Unit 3rd
Unit 3rd
The entire classical theory depends upon the Say's law of market. Whereas, the
modern or general theory of income and employment is most important
advance in economic analysis in the twentieth century.
Macro theories are designed to explain the situation existing at that time, i.e. they
relate to a particular time period (paradigm). Consequently they are not universal
truths, but may be more or less useful depending on prevailing conditions. Broadly
macro theories of income determination may divide into three phases:
all problems and the role of government was to keep its nose out of things and
let
those market forces work their magic. Policy should focus on lowering tax rates,
reducing the power of unions, privatizing as much of the public sector as
possible,
lowering unemployment benefits, making wages flexible and providing the
infrastructure to support private enterprise.
Say's Law of Markets is a set of economic principles that are commonly associated
with the concepts developed by Jean-Baptiste Say during the latter 18th and early
19th centuries.
He stated that there can be no demand without supply. A central element of Say's
Law is that recession does not occur because of failure in demand or lack of money.
In Say's view, creation of more money simply results in inflation; more money
demanding the same quantity of goods does not represent an increase in real
demand.
Say's ideas focus on the underlying reasons for economic recessions and the roles
that supply and demand play in the creation and perpetuation of a recession.
1) J.B. Say :
"Supply creates its own demand.“
2) J.S. Mill :
"Consumption co-exists with production. Production is the cause, the sole
cause
of demand. It never furnishes supply without furnishing demand, both at the
same time and to an equal extent.“
3) Mc Connell :
"The very act of producing goods generates an amount of income exactly
equal
to the value of the goods produced. That is the production of any output
would automatically provide the wherewithal to take that output off the
market"
Say's Law of Markets is based on
the following assumptions:
1) Perfectly Competitive Economy :
The law assumes perfect competition in all markets. Under perfect competition if
the demand and supply of factors and commodities are not equal then, their
prices will change in such a manner that their demand will be equal to their
supply.
2) Optimum Allocation of Resources :
The resources are optimally allocated in different channels of production on the
basis of equality of marginal products and proportionality.
3) Perfect Equilibrium :
Demand and supply equilibrium leads to the fixing of commodity price and factor
prices.
4) Laissez-faire policy of the government :
There is no government intervention in the economic field. Laissez-fair policy
leads to automatic adjustment and smooth working of the market mechanism in
David Ricardo, "No man produces but with a view to consume or sell and he
never sells but with an intention to purchase some other commodity which
may be, useful to him, or which may contribute to future production. By
producing them, he necessarily becomes either the consumer of his own goods
i
Rate of S
Interest
i1
O Q Q1 X
Saving/Investment
1) Insufficient Aggregate Demand for Goods Produced :
The mass unemployment and prolonged recession of the 1930s, suggested that
production does not equal demand. In a recession, there can be insufficient
aggregate demand for goods produced.
2) Prices and Wages are not Flexible:
Prices and wages are not flexible. E.g. workers may resist nominal wage cuts.
3) Excess Savings:
There are examples where there is an increase in savings, and businessman and
consumers hoard cash. See: (Paradox of thrift) Say himself criticized Ricardo for
neglecting the possibility of hoarding if there are insufficient investment
opportunities.
4) Liquidity Trap:
In a liquidity trap the demand to hold cash is greater than the demand to spend.
Banks increase their reserves and the saving rate increases, this leads to a fall in
aggregate demand.
5) Confidence :
In certain circumstances, people may not have the confidence to spend and
invest. They may become risk averse and hoard cash in unproductive savings.
6) Rational to 'Hoard' Money:
It may be very rational to 'hoard' money - especially in a period of deflation or
anxiety.
7) Prolonged Recession :
The balance sheet recession of 2008-12, illustrated an example of where
banks, consumers and firms were keen to pay off their debts and not spend all
their income. This led to a prolonged recession.
8) Unrealistic Assumptions at Full Employment :
According to Keynes, the basic assumption of full employment itself is
unrealistic. An economy can be in a state of equilibrium. In under employment
situation also full employment equilibrium is just one possible equilibrium
condition according to Keynes.
9) Too much emphasis on Long Run :
Keynes gave importance to the short run According to him. In the long run, we
are all dead.
10) Keynes refuted Say's Law of Markets :
According to Keynes, the classical economists failed to examine the level of
aggregate demand. Supply may not create demand. according to Keynes. Supply
can exceed demand. Hence automatic self adjusting mechanism will not work.
11) Interest is not an Equilibrating Factor :
Keynes attacked the classical theory in regard to savings and investment. Flexible
interest rates will not lead to equilibrium savings and investment. Changes in
income bring about the equilibrium between savings and investment.
12) Role of Money is Neglected:
The classical economists considered money as a veil. Its role is neutral. Keynes
recognized the importance of precautionary measures and speculative demand
for money, also recognized the effect of money on output, incomes, employment.
13) Keynes Attacked the Laissez Faire Policy of Classical Economists:
In the conditions -of the modern world, state intervention is necessary to solve
levels of employment.
15) The Classical System will Work only if there is Perfect Competition:
In such a case there should not be trade unionism, wage legislation etc. But in
reality, all these factors exist. Hence classical theory will not become applicable.
Keynes offered this theory in 1936.
returns.
6) Labour is the only factor of production:
It is also the assumption of Keynesian Theory that in the short-period labour
alone is the variable factor of production. It means that with increase in the
number of laborers there is increase in output.
7) Labour has Money Illusion:
Keynesian Theory of Employment assumes that laborers have an illusion that
value of money remains constant. In other words, they believe that real wages
will also increase in the same ratio as the money wages do.
8) Money also acts as a store of value:
Keynesian Theory also assumes that money does not serve as a medium of
exchange alone; it also performs an important function of store of value.
9) No Time Lag:
Another assumption is that different economic factors get adjusted without any
loss of time. The period in which income increases is the period in which
consumption and investment also increase.
10)Under-employment Equilibrium :
Keynes assumes that equilibrium is possible even when there is under-
employment.
11)Saving and Investment Function :
Keynes' Theory is based on the assumption that saving is a function of income
i.e., S = f (Y). On the other hand, investment is a function of rate of interest, i.e.
I = f (r).
12)Interest is a Monetary Phenomenon :
As per Keynesian Theory, interest is a monetary phenomenon, meaning thereby
that it is determined by the demand for and supply of money. Demand for
money
is expressed by liquidity preference which, in its turn, depends on transaction,
precautionary and speculative motives.
Keynes proved this fact that supply
cannot create its own demand, and
there is no tendency of the
economy towards full employment.
If at any time aggregate demand
falls, then unemployment takes
places and if aggregate demand
increases then inflation takes place.
As regards the question of national
income and employment
determination it is determined by
the aggregate supply and
aggregate demand.
1) Aggregate Supply (AS) :
According to Keynes aggregate supply is equal to national income at market
price.
In other words national income is equal to the price of goods and services
produced in the country. The national income is divided into three parts,
consumption saving and taxes. So
A. S. = National income = Consumption
A A
+ Savings + Taxes or AS = Y = C + S + T
y 500
400
Expected 300
Revenue
200
100
45 F
o 100 200 300 400 500 x
Income
2) Aggregate Demand (AD)S
Aggregate demand is the amount of consumption and amount of investment
expenditure at each level of income.
The former assumption is the key difference between this approach and the AD/AS
approach. If we relax these 2 assumptions then the effects predicted by the model
will be moderated. However, making these assumptions allows us to study how the
model works.
The prospects of high levels of output and employment depend upon size of the
effective demand and not the rate of wages. Effective demand is the total monetary
expenditure of the community and is therefore a price. It depends upon two other
variables, namely, aggregate demand (ADP) and aggregate supply price (ASP).
Effective demand (ED) is then an equilibrium value determined at the point of
intersection of the ADP and ASP schedules.
A) Explanation:
In the above diagram income is measured along OX-axis and consumption
and investment along OY. OS curve shows the aggregate supply (45 degree)
or C + S line. C + I is the aggregate demand curve.
Aggregate demand and supply curves intersect each other at the point "M".
M is the point of effective demand and OP is the equilibrium level of
national income. If we assume that national income is greater than OP in
that situation new equilibrium point will be F. If total expenditure fall short
then the aggregate supply, the producer will also reduce the production.
Further income and employment will also reduce and again equilibrium will
be M.
B) Criticism:
1) In the under developed countries there are so many other factors which
are
responsible for unemployment, like over population and lack of skill.
2) Perfect competition is not found in real world.
3) In the long run its chances of success are limited.
4) It is not applicable in socialistic economy.
5) This theory was produced by the depression of 1930 and it is not applicable
His theory has several names: theory of income and employment, demand-side
theory, consumption theory, and macro-economic theory.
2) Completely Demolished the idea of Full-Employment ;
Keynes' theory has completely demolished the idea of full-employment and
forwards the idea of under-employment equilibrium. He states that employment
level in the economy can only be increased by increasing investment.
3) New Economic Tools and Techniques :
The new economic tools and techniques developed by Keynes have enabled the
today's economists to draw correct conclusions on the economic situation of a
country. Such tools are consumption function, multiplier, investment function,
liquidity preference, etc.
4) Integrated :
Keynes has integrated the theory of money with the theory of value and output.
5) Depict More Realistic Situation :
Keynes has first time introduced a dynamic economic theory, in order to depict
more realistic situation of the economy.
6) States the Reasons of Excess or Deficiency :
He also states the reasons of excess or deficiency of aggregate demand through
inflationary and deflationary gap analysis.
7) Applied to all types of Economic Systems :
Keynes' theory is a general theory and therefore, can be applied to all types of
economic systems.
8) Criticized Policy of Surplus Budget :
Keynes influenced on practical policies and criticized the policy of surplus
budget. He advocated deficit financing, if that sited the economic situation in
the country.
9) Emphasized on Suitable Fiscal Policy :
Keynes has emphasized on suitable fiscal policy as an instrument for checking
inflation and for increasing aggregate demand in a country. He advocated
extensive public work programmes as an integral part of government
programmes in all countries for expanding employment.
10)Control Cyclical Fluctuations :
He advised several monetary controls for the central bank, which in turn will act
as the instrument of controlling cyclical fluctuations.
11)Vital Role in Economic Development :
Keynesian theory has played a vital role in the economic development of less-
developed countries.
12)Rise Importance of Social Accounting :
Keynes' theory has given rise to the importance of social accounting or national
income accounting.
Keynes' economic thoughts are not completely flawless. Acknowledging it, Prof.
Harris, a great supporter of Keynes, has observed, "Even the most enthusiastic
imbibers the Keynesian fountain will find impurities and indigestible and
uncourageous substance." Main criticisms of Keynesian concepts are as follows:
1) The Concept of Equilibrium is Self-contradictory :
Keynes was of the view that in economy equilibrium was possible in less than
full employment level. According to him, so long as labour and other factors
are
not fully utilized, it is a big folly to think of equilibrium.
2) Keynesian Economics is Mainly Static:
Keynesian economic analysis is that it is mainly a static analysis. No doubt
Keynes directed the attention of the economists towards shifting equilibrium
but he did not clarify that when we move from one position of equilibrium to
the other how and in what way investment undergoes a change.
3) It has Ignored the Long Period Equilibrium :
Keynesian theory is a short-run economic analysis having no concern with long
period. It pays relatively more attention to short-run influences alone is not
only a serious and harmful mistake but is a matter of grave concern to
civilization.
4) Limited Scope :
Some socialist or communist economists had said that Keynes' theory is dead
if communism comes. However, even the socialist countries have strived to
raise their national income by using Keynesian theory.
5) Keynesian Theory Ignored Microanalysis :
Keynesian theory has ignored microanalysis and is not helpful in the solution
of the problems of individual firms and consumers.
6) Unrealistic assumption of Perfect Competition :
Keynesian economics is based on the unrealistic assumption of perfect
competition, like that of classical economics. But we know that in a real
economic world condition of perfect competition, is a figment of imagination.
7) Keynesian Theory is not a General Theory
This theory is neither a solution to all kinds of economic problems nor is
applicable to all kinds of economies. Keynesian Theory does not pay any need to
technical unemployment. and it does not apply to all countries.
8) Over-aggregative :
The basic concepts of Keynesian economics like, consumption, national income,
investment, aggregate demand etc. are over aggregative. This approach is useful
from the view point of simplicity, but it fails to throw light on those factors which
influence these basic concepts.
9) Ignores Cost Push Inflation :
Lord Keynes has explained demand-pull inflation in his theory but has completely
ignored cost-push inflation. After World War II, the main problem faced by the
countries of the world is cost-push inflation. However, Keynes has not accorded
any special significance in his theory to the analysis of inflation caused by
increase in the cost of production.
10)Economics of Depression :
Another allegation against Keynesian economics is that it seeks solution to the
problems of depression and unemployment alone. Hicks and Schumpeter are of
the view that Keynes had not properly studied the problems of boom and
inflation. But in reality this allegation is baseless.
One of the most important relationships in all macro economics is the
consumption function.
This concept is introduced by Lord Keynes which is based on hypothesis that there
is a stable empirical relationship between consumption and income.
In reality, consumption increases less than the increase in income. So the curve
showing consumption function will deviate from the 450(degree) Line. CC is such
curve. At lower level of income, consumption is greater than the income. It is
financed by way of borrowing or disserving. As income increases, consumption also
increases at OA level, consumption equals income. Beyond OA level, the gap
between consumption and income is widening. That is savings increase (Y - C = S.)
This has a significant implication in macro economics. Consumption function curve
can shift upward or downward showing increase and decrease respectively. The
point of intersection of OZ and CC curves is known as Break - even level of income.
At this point saving is zero. At all levels of income below the break - even level of
income saving is negative and at all the levels of income above the break-even level
of income-saving is positive.
1) Average Propensity to Consume (APC) :
APC is the ratio of the amount of consumption to total income. It is calculated
by dividing the amount of consumption by the total income.
C Here
C = Consumption Expenditure
APC = ----
Y Y = Total Income
2) Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) :
The concept of MPC is very important. From MPC we know how much part of
the increment in income is consumed and how much saved. MPC is the ratio of
change in consumption to the change in income.
APC will be constant only if the consumption function passes through the origin.
If it does not pass through the origin. APC will not be constant.
3) As income increases, MPC also falls, but it falls to a greater extent than the APC.
4) As income falls, MPC rises. APC also rises but at a slower rate.
According to Keynes, consumption function is
affected by two factors - subjective and objective.
A) Subjective Factors:
The slope and position of the consumption function are determined by the
subjective factors Human behavior regarding consumption function and savings
depend on psychological motives.
There are eight motives of Subjective Factors:
a) Motive of Precaution :
The desire to build up reserve against unforeseen contingencies
b) The Motive of Foresight :
The desire to provide for anticipated future needs i.e. education, old age etc.
c) The Motive of Calculation :
Refers to the desire to enjoy a larger income at a future date by way of
interest and appreciation.
d) The Motive of Improvement:
It is the desire to enjoy a gradually increasing expenditure, so that people can
1) Importance of Investment:
Keynes concluded that employment can increase only if the investment
increases. Investment therefore is regarded as a crucial factor determining
employment in the short run investment has to be sufficient to fill in the gap
between income and consumption if output and employment are to be
maintained.
2) Refutes the Say's Law of Market :
Keynes was able to invalidate the Say's law of market which was the basic
principle of the classical theory. Keynes showed the consumption expenditure
rises less than the rise in income.
3) Keynes Theory explains the Trade cycle Phenomenon :
Keynes consumption function provided a satisfactory explanation of the upward
and downward swings in the trade cycle. When the MFC is less than usual, the
economy is at the upper turning point.
4) MEC helps to Study the Nature of Income Propagation :
A very important implication is the need for government interference to remedy
the problems of overproduction and unemployment.
The saving function is the starting point of the Keynesian economics analysis of
equilibrium output determination using the injections-leakages model.
It captures the relation between saving by the household sector and income.
Because income is used for either consumption or saving, the saving function is a
complement of the consumption function.
Both reflect the fundamental psychological law put forth by John Maynard Keynes
that consumption expenditures (and saving) by the household sector depend on
income and then only a portion of additional income is used for consumption, with
the rest used for saving.
A saving function is a mathematical relation between saving and income by the
household sector.
The saving function can be stated as an equation, usually a simple linear equation,
or as a diagram designated as the saving line.
This function captures the saving-income relation, the flip side of the consumption-
income relation that forms one of the key building blocks for Keynesian economics.
The two key parameters of the saving function are the intercept term, which
indicates autonomous saving, and the slope, which is the marginal propensity to
save and indicates induced saving.
Depending on the analysis, the actual functional form of the equation can be linear,
with a constant slope, or curvilinear, with a changing slope. The most common form
is linear, such as the one presented here:
1) Slope:
The slope of the saving line presented here is positive, but less than one. In this
case the slope is equal to 0.25. Click the [Slope] button to highlight.
2) Intercept:
The saving line intersects the vertical axis at a positive value of -$1 trillion. Click
the [Intercept] button to highlight.
The saving function shows the relationship between the level of saving and
income. People divide their income between consumption and saving.
C = A + bY
Therefore,
S = -A + (1-b)Y, where (1-b) = MPS.
The two key parameters that characterize the saving function are slope and
intercept.
1) Slope:
The slope of the saving function (d) measures the change in saving resulting
from
a change in income. If income changes by S1, then saving changes by Sd. This
slope is generally assumed and empirically documented to be greater than zero,
but less than one (0 < d < 1). It is conceptually identified as induced saving and
the marginal propensity to save (MPC).
2) Intercept:
The intercept of the saving function (c) measures the amount of saving
undertaken if income is zero. If income is zero, then saving is Sc. The intercept is
generally assumed and empirically documented to be negative (c < 0). It is
conceptually identified as autonomous saving. It is often useful to state the
saving function using parameters for the consumption function.
Investment function refers to inducement to invest or investment demand.
In this type of situation, a function would be any variable within the framework of
the economy that would motivate investors to change their typical buying and
selling habits as a means of either taking advantage of the economic shift in a bid
to increase their returns or to minimize the amount of loss incurred as a result of
that shift.
1) Autonomous Investment:
Autonomous investment is the investment that does not change with the
changes
in the income level. It is independent of income. This investment is made in
houses, infrastructure, roads, etc. It depends upon population growth and
technical progress than the level of income. The investment undertaken by
Government in various projects like construction of roads, bridges, power
generation, etc. is of autonomous type.
2) Induced investment:
Induced investment is induced by the profit motive. It is affected by the changes
in the level of income. According to Keynes, rate of interest and expected rate of
E=Q/P
Where:
E=Marginal Efficiency of Capital
Q=Prospective Yield
P=Supply Price
a) Expectations about Future Demand and Price of the Product.
If the business community expects demand to increase in future investment
activity is stimulated and Marginal Efficiency of Capital is expected to be high.
b) Business Optimism and Pessimism :
If the businessmen are optimistic, they would estimate a higher Marginal
Efficiency of Capital, whereas, if the businessmen are pessimistic, Marginal
Efficiency of Capital will tend to fall.
c) Windfall Gains :
Any increase in come like windfall gains or any other factor resulting in
increase in income of the people may lead to an increase in Marginal
Efficiency of Capital.
d) Demand for Consumption Goods:
Increasing demand for consumption goods will lead to an increase in derived
demand for capital goods. This results in expectation of higher Marginal
Efficiency of Capital.
e) Changes in Population:
An increase in population will increase the demand for goods and encourage
investments in productive activities. As a result, Marginal Efficiency of Capital
may be expected to rise.
f) Change in Technology :
With the advancement in technology, production increases and there is an
increase in the Marginal Efficiency of Capital.
g) Development of Infrastructure :
A change in technology along with improvement in infrastructure tends to
increase production more efficiently and effectively. Obviously, this has a
positive effect on Marginal Efficiency of Capital.
2) Rate of Interest :
According to Keynes, The rate of interest is determined by liquidity preference
and the supply of money. Given the liquidity preference and the level of income,
the greater the supply of money, the lower will be the rate of interest. Rate of
interest is thus determined by the demand for and the supply of money.
3) Other Factors:
Other factors influencing investments are technological progress, conditions
prevailing in the economy, Government policy, availability of resources. As the
MEC is expressed as a rate or ratio, it can be compared directly with the rate of
interest.
It is important at the outset to be clear about the meaning of unemployment.
Full employment implies that all who wish to work at the existing level of wage rates
are employed. There are, to be sure, potential workers who choose not to seek
employment because wage rates are too low.
But such persons are said to be voluntarily unemployed, and the theory of
employment is not concerned with them; rather, it is concerned with involuntary
unemployment-with a situation in which there are workers who would be willing to
take employment at prevailing wages but cannot find it.
1) Over qualification:
Over qualification is the situation when individuals work in professions which
require less education, skill, experience or ability than they possess. In economic
terms, these agents are producing less than their socially optimal output.
Collectively, when a lot of individuals produce below their full potential, the
economy is in sub-optimal underemployment equilibrium.
2) Overstaffing :
Overstaffing refers to the state when firms in an economy are hiring more
people
then they need. This is much less common than over qualification. This
redundancy invalidates unemployment rates as a signal for the existence of
underemployment equilibrium. When firm are overstaffed, they cannot achieve
their maximum profit levels, which leads to undesirable social consequences
such as low GDP growth.
The Keynesian idea of "underemployment" equilibrium has been elucidated by
Professor Kurihara in terms of the following strategic functions in the Keynesian
theory of employment:
Kurihara points out that at a very low rate of interest, the liquidity function
becomes perfectly interest-elastic, which has two unhealthy influences:
1) It tends to discourage inducement to invest, by its depressing effect on the
marginal efficiency of capital or high rate of interest, which is essential to
overcome a strong liquidity preference of some people