Topic 2: Reliability Analysis

Reliability
 Reliability can be considered and defined as:
 something is fit for a particular purpose with respect to
time;
 the capacity of a facility or system to perform its
designed duty;
 the resistance of a facility or system to failure;
 that ability of a facility or system to perform its required
function under specified conditions for a specified period
of time;
 the probability that a functional unit will perform its
required function for a specified interval under stated
conditions.
 the ability of something to “fail well” (fail without
catastrophic consequences)
Reliability
 Reliability is also considered as the probability of
mission success
 E.g. reliability of a scheduled aircraft flight can
be specified as a dimensionless probability or a
percentage of successful flights
 For single-shot devices or systems that remain
relatively dormant for a long period and they are
required to operate once in a critical situation
(e.g. automobile airbags and missiles), the
reliability is specified as a probability of success,
or is subsumed into a related parameter.
Reliability theory
 Reliability is defined as the probability
that a system or facility will function
satisfactorily within specified limits for
at least a given period of time under
certain operating conditions.
Reliability theory - Cont.
 There are therefore four important
elements when talking about reliability
of a given system:
 Probability;
 satisfactory performance;
 minimum time; and
 operating conditions specifications.
 Elements of Reliability
 Probability indicates that reliability says
something about the ratio of actual operating
time to the specified period of operation.
 Satisfactory performance refers to the
meeting of certain criteria considered as
acceptable performance by management
 The element of time must be known in order
to arrive at the probability that a given
equipment functions as programmed.
 Specified operating conditions, are the
environmental standards such as
temperature and humidity.
 System reliability parameters
 There are various reliability parameters but the most
common one is the “Mean Time Between Failures” (MTBF),
which can also be specified as the failure rate
 The reliability parameters are useful for systems that are
operated frequently, such as most motor vehicles, industrial
facilities, as well as electronic equipment
 The relationship between reliability and MTBF is that
reliability increases as the MTBF increases i.e. the higher
the MTBF the higher the reliability of the facility
 Normally MTBF is presented using hours; however, it is
also possible to use other measurement such as kilometres
or cycles
 Reliability test requirements
 The testing for reliability requirements is a challenge for
several reasons:
 the testing of reliability requirement using a single test
is insufficient to generate enough statistical data on one
hand
 on the other hand the carrying of multiple tests or long-
duration tests is very expensive and it makes some
tests to become are practically impossible
 Under these circumstances, the function of reliability
engineering is to design a realistic and affordable test
program that provides enough evidence that the
system meets its requirement.
 Reliability test requirements
 Reliability engineers use statistical confidence levels to
address the concerns regarding the numbers of tests that
are required to be carried out to meet system requirements
 Usually a certain parameter is expressed along with a
corresponding confidence level:
 E.g. an MTBF of 2000 hours at 80% confidence level. That
MTBF is the system requirement for the reliability and from
this specification, the reliability engineer can design a test
with explicit criteria for the number of hours and number of
failures until the requirement is met or failed.
Reliability function
 is a function of time with the property
that 0  R(t)  1

1
R(t)

t
 Reliability function
 Let F(t) = the probability that the
system will fail by time t. Then:

R(t) = 1 - F(t) =  f(t)dt
t

Where F(t) is the probability that the system will

fail by time t, which can also referrred to as failure
distribution function
f(t) is the probability density function of the variables t
(i.e., for the time to failure)
Reliability Functions - cont
 Assuming that the time to failure is
described by an exponential function:
f(t) =  e- t

hence


R(t) =  e
t
 - t - t
= e
 Reliability function
 = is a constant
 From previous analysis we found that for
a negative exponential function 
represents an instantaneous failure rate
(Z(t))
 Further analysis will show that  =
1/MTBF.
 The mean time between failures (MTBF)
is the average of the lifetimes of a sample
of n similar items.
 Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)
 Engineering and Science studies use
block diagrams to elaborate and simplify
relationships of several components
 The block diagrams are used to describe
the interrelation between the
components and to define the system
 Block diagrams are also used in
reliability engineering to study the
functional relationships between the
components
Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)
 A reliability block diagram is a graphical
representation of the components of the
system and how they are reliability-wise
related
 The Reliability Block Diagram can be
considered as a logic diagram for the
system based on its characteristics
 The logic relationship is most of the time
not the same as the physical connection
of the components.
 Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)
 A system includes components,
subsystems and/or assemblies arranged
according to particular design for the
purpose of achieving desired functions
with acceptable performance and
reliability
 The types, the quantities, the qualities of
components and the way they are
physically arranged within the system
determine the system's reliability
 Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)
 to define the reliability of a system, it is important first to
define the reliability of group of components, sub-
systems and the sub-assemblies using block diagram
 The reliability engineer will then define the properties of
each block in a system
 When the blocks are connected in a reliability-wise
manner it is possible to get the reliability block diagram
for the whole system
 The Reliability Block Diagram provides a visual
representation of the way the blocks are reliability-wise
arranged
 Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)
 The reliability-wise arrangement of components is
directly related to the derived mathematical
description of the system
 The mathematical description of the system is the
key to the determination of the reliability of the
system
 In fact, the system's reliability function is that
mathematical description (obtained using
probabilistic methods) and it defines the system
reliability in terms of the component reliabilities
 Reliability Analysis
 Objective of the analysis of the reliability
of the system include the followings:
 Identification and removal of potential weak
points in the system;
 Identification of critical equipment;
 Processing of error and failure
relationships;
 Prognoses of the expected reliability of the
system; and
 Assurance of quality and reliability of the
processes
 Reliability Analysis
 The analysis of the reliability of the system answers
the following basic questions:
 What is the size of the reliability of the system
when the reliability of the components of the
system is known?
 What are the influences of the reliability of each
individual component on the reliability of the
whole system?
 What are the available possibilities for designing
of the reliability of the system and to increase the
reliability of an operating system?
 Methods for Reliability Analysis
 Methods available for analysis of the reliability of
the system can be grouped into qualitative and
quantitative methods
 Qualitative methods include risk analysis, system
and design Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
(FMEA)
 Quantitative methods include Boolean and Markov
models
 The Failure Tree Analysis (FTA), can as well be
grouped in qualitative groups as in quantitative
group
Methods for Reliability Analysis
 A systematic analysis of the reliability of system can be
performed using the methods shown on Figure below

Methods of Reliability A na lys is

Q ualitative Met hods Q uantitative Methods

Risk a na lysis B o o lea n M o d e ls

Syste m a nd Desig n FM EA M a rko v- M o d e ls

Ev e nts Process A na lysis

Failure T ree A nalys is

FM EA = Fa ilure Mode a nd Effects A na lysis

Reliability Component Relationship
 The overall reliability of a system is a function
of the nature of the relationship between its
component parts
 There are basically series networks, parallel
networks and a combination of these as
underlying the make-up of system
 These networks are used in reliability block
diagrams and in static models for predicting
and analysing the reliability of systems
Serial Networks
 A serial network must have all its
components in working order for the
overall system to function.
 Since the failure behavior of each
component is statistically independent
from that of the other then the reliability
of the system is the product of the
reliabilities for the individual component
 Serial Networks
In- A B Out-
put put

 R(t) = RA(t) x RB(t) for a two component system

 R(t) = R1(t) x R2(t) x R3(t) .... x Rn(t) for n series-
connected components
Serial Networks
 If it assumed that each component has
an exponential p.d.f. then
 R(t) = RA(t) x RB(t) = e-1t.e-2t = e-(1+ 2)t

 Note: since the magnitudes of RA(t) and

RB(t) < 1, then combined R(t) for a
series-connected system will always be
less than that of any individual
component
 Examples for Serial Network
 Suppose that an electronic system includes a
transmitter, a receiver, and a power supply.
The transmitter reliability is 0.8521, the receiver
reliability is 0.9712, and the power supply
reliability is 0.9357. Calculate the reliability of
the system
 A small plant is required to operate for 1000
hrs. It has four series-connected subsystems
whose MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures)
are 6000 hrs, 4500 hrs, 10500 hrs and 3200
hrs. What is the overall reliability of the plant.
(Assume neg. exponential function)
Solutions to the above examples

 Consider the serial combination of the

transmitter, receiver, and power supply
Trans. Rec. Pow.S

The overall reliability for the electronic system is:

= (0.8521)(0.9712)(0.9357) = 0.7743
Solution for the 2nd example
 Note i= 1 / M.T.B.F , therefore
 1 = 0.000167 failure/hr
 2 = 0.000222 failure/hr
 3 = 0.000095 failure/hr
 4 = 0.000313 failure/hr
 R = e- (i)x 1000 = 0.4507
 the probability of the plant operating for at
least 1000 hrs is 45%.
 If the requirement were reduced to 500 hours,
the reliability would increase to about 67%.
Parallel Networks
 Parallel networks have similar components
that have been arranged in parallel
 In a parallel network, all components must
fail in order to cause total system failure
Parallel Networks
 For the two component system, the
probability of system failure in time t, F(t) is =
FA(t) x FB(t). Hence
 R(t) = 1 - F(t) = 1 - FA(t).FB(t)
 = 1 - [1 - RA(t)].[1 - RB(t)]
 = RA(t) + RB(t) - RA(t)RB(t) for 2-
component system
 For n - components in parallel each with the
same R
 R(t) = 1 - (1 - R)n
Parallel Networks
 Parallel redundant networks are
principally used to increase the overall
reliability of a system
 For instance, assume that a system
includes two identical subsystems in
parallel and that the reliability of each
subsystem is 0.95
 Reliability (R) = 0.95+0.95- (0.95)(0.95)
= 0.9975
Parallel Networks
 Suppose that the reliability of the
system above needs improvement
beyond 0.9975.
 By adding a third identical subsystem
in parallel, the system reliability is
found from equation 3.9
 Reliability R = 1-(1-0.95)3
Combined series-parallel networks
 Various levels of reliability can be
achieved through the application of a
combination of series and parallel networks
Combined series-parallel networks
 With combined series-parallel
networks, computation of the overall
system reliability is obtained by first
evaluating the reliability of the
redundant (parallel) elements. Then the
overall reliability is computed by finding
the product of the "equivalent" series
quantities
 Reliability Planning
 Reliability is an intrinsic characteristic of the
design of a system; it must be planned,
determined, and specified as part of the overall
planning of the system.
 Part of the reliability planning exercise:
 Establish the quantitative and qualitative reliability
requirements for the system
 Assign the established requirements to the
subsystem level and beyond
 Use variety of design procedures, techniques and
practices to ensure that components have the
necessary reliability level (or M.T.B.F)
Reliability Planning
 Analyse the reliability of the resultant network of
components with the help of block-diagrams,
mathematical models, stress-strength analysis
(i.e. stress-strength relationship under severe
loading conditions - dynamic, shock, high
temperature, worst-case analyses, etc.)
 Establish different ways in which components in
the resultant system can fail and the effects of
these failures on other elements of the system
 Perform reliability predictions and assessment,
as more and more engineering data is made
available
Reliability Planning
 Consider the effects on reliability of storage,
packaging, transportation, handling,
maintenance, etc.
 Perform Critical-useful Life Analyses (CLA)
- During the design phase, critical items are
listed along with their expected life in terms
of calendar time, operating cycles, or
system operating hours.
 Perform formal design reviews, focusing on
the evaluation of the characteristics of the
system and its elements as to see how they
meet the initially specified reliability
requirements for the system
Reliability Planning
 Conduct reliability test and evaluation
to see whether the system meets the
specified MTBF requirements
 Once the system is put to commercial
or actual routine operations, evaluate
the reliability of the systems to obtain
"operational reliability“ of the system
 Reliability Centred Maintenance
(RCM)
 RCM is a systematic analysis whereby
the system is evaluated in terms of
possible failures, the consequences of
these failures, and the recommended
maintenance in case of failure
 The objective is to design a preventive
maintenance according to possible
failure consequences
 Reliability Centred Maintenance
(RCM)
 The RCM analysis is very similar to the
Failure Mode and Criticality Analysis -
FMECA
 RCM should be accomplished in
conjunction with the FMECA, and
should constitute a major data input for
the Logistic Support Analysis (LSA)
 RCM Characteristics
 RCM is characterized by the following
features:
 The primary objective of RCM is to preserve
system function
 The failure modes that cause functional failure
need to be identified
 The failure modes need to be prioritized to reflect
their importance to the system function
 RCM offers a sound framework for optimizing
the maintenance effort and getting the
maximum out of the resources committed to
the PM program
 Design for reliability
 Reliability engineering is coming with a new
phenomenon, which is “Design for Reliability
(DfR)”
 DfR is an up-and-coming discipline that insists
that reliability must be designed into products.
 DfR process comprises several tools and
practices and describes the order of their
deployment in order to ensure that an
organisation has in place the necessary items
that will help them to put reliability into the
products
 Design for reliability
 The first step in the DfR process is to set
the system’s reliability requirements.
 Reliability must be "designed in" to the
system
 During system design, the top-level
reliability requirements are then allocated
to subsystems.
 Design for reliability
 Reliability design commences with the development of a
reliability model
 A reliability model is developed using block diagrams and
fault trees to show graphical the relationships between
different components of the system
 The reliability models incorporate predictions based on
parts-count failure rates obtained from historical data
 Although the predictions are often not accurate in every
aspect but they are useful in facilitating an assessment of
relative differences in design alternatives
Design for reliability
 Design for reliability
 One of the most important design techniques is
redundancy.
 In redundancy the system is designed with an extra
subsystem such that when one part of the system
fails, there is an alternate success path, such as a
backup system.
 Redundancy increases system reliability
tremendously, and is often the only viable means of
doing so.
 However, redundancy is difficult and expensive,
and is therefore limited to critical parts of the
system
Design for reliability
 Physics of Failure (PoF) is another design
technique that requires the understanding
of the physical processes of stress, strength
and failure at a very detailed level
 Then the material or component can be re-
designed to reduce the probability of
failure once their physics are known
Design for reliability
 Component derating is a common design
technique in which the designer selects
components whose tolerance significantly
exceeds the expected stress
 E.g. in electrical systems when one uses a
heavier gauge wire that exceeds the normal
specification for the expected electrical
current is using component derating
bath-tub-curve
 The challenge to maintenance
managers is to establish a bath-tub
curve for all key equipment and then to
decide on the most appropriate
maintenance policies to be adopted
when the equipment is in any one of
the three regions (A, B, or C).
bath-tub-curve
bath-tub-curve
 Region A represents a decreasing failure rate
 This is sometimes referred to as the burning-
in period. Failure rate in this period is due to
manufacturing and/or installation defects
 Failure behavior in this region can be
modeled by the hyper-exponential p.d.f
since the Z(t) of this p.d.f decreases with
time
bath-tub-curve
 Region B is the normal operation phase
 In this case the failure rate is constant.
Failures here are randomly distributed
over time since they occur purely due
to chance
 The negative exponential pdf is
applicable to the modeling of behavior
of equipment in this phase of operation
bath-tub-curve
 Region C is the so called "wear-out"
region
 failure rate is increasing with time due
to aging factors
 Failure behavior in this region can be
modeled by either the Normal DF or the
Weibull DF