Probability and Probability

Distributions

MEKIDIM K
 outline
Probability
 Definition of Probability and related terms
 Categories of Probability
 Properties of probability
 Basic Probability Rules
 Conditional probability
Probability distribution
 The Binomial distribution
 The Normal distribution
 Standard normal distribution
2
 Learning Objectives
At the end of this chapter, the student will be able to:
1. Understand the concepts and characteristics of
probabilities and probability distributions
2. Compute probabilities of events and conditional
probabilities
3. Differentiate between the binomial and normal
distributions
4. Understand the concepts and uses of the standard
normal distribution
 Probability
• Chance of observing a particular outcome
• Likelihood of an event

• Assumes a “stochastic” or “random” process:

i.e.. the outcome is not predetermined - there
is an element of chance

• An outcome is a specific result of a single

trial of a probability experiment.
• Probability theory developed from the study of
games of chance like dice and cards.

• A process like flipping a coin, rolling a die or

drawing a card from a deck are probability
experiments.
 Why Probability in Statistics?
• Results are not certain
• To evaluate how accurate our results are:
– Given how our data were collected, are our results
accurate ?
– Given the level of accuracy needed, how many
observations need to be collected ?
 When can we talk about probability ?
• When dealing with a process that has an
undefined outcome

• Experiment = any process with an uncertain

outcome

• When an experiment is performed, one and only

one outcome is obtained
• Event = something that may happen or not
when the experiment is performed

• An event either occurs or it does not occur

• Events are represented by uppercase letters

such as A, B, and C
• Probability of an Event
• E = a number between 0 and 1 representing the
proportion of times that event E is expected to
happen when the experiment is done over and
over again under the same conditions

• Any event can be expressed as a subset of

the set of all possible outcomes (S)

S = set of all possible outcomes

P(S) = 1
 Why Probability in Medicine?
• Because medicine is an inexact science,
physicians seldom predict an outcome with
absolute certainty.
• E.g., to formulate a diagnosis, a physician must
rely on available diagnostic information about a
patient
– History and physical examination
– Laboratory investigation, X-ray findings, ECG, etc
• Although no test result is absolutely accurate, it does
affect the probability of the presence (or absence) of a
disease.
– Sensitivity and specificity

• An understanding of probability is fundamental for

quantifying the uncertainty that is inherent in the
decision-making process
• Probability theory is a foundation for
statistical inference, &
• Allows us to draw conclusions about a
population of patients based on information
obtained from a sample of patients drawn
from that population.
More importantly probability theory is used to
understand:
– About probability distributions: Binomial,
Poisson, and Normal Distributions
– Sampling and sampling distributions
– Estimation
– Hypothesis testing
– Advanced statistical analysis
 Two Categories of Probability
• Objective and Subjective Probabilities.

• Objective probability
1) Classical probability and
2) Relative frequency probability.
 Classical Probability
• If there are n equally likely possibilities, of which
one must occur and m are regarded as favorable, or
as a “success,” then the probability of a “success” is
m/n.
• Rolling a die -There are 6 possible outcomes:
– Total ways = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
• Each is equally likely
– P(i) = 1/6, i=1,2,...,6.
 P(1) = 1/6
 P(2) = 1/6
 …….
 P(6) = 1/6
SUM = 1
• Definition: If an event can occur in N mutually
exclusive and equally likely ways, and if m of
these posses a characteristic, E, the probability
of the occurrence of E = m/N.

P(E)= the probability of E = P(E) = m/N

• If we toss a die, what is the probability of 4

coming up?
m = 1(which is 4) and N = 6
The probability of 4 coming up is 1/6.
• Another “equally likely” setting is the
tossing of a coin –
– There are 2 possible outcomes in the set of all
possible outcomes {H, T}.
P(H) = 0.5
P(T) = 0.5
SUM = 1
 Relative Frequency Probability
• In the long run process …..
• The proportion of times the event A occurs — in
a large number of trials repeated under essentially
identical conditions

• Definition: If a process is repeated a large number of

times (n), and if an event with the characteristic E
occurs m times, the relative frequency of E,
Probability of E = P(E) = m/n.
• If you toss a coin 100 times and head comes
up 40 times,
P(H) = 40/100 = 0.4.

• If we toss a coin 10,000 times and the head

comes up 5562,
P(H) = 0.5562.
• Therefore, the longer the series and the longer sample size,
the closer the estimate to the true value.
• Since trials cannot be repeated an infinite
number of times, theoretical probabilities are
often estimated by empirical probabilities
based on a finite amount of data

• Example:
Of 158 people who attended a dinner party, 99
were ill.
P (Illness) = 99/158 = 0.63 = 63%.
• In 1998, there were 2,500,000 registered live
births; of these, 200,000 were LBW infants.

• Therefore, the probability that a newborn is

LBW is estimated by
P (LBW) = 200,000/2,500,000
= 0.08
 Subjective Probability
• Personalistic (represents one’s degree of belief in the
occurrence of an event).

• Personal assessment of which is more effective to

provide cure – traditional/modern

• Personal assessment of which sports team will win a

match.

• Also uses classical and relative frequency methods to

assess the likelihood of an event.
• E.g., If someone says that he is 95% certain that
a cure for AIDS will be discovered within 5
years, then he means that:

P(discovery of cure for AIDS within 5 years) =

95% = 0.95

• Although the subjective view of probability has enjoyed

increased attention over the years, it has not fully accepted by
scientists.
 Mutually Exclusive Events
 Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if
they cannot both happen at the same time
P (A ∩ B) = 0
• Example:
– A coin toss cannot produce heads and tails
simultaneously.
– Weight of an individual can’t be classified
simultaneously as “underweight”, “normal”,
“overweight”
 Independent Events
• Two events A and B are independent if the
probability of the first one happening is the
same no matter how the second one turns out.
OR. The outcome of one event has no effect on the occurrence or non-
occurrence of the other.
P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B) (Independent events)
P(A∩B) ≠ P(A) x P(B) (Dependent events)

Example:
– The outcomes on the first and second coin tosses
are independent
 Intersection, and union
• The intersection of two events A and B, A ∩ B, is the
event that A and B happen simultaneously
P ( A and B ) = P (A ∩ B )
• Let A represent the event that a randomly selected
newborn is LBW, and B the event that he or she is
from a multiple birth

• The intersection of A and B is the event that the infant

is both LBW and from a multiple birth
• The union of A and B, A U B, is the event that
either A happens or B happens or they both
happen simultaneously
P ( A or B ) = P ( A U B )
• In the example above, the union of A and B is
the event that the newborn is either LBW or
from a multiple birth, or both
 Properties of Probability
1. The numerical value of a probability always lies
between 0 and 1, inclusive.
0  P(E)  1
 A value 0 means the event can not occur
 A value 1 means the event definitely will occur
 A value of 0.5 means that the probability that the
event will occur is the same as the probability that it
will not occur.
2. The sum of the probabilities of all mutually
exclusive outcomes is equal to 1.
P(E1) + P(E2 ) + .... + P(En ) = 1.

3. For two mutually exclusive events A and B,

P(A or B ) = P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B).

If not mutually exclusive:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
4. The complement of an event A, denoted by Ā or
Ac, is the event that A does not occur

• Consists of all the outcomes in which event A

does NOT occur
P(Ā) = P(not A) = 1 – P(A)
• Ā occurs only when A does not occur.
• These are complementary events.
• In the example, the complement of A is the
event that a newborn is not LBW
• In other words, A is the event that the child
weighs 2500 grams at birth

P(Ā) = 1 − P(A)
P(not low bwt) = 1 − P(low bwt)
= 1− 0.076
= 0.924
Basic Probability Rules
1. Addition rule
 If events A and B are mutually exclusive:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
P(A and B) = 0
 More generally:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
P(event A or event B occurs or they both occur)
Mutually exclusive events and the additive law

• Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if

they have no elements in common.
• If A and B are outcomes of an experiment they
cannot both happen at the same time.
• That is, the occurrence of A precludes the
occurrence of B and vice versa.
Mutually exclusive events and the additive law

• For example, in the toss of a coin, the event A

(it lands heads) and event B ( it lands tails) are
mutually exclusive.
• The additive law, when applied to two mutually
exclusive events, states that the probability of
either of the two events occurring is obtained by
adding the probabilities of each event.
• Thus, if A and B are mutually exclusive events,
Pr(A or B) = Pr (A) + Pr(B).
• Extension of the additive law to more than two events
indicates that if
• A, B, C… are mutually exclusive events,

Pr(A or B or C or…) = Pr (A) + pr(B)+ pr(C)

• Eg. One die is rolled. Sample space = S =
(1,2,3,4,5,6)
• Let A = the event an odd number turns up, A = (1,3,5)

• Let B = the event a 1,2 or 3 turns up; B = (1,2,3 )

• Let C = the event a 2 turns up, C= (2)

i) Find Pr (A); Pr (B) and Pr (C)

- Pr(A) = Pr(1) + Pr(3) + Pr(5) = 1/6+1/6+ 1/6 = 3/6 = 1/2

- Pr(B) = Pr(1) + pr(2) + Pr(3) = 1/6+1/6+1/6 = 3/6 = ½

- Pr ( C ) = Pr(2) = 1/6
ii) Are A and B; A and C; B and C mutually
exclusive?

- A and B are not mutually exclusive. Because they

have the elements 1 and 3 in common

- similarly, B and C are not mutually exclusive.

They have the element 2 in common.

- A and C are mutually exclusive. They don’t have

any element in common
Example: The probabilities below represent years of
schooling completed by mothers of newborn infants
• What is the probability that a mother has
completed < 12 years of schooling?
P( 8 years) = 0.056 and
P(9-11 years) = 0.159
• Since these two events are mutually
exclusive,
P( 8 or 9-11) = P( 8 U 9-11)
= P( 8) + P(9-11)
= 0.056+0.159
= 0.215
• What is the probability that a mother has
completed 12 or more years of schooling?
P(12) = P(12 or 13-15 or 16)
= P(12 U 13-15 U 16)
= P(12)+P(13-15)+P(16)
= 0.321+0.218+0.230
= 0.769
If A and B are not mutually exclusive events,
then subtract the overlapping:
P(AU B) = P(A)+P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
• The following data are the results of
electrocardiograms (ECGs) and radionuclide
angiocardiograms (RAs) for 19 patients with post-
traumatic myocardial confusions.
– 7 patients developed both ECG and RA abnormality
– 17 patients developed ECG abnormal
– 9 patients developed RA abnormal
P(ECG abnormal and RA abnormal) = 7/19 = 0.37
P(ECG abnormal or RA abnormal) =
P(ECG abnormal) + P(RA abnormal) – P(Both ECG and
RA abnormal) =
17/19 + 9/19 – 7/19 = 19/19 =1.
Note: The problem is that the 7 patients whose ECGs and RAs are both abnormal are counted twice
Example 2: Of 200 students, 98 are women, 34 are majoring
in biology, and 20 biology majors are women.
1.What is the Probability that the choice will be either biology
major or women?
Since not mutually exclusive, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A
and B)
P(Bio major or Woman)?
=P(Bio major) + P(W) – P(Bio major & Women)
= 34/200 + 98/200 – 20/200 = 112/200 = 0.56
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2. Multiplication rule
 If A and B are independent events, then
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

 More generally,
P(A ∩ B) = P(A). P(B|A) = P(B). P(A|B)

 P (A∩B) denotes the probability that A and B both occur at

the same time.

45
Conditional probabilities and the multiplicative
law
• Sometimes the chance a particular event
happens depends on the outcome of some
other event.
• This applies obviously with many events that
are spread out in time.
• Eg. The chance a patient with some disease
survives the next year depends on his having
survived to the present time. Such probabilities
are called conditional.
Conditional Probability
• The notation is Pr(B/A), which is read as
“the probability event B occurs given that
event A has already occurred .”

• Hint - When thinking about conditional probabilities, think in

stages. Think of the two events A and B occurring
chronologically, one after the other, either in time or space.
Conditional Probability
 Refers to the probability of an event, given that
another event is known to have occurred.
 Here “What happened first is assumed”

 When thinking about conditional probabilities, think

of the two events A and B occurring chronologically,
one after the other, either in time or space.
48
• The conditional probability that event B has
occurred given that event A has already
occurred is denoted P(B|A) and is defined

provided that P(A) ≠ 0.

 Example:
A study investigating the effect of prolonged
exposure to bright light on retina damage in
premature infants.

Retinopathy Retinopathy TOTAL

YES NO
Bright light 18 3 21
Reduced light 21 18 39
TOTAL 39 21 60
• The probability of developing retinopathy is:

P (Retinopathy) = No. of infants with retinopathy

Total No. of infants
= (18+21)/(21+39)
= 0.65
• We want to compare the probability of
retinopathy, given that the infant was exposed to
bright light, with that the infant was exposed to
reduced light.

• Exposure to bright light and exposure to

reduced light are conditioning events, events we
want to take into account when calculating
conditional probabilities.
• The conditional probability of retinopathy, given
exposure to bright light, is:

• P(Retinopathy/exposure to bright light) =

No. of infants with retinopathy exposed to bright light

No. of infants exposed to bright light

= 18/21 = 0.86
• P(Retinopathy/exposure to reduced light) =

# of infants with retinopathy exposed to reduced light

No. of infants exposed to reduced light

= 21/39 = 0.54

• The conditional probabilities suggest that premature infants

exposed to bright light have a higher risk of retinopathy than
premature infants exposed to reduced light.
 For independent events A and B
P(A/B) = P(A).

 For non-independent events A and B

P(A and B) = P(A/B) P(B)
(General Multiplication Rule)
 Example
• In a study of optic-nerve degeneration in Alzheimer’s disease,
postmortem examinations were conducted on 10 Alzheimer’s
patients. The following table shows the distribution of these
patients according to sex and evidence of optic-nerve
degeneration.

• Are the events “patients has optic-nerve degeneration” and

“patient is female” independent for this sample of 10 patients?
 Optic-nerve Degeneration
Sex
Present Not Present

Female 4 1

Male 4 1
 Solution
• P(Optic-nerve degeneration/Female) =

No. of females with optic-nerve degeneration

No. of females
= 4/5 = 0.80
P(Optic-nerve degeneration) =
No of patients with optic-nerve degeneration
Total No. of patients
= 8/10 = 0.80
The events are independent for this sample.
Exercise:
Culture and Gonodectin (GD) test results for 240
Urethral Discharge Specimens

Culture Result
GD Test No Gonorrhea Total
Result Gonorrhea

Positive 175 9 184

Negative 8 48 56
Total 183 57 240
1. What is the probability that a man has gonorrhea?
2. What is the probability that a man has a positive
GD test?
3. What is the probability that a man has a positive GD
test and gonorrhea?
4. What is the probability that a man has a negative
GD test and does not have gonorrhea
5. What is the probability that a man with gonorrhea
has a positive GD test?
6. What is the probability that a man does not have
gonorrhea has a negative GD test?
7. What is the probability that a man does not have
gonorrhea has a positive GD test?
8. What is the probability that a man with positive
GD test has gonorrhea?
 Probability Distributions
• A probability distribution is a device used to describe
the behavior that a random variable may have by
applying the theory of probability.

• It is the way data are distributed, in order to draw

conclusions about a set of data

• Random Variable = Any quantity or characteristic that

is able to assume a number of different values such that
any particular outcome is determined by chance
• Random variables can be either discrete or
continuous

• A discrete random variable is able to assume

only a finite or countable number of outcomes

• A continuous random variable can take on

any value in a specified interval
• With categorical variables, we obtain the
frequency distribution of each variable
• With numeric variables, the aim is to determine
whether or not normality may be assumed
– If not we may consider transforming the variable or
categorize it for analysis (eg age group)
 Therefore, the probability distribution of a
random variable is a table, graph, or
mathematical formula that gives the probabilities
with which the random variable takes different
values or ranges of values.
Random Variable
 Any quantity or characteristic that is able to assume a
number of different values such that any particular outcome
is determined by chance
 A random variable X is a numerical outcome of a random
experiment
 Every random variable has a corresponding probability
distribution.
66
 Probability distribution of a categorical variables

 The probability distribution of a categorical variable tells us

with what probability the variable will take on the different
possible values.

• That is, it specifies all possible outcomes of the categorical

variable along with the probability that each will occur.

E.g. Consider the value on the face showing up from tossing

a die. The probability distribution of this variable is

Value on Face 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 67
 Probability Distributions of a discrete variable

 A discrete random variable is a variable that can assume only

a countable number of value

e.g. No. of patients attending a health facility per day

 For a discrete random variable, the probability distribution
specifies each of the possible outcomes of the random
variable along with the probability that each will occur

68
The following data shows the number of families
with number of children

69
1.What is the probability that a family picked at random will be
one who has 3 children?
P(X=3) = 4/50 = 0.08
2.What is the probability that a family picked at random will be
one who has 3 or more children?
P (X≥3) = P(X=3) + P(X=4) + P(X=5)
= 4/50 + 9/50 + 6/50
= 0.38
3.What is the probability that a family selected at random will be
one who has 4 or fewer children?
P (X≤4) = P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) +P(X=4)
=11/50+20/50+4/50+9/50= 0.88
70
1. Binomial Distribution
 It is one of the most widely encountered probability
distributions.
 Consider dichotomous (binary) random variable

• success or failure

• dead or alive

• sick or well
71
 A binomial probability distribution occurs when

the following requirements are met:

1. The procedure has a fixed n number of trials, each of which

results in one of two mutually exclusive outcomes

2. The outcomes of n trials must be independent

3. The probabilities must remain constant for each trial

[P(success) = p].

72
 Binomial distribution, generally
 If you have only two possible outcomes in n independent
trials, then the probability of exactly X “successes”=

n = number of trials

n X n X
  p (1  p )
X 1-p = probability of
failure

X = # of
p = probability of
successes out
success
of n trials
73
Or

Where;

74
75
Represents the number of ways of selecting x objects out of n
where the order of selection does not matter.

76
Example 1:
1.Suppose we know that 40% of a certain population are
cigarette smokers. If we take a random sample of 10 people
from this population, what is the probability that we will have
exactly 4 smokers in our sample?

77
Solution
P=0.40
x=4
n=10
P(X=4) =10C4(0.4)4(1-0.4)10-4
= 10C4(0.4)4(0.6)6 = 210(.0256)(.04666)
= 0.25
The probability of obtaining exactly 4 smokers in the
sample is about 0.25.

78
Example 2:
2.Suppose that in a certain population 52% of all
recorded births are males. If we randomly select
five birth records from this population, What is the
probability that exactly 3 of the records will be
male?
Solution
P=0.52, x=3 , n=5

79
 In addition to the probabilities of individual outcomes, we can
also compute the numerical summary measures associated
with a probability distribution.
 The mean and variance values for a binomial distribution or
the average number of successes in repeated samples of n is
equal to
  np
V  npq
Example : From the sample of 1000 US population, there are
290 smokers, find the mean and standard deviation of the
 of smokers;
proportion

Mean=nxp=1000x0.29=290
_____________________
S.d = √1000(0.29X0.71) = 14.4 80
 Probability distribution of continuous
variables
 A continuous random variable X can take on any value in a
specified interval or range
 Under different circumstances, the outcome of a random
variable may not be limited to categories or counts.
E.g. Suppose, X represents the continuous variable ‘Height’
X = 170.1, 170.2, 170.3 etc.
 Because a continuous random variable X can take on an
unaccountably infinite number of values, the probability
associated with any particular one value is almost equal to
zero.
 Instead of assigning probabilities to specific outcomes of the
random variable X, probabilities are assigned to ranges of
values 81
 The Normal Distribution

 The normal distribution is used extensively in the

analyses of continuous variables and has an especially
important role in statistics.
 It has been found to be a good approximation for many
distributions that arise in practice.
 The normal distribution is completely described by two
parameters, referred as the mean μ (read as ‘mu’) and
standard deviation σ (read ‘sigma’). 82
• A normal distribution can have any mean and
any positive standard deviation.
• These two parameters, and completely
determine the shape of the normal curve.
• The mean gives the location of the line of
symmetry, and the standard deviation describes
how much the data are spread out.
 The formula that generates the normal
probability distribution is:
2
1  x  2
11 1 x  
22  
ff((xx)) ee for
for  xx

 22
7183  33..1416
ee22..7183 1416
 and
and are
arethe
thepopulation
populationmean
meanand
andstandard
standarddeviation.
deviation.

 The shape and location of the normal curve changes as

the mean and standard deviation change.

84
Properties of a Normal Distribution
• The graph of a normal distribution is called the
normal curve.
• A normal distribution has the following properties.
1. The mean, median, and mode are equal.
2. The normal curve is bell shaped and is symmetric
about the mean.
3. The total area under the normal curve is equal to
one.
4. The normal curve approaches, but never
touches, the x-axis as it extends farther and farther
away from the mean.
5. Between  -  and + (in the center of the
curve) the graph curves downward.
The graph curves upward to the left of  -  and to
the right of +  The points at which the curve
changes from curving upward to curving
downward are called inflection points.
6. Perpendiculars of:
± 1SD contain about 68%;
±2 SD contain about 95%;
±3 SD contain about 99.7%
of the area under the curve

87
Fig: Areas under the normal curve that lie between 1,2
and 3 standard deviations
yayehiradon
A each side of the mean88
89
 The standard normal distribution

 Since a normal distribution could be an infinite

number of possible values for its mean and SD, it is
impossible to tabulate the area associated for each and
every normal curve.

 Instead only a single curve for which μ = 0 and σ = 1

is tabulated.

 The curve is called the standard normal distribution

(SND).
90
 To find P(a < x < b), we need to find the area under
the appropriate normal curve.
 To simplify the tabulation of these areas, we
standardize each value of x by expressing it as a z-
score, the number of standard deviations it lies from
the mean m.

xx 
zz 

91
 The Standard Normal (z)
Distribution

 Mean = 0; Standard deviation = 1

 When x = m, z = 0
 Symmetric about z = 0
 Values of z to the left of center are negative
 Values of z to the right of center are positive
 Total area under the curve is 1.
92
Example
1.Assume a distribution has a mean of 70 and a standard
deviation of 10.
a. How many standard deviation units above the mean is a
score of 80?
Z =( 80-70) / 10 = 1
b.How many standard deviation units above the mean is a
score of 83?
Z = (83 - 70) / 10 = 1.3

93
1.Calculate Z score for blood pressure of 140 if the sample
mean is 110 and the standard deviation is 10
Z=X–μ
σ

Z = 140 – 110 / 10 = 3

94
NB

95
 Using normal table
The four digit probability in a particular row and column of Table gives the
area under the z curve to the left that particular value of z.

Area for z ≤ 1.36

96
e.g.1 calculate P(-1.20  z  1.36)

P(z 1.36)
P(z 1.36) == .9131
.9131

P(z
P(z >1.36)
>1.36)
== 11 -- .9131
.9131 == .0869
.0869

P(-1.20  zz  1.36)
P(-1.20 1.36)
== .9131
.9131 -- .1151
.1151
== .7980
.7980
97
2.What is the probability that z < -1.96?
1.Sketch a normal curve
2.Draw a perpendicular line for z = -1.96
3.Find the area in the table

4. The answer is the area to the left of the line P(z < -
1.96) = 0.0250
98
3. What is the probability that -1.96 < z < 1.96?

 The area between the values P(-1.96 < z < 1.96)

= .9750 - .0250 = .9500

99
4. What is the probability that z > 1.96?

 The answer is the area to the right of the line; found by

subtracting table value from 1.0000; P(z > 1.96) =1.0000
- .9750 = .0250

100
5.The weights of packages of ground beef are normally
distributed with mean 1 pound and standard deviation 0 .10.
What is the probability that a randomly selected package weighs
between 0.80 and 0.85 pounds?

P (.80  x  .85) 
P (2  z  1.5) 
.0668  .0228  .0440

101
6.What is the weight of a package such that
only 1% of all packages exceed this weight?

PP((xx ?)?)..0101
??11
PP((zz  ))..01
01
..11
??11
From
FromTableTable,, 22..33
33
..11
??22..33
33(.(.11))1111..233
233
102
7.The diastolic blood pressures of males 35–44 years of age
are normally distributed with µ = 80 mm Hg and σ2 = 144 mm
Hg2, σ = 12 mm Hg

• Therefore, a DBP of 80+12 = 92 mm Hg lies 1 SD above the

mean
• Let individuals with BP above 95 mm Hg are considered to
be hypertensive

103
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected male has a
BP above 95 mm Hg?

• Approximately 10.6% of this population would be

classified as hypertensive

104
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected male has a
DBP above 110 mm Hg?

Z = 110 – 80 = 2.50
12

P (Z > 2.50) = 0.0062

• Approximately 0.6% of the population has a
DBP above 110 mm Hg

105
c. What is the probability that a randomly selected male has a
DBP below 60 mm Hg?
Z = 60 – 80 = -1.67
12

P (Z < -1.67) = 0.0475

• Approximately 4.8% of the population has a
DBP below 60 mm Hg

106
d. What value of DBP cuts off the upper 5% of this population?
• Looking at the table, the value Z = 1.645 cuts off an area of
0.05 in the upper tail
• We want the value of X that corresponds to Z = 1.645
Z=X–μ
σ
1.645 = X – μ, X = 99.7
σ
• Approximately 5% of the men in this population
have a DBP greater than 99.7 mm Hg

107
 Table 1: Normal distribution
Area between 0 and z

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359
0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478 0.0517 0.0557 0.0596 0.0636 0.0675 0.0714 0.0753
0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871 0.0910 0.0948 0.0987 0.1026 0.1064 0.1103 0.1141
0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255 0.1293 0.1331 0.1368 0.1406 0.1443 0.1480 0.1517
0.4 0.1554 0.1591 0.1628 0.1664 0.1700 0.1736 0.1772 0.1808 0.1844 0.1879
0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224
0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549
0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852
0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133
0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389
1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621
1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3980 0.3997 0.4015
1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162 0.4177
1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319
1.5 0.4332 0.4345 0.4357 0.4370 0.4382 0.4394 0.4406 0.4418 0.4429 0.4441
1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890 108
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
Table 2: Student’s t-distribution
t table with right tail probabilities

df\p 0.40 0.25 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.0005

1 0.324920 1.000000 3.077684 6.313752 12.70620 31.82052 63.65674 636.6192

2 0.288675 0.816497 1.885618 2.919986 4.30265 6.96456 9.92484 31.5991

3 0.276671 0.764892 1.637744 2.353363 3.18245 4.54070 5.84091 12.9240

4 0.270722 0.740697 1.533206 2.131847 2.77645 3.74695 4.60409 8.6103

5 0.267181 0.726687 1.475884 2.015048 2.57058 3.36493 4.03214 6.8688

6 0.264835 0.717558 1.439756 1.943180 2.44691 3.14267 3.70743 5.9588

7 0.263167 0.711142 1.414924 1.894579 2.36462 2.99795 3.49948 5.4079

8 0.261921 0.706387 1.396815 1.859548 2.30600 2.89646 3.35539 5.0413

9 0.260955 0.702722 1.383029 1.833113 2.26216 2.82144 3.24984 4.7809

10 0.260185 0.699812 1.372184 1.812461 2.22814 2.76377 3.16927 4.5869

109
 Table 3: Chi-square table
Right tail areas for the Chi-square Distribution

d/\
.995 .990 .975 .950 .900 .750 .500 .250 .100 .050 .025 .010 .005
area

1 0.0000 0.0001 0.0009 0.0039 0.0157 0.1015 0.4549 1.3233 2.7055 3.8414 5.0238 6.6349 7.8794

2 0.0100 0.0201 0.0506 0.1025 0.2107 0.5753 1.3862 2.7725 4.6051 5.9914 7.3777 9.2103 10.596

3 0.0717 0.1148 0.2158 0.3518 0.5843 1.2125 2.3659 4.1083 6.2513 7.8147 9.3484 11.344 12.838

4 0.2069 0.2971 0.4844 0.7107 1.0636 1.9225 3.3566 5.3852 7.7794 9.4877 11.143 13.276 14.860

5 0.4117 0.5543 0.8312 1.1454 1.6103 2.6746 4.3514 6.6256 9.2363 11.070 12.832 15.086 16.749

6 0.6757 0.8720 1.2373 1.6353 2.2041 3.4546 5.3481 7.8408 10.644 12.591 14.449 16.811 18.547

7 0.9892 1.2390 1.6898 2.1673 2.8331 4.2548 6.3458 9.0375 12.017 14.067 16.012 18.475 20.277

8 1.3444 1.6465 2.1797 2.7326 3.4895 5.0706 7.3441 10.218 13.361 15.507 17.534 20.090 21.954

110
111