Tutorial 3 – Probabilistic
Design
:Designed by
Alaa Tarek Zarif
Noha Abdeltawab
Designing for reliability
Problem 1
A torsion bar to be fitted in the suspension system of a car is made from drawn steel. Determine
the diameter of the torsion bar subjected to pure torsion and given the following design
particulars:
Max. angular deflection = (13 ± 3 ) degrees
Max yield stress in torsion (s , σs ) = (180, 9) MPa
Length of bar = 1000 mm
Modulus of rigidity G ( , σG ) = (80, 5) GPa
Reliability = 99.9 %
N.B : τ , θ =
Solution
We need to obtain the diameter which is available
in both τ and θ.
Lets check the givens
R=0.999, thus from the table z = 3.08, 3.09 or 3.1
the answer will not variate greatly, however we
will be using z = 3.1
z = - = - 3.1
θ = (13 ± 3 ) = (13, degrees = (0.227, 0.017) radians G ( , σG ) = (80, 5) GPa = (80, 5) x 103 Mpa
(s , σs ) = (180, 9) MPa Length of bar = 1000 mm
Const = =
) = (3.1 )
2 2
= const. . (0.227).(80 x103) = 9.08 d
()2 - 2. + ()2 = 9.61 []
S (s , σs ) is given
we need to calculate ( ,
τ
Obtaining Mt from the equation of θ
=
Substituting Mt in 𝝉
τ = = const.
Now we need to calculate Const = =
G ( , σG ) = (80, 5) x 103 Mpa θ = (0.227, 0.017) radians
=const.
= const . 1773.4
= . 1773.4= 0.887 d
( , = (9.08 , 0.887) d
()2 - 2. + ()2 = 9.61 [] (s , σs ) = (180, 9) MPa
( , = (9.08 , 0.886) d
()2 – (2 x 180 x 9.08d )+ ()2 = 9.61 []
= 75.27 d2 – 3276 d + 31621.6 = 0 ……… solving this equation
D = 29.1 or 14.45 mm
Re-calculate z and check the reliability for both and choose the one that satisfies the design
objective.
D= 29.1 mm D= 14.45 mm
σ = (264.2, 25.8) σ = (131.2, 12.8)
Rejected as stress exceeds strength Z= - 3.11 Reliability > 99.9%
Problem 2
In a planar truss problem, as shown in the sketch, an external load of (175 ± 15) kN
acts vertically at point C. The span length AB is (750 ± 6) mm, and the height of the
truss is (500 ± 6) mm. It is assumed that the tube thickness is 10% of the tube
diameter (t = 0.1 d) and that tolerance on diameter is (± 0.015 d). The strength of this
tube material is 600 MPa with standard deviation of 25 MPa. The modulus of
elasticity of steel is 200 GPa with standard deviation of 10 GPa. It is permitted that
one truss in 10 000 may fail. Determine the diameter of the tubes, such that they
will neither buckle nor yield.
Euler buckling formula: Fcr = , where I =
Axial loading (P) can be calculated from, F =
Problem 2
F= (175 ± 15) kN = (175, 5) x N
AB length = (750 ± 6) mm = (750, 2) mm
H = (500 ± 6) mm = (500, 2) mm
t = 0.1 d
d = ( )mm = ( ) mm
S = (600, 25) MPa .
E = (200, 10) GPa.
Reliability = 1 - = 0.9999 = 99.99 %
F= (175, 5) x N d = ( ) mm
AB = (750, 2) mm S = (600, 25) MPa.
H = (500, 2) mm E = (200, 10) GPa.
t = 0.1 d Reliability = 99.99 %
We should calculate 2 things;
That it will not fail (using the axial stress), z = -
That it will not buckle (using the euler equation), z = -
F= (175, 5) x N t = 0.1 d
AB = (750, 2) mm d = ( ) mm
H = (500, 2) mm Reliability = 99.99 %
So that it will not fail
z = - = -3.72
A = = 0.28
P =
L = = = = (625,1.71) mm
µ==625 , σ= 1.71
F= (175, 5) x N S = (600, 25) MPa.
H = (500, 2) mm L = (625, 1.71) mm
= =
F*L=(μ,σ)
μ=175*
σ == 3139307.036
= = (μ , σ)
μ=
σ=
= (, ) MPa
F= (175, 5) x N S = (600, 25) MPa.
P = (440, 3.2) x N A = 0.28 mm
z = - = -3.72
)2= (3.7 )2
=()2 - 2. + ()2 = 13.83 []
= ()2 - 2()+ ()2 = 13.83 []
= - + 429238.6= 0
d= 28.2 or 23.3
D= 28.2 mm D= 23.3 mm
σ = (491.2, 14.2) σ = (719.5, 20.9)
Z= - 3.78 Reliability > 99.99% Rejected as stress exceeds strength
t = 0.1 d mm E = (200, 10) GPa.
d = ( ) mm L = (625,1.71) mm
S = (600, 25) MPa. A = 0.28
That it will not buckle
z = - = -3.72
Fcr = = Fcr =
= ==
→ (µ,σ)
µ==390627.9
σ= =2137.5
=(390627.9 , 2137.5)
=
→ (µ, σ)
μ= 0.511
σ=
= 1.38(0.511, 0.0258) = (0.71, 0.036) MPa
z = - = -3.72
d = ( ) mm E = (200, 10) GPa.
S = (600, 25) MPa. A = 0.28
)2= (3.7 )2
=()2 - 2. + ()2 = 13.83 []
= ()2 - 2()+ ()2 = 13.83 []
= - + 351356.25 = 0
d= 33.4 or 25.6 mm
D= 33.4 mm D= 25.6 mm
σ = (792, 40) σ = (465, 23.6)
Rejected as stress exceeds strength Z= - 3.93 Reliability > 99.99%
Solution
The results yielded the following
To avoid failure we should use a diameter of 28.2 mm check if this diameter will cause buckling
To avoid buckling we should use a diameter of 25.6 mm check if this diameter will cause failure
D= 25.6 is selected
Any
questions?
