Statistics Thursday 25 January 2024

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This Chapter Overview
This chapter is a recap of the concepts you learnt at GCSE.

2 :: Venn Diagrams
1 :: Basic Probability
“Out of 50 students, 12 play both
“I throw two fair die. Calculate the
piano and drums, 30 play piano and
probability the sum of the two dice is
25 play drums. Find the probability a
more than 6.”
randomly chosen student plays
neither instrument.”

3 :: Mutually 4 :: Tree Diagrams

Exclusive/Independent Events
“The probability I hit a
Changes since the old
Determine whether and are target is 0.3. If I hit it, the ‘S1’ syllabus:
independent. probability I hit again on the Conditional
probabilities and the

𝐴 𝐵 𝐶 next shot is 0.4. If I miss, the Addition Rule have

31462 probability I hit on the next been moved to Year 2.

There is also no longer
5 shot is 0.1. If I shoot 3 times, any use of set
what’s the probability I hit notation, e.g. and .

on the first and third shot?”

Probability concepts
! An experiment is a repeatable process that gives rise a number
a number of outcomes.

! An event is a set of one or more of these outcomes.

(We often use capital letters to represent them)

𝑆
“rolling an even number”
𝑃 “rolling a prime number”

1 5 3 ! A sample space is the set

of all possible outcomes.
Because we are dealing with sets, we
𝐸 can use a Venn diagram, where

4 2 6 • the numbers are the individual

outcomes,
• the sample space is a rectangle and
• the events are sets, each a subset
of the sample space.
You do not need to use set notation
like and in this module (but ordinarily
you would!)
Example
Two fair spinners each have four sectors numbered 1 to 4. The two spinners are spun
together and the sum of the numbers indicated on each spinner is recorded.
Find the probability of the spinners indicating a sum of
(a) exactly 5 (b) more than 5

Spinner 1
+ 1 2 3 4
?
1 2 3 4 5
Spinner 2

2 3 4 5 6
3 4 5 6 7
4 5 6 7 8

?
If the sample space is the
amalgamation of two
underlying experiments, a
table is a helpful way to list
the outcomes.
Another Example
The table shows the times taken, in minutes, for a group of students to complete a
number puzzle.
Time, (min)
Frequency

A student is chosen at random. Find the probability for a group of students to complete
a number puzzle
(a) In under 9 minutes (b) in over 10.5 minutes.
Another Example
The table shows the times taken, in minutes, for a group of students to complete a
number puzzle.
Time, (min)
Frequency

A student is chosen at random. Find the probability for a group of students to complete
a number puzzle
(a) In under 9 minutes (b) in over 10.5 minutes.

6 +13 19 10.5 to 11 is a quarter of the

𝑃 ( ≤ 9 )= ?
= interval, therefore we use a
quarter of the 12 people.

40 ? 40 This is an estimate because

we’re assuming the people are
equally distributed across the
interval.
Exercise 5A
Pearson Pure Mathematics Year 1/AS
Pages 71-72
 Probability
Venn diagrams can be used as a
visual representation of events
happening
S

A B
A rectangle labelled S
represents the
Sample Space

Circle A represents Circle B represents

the Probability of the Probability of
event A event B

5B
 Probability
Venn diagrams can be used as a
visual representation of events
happening S
A B

The Area in the middle represents the

Probability of A and B happening together.
P(A  B)
‘n’  ‘and’ S
The whole area represents the Probability A B
of A or B happening (or them together).

P(A  B)
‘u’  ‘or’ S
The area outside of A represents the A B
Probability of A not happening.

P(A') = 1-P(A)
5B
Venn Diagrams
Venn Diagrams allow us to combine events, e.g. “ happened and happened”.

𝑆 𝑆
𝐴 𝐵 𝐴 𝐵

The event “ and ” The event “ or ”

Known as the intersection of and . Known as the union of and .

𝑆 𝑆
𝐴 𝐵 𝐴 𝐵

The event “not ” These can be combined,

Known as the complement of . e.g. “ and not ”.
P(not A) = 1 – P(A)
 Probability
Venn diagrams can be used as a
visual representation of events
happening

A card is selected at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Let A be the event that the card is an
ace, and D be the event that the card is a diamond. Draw a Venn diagram to show this information.

1) Always fill in the middle first. The

middle represents an ace and a S
diamond.
 1 card A D
2) There are 4 aces in total, one of
which has already been filled in
3 1 12
 3 cards extra in ‘A’
3) There are 13 diamonds, one of which
has been filled in
 12 extra cards in ‘D’
36
4) 52 cards in total, subtract the 16
that have been used
 36 cards left outside the circles
5B
 Probability
Venn diagrams can be used as a
visual representation of events
happening

A card is selected at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Let A be the event that the card is an
ace, and D be the event that the card is a diamond. Draw a Venn diagram to show this information.

P(A  D) = 1
52
‘Probability of an Ace and a Diamond’ S

P(A  D) = 16 4 A D
52 13
‘Probability of an Ace or a Diamond’
3 1 12
P(A') = 48 12
52 13
‘Probability of it not being an Ace’

12 3 36
P(A'  D) =
52 13
‘Probability of it not being an Ace, and being a Diamond’

5B
 Probability
Venn diagrams can be used as a
visual representation of events
happening

In a class of 30 students, 7 are in the choir, 5 are in the school band and 2 are in both the
choir and the band. Draw a Venn diagram to show this information.
1) Always fill in the middle first. The
middle represents choir and band.
 2 students S
2) There are 5 students in the band, in
total. 2 are already on the diagram. B C
 3 students extra in ‘B’
3) There are 7 students in the choir, 2 3 2 5
of which are already on the diagram.
 5 more students in ‘C’
4) 30 students in total, 10 already
filled in. 20
 20 students outside the circles

5B
 Probability
Venn diagrams can be used as a
visual representation of events
happening

In a class of 30 students, 7 are in the choir, 5 are in the school band and 2 are in both the
choir and the band. Draw a Venn diagram to show this information.

‘Probability of not being in the band’

P(B') = 1 - P(B) S

B C
5
P(B') = 1 -
30 3 2 5
25 5
P(B') =
30 6
20

You could also have got /30 by counting the parts not in the ‘B’ circle.
25

5B
Example involving probabilities
We can either put frequencies or probabilities into the Venn Diagram.

Given that and , find the probability of:

a)
b)

𝑆 0.15
𝐴 𝐵
0.6 0.25
𝑃 ?( 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝐴 ) =𝟎.𝟖𝟓−𝟎.𝟔=𝟎.𝟐𝟓
0.85
 Probability
Venn diagrams can be used as a
visual representation of events
happening
A vet surveys 100 clients. She finds out the following:
25 have dogs 53 have cats 40 have fish
15 have dogs and cats 10 have cats and fish 11 have dogs and fish
7 have dogs, cats and fish
S
1) Always fill in the middle first. The D C
middle represents all 3 pets
6 8 35
2) Then fill in the parts where 2
circles overlap. Remember to take
away the middle from each. 7
4 3
3) After this you can fill in the rest,
based on what you have already
completed 26

4) Remember to work out how many F 11

people have no pets (add up the
numbers in the circle, and subtract
from 100)
5B
 Probability
Venn diagrams can be used as a
visual representation of events
happening
A vet surveys 100 clients. She finds out the following:
25 have dogs 53 have cats 40 have fish
15 have dogs and cats 10 have cats and fish 11 have dogs and fish
7 have dogs, cats and fish
S
P(Dog only) = 6 3
D C
100 50
6 8 35

P(Doesn't own Fish) = 60 3

7
100 5 4 3

P(None of these) = 11 26
100
F 11

5B
 Test Your Understanding
Jan 2012 Q6 Tip: You’ll lose a mark if you
The following shows the results of a survey on the don’t have a box!
types of exercise taken by a group of 100 people.
65 run 48 swim
60 cycle 40 run and swim
30 swim and cycle 35 run and cycle
25 do all three
?
(a) Draw a Venn Diagram to represent these data.
(4)
Find the probability that a randomly selected
person from the survey ?
?
(b) takes none of these types of exercise,
(c) swims but does not run,
(2)
(2)
?
(d) takes at least two of these types of exercise.
(2)

Jason is one of the above group. Given that Jason

runs,
(e) find the probability that he swims but does not
cycle. (3)
Exercise 5B
Pearson Pure Mathematics Year 1/AS
Pages 74-75
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Recap
Recap
 Probability
You need to recognize when
events are mutually exclusive or S
independent
A B
When 2 events cannot happen at the same time,
they are Mutually Exclusive.

 P( A  B)  0

Consider the Venn Diagram to the right – if the

events are mutually exclusive, they cannot both
happen at the same time.

 P( A  B)  P ( A)  P( B)

You can also work backwards. If the above is true

then the events are Mutually Exclusive.

5C
 Probability
You need to recognize when
events are mutually exclusive or
independent

When one event happening has no effect on

another event happening, they are said to be
independent.

 For example, the probability of event B

happening is the same whether or not event A
has already happened.

 Tossing a coin and rolling a dice are

independent

For independent events:

𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵 ) =𝑃 ( 𝐴) × 𝑃 ( 𝐵)
The reverse is also true. If this rule works,
then the events are independent.

5C
Let’s recap what we have learnt
Mutually Exclusive Events

• If two events are mutually exclusive they can’t happen ?at the same time.
• If and are mutually exclusive then:
• ?
?
• The Venn Diagram would look like:
𝑆
𝐴 𝐵 Since , there can’t be any
outcomes in the overlap,
? so we don’t have an
overlap!
Independent Events
• If two events are independent
? the probability of the other happening.
then whether one event happens does not affect
• If and are independent then:
Note: Independence does not
• ? affect how the circles interact
in a Venn Diagram.

Example 1 2 3 4
1 I pick one of the four numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 at random. What’s the probability that:
a) I pick a multiple of 2:
b) I pick a multiple of 4:
?
? events are not independent.
Explain (conceptually) why these two
2 If it is a multiple of 4, then it must also be a multiple of 2. But if it wasn’t a
multiple of 4 then it may or may not be a multiple of 2. So the events are linked
?
and whether one happened influences the probability of the other happening.
Show that the events are not independent.
3
But therefore not independent.

? This is a common exam question. Either

show that
or that
Independent Events - Example
Independent Events – Your turn
Exercise 5C
Pearson Pure Mathematics Year 1/AS
Pages 77-78
 Further Examples
[Textbook] Events and are [Textbook] The Venn diagram shows the
mutually exclusive and and . number of students in a particular class who
a) Find watch any of three popular TV programmes.
b) Find a) Find the probability that a student
c) Find chosen at random watches or or both.
b) Determine whether watching and
watching are statistically independent.

𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑜𝑟 𝐵 )=0.2+0.4=0.6
? 𝑆
𝐴 𝐵 𝐶
[Textbook] Events and are 3 4510 7
independent and and . Find .
1

1 1 1
𝑃 ( 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 ) = × = not independent.
?3 5 15
?
Test Your Understanding
There are three events . The events The Venn diagram shows the number of
and are mutually exclusive. people who like each of two different
a) Draw a Venn diagram which colours. Determine if and are
represents this information. independent.
b) If and , determine 𝐴 𝐵
6 45
0
𝑆 𝐶
𝐴 𝐵 not independent.
?
The Venn diagram shows the probability of each
event. Given that and are independent,
? determine the possible values of .
Note that may occur with or with , as
we’re not told otherwise. 𝐴 𝐵
0.3 𝑥0.2
𝑦
𝑷 ( 𝒏𝒆𝒊𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓 𝑨𝒏𝒐𝒓 𝑩 )
Solving the quadratic,
?
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Recap: Example
Recap: Task
Recap: Task

or
 Probability
Tree diagrams can show the
possible outcomes for several
events happening in succession
A bag contains 7 green beads and 5 blue beads. A bead is taken at random, the
colour recorded and the bead is not replaced. A second is then taken and the
colour recorded. Find P(1 Green and 1 Blue).
One less Green
6 There is the possibility of Green
Blue the same as
11 G2
to begin with or Blue both times.
7 G1  P(G1) = 7/12
12 5 B2  P(B1) = 5/12
11
7
11 G2
5 The second set of possibilities depend on
12 B1 what colour was taken the first time.
There will be 11 left, and one less of
Green the same
4 B2 either Green or Blue.
as to begin with
11

One less Blue

5D
 Probability
Tree diagrams can show the
possible outcomes for several
events happening in succession
A bag contains 7 green beads and 5 blue beads. A bead is taken at random, the
colour recorded and the bead is not replaced. A second is then taken and the
colour recorded. Find P(1 Green and 1 Blue).
As we want one of each, there are
6
G2 2 possible routes:
11

7 G1
7 x 5 = 35 P(G  B )  𝑃 ( 𝐺1 ∩ 𝐵2 ) + 𝑃( 𝐵1 ∩ 𝐺2)
12 5 B2
11 12 11 132
35 35
P (G  B )  
7 132 132
11 G2 5 x 7 = 35
5 12 11 132
70
12 B1 P(G  B ) 
132
4 B2
11 35
P(G  B ) 
66
5D
Tree Diagrams
0.6 𝐴
At GCSE we saw that tree diagrams were an effective way of showing the
0.3 𝐴
outcome of two events which happen in succession. 0.4 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝐴
𝐴
0.7 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝐴0.8
There are 3 yellow and 2 green counters in a bag. I take two 0.2 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝐴
counters at random. Determine the probability that:
a) They are of the same colour.
b) They are of different colours.

b
a
3 2 6 (Or we could have used our answer
Note that if the

𝑌𝑌 : ×? =
to (a): )
outcomes are the same
?
5 4 20
but reordered, the
probability will be the
same. So we could have
I like to list out the matching quickly done
sequences of outcomes first, then find
the probability for each.

The probability I hit a target on each shot is 0.3. I keep firing until I hit the target.
Determine the probability I hit the target on the 5th shot.

0.7 × 0.3=?0.07203
4
Example
 Exercise 5D
Pearson Pure Mathematics Year 1/AS
Pages 79-80
Extension Questions 2 [STEP I 2011 Q12] I am selling raffle tickets for £1 per ticket. In the
queue for tickets, there are people each with a single £1 coin and
[STEP I 2010 Q12] Prove that, for any real numbers and , .
1 (i) Carol has two bags of sweets. The first bag contains
people each with a single £2 coin. Each person in the queue wants to
buy a single raffle ticket and each arrangement of people in the queue
red sweets and blue sweets, whereas the second is equally likely to occur. Initially, I have no coins and a large supply of
bag contains red sweets and blue sweets. Carol tickets. I stop selling tickets if I cannot give the required change.
shakes the bags and picks one sweet from each bag (i) In the case and , find the probability that I am able to sell one
without looking. Prove that the probability that the ticket each person in the queue.
sweets are of the same colour cannot exceed the (ii) By considering the first people in the queue, show that the
probability that they are of different colours. probability that I am able to sell one ticket to each person in the
(ii) Simon has three bags of sweets. The first bag queue in the case and is
contains red sweet, white sweets and yellow (iii) Show that the probability that I am able to sell one ticket to each
sweets. The second bag contains red sweets, white person in the queue in the case and is .
sweets and yellow sweets. The third bag contains
red sweets, white sweets and yellow sweets. Simon
shakes the bags and picks one sweet from each bag
without looking. Show that the probability that
I have an unfair coin with a fixed probability of heads. Determine
exactly two of the sweets are of the same colour is 3 how the unfair coin could be used to simulate a fair coin, i.e. you
and find the probability that the sweets are all of the declare “Heads” or “Tails” each with probability 0.5.
same colour. Deduce that the probability that exactly Throw the coin twice. Then the probability of each sequence:
two of the sweets are of the same colour is at least 6
times the probability that the sweets are all of the Note that two of these have the same probability. So if the first
throw is Heads and the second Tails, declare “Heads”, or if Tails
same colour.
?
then Heads, declare “Tails”. If the two throws are the same, repeat
the process until the two throws are different.