictable outside factors may
impact the forecast
► Most techniques assume an
underlying stability in the system
► Product family and aggregated
forecasts are more accurate than
individual product forecasts

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 11

 Forecasting Approaches
Qualitative Methods
► Used when situation is vague and
little data exist
► New products
► New technology
► Involves intuition, experience
► e.g., forecasting sales on Internet

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 12

 Forecasting Approaches
Quantitative Methods
► Used when situation is ‘stable’ and
historical data exist
► Existing products
► Current technology
► Involves mathematical techniques
► e.g., forecasting sales of color
televisions
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 13
 Overview of Qualitative
Methods
1. Jury of executive opinion
► Pool opinions of high-level experts,
sometimes augment by statistical
models
2. Delphi method
► Panel of experts, queried iteratively

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 14

 Overview of Qualitative
Methods
3. Sales force composite
► Estimates from individual salespersons
are reviewed for reasonableness, then
aggregated
4. Market Survey
► Ask the customer

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 15

 Jury of Executive Opinion
► Involves small group of high-level experts
and managers
► Group estimates demand by working
together
► Combines managerial experience with
statistical models
► Relatively quick
► ‘Group-think’
disadvantage

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 16

 Delphi Method
► Iterative group
process, continues Decision Makers
(Evaluate responses
until consensus is and make decisions)
reached
► 3 types of Staff
(Administering
participants survey)
► Decision makers
► Staff
► Respondents Respondents
(People who can make
valuable judgments)
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 Sales Force Composite
► Each salesperson projects his or her
sales
► Combined at district and national
levels
► Sales reps know customers’ wants
► May be overly optimistic

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 Market Survey
► Ask customers about purchasing
plans
► Useful for demand and product
design and planning
► What consumers say, and what they
actually do may be different
► May be overly optimistic

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 Overview of Quantitative
Approaches
1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
3. Exponential Time-series
smoothing models
4. Trend projection
5. Linear regression Associative
model

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 20

 Time-Series Forecasting

► Set of evenly spaced numerical data

► Obtained by observing response
variable at regular time periods
► Forecast based only on past values, no
other variables important
► Assumes that factors influencing past
and present will continue influence in
future

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 21

 Time-Series Components

Trend Cyclical

Seasonal Random

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 22